O'Connor: Bulls interested in Gobert and Mitchell Robinson

[Jimako10]

Myles Turner just got added to the trade market. That could be another good get, though he's got his own injury concerns as well.

[MrFortune3]

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Cool, give me Turner and we will be good to go.

[MGB8]

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Cool, give me Turner and we will be good to go.

3 way trade - Vuc to Houston, Wood to Indiana, Turner to Chi. Seeing more reports that Houston looking to move Wood, and Vuc makes sense as an elder statesman type player for the young bigs (and young team, generally). Wood might be interesting to Indiana if they are doing rebuild around Halli and such. Turner fits more of what Bulls looking for at the 5… if healthy.

[Dan Z]

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[Stratmaster]

Similar stats + obviously worse defense (and by the way, the defensive stats bear this out if you look) = unequivocally worse.
As in, Vuc was unequivocally worse, because he was otherwise similar but significantly worse defensively.

Moving forward, what I think is the Bulls center next year will be, in order of likelihood 1) Vuc, 2) Mitchell Robinson .... 47) Rudy Gobert.

Carter is better than Vuc now. He'll be better than Vuc next year. Both Vuc and Carter are way better than Mitchell Robinson, who isn't any good at all.

What defensive stats show this?

From stats.nba.com
Defending Spot Up shooting
Carter - 21.2% of Defensive Plays - 0.97 PPP
Vuc - 13.9% of Defensive Plays - 1.05 PPP

Defending Isos
Carter - 11.5% of Defensive Plays - 0.6 PPP
Vuc - 6.8% of Defensive Plays - 1.01 PPP

Defending Post Ups
Carter - 8.7% of Defensive Plays - 0.73 PPP
Vuc - 5.5% of Defensive Plays - 0.9 PPP

Overall defensive field goal % from Defense Dashboard/Overall and Tracking/Defensive Impact (the first number is Defended FG% on all shots, the second is shots at the rim. Both strongly in the direction of Carter)
Vuc gave up 48.8% / 63.8%
Carter gave up 45.5% / 57.4%

On this final number, a simple way to think about this is that there were 40 guys in the NBA last year who defended about 14 shots a game. The average DFG% for this group was 46.2%, with a standard deviation of 2.6. When we say Vuc was bad at this, we can quantify it by saying his 48.8% was a full standard deviation below the mean. Carter's 45.5% was slightly above average. Also worth noting that Vucevic was clearly targeted a lot. He defended 20 shots a game! Carter only defended 14.7, slightly below the average of 15.75.

Basically, the evidence is there that Carter is a good defender. Vuc is pretty below average.

Also, I should add that I probably wasn't giving Ayton enough credit in that post where I said he was roughly equivalent to Vuc defensively. He does pretty well by this measure... He defended about 16.3 shots a game at a DFG% of 44.3. So while some of his playtype numbers are roughly at Vuc's level, they all tend to be a bit better and the end result is he's significantly better in total even though no one aspect really stands out.

On the first 3 stats, the only one that is different enough to be consequential is the ISO'S.

Also, Vuc's percentages of defensive plays in all 3 categories are lower than Carters. To the point that it only accounts for 26.2% of Vuc's defensive plays. Yet they account for almost 50% of WCJ's defensive plays.

So where are the other 75% (Vuc) and 54% (Carter). Pull the other one Mate.

I also don't buy your inference that because Vuc defended more shots per game it was because he was targeted more. Vuc played roughly 12% more minutes each game, and had roughly 16% more shots defended. So adjusted, the difference is really about 3 shots defended and there can be all kinds of reasons for that other than him being targeted.

You need to be a bit cleaner with your stats.

All that said, I am not claiming Carter isn't a better ISO defender. He is. Vuc was still the better overall player.

In addition was more dependable than the younger Carter. I'm not sure what good the youth is when the old guy is overall a better player, is able to play significantly more games, and plays more minutes in those games.

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[Stratmaster]

Most Centers main offensive game is not 3 point shooting. You know this.

Vuc's offensive game for the majority of his career was not shooting threes either. Last year, Carter shot nearly as many 3s, and shot them at a slightly better efficiency. I'm not sure what you think this comment shows? Most three point shooters are also high efficiency players, because if you are half way decent, the three is a highly efficient shot. The raise in efficiency league wide correlates to the massive increase in three point shots.

I didn't make the comparison and claim one was unequivocally better last season. You did.

Yes, because one was unequivocally better. One is a plus defender and a more efficient offensive player, and has more or less the same counting stats. That guy is unequivocally better. He was better on both ends of the floor. Unequivocal isn't a magnitude phrase. I'm not saying Carter was 2x the player Vuc was (though I think he was much better), just that it was obvious he was a least a little better. There is no meaningful argument you can make that Vuc was better. The argument is just whether you think Carter was a little better or a lot better.

I didn't say anything about next year. Or the original trade. Or trade value. But since you keep moving back to that...

You brought up Carter was at his best and Vuc was at his worst. I mentioned trade value a second time, because you replied to a post where I discussed trade value. So I noted, if your comments were accurate (which I disagree with them) and that Carter was not better, but merely the same, that it wouldn't have impacted my overall argument which you replied to. If you don't want to discuss that overall argument that is fine, I don't need to discuss it further with you. I was pointing it out though because it was relevant to the post you replied to if you wanted to factor it in.

I would not trade Vuc for Carter straight up (of course, that isn't possible, but you brought up trade value) because I don't think it makes a whit of difference.

Let's say you are right that last year they were the same caliber player. Even under that scenario, it would be foolish not to want Carter given he costs half as much and is likely to improve and Vuc is likely to degrade. It may not make a huge difference, but Carter would still very clearly be more desirable even in the scenario you described.

I think the Bulls can do better than that. I also wouldn't give up Carter for Vuc in the position that the Magic are in. Obviously his youth and upside are more important to the Magic. So the trade comparison is really a moot point.

Maybe the Bulls can do better at center eventually, but you'd still take the better player today, whom would have more trade value while trying to upgrade.

Carter took roughly 75% of the 3's Vuc did on a per game basis. He took 214 for the season compared to 331 for Vuc.

WCJ would likely be lost offensively playing next to DDR. The thought of it makes me cringe. If the Bullsx are trying to win now, and they are, they are much better off with Vuc.

And again. Carter played 62 games (compared to 73 for Vuc) and 29 mpg (33 for Vuc) on the worst team in the NBA. On a good team he would be lucky to get 24 minutes. His numbers are fools gold.

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[Stratmaster]

I told ya'll - with Danny Ainge involved with the Jazz, there is no reasonable deal to be had with them, even if you're a fan of Gobert. Hard pass.

Vuc - Star caliber player
Coby - Young player with potential
Portland pick - future 1st rounder

We're cooking with gas. That said, I doubt that is what Ainge is aiming for. I think all that means is he won't trade Gobert or its posturing or he's going to take a pseudo-not-real-star like Vuc.

Wait. You can't call Vuc even a pseudo-star caliber player and then in the next breath claim Carter is better than him.



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[dougthonus]

Carter took roughly 75% of the 3's Vuc did on a per game basis. He took 214 for the season compared to 331 for Vuc.

Per 36 minutes, he shot 4.2 vs Vuc's 4.9. You are bending stats to make it look different, no one would ever seriously compare totals with uneven minutes played, especially while trying to make the point that Carter doesn't shoot as frequently. Per minute he's shooting at about the same rate. If you account for look quality, it would narrow the gap even further. If you account for teammates, probably further again.

WCJ would likely be lost offensively playing next to DDR. The thought of it makes me cringe. If the Bullsx are trying to win now, and they are, they are much better off with Vuc.

Why? Because he can't shoot? Well, last year, and we were comparing an actual year that happened, not a theoretical year that could have happened, neither could Vuc. Vuc was a worse shooter last year. He had an easier shot profile and shot at a worse percentage. Teams completely stopped guarding him at the three point line by the end of the season and dared him to shoot.

If we were comparing a theoretical Vuc that shot well, sure, I agree. However we are comparing what actually happened, and in reality, Carter was a better shooter.

And again. Carter played 62 games (compared to 73 for Vuc) and 29 mpg (33 for Vuc) on the worst team in the NBA. On a good team he would be lucky to get 24 minutes. His numbers are fools gold.

Vuc's numbers are also fool's gold. Literally, everything about him says "empty calories" player, including his entire career. There was a question about that prior to coming here, but it has been answered. It wasn't his lack of teammates holding him back.

He has a lot of counting stats at efficiency ratings that mean he should not be shooting and that he is negatively impacting his team.

The good news if Carter is a 24mpg player on a good team, he's paid like a 24mpg player.

I'm not generally a fan of net rating, but if you want to argue impact of the players on the floor and ignore the numbers that all say Carter was radically better but pretend his numbers were all empty calories then look at net rating. Carter was #1 on his team. His team played the best when he was on the floor and his +8.8 was a huge positive outlier. Vucevic's -3.7 was the worst on the Bulls outside of Ayo and Pat Williams, a huge negative outlier.

Again, I'm not a huge net rating guy, but it is attempting to be a qualitative number more than a quantitative one, and Vuc is absolutely destroyed in it. Probably because he's an awful defender whereas Carter is a good defender, and he's a very inefficient scorer while Carter is an efficient scorer. It isn't that complicated.

Your thought that you would rather have Vuc seems based on a Vuc that wasn't here. A Vuc that exists in theory but not reality.

[dougthonus]

I told ya'll - with Danny Ainge involved with the Jazz, there is no reasonable deal to be had with them, even if you're a fan of Gobert. Hard pass.

Vuc - Star caliber player
Coby - Young player with potential
Portland pick - future 1st rounder

We're cooking with gas. That said, I doubt that is what Ainge is aiming for. I think all that means is he won't trade Gobert or its posturing or he's going to take a pseudo-not-real-star like Vuc.

Wait. You can't call Vuc even a pseudo-star caliber player and then in the next breath claim Carter is better than him.

Hoping Danny Ainge and you have similar belief systems

[Stratmaster]

Carter took roughly 75% of the 3's Vuc did on a per game basis. He took 214 for the season compared to 331 for Vuc.

Per 36 minutes, he shot 4.2 vs Vuc's 4.9. You are bending stats to make it look different, no one would ever seriously compare totals with uneven minutes played, especially while trying to make the point that Carter doesn't shoot as frequently. Per minute he's shooting at about the same rate. If you account for look quality, it would narrow the gap even further. If you account for teammates, probably further again.

WCJ would likely be lost offensively playing next to DDR. The thought of it makes me cringe. If the Bullsx are trying to win now, and they are, they are much better off with Vuc.

Why? Because he can't shoot? Well, last year, and we were comparing an actual year that happened, not a theoretical year that could have happened, neither could Vuc. Vuc was a worse shooter last year. He had an easier shot profile and shot at a worse percentage. Teams completely stopped guarding him at the three point line by the end of the season and dared him to shoot.

If we were comparing a theoretical Vuc that shot well, sure, I agree. However we are comparing what actually happened, and in reality, Carter was a better shooter.

And again. Carter played 62 games (compared to 73 for Vuc) and 29 mpg (33 for Vuc) on the worst team in the NBA. On a good team he would be lucky to get 24 minutes. His numbers are fools gold.

Vuc's numbers are also fool's gold. Literally, everything about him says "empty calories" player, including his entire career. There was a question about that prior to coming here, but it has been answered. It wasn't his lack of teammates holding him back.

He has a lot of counting stats at efficiency ratings that mean he should not be shooting and that he is negatively impacting his team.

The good news if Carter is a 24mpg player on a good team, he's paid like a 24mpg player.

I'm not generally a fan of net rating, but if you want to argue impact of the players on the floor and ignore the numbers that all say Carter was radically better but pretend his numbers were all empty calories then look at net rating. Carter was #1 on his team. His team played the best when he was on the floor and his +8.8 was a huge positive outlier. Vucevic's -3.7 was the worst on the Bulls outside of Ayo and Pat Williams, a huge negative outlier.

Again, I'm not a huge net rating guy, but it is attempting to be a qualitative number more than a quantitative one, and Vuc is absolutely destroyed in it. Probably because he's an awful defender whereas Carter is a good defender, and he's a very inefficient scorer while Carter is an efficient scorer. It isn't that complicated.

Your thought that you would rather have Vuc seems based on a Vuc that wasn't here. A Vuc that exists in theory but not reality.

I agree with most of what you said. Except that "stats show Carter was radically better". Because they don't. Which brings us right back to where this started.

On the 3's, volume is volume. When Carter shoots 330 of them in a season, even at that paltry 32% he shot last season, I will believe he can be an outside threat. He is a 29.8% career shooter even after his "good" (I guess) 61 game shooting season. Vuc is a career 34.8% with two seasons right at 40%. So he has at least shown he CAN shoot 3's efficiently. While shooters may have a down season they usually don't forget how.

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[Stratmaster]

Vuc - Star caliber player
Coby - Young player with potential
Portland pick - future 1st rounder

We're cooking with gas. That said, I doubt that is what Ainge is aiming for. I think all that means is he won't trade Gobert or its posturing or he's going to take a pseudo-not-real-star like Vuc.

Wait. You can't call Vuc even a pseudo-star caliber player and then in the next breath claim Carter is better than him.

Hoping Danny Ainge and you have similar belief systems

Lol. I will put a bug in his ear.

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[dougthonus]

I agree with most of what you said. Except that "stats show Carter was radically better". Because they don't. Which brings us right back to where this started.

Fair enough, my first term was unequivocally, which doesn't imply magnitude, just clearly. I think their difference in offensive efficiency combined with Carter's considerably better defense also creates a larger magnitude than you do, but I don't need to die on that hill

On the 3's, volume is volume. When Carter shoots 330 of them in a season, even at that paltry 32% he shot last season, I will believe he can be an outside threat. He is a 29.8% career shooter even after his "good" (I guess) 61 game shooting season. Vuc is a career 34.8% with two seasons right at 40%. So he has at least shown he CAN shoot 3's efficiently. While shooters may have a down season they usually don't forget how.

Just to be clear, I don't believe Carter is a good outside threat. I just don't believe Vuc is either. Vuc shot 40% one year in his career. It's literally the only high volume, high accuracy year in an 11 season career. He's 34.8% for his career, and I think that's a fair guess at where I'd expect him to be next year. Just shooting 35% on predominantly wide open threes isn't really doing much for your team though.

I don't expect Carter to be a better shooter or meaningfully good shorter, and I don't want to give you that impression. I expect Carter to be a better defender and to draw more fouls and to be more efficient (considerably) overall, and I think those things are important. Carter on his deal in the NBA is a value asset and a guy you would want on his team. Like you said, he's a 24MPG guy but he's getting paid like one.

Vuc's shooting will be critical if he can get it back to 40%, that will actually create spacing on the floor and open up a lot of room on the offense. More so than how well he actually shoots, what will be telling is the amount of attention and spacing he creates. By end of last season it was very little, opponents just ignored him. He needs to turn that around to be impactful. Vuc probably won't be here more than next season, so I don't really care a whole lot about him one way or the other, but if he signed a 10M dollar deal for a few years as an extension, he'd also be fine as a role playing 24MPG guy.

[khufure]

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Cool, give me Turner and we will be good to go.

3 way trade - Vuc to Houston, Wood to Indiana, Turner to Chi. Seeing more reports that Houston looking to move Wood, and Vuc makes sense as an elder statesman type player for the young bigs (and young team, generally). Wood might be interesting to Indiana if they are doing rebuild around Halli and such. Turner fits more of what Bulls looking for at the 5… if healthy.

Yo I'm on board with Turner too. That dude is legit

[Stratmaster]

I agree with most of what you said. Except that "stats show Carter was radically better". Because they don't. Which brings us right back to where this started.

Fair enough, my first term was unequivocally, which doesn't imply magnitude, just clearly. I think their difference in offensive efficiency combined with Carter's considerably better defense also creates a larger magnitude than you do, but I don't need to die on that hill

On the 3's, volume is volume. When Carter shoots 330 of them in a season, even at that paltry 32% he shot last season, I will believe he can be an outside threat. He is a 29.8% career shooter even after his "good" (I guess) 61 game shooting season. Vuc is a career 34.8% with two seasons right at 40%. So he has at least shown he CAN shoot 3's efficiently. While shooters may have a down season they usually don't forget how.

Just to be clear, I don't believe Carter is a good outside threat. I just don't believe Vuc is either. Vuc shot 40% one year in his career. It's literally the only high volume, high accuracy year in an 11 season career. He's 34.8% for his career, and I think that's a fair guess at where I'd expect him to be next year. Just shooting 35% on predominantly wide open threes isn't really doing much for your team though.

I don't expect Carter to be a better shooter or meaningfully good shorter, and I don't want to give you that impression. I expect Carter to be a better defender and to draw more fouls and to be more efficient (considerably) overall, and I think those things are important. Carter on his deal in the NBA is a value asset and a guy you would want on his team. Like you said, he's a 24MPG guy but he's getting paid like one.

Vuc's shooting will be critical if he can get it back to 40%, that will actually create spacing on the floor and open up a lot of room on the offense. More so than how well he actually shoots, what will be telling is the amount of attention and spacing he creates. By end of last season it was very little, opponents just ignored him. He needs to turn that around to be impactful. Vuc probably won't be here more than next season, so I don't really care a whole lot about him one way or the other, but if he signed a 10M dollar deal for a few years as an extension, he'd also be fine as a role playing 24MPG guy.

I think he shot 40% one year and 39% the year before that, but I could be wrong. I'm waiting in the dentist chair right now.

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[dougthonus]

]I think he shot 40% one year and 39% the year before that, but I could be wrong. I'm waiting in the dentist chair right now.

His last few year: (percentage / attempts per 36 / my analysis)
2021/22: 31.4% / 4.9 Low efficiency / high volume - really bad
2020/21: 40% / 6.7 high efficiency / high volume - really good
2019/20: 33.9% / 5.2 low avg efficiency / high volume - low average
2018/19: 36.4% / 3.3 high avg efficiency / medium volume - high average
2017/18: 31.4% / 4.4 low efficiency / high medium volume - bad

[Guy]

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[d boy gentleman]

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I guess AK sees star potential in Pat and doesn’t want to give that up

[Dan Z]

This thread got me to look at Vucevics stats. He barely shot any three pointers until 2018 (when he was 27 years old). That season he shot .314 with 3.6 attempts per game. The next year (2019) he shot .364 with 2.9 attempts per game.

2019 is his first year that he made the all-star team. His three point shooting is a bit up and down overall, but hopefully he shows improvement next year.

Also interesting is that in 2018 and 2019 Orlando made the playoffs (lost in the first round both seasons) with bad rosters. His best teammate was Aaron Gordon.

[nomorezorro]

i don’t think you even have to see star potential in pat to want to keep him. if he’s make or break for a gobert deal, i’m leaning towards thinking it makes more sense to go for a robinson/poeltl type and hope that pat can make the modest step of becoming a solid two-way rotation wing, which has become an increasingly important piece for successful teams in the modern nba

[kodo]

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Jake Fischer has never been someone known to have inside sources to the Bulls org, much less AK.
Even Woj said he heard the Bulls are going to keep Jim Boylen as head coach.

KC & Darnell are the only sources I trust as actually having heard something from high up.

That being said, even if it's just speculation it's probably true. AK picked Patrick 4th when he was supposed to go 10-18, and he didn't bother signing any PFs to the team. It's clear AK thinks very highly of Pat.