Is Dalen Terry an NBA level player?

[rosenthall]

I will say that I am not a fan of comparing guys against trajectories of guys who became great players because it ignores the 99% of guys who had similar early career trajectories who ultimately were average or below.

I generally agree, but the comparison was about his upside as a prospect, and not who I think he's likely to turn out to be as an NBA player.

There's also the difference between whether those charts demonstrate that he's probably a good defender (they do), or whether he's likely to stick around in the league (they don't).

I'd guess most guys who have a defensive impact that tracks so cosely Robert Covington end up as good defenders, but that's not enough to mean they'll be important players. I'm sure David Nwaba and Shaq Harrison had great defensive impact numbers, but they still washed out of the league.

Terry has shown himself to be a good defender so far. He's been one of the notable hard workers, and I don't bet against those guys. That said he's a good 3pt shot away from being able to get consistent rotation minutes, but that doesn't appear to be an obstacle that will be easy for him to overcome.

I think everyone agrees that if DT doesn't improve his shooting he won't make it in the league. There are a lot of players who fall into that bucket who couldn't stick on NBA rosters.

[Guru]

I will say that I am not a fan of comparing guys against trajectories of guys who became great players because it ignores the 99% of guys who had similar early career trajectories who ultimately were average or below.

I generally agree, but the comparison was about his upside as a prospect, and not who I think he's likely to turn out to be as an NBA player.

There's also the difference between whether those charts demonstrate that he's probably a good defender (they do), or whether he's likely to stick around in the league (they don't).

I'd guess most guys who have a defensive impact that tracks so cosely Robert Covington end up as good defenders, but that's not enough to mean they'll be important players. I'm sure David Nwaba and Shaq Harrison had great defensive impact numbers, but they still washed out of the league.

Terry has shown himself to be a good defender so far. He's been one of the notable hard workers, and I don't bet against those guys. That said he's a good 3pt shot away from being able to get consistent rotation minutes, but that doesn't appear to be an obstacle that will be easy for him to overcome.

I think everyone agrees that if DT doesn't improve his shooting he won't make it in the league. There are a lot of players who fall into that bucket who couldn't stick on NBA rosters.

Name 1

Solid to elite defender. Great motor. Not a blackhole on offense.

[rosenthall]

I generally agree, but the comparison was about his upside as a prospect, and not who I think he's likely to turn out to be as an NBA player.

There's also the difference between whether those charts demonstrate that he's probably a good defender (they do), or whether he's likely to stick around in the league (they don't).

I'd guess most guys who have a defensive impact that tracks so cosely Robert Covington end up as good defenders, but that's not enough to mean they'll be important players. I'm sure David Nwaba and Shaq Harrison had great defensive impact numbers, but they still washed out of the league.

I think everyone agrees that if DT doesn't improve his shooting he won't make it in the league. There are a lot of players who fall into that bucket who couldn't stick on NBA rosters.

Name 1

Solid to elite defender. Great motor. Not a blackhole on offense.

Shaq Harrison was a solid to elite defender with a great motor who wasn't a black hole on offense. David Nwaba. Renaldo Balkman. Josh Jackson. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

All of those guys fit that description but didn't have meaningful careers. The big thing is you have to learn to shoot. I'm sure if those guys were able to get their 3P% up to 38% they'd have had 10 year careers, but they couldn't do it.

If Terry learns to shoot he can make it in the league. If he doesn't, he'll wash out like those guys did.

[Guru]

I think everyone agrees that if DT doesn't improve his shooting he won't make it in the league. There are a lot of players who fall into that bucket who couldn't stick on NBA rosters.

Name 1

Solid to elite defender. Great motor. Not a blackhole on offense.

Shaq Harrison was a solid to elite defender with a great motor who wasn't a black hole on offense. David Nwaba. Renaldo Balkman. Josh Jackson. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

All of those guys fit that description but didn't have meaningful careers. The big thing is you have to learn to shoot. I'm sure if those guys were able to get their 3P% up to 38% they'd have had 10 year careers, but they couldn't do it.

If Terry learns to shoot he can make it in the league. If he doesn't, he'll wash out like those guys did.

Why would playing 10 years be some litmus test of if you are an NBA player. 6 year NBA career and guys are wash outs....What is this.

[ChiTownHero1992]

I see Terry going the way of many other Chicago Greats....having a 5-6 year career and not being able to find a job afterward, we have a habbit of holding on to guys we think are NBA level only to find no one else in the league would want them

Denzel Valentine, Chandler Hutchinson, Christiano Felicio all come to mind

I will say, he has surpassed my original projections just barely, i thought he'd be on the same route as Marko Simonovic, Paul Zipser, Cameron Bairstow, Erik Murphy, etc (2 years and wash our hands of his "talents")

[sco]

Name 1

Solid to elite defender. Great motor. Not a blackhole on offense.

Shaq Harrison was a solid to elite defender with a great motor who wasn't a black hole on offense. David Nwaba. Renaldo Balkman. Josh Jackson. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

All of those guys fit that description but didn't have meaningful careers. The big thing is you have to learn to shoot. I'm sure if those guys were able to get their 3P% up to 38% they'd have had 10 year careers, but they couldn't do it.

If Terry learns to shoot he can make it in the league. If he doesn't, he'll wash out like those guys did.

Why would playing 10 years be some litmus test of if you are an NBA player. 6 year NBA career and guys are wash outs....What is this.

Now we haven't gotten any real updates on his offseason, but I haven't heard or seen that he's looked to rework his 3pt shot. Point being, it's pretty obvious to us that he's a 3pt shot away from sticking on this roster. But part of me thinks that the message wasn't conveyed to him and they had him focusing on things like ball handling instead.

[Michael Jackson]

I see Terry going the way of many other Chicago Greats....having a 5-6 year career and not being able to find a job afterward, we have a habbit of holding on to guys we think are NBA level only to find no one else in the league would want them

Denzel Valentine, Chandler Hutchinson, Christiano Felicio all come to mind

I will say, he has surpassed my original projections just barely, i thought he'd be on the same route as Marko Simonovic, Paul Zipser, Cameron Bairstow, Erik Murphy, etc (2 years and wash our hands of his "talents")

Denzel was just too slow. Hutch had no work ethic. Felicio well he was actually nowhere as bad as he was here. He was just fat and lazy after he got paid. Felicio and Denzel actually had skills. Not sure Dalen does but the kid is a hustler so the opposite of those mentioned.

[burlydee]

I think Terry becomes part of the rotation this season. The top 7 appears set - Vuc, P Will, Lavine, Coby, Giddey, Smith, Ayo. That leaves Matas, Craig, Phillips, Terry and Ball competing for two spots.

When everyone is healthy I expect Ball, Matas, Terry to get those minutes. But I don't expect everyone to be healthy. Ball is going to have a tough time readjusting to game speed. Matas is a raw rookie. Craig is a vet on the downslope. In an uptempo offense with scorers at other positions, I think Terry settles in as a versatile defender, 1-4. His passing and floor game are already pretty good. He needs to be able to hit corner 3s and act as a secondary creator on the weak side. He does that, he'll get PT. He's the Bulls best perimeter defender. He'll get chances this season.

[dougthonus]

Solid to elite defender. Great motor. Not a blackhole on offense.

Alex Caruso is an elite defender. Dalen Terry is an okay energy defender. He doesn't know what he's doing as a team defender and makes tons of egregious defensive errors at this point. He's definitely high motor and certainly not a black hole on offense because he has absolutely no meaningful offensive skills whatsoever.

He's presently something like a less athletic, lower IQ, worse shooting version of Javonte Green (whom is a barely hanging on in the league, vet min guy). He's probably a better ball handler / passer, but he doesn't have enough of an offensive package to make use of either of those things in any meaningful capacity.

He's young and hasn't played much which will explain a lot of the defensive miscues as they're common for people without much playing time. Maybe if he works hard he'll continue to take steps forward, he's still got 2 more years at least to show he has something, but he's got a long ways to go.

[rosenthall]

Shaq Harrison was a solid to elite defender with a great motor who wasn't a black hole on offense. David Nwaba. Renaldo Balkman. Josh Jackson. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

All of those guys fit that description but didn't have meaningful careers. The big thing is you have to learn to shoot. I'm sure if those guys were able to get their 3P% up to 38% they'd have had 10 year careers, but they couldn't do it.

If Terry learns to shoot he can make it in the league. If he doesn't, he'll wash out like those guys did.

Why would playing 10 years be some litmus test of if you are an NBA player. 6 year NBA career and guys are wash outs....What is this.

Now we haven't gotten any real updates on his offseason, but I haven't heard or seen that he's looked to rework his 3pt shot. Point being, it's pretty obvious to us that he's a 3pt shot away from sticking on this roster. But part of me thinks that the message wasn't conveyed to him and they had him focusing on things like ball handling instead.

Two things I found were some videos of him and Coby at an NBA Open Run:

Watch on YouTube

And there's this puff piece about his offseason:

Watch on YouTube

I don't think you can take a lot from either of these pieces, but in the second one it says he's been working out 2-3x per day, and it mentioned his jumpshot was a major point of emphasis in the offseason.

But ultimately these videos tell you very little. We'll have to see how he looks when the season starts.

[sco]

Why would playing 10 years be some litmus test of if you are an NBA player. 6 year NBA career and guys are wash outs....What is this.

Now we haven't gotten any real updates on his offseason, but I haven't heard or seen that he's looked to rework his 3pt shot. Point being, it's pretty obvious to us that he's a 3pt shot away from sticking on this roster. But part of me thinks that the message wasn't conveyed to him and they had him focusing on things like ball handling instead.

Two things I found were some videos of him and Coby at an NBA Open Run:

Watch on YouTube

And there's this puff piece about his offseason:

Watch on YouTube

I don't think you can take a lot from either of these pieces, but in the second one it says he's been working out 2-3x per day, and it mentioned his jumpshot was a major point of emphasis in the offseason.

But ultimately these videos tell you very little. We'll have to see how he looks when the season starts.

Good stuff. Thanks. Agree with your take, but some nice highlights for him in the first one.

[DASMACKDOWN]

Its been 2 seasons and 7 games.

I still don't know more about Dalen then when he first got drafted.

I don't know if he is the next Thabo or the next Hutchinson.

There are clearly things that can be intriguing about Dalen.

He is a jack of all trades but not remotely good at anything. Ok I will give he is a solid defender.

I will give that under Billy, roles are rather weird in his system. Especially if its in limited time. And right now, he will be sharing minutes with Lonzo.

My thing is this year, find out what Dalen is. It doesnt make sense offering another QU if he still doesnt have a role on the team and looks iffy doing it.

[MrSparkle]

Its been 2 seasons and 7 games.

I still don't know more about Dalen then when he first got drafted.

I don't know if he is the next Thabo or the next Hutchinson.

There are clearly things that can be intriguing about Dalen.

He is a jack of all trades but not remotely good at anything. Ok I will give he is a solid defender.

I will give that under Billy, roles are rather weird in his system. Especially if its in limited time. And right now, he will be sharing minutes with Lonzo.

My thing is this year, find out what Dalen is. It doesnt make sense offering another QU if he still doesnt have a role on the team and looks iffy doing it.

All I know is I'm ready to see the Bulls tank with Terry and Matas playing a lot of minutes. If both these guys need to move to Shanghai, then I'd rather know sooner than later.

[sco]

Its been 2 seasons and 7 games.

I still don't know more about Dalen then when he first got drafted.

I don't know if he is the next Thabo or the next Hutchinson.

There are clearly things that can be intriguing about Dalen.

He is a jack of all trades but not remotely good at anything. Ok I will give he is a solid defender.

I will give that under Billy, roles are rather weird in his system. Especially if its in limited time. And right now, he will be sharing minutes with Lonzo.

My thing is this year, find out what Dalen is. It doesnt make sense offering another QU if he still doesnt have a role on the team and looks iffy doing it.

All I know is I'm ready to see the Bulls tank with Terry and Matas playing a lot of minutes. If both these guys need to move to Shanghai, then I'd rather know sooner than later.

I am still rooting for Terry to develop a shot this season, he seems to work his butt off in the off season. That said, I don't see any shot improvement (although his handle has definitely improved).

IMO Terry will fall out of the rotation after Ball/Zach return. Beyond Matas, the next guy I want to see play is Duarte. IMO he is a legit backup 3 who is probably keepable on a min deal.

[The Explorer]

I would say yes. He still has no perimeter shot, but as a hustle defensive player, I think he could be a poor man's Alex Caruso. Donovan's been entrusting him with ball handling duties and he hasn't screwed up thus far. But the fact that he's in his 3rd year now and still can't shoot even average from 3 is concerning.

[dougthonus]

Why would playing 10 years be some litmus test of if you are an NBA player. 6 year NBA career and guys are wash outs....What is this.

I wouldn't focus on years, a better gauge would be the role / minutes they played over a length of time. Lots of guys even with 10 year careers are not meaningful players.

If the question is can Dalen Terry hang around the league on vet min deals grabbing non rotation minutes as a defensive specialist for a decade, the answer might be yes, but no one evaluating Dalen Terry is going to care about him if the future is replacement level player filling a defensive specialist role.

So implicitly the question is not about years, but how big of a role could a guy like Terry play on a good team. Generally, if you aren't able to add much on offense, the bar is very high to play a meaningful role as a pure defender and also requires a very specific set of teammates and niche to fit into, but there are certainly guys who have made careers out of that.

Maybe a comparison would be someone like Gary Payton II. On a team with a bunch of offensive juggernaut players, Payton carved out a pretty useful role for a year or so but is mostly just barely hanging on.

[Chi town]

Never has been and won’t be a NBA rotation player.

Once Zo is back DNPs will be DT’s game.

I like the kid but he has added nothing to his game and it seems his shooting has gotten worse.

[GoBlue72391]

Dalen Terry is basically a taller, younger Shaq Harrison.

A hustling, try-hard defensive-oriented jack of all trades who can play and defend 4 positions. That archetype is an end-of-the-roster player, but if that archetype ever becomes an average 3-point shooter then that raises the ceiling to solid rotation player.

[Guru]

yes

[sco]

I think that DT has 5th starter potential. He was already a good defender, and he has massively improved his handle this offseason with his work. He's become fairly adept at driving the rim and scoring, and his 3pt% is now at 36%. He's a worker, and I love those guys. IMO his handle and finishing ability put him a notch above the Harrison's of the world...he's also bigger, so he can better function as a 3-4.