Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[Dez]

In a few years maybe, but no one wants him here for a few years.

Everyone wants him, he's only 23 and is constantly improving all whilst being on a bargain contract.

He isn't constantly improving.

Except for improving every season.

Good call.

[GuardianEnzo]

KCJ used the word "standstill" today, and he's about as connected as anybody given he's basically a team spokesman.

[DeniBuck]

I hope he takes the QO and next year finds a team that wants him.

[Jvaughn]

Honest question, if a team were interested in Giddey without cap space couldn't they facilitate a sign and trade? If so, it is telling that nobody is interested what so ever.

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

Team has to have capspace to sign Giddey to an offer sheet, which would be what would trigger the Bulls to open trade talks with that team. Otherwise, if Bulls really wanted to keep Giddey, they could ignore that team without capspace as they have no leverage without the ability to get the deal done without the Bulls facilitating.

[dougthonus]

I've come to the conclusion that I'd offer these three contracts to Giddey:

1: 5/125 - Structured descending starting at 29M (ends at about 20M)
2: 3/70 - Structured descending starting at 25.5M
3: Qualifying offer

The three year deal requires him to make 29.5M AAV next year on the QO to break even, so is a good hedge if he wants to hit FA quickly vs the risks he takes on the QO.

The five year deal requires he makes about 28M AAV to beat, but offers a much bigger hedge.

If he wants the QO, go for it. I just can't get over the fact that at the end of the day, I think Giddey is not a top 3 player on a good team regardless of his stats. Vuc of point guards, floor raiser, ceiling lowerer, and as tempting as it is to get sucked into that, I don't want to pay for it.

[rosenthall]

I've come to the conclusion that I'd offer these three contracts to Giddey:

1: 5/125 - Structured descending starting at 29M (ends at about 20M)
2: 3/70 - Structured descending starting at 25.5M
3: Qualifying offer

The three year deal requires him to make 29.5M AAV next year on the QO to break even, so is a good hedge if he wants to hit FA quickly vs the risks he takes on the QO.

The five year deal requires he makes about 28M AAV to beat, but offers a much bigger hedge.

If he wants the QO, go for it. I just can't get over the fact that at the end of the day, I think Giddey is not a top 3 player on a good team regardless of his stats. Vuc of point guards, floor raiser, ceiling lowerer, and as tempting as it is to get sucked into that, I don't want to pay for it.

End of day, not sure the difference between 5/125 and 5/130 is a big enough gap to prevent getting a deal done. If Giddey is stuck on his $30 million AAV number, I would match it, but also insist on the last year being a TO, along with a declining contract.

I understand the risk with Giddey, but I think the difference between the good / bad outcome with him is mostly due to the team you put around him.

Right now our roster is very Giddey friendly IMO, so I think the odds are good that we keep getting the good version of him. Once we have that, the only thing that would deter it is picking someone in the draft who's more talented with the ball in their hands.

In general:

- That's just unlikely to happen
- Even if it did, the player would likely need at least 1 year to fully acclimate to the league.

In the second scenario, we're looking at Giddey's role becoming obsolescent happens in at most 2.5 years from now. With a 5th year TO that's just not that huge a deal since he'd be an expiring the next offseason. And even in that case it's not like his value would go to zero.

Even if Giddey has some empty calories to his game it doesn't mean he can't be a useful focal point for the current team's evolution.

I actually think Vuc-era Magic are a good example of how this could go right. That team was built around Vuc, topped out as a 1st round playoff exit, but the value he built up during that time was enough to commensurate a transition to an even better team.

[dougthonus]

End of day, not sure the difference between 5/125 and 5/130 is a big enough gap to prevent getting a deal done. If Giddey is stuck on his $30 million AAV number, I would match it, but also insist on the last year being a TO, along with a declining contract.

$30M is 5/150, not 5/125 FWIW.

I understand the risk with Giddey, but I think the difference between the good / bad outcome with him is mostly due to the team you put around him.

I don't think there is a team you can put around Giddey where he is a critical part of a good team. As soon as you put a superstar next to him, his strengths are vastly limited and weaknesses exposed, so I'm offering him a deal that pays him a bit more early when he'll be a more important player and gets him closer to role player money at the end, when if we have a good team that's exactly what he'll be.

I actually think Vuc-era Magic are a good example of how this could go right. That team was built around Vuc, topped out as a 1st round playoff exit, but the value he built up during that time was enough to commensurate a transition to an even better team.

Yeah, you just have to hope you find someone as dumb as us to trade Giddey to later in that scenario, but it shows exactly the problem, that team capped out at 42 wins, and you saw Vuc go to a team with better scorers around him and be neutered instead of improved.

[Red Larrivee]

I don't think there is a team you can put around Giddey where he is a critical part of a good team. As soon as you put a superstar next to him, his strengths are vastly limited and weaknesses exposed, so I'm offering him a deal that pays him a bit more early when he'll be a more important player and gets him closer to role player money at the end, when if we have a good team that's exactly what he'll be.

I think this is a valid concern. I also think that because of the confined way AK is building this team, they do not have many shots of finding those budding superstars who would render Giddey useless. Whether it's the draft, trade or free agency, the probabilities look really low right now. So, not keeping him takes one of your already limited possibilities off the table.

I also think that if Giddey is mostly the player he showed post ASB, then he is a player who can play with stars. But of course if he's not, then yeah.

[dougthonus]

I think this is a valid concern. I also think that because of the confined way AK is building this team, they do not have many shots of finding those budding superstars who would render Giddey useless. Whether it's the draft, trade or free agency, the probabilities look really low right now. So, not keeping him takes one of your already limited possibilities off the table.

I also think that if Giddey is mostly the player he showed post ASB, then he is a player who can play with stars. But of course if he's not, then yeah.

From an AK perspective, it wouldn't surprise me if AK would put more importance on Giddey than I would, because I would build the team in a totally different way, so he may also have more desperation. I think you're correct in the impact of this and how AK would view the situation if he remains non-flexible, but my hope is also that he is not hung up on anyone path and despite kind of aiming in one direction previously that he's actually open underneath to different options.

[sco]

I don't think there is a team you can put around Giddey where he is a critical part of a good team. As soon as you put a superstar next to him, his strengths are vastly limited and weaknesses exposed, so I'm offering him a deal that pays him a bit more early when he'll be a more important player and gets him closer to role player money at the end, when if we have a good team that's exactly what he'll be.

I think this is a valid concern. I also think that because of the confined way AK is building this team, they do not have many shots of finding those budding superstars who would render Giddey useless. Whether it's the draft, trade or free agency, the probabilities look really low right now. So, not keeping him takes one of your already limited possibilities off the table.

I also think that if Giddey is mostly the player he showed post ASB, then he is a player who can play with stars. But of course if he's not, then yeah.

You guys made me thing. Here's where I come out. As a fan, it is uncomfortable having unfilled holes on our "future roster". When I think about what a contending roster has, I think about the following roles (multiple roles can be played by the same player):

Primary ball handler/distributor
True #1 scorer (i.e. a guy who can score 30ppg efficiently while facing double-teams)
A good #2 scorer (i.e. a guy who scores 20ppg efficiently and can score on double-teams)
A POA defender
A second ball handler
A rim protector
A 10 rebound per game gy
4 players who are above average 3pt shooters
3 players who are very good defenders

In my teambuilding view, you should start with the #1 scoring option because they are rare. Unless one of our new core has a very big uptick in scoring ability, that guy isn't on the team, which creates the big issue. We don't know what other roles our future #1 can fill and what we need to backfill. In most situations, the #1 option is also the primary ball handler/distributor, but we are checking that box with Giddey.

[Ballerkingn23]

Squeeze him out as long as possible. Don’t cave and try to get the best deal possible.

30 mil is caving imo.

25 is still too high.

20-24 is the rate we should be going for.

Giddy had no leverage as of now, so why bid against yourself.

[othawhitemeat]

I think it depends on what each is asking, imo. If Giddey wants 30 mill a year and Bulls are going like 22 or 23, that is tough. However if we are at 25 mill, can we meet around 27 millish? If he is wanting more than 30 mill, dont call me until serious.

[nomorezorro]

I just can't get over the fact that at the end of the day, I think Giddey is not a top 3 player on a good team regardless of his stats. Vuc of point guards, floor raiser, ceiling lowerer, and as tempting as it is to get sucked into that, I don't want to pay for it.

i might be less of a non-believer than you, but as someone who shares the same line of skepticism about giddey as a long-term building block, i would not be inclined to do a 5-year deal unless you can get the AAV down below $25 million

to me, the downsides of a 5/125 contract in a scenario where he turns into a pumpkin outweigh the potential upside of having him at a reduced rate for 2 additional years in a scenario where he turns out to be a legit all-star level guy. (and i personally think the former is more likely than the latter.)

i might even do 4/120 with a team option for the last year before i'd do 5/125

[rosenthall]

$30M is 5/150, not 5/125 FWIW.

Duly noted, thanks for pointing it out. Typo on my part.

I don't think there is a team you can put around Giddey where he is a critical part of a good team. As soon as you put a superstar next to him, his strengths are vastly limited and weaknesses exposed, so I'm offering him a deal that pays him a bit more early when he'll be a more important player and gets him closer to role player money at the end, when if we have a good team that's exactly what he'll be.

I think it's very difficult to play Giddey-ball on a championship contender, but I think you can be a winning team and win a playoff series with him as your primary distributor. I have the opinion that you shouldn't make choices around players solely based on the criteria on whether or not their roles project cleanly to a championship contender. I'm okay with paying Giddey as someone who gets us from point A to point B for where the team is currently at.

so I'm offering him a deal that pays him a bit more early when he'll be a more important player and gets him closer to role player money at the end, when if we have a good team that's exactly what he'll be.

Agree completely. I want Giddey on a declining deal so we have insurance against him turning into Kyle Anderson.

Yeah, you just have to hope you find someone as dumb as us to trade Giddey to later in that scenario, but it shows exactly the problem, that team capped out at 42 wins, and you saw Vuc go to a team with better scorers around him and be neutered instead of improved.

Vuc had an active trade market that deadline. We had to include Wendell Carter Jr as the cherry on top to get the deal done. Even if we hadn't made the trade, someone would have put together a palatable offer for him.

Vuc made an All-Star game that year and the team was well positioned to maximize his success. We're in the same position as Giddey.

[MrSparkle]

Still beyond absurd to me that they’re taking the time to hardball with Giddey, but not with Pat last year.

Paid your 14th-man some starter bucks until 2030, but asking your primary ballhandler/designated leader to take about $2M more. I just don’t think that’s gonna work.

I do believe that F’ing up contracts and overpaying scrubs has a net-negative effect on future deals. Agents and players are entitled to some feeling of their worth, and they know the Bulls have plenty cap-space to pay more than this current (dead) market. That’s why I personally think this might end in a stalemate… possible QO, or a 1-and-done deal. Or he’ll get what he wants.

AK traded his best asset for this guy, so Giddey’s agent also realizes they don’t want to lose him for nothing. It’s all a bit of a dead-end. AK is terrible at managing an NBA team.

[Red Larrivee]

Still beyond absurd to me that they’re taking the time to hardball with Giddey, but not with Pat last year.

Paid your 14th-man some starter bucks until 2030, but asking your primary ballhandler/designated leader to take about $2M more. I just don’t think that’s gonna work.

From what Cowley says, the Bulls essentially made an emotional decision with Pat to motivate him, which is just absurd.

[MrSparkle]

Still beyond absurd to me that they’re taking the time to hardball with Giddey, but not with Pat last year.

Paid your 14th-man some starter bucks until 2030, but asking your primary ballhandler/designated leader to take about $2M more. I just don’t think that’s gonna work.

From what Cowley says, the Bulls essentially made an emotional decision with Pat to motivate him, which is just absurd.

I’m not sure what to believe there. If that’s true, then AK should have been fired.

The real reason should’ve been that AK saw a 3D starter with room to improve. But it appears to have been a huge mis-evaluation, amongst many others.

[Red Larrivee]

Still beyond absurd to me that they’re taking the time to hardball with Giddey, but not with Pat last year.

Paid your 14th-man some starter bucks until 2030, but asking your primary ballhandler/designated leader to take about $2M more. I just don’t think that’s gonna work.

From what Cowley says, the Bulls essentially made an emotional decision with Pat to motivate him, which is just absurd.

I’m not sure what to believe there. If that’s true, then AK should have been fired.

The real reason should’ve been that AK saw a 3D starter with room to improve. But it appears to have been a huge mis-evaluation, amongst many others.

I'm sure that played a role too. I don't think Pat is as bad as the worst season of his career showed, but he's still uninspiring overall. The tag is about what the going rate is for 3D forwards with upside to improve, but the process of giving him that deal as a hope of motivation is really bad.

As far as Giddey goes, I agree with you. Even with leverage, arguing that he's only worth a couple mill more than Pat after he was the driving force of turning the season around is laughable. I just think 20M is a weird hardline if you really want him back. But still, in these negotiations AK is doing his job (well?). Giddey's agent is also doing his job well and rightfully pointing to market comps.

It's only been a week and no other notable RFA deals have been done so far. If both sides are serious about continuing, 23-25 may be the best number.

[Stratmaster]

I've come to the conclusion that I'd offer these three contracts to Giddey:

1: 5/125 - Structured descending starting at 29M (ends at about 20M)
2: 3/70 - Structured descending starting at 25.5M
3: Qualifying offer

The three year deal requires him to make 29.5M AAV next year on the QO to break even, so is a good hedge if he wants to hit FA quickly vs the risks he takes on the QO.

The five year deal requires he makes about 28M AAV to beat, but offers a much bigger hedge.

If he wants the QO, go for it. I just can't get over the fact that at the end of the day, I think Giddey is not a top 3 player on a good team regardless of his stats. Vuc of point guards, floor raiser, ceiling lowerer, and as tempting as it is to get sucked into that, I don't want to pay for it.

If I am Giddey I take #1 and negotiate a player option in year 5.

[MissileMike]

I think there's a decent chance that today's the day.