The Zach Lavine Problem

[BrooklynBulls]

I'm not nearly so high on his potential. Mostly because if a guy isn't interested in playing defense after 3 years, despite his tools, despite being coached by Thibs, it'd be rare for him to suddenly become a big plus there. And without being positive on that end, its going to limit his overall impact. Which despite already having great efficiency, was still a negative. That's worrying.

I think he could be a good #2 though if he reaches his upside.

James Harden does just fine with his dog**** helpside defense. And that's this guy's potential.

[Hangtime84]

We gonna have to max him out

[TheSuzerain]

I'm not nearly so high on his potential. Mostly because if a guy isn't interested in playing defense after 3 years, despite his tools, despite being coached by Thibs, it'd be rare for him to suddenly become a big plus there. And without being positive on that end, its going to limit his overall impact. Which despite already having great efficiency, was still a negative. That's worrying.

I think he could be a good #2 though if he reaches his upside.

James Harden does just fine with his dog**** helpside defense. And that's this guy's potential.

lol no chance.

[NDave79]

I think him naturally filling out as he ages and adding some muscle could make a big difference for him on the defensive side. So far in as in the career he's looked pretty skinny to me. In the process of rehabbing it looks like he's added some significant bulk. I posted a little video earlier in this thread of him rehabbing (and can post it again if anyone wants) but he looks much bigger to me.

[BrooklynBulls]

I'm not nearly so high on his potential. Mostly because if a guy isn't interested in playing defense after 3 years, despite his tools, despite being coached by Thibs, it'd be rare for him to suddenly become a big plus there. And without being positive on that end, its going to limit his overall impact. Which despite already having great efficiency, was still a negative. That's worrying.

I think he could be a good #2 though if he reaches his upside.

James Harden does just fine with his dog**** helpside defense. And that's this guy's potential.

lol no chance.

At age 21, Harden's stats were inferior to his.

[TheSuzerain]

James Harden does just fine with his dog**** helpside defense. And that's this guy's potential.

lol no chance.

At age 21, Harden's stats were inferior to his.

No they weren't.

Let's not be that idiotic forum that compares their middling young talents to superstars.

[HomoSapien]

James Harden does just fine with his dog**** helpside defense. And that's this guy's potential.

lol no chance.

At age 21, Harden's stats were inferior to his.

I'm not sure that's the case. Harden's advanced stats are mostly better. Not astronomically better, but certainly better.

[BrooklynBulls]

lol no chance.

At age 21, Harden's stats were inferior to his.

No they weren't.

Let's not be that idiotic forum that compares their middling young talents to superstars.

I felt this way long before we traded for him. With the added caveat that this ACL injury significantly increases his chances of not reaching his potential. Potential is best possible outcome-- not expected outcome. I EXPECT him to be injured often due to his playstyle, and may not maximize his potential because he can play boneheadedly and he has significant mental deficiencies in his game. But his physical profile is amazing, and his skillset is ideal for the modern NBA. The guy is tall and long, a primary ballhander, one of the most explosive athletes in the league, a talented off and on ball shooter, and has good court vision, though not a good willingness to pass.

[TheSuzerain]

At age 21, Harden's stats were inferior to his.

No they weren't.

Let's not be that idiotic forum that compares their middling young talents to superstars.

I felt this way long before we traded for him. With the added caveat that this ACL injury significantly increases his chances of not reaching his potential. Potential is best possible outcome-- not expected outcome. I EXPECT him to be injured often due to his playstyle, and may not maximize his potential because he can play boneheadedly and he has significant mental deficiencies in his game. But his physical profile is amazing, and his skillset is ideal for the modern NBA. The guy is tall and long, a primary ballhander, one of the most explosive athletes in the league, a talented off and on ball shooter, and has good court vision, though not a good willingness to pass.

Harden isn't Harden without the elite ability to draw fouls.

Zach LaVine's FTR is anemic in comparison. And FTR isn't something that suddenly grows too much.

[HomoSapien]

At age 21, Harden's stats were inferior to his.

No they weren't.

Let's not be that idiotic forum that compares their middling young talents to superstars.

I felt this way long before we traded for him. With the added caveat that this ACL injury significantly increases his chances of not reaching his potential. Potential is best possible outcome-- not expected outcome. I EXPECT him to be injured often due to his playstyle, and may not maximize his potential because he can play boneheadedly and he has significant mental deficiencies in his game. But his physical profile is amazing, and his skillset is ideal for the modern NBA. The guy is tall and long, a primary ballhander, one of the most explosive athletes in the league, a talented off and on ball shooter, and has good court vision, though not a good willingness to pass.

I definitely agree with this. Just based on pure raw potential (assuming health of course) he's a really intriguing prospect. His apparent work-ethic also makes him more likely to carve out a good career. I'm not sure what's holding him back. Maybe it's his size. He's big if he's a PG like he was initially touted as coming into the draft, but as a SG (which he has become) he's only 6'5" and has a slight frame. I think he's going to max out being a Jamal Crawford type of impact player --- which is still a valuable asset to have.

[DanTown8587]

James Harden does just fine with his dog**** helpside defense. And that's this guy's potential.

lol no chance.

At age 21, Harden's stats were inferior to his.

Per 100 age 21
Harden - 23/6/4/2.2 steals/.598 TS%/.501FTR/19.5 usage/16.4 PER

LaVine - 25.8/4/4/1.2 steals/.576 TS%/.197FTR/21.7 usage/14.4 PER

besides volume scoring and negligible difference on three point shooting, LaVine has no obvious edge on Harden at the same age; especially because Harden flashed an elite foul rate and then Harden massively grew his game even more to be a P&R ball handler that would go on to be the best player on a 55 win team. Even if they're comparable prospects, it undercuts how much Harden grew his game and how unlikely that is/was.

[BullsFTW]

No they weren't.

Let's not be that idiotic forum that compares their middling young talents to superstars.

I felt this way long before we traded for him. With the added caveat that this ACL injury significantly increases his chances of not reaching his potential. Potential is best possible outcome-- not expected outcome. I EXPECT him to be injured often due to his playstyle, and may not maximize his potential because he can play boneheadedly and he has significant mental deficiencies in his game. But his physical profile is amazing, and his skillset is ideal for the modern NBA. The guy is tall and long, a primary ballhander, one of the most explosive athletes in the league, a talented off and on ball shooter, and has good court vision, though not a good willingness to pass.

I definitely agree with this. Just based on pure raw potential (assuming health of course) he's a really intriguing prospect. His apparent work-ethic also makes him more likely to carve out a good career. I'm not sure what's holding him back. Maybe it's his size. He's big if he's a PG like he was initially touted as coming into the draft, but as a SG (which he has become) he's only 6'5" and has a slight frame. I think he's going to max out being a Jamal Crawford type of impact player --- which is still a valuable asset to have.

Now that he will be the main focus of the offense, LaVine will be able to showcase his full talent. I expect his averages to increase and his advance stats to improve.

I'm not so worried about him coming back from an ACL surgery. I think he will be fine. He's a hard worker and loves the game. LaVine will be physically better when he comes back.

[Hangtime84]

lol no chance.

At age 21, Harden's stats were inferior to his.

Per 100 age 21
Harden - 23/6/4/2.2 steals/.598 TS%/.501FTR/19.5 usage/16.4 PER

LaVine - 25.8/4/4/1.2 steals/.576 TS%/.197FTR/21.7 usage/14.4 PER

besides volume scoring and negligible difference on three point shooting, LaVine has no obvious edge on Harden at the same age; especially because Harden flashed an elite foul rate and then Harden massively grew his game even more to be a P&R ball handler that would go on to be the best player on a 55 win team. Even if they're comparable prospects, it undercuts how much Harden grew his game and how unlikely that is/was.

I'm glad we are posting this info cause I felt lavine situation could be a lot like harden as well.

[Rerisen]

I'm not nearly so high on his potential. Mostly because if a guy isn't interested in playing defense after 3 years, despite his tools, despite being coached by Thibs, it'd be rare for him to suddenly become a big plus there. And without being positive on that end, its going to limit his overall impact. Which despite already having great efficiency, was still a negative. That's worrying.

I think he could be a good #2 though if he reaches his upside.

James Harden does just fine with his dog**** helpside defense. And that's this guy's potential.

I see little comparison playmaking wise. Harden only improved as he was given more responsibility, while Lavine performed poorly in the role and was then minimalized to primarily just a scorer.

But sure, if LaVine became one of the most efficient volume scorers in NBA history, even without the 11 APG, that could offset a lot of poor defense.

Harden by his 3rd year was already a 21 PER player as well. You can compare by age to make things look more favorable to LaVine, but I think relative NBA experience and rate of advancement is also very telling, and Zach's curve was close to flat last year vs the previous season, at least prior to the injury.

Other stars that came in the league as a teenager, comparison at age 21 via PER.

LeBron: 28.1
McGrady: 24.9
Bryant: 21.7
Garnett: 20.4
Lavine: 14.6

[kodo]

It will be interesting to see if Lavine is any better on a modern defense where you switch, and bigs are guarding ballhandlers on the perimeter.

Thibs runs an old school ice defense, on a screen the defending big drops back and the on-ball defender is expected to fight through the pick and back on his man, and shade him into the defending big and baseline. I watched him (and Wiggins) get caught plenty of times on screens, where other teams are now opting to switch more & more and relying on bigs to defend out of the paint.

Not saying Zach may be secretly a good defender, that shows right away.

But his badness may be overstated because he's in a system that's difficult to pull off in the modern NBA in Minnesota. Lavine wasn't a bad defender on a good defensive team...the entire team was bad on that end. That makes me think it was more systematic and unfamiliarity. And comparatively...Lavine was "less bad" than the other young stars on that team.
Lavine DRPM: #74 out of 84 PGs
Wiggins DRPM: #97 out of 99 SGs
Shabazz DRPM: #70 out of 71 SFs
KAT DRPM: #67 out of 67 Centers

There's also a lot of cases of good guards with the same or worse DRPM as Lavine:
- Avery Bradley
- Kyrie Irving
- Schroder
- IT
- Derozan
- Redick
- Gary Harris

I don't think it will stop lavine from being a good player, it just removes the ceiling of an elite 2 way player like Kawhi, but obviously we already knew that. Bradley Beal is not a positive defender but good enough at -1.04 this season. Just last season, he was worse than Lavine, -2.53. Oladipo made a big swing from -1.59 two seasons ago to +1.56.

Lavine's defense once he's fully healthy may only go up a point or two, but that's enough. He's not firmly in the territory of "completely hopeless" like McDermott, who is -3.92. Even if Doug made gigantic leaps...he'd still be one of the worst defensive wings in the league.

[kyrv]

It will be interesting to see if Lavine is any better on a modern defense where you switch, and bigs are guarding ballhandlers on the perimeter.

Thibs runs an old school ice defense, on a screen the defending big drops back and the on-ball defender is expected to fight through the pick and back on his man, and shade him into the defending big and baseline. I watched him (and Wiggins) get caught plenty of times on screens, where other teams are now opting to switch more & more and relying on bigs to defend out of the paint.

Not saying Zach may be secretly a good defender, that shows right away.

But his badness may be overstated because he's in a system that's difficult to pull off in the modern NBA in Minnesota. Lavine wasn't a bad defender on a good defensive team...the entire team was bad on that end. That makes me think it was more systematic and unfamiliarity. And comparatively...Lavine was "less bad" than the other young stars on that team.
Lavine DRPM: #74 out of 84 PGs
Wiggins DRPM: #97 out of 99 SGs
Shabazz DRPM: #70 out of 71 SFs
KAT DRPM: #67 out of 67 Centers

There's also a lot of cases of good guards with the same or worse DRPM as Lavine:
- Avery Bradley
- Kyrie Irving
- Schroder
- IT
- Derozan
- Redick
- Gary Harris

I don't think it will stop lavine from being a good player, it just removes the ceiling of an elite 2 way player like Kawhi, but obviously we already knew that. Bradley Beal is not a positive defender but good enough at -1.04 this season. Just last season, he was worse than Lavine, -2.53. Oladipo made a big swing from -1.59 two seasons ago to +1.56.

Lavine's defense once he's fully healthy may only go up a point or two, but that's enough. He's not firmly in the territory of "completely hopeless" like McDermott, who is -3.92. Even if Doug made gigantic leaps...he'd still be one of the worst defensive wings in the league.

Great post and thanks for the numbers. Like Lauri, he needs to not kill the team on that end. Although we do need to lose games. :0

[Rerisen]

I don't think it will stop lavine from being a good player, it just removes the ceiling of an elite 2 way player like Kawhi,

We don't even know if he'll become an elite 1 way player.

Guy is already scoring 18.3 Points per 36 on .576 TS%, and yet was a negative for his team's offense!

I'm not sure where you go from there to improve. But its likely a style problem and not one that can be solved by just making more baskets.

[sco]

Here's the Lavine situation in a nutshell, IMO:

1) He was a young, starting-talent who had shown decent improvement in his game
2) He got hurt which will very likely impact how well he plays this year
3) If he somehow comes back and shows he's awesome this year, we get the option to sign him
4) If he plays mediocre, but shows he can fit the system, we can possibly sign him for a low-cost deal
5) If he injures himself or doesn't fit or flat out sucks, we move on

All-in-all those scenarios feel like the same sort of risk/reward of a 1st Round Pick in the 5-10 range. I'm fine.

[Paxson43]

The majority of fans upset with / disliking a 22 year old kid that shot 38.7% from three last season are letting their Jimmy Butler emotions tie into the acquisition.

Keep in mind, Thibs didn't want to part with this kid last season, and the only reason we got him this season was because we threw in the 16th pick and he's coming off an ACL surgery. Since when, in this era, has ACL injuries ruined careers of 21, 22 year olds? This isn't someone that solely relies on his explosion/athleticism like Derrick Rose

You don't get a lot of 22 year olds that win dunk contests and potentially could have won a 3PT contest the same season. He's an upper echelon athlete in terms of his quickness and explosion, and he is a much better shooter than his reputation lends.

[chrispatrick]

The majority of fans upset with / disliking a 22 year old kid that shot 38.7% from three last season are letting their Jimmy Butler emotions tie into the acquisition.

Keep in mind, Thibs didn't want to part with this kid last season, and the only reason we got him this season was because we threw in the 16th pick and he's coming off an ACL surgery. Since when, in this era, has ACL injuries ruined careers of 21, 22 year olds? This isn't someone that solely relies on his explosion/athleticism like Derrick Rose

You don't get a lot of 22 year olds that win dunk contests and potentially could have won a 3PT contest the same season. He's an upper echelon athlete in terms of his quickness and explosion, and he is a much better shooter than his reputation lends.

I think it's more of a clash between those who follow advanced stats or those who don't care for them. This post isn't intended to argue which group of posters is better or smarter (advanced stats tell some but not all of the story), more just explaining the thought process behind the guys who don't like LaVine are generally guys that like Butler.

I'm one who doesn't view LaVine as an asset because I see little chance that he could eclipse the value of his next contract (not a knock on LaVine specifically, but generally that's something that only all-stars and rookies do as NBA economics wildly underpay stars/rookies and shovel the cash that should be going to those guys to guys like LaVine), i do think he has a good chance to recover just fine from his injury.