How Good is Jimmy Butler?

[Andi Obst]

My position in the whole Butler trade discussion back in the day would be completely different today. I got way too excited about the "potential" of going through a rebuild via the draft over what we had with Butler. I hated the actual Butler trade when it happened - and obviously still do - but not the idea behind it. I do now. It would have been easy to build a very good team around Jimmy here.

[troza]

My position in the whole Butler trade discussion back in the day would be completely different today. I got way too excited about the "potential" of going through a rebuild via the draft over what we had with Butler. I hated the actual Butler trade when it happened - and obviously still do - but not the idea behind it. I do now. It would have been easy to build a very good team around Jimmy here.

Not that I want to fully disagree but GarPax vs Pat Riley, Hoidberg vs Spo... there is a huge difference.

Then the Heat are a good and fun team. The luck we had drafting Butler, they had getting some of their pieces in positions the teams usually don't have.

So... easy? No...

Possible? Yes. Very hard and without the right people maybe unlikely.

And are the Heat that good? I don't think so... one of the weakest teams in the finals in the last years...

Not saying that we wouldn't be better with a good playoff team looking to shine on one run than this rebuilding process... but I believe that we will see that the change of personal will make us look again at that trade and change our perspective again.

[Susan]

I've said it a million times, so this will make one million and one: You will NEVER win an NBA title with Jimmy Butler as your best player.

Never.

lol, and you've got a Mitchell Trubisky username. Maybe sit this one out.

[Andi Obst]

Not that I want to fully disagree but GarPax vs Pat Riley, Hoidberg vs Spo... there is a huge difference.

Then the Heat are a good and fun team. The luck we had drafting Butler, they had getting some of their pieces in positions the teams usually don't have.

So... easy? No...

Possible? Yes. Very hard and without the right people maybe unlikely.

And are the Heat that good? I don't think so... one of the weakest teams in the finals in the last years...

Not saying that we wouldn't be better with a good playoff team looking to shine on one run than this rebuilding process... but I believe that we will see that the change of personal will make us look again at that trade and change our perspective again.

I mean, with GarPax in charge any direction makes less sense because they sucked. They should have been fired earlier, but having a dumb FO doesn't make the decision to trade Butler better (especially in that deal). You get rid of the FO and hire smart people. A smart front office could have easily built a very good team around Butler, 100%.

I don't see why a smart FO (hopefully) in charge would make us change perspective on the Butler deal again. It is what it always was: a very bad trade with no real plan behind it.

[johnnyvann840]

I've said it a million times, so this will make one million and one: You will NEVER win an NBA title with Jimmy Butler as your best player.

Never.

And you were *that close* to being wrong all one million times, because all it took was LBJ to tear his plantar rather than Goran and the Heat would have won the FInals.

But feel free to die on the hill once again.

Not only this but in his last two stops he was a Kawhi Leonard miracle bounce away from taking the Sixers to the Finals as their best player in the playoffs and then he carries this Heat team on his back into the Finals while being underdogs in every series, including round 1.

[IamSam]

I think Jimmy is so good that at least one star level player is going to.going to want to join him down in Miami next year.

Par Riley has set the Heat up to be like Brooklyn but with a couple of All-Stars already in place in South Beach.

[Ice Man]

Here's an interesting exercise. At least for me. I have taken LeBron's 10 Finals, and for each Final I show the difference between LeBron's average Game Score (the John Hollinger stat that attempts to compute all-around performance from box-score stats) and that of LeBron's primary defender. I might be wrong about the defender in some of those series, but anyway here are the results. A negative number means that the player was worse than LeBron, a positive number means that the player was better -

2007 - Bruce Bowen, -6.6
2011 - Shawn Marion, -3.7
2012 - Shane Battier, -14.3
2013 - Kawhi Leonard, -8.3
2014 - Kawhi Leonard, -6.7
2016 - Iggy, -11.0
2016 - Iggy, -16.6
2017 - Kevin Durant, +0.7
2018 - Kevin Durant, -1.4
2020 - Jimmy Butler, +4.0

The highest average Game Scores of all those players, plus LeBron in all those years, have been -

Durant 2017 - 30.3
LeBron 2017 - 29.6
LeBron 2018 - 28.3
Butler 2020 - 28.1
Durant 2018 - 26.9

Iggy's and Kawhi's scores were in the mid teens. Dirk in 2011 was 16.6.

Finally, in case you are thinking that there might be a gap between the best three players in this series and then everybody else, ummm yep.

Butler - 28.1
LeBron - 24.1
AD - 22.5
Herro - 9.5 (this stat doesn't count defense!)
Olynyk - 9.2 (ditto)

The third best Laker is KCP at 7.5.

[Jcool0]

I mean, with GarPax in charge any direction makes less sense because they sucked. They should have been fired earlier, but having a dumb FO doesn't make the decision to trade Butler better (especially in that deal). You get rid of the FO and hire smart people. A smart front office could have easily built a very good team around Butler, 100%.

I don't see why a smart FO (hopefully) in charge would make us change perspective on the Butler deal again. It is what it always was: a very bad trade with no real plan behind it.

A Jimmy Butler making 200+ million & a Bulls team drafting 15-25? Good luck building a very good team around that.

[Dieselbound&Down]

Here's an interesting exercise. At least for me. I have taken LeBron's 10 Finals, and for each Final I show the difference between LeBron's average Game Score (the John Hollinger stat that attempts to compute all-around performance from box-score stats) and that of LeBron's primary defender. I might be wrong about the defender in some of those series, but anyway here are the results. A negative number means that the player was worse than LeBron, a positive number means that the player was better -

2007 - Bruce Bowen, -6.6
2011 - Shawn Marion, -3.7
2012 - Shane Battier, -14.3
2013 - Kawhi Leonard, -8.3
2014 - Kawhi Leonard, -6.7
2016 - Iggy, -11.0
2016 - Iggy, -16.6
2017 - Kevin Durant, +0.7
2018 - Kevin Durant, -1.4
2020 - Jimmy Butler, +4.0

The highest average Game Scores of all those players, plus LeBron in all those years, have been -

Durant 2017 - 30.3
LeBron 2017 - 29.6
LeBron 2018 - 28.3
Butler 2020 - 28.1
Durant 2018 - 26.9

Iggy's and Kawhi's scores were in the mid teens. Dirk in 2011 was 16.6.

Finally, in case you are thinking that there might be a gap between the best three players in this series and then everybody else, ummm yep.

Butler - 28.1
LeBron - 24.1
AD - 22.5
Herro - 9.5 (this stat doesn't count defense!)
Olynyk - 9.2 (ditto)

The third best Laker is KCP at 7.5.

What a great post. Thanks for putting in the work. Butler basically doesn't shoot 3s and has a weak supporting cast, especially with the injuries, and somehow still finds ways to score and get good baskets for his teammates. Lebron has the aura of taking over games but Butler is the one making the bigger difference. He also is playing great defense on 2 guys much bigger than him. Butler and Iggy play D so well together the Lakers aren't able to run their high ball screen game between those two for easy buckets, Iggy and Butler are able to contain that well enough that the whole offense slows down too much.

If AD went down for a couple games, it would be fascinating to see what this series would look like. Lebron would be in a dog fight with Butler and Butler wouldn't back down an inch. They would be on fairly even footing at that point. Obviously not rooting for that, never root for an injury, but that would let this comparison play out on the court.

[TheSuzerain]

My position in the whole Butler trade discussion back in the day would be completely different today. I got way too excited about the "potential" of going through a rebuild via the draft over what we had with Butler. I hated the actual Butler trade when it happened - and obviously still do - but not the idea behind it. I do now. It would have been easy to build a very good team around Jimmy here.

Not that I want to fully disagree but GarPax vs Pat Riley, Hoidberg vs Spo... there is a huge difference.

Then the Heat are a good and fun team. The luck we had drafting Butler, they had getting some of their pieces in positions the teams usually don't have.

So... easy? No...

Possible? Yes. Very hard and without the right people maybe unlikely.

And are the Heat that good? I don't think so... one of the weakest teams in the finals in the last years...

Not saying that we wouldn't be better with a good playoff team looking to shine on one run than this rebuilding process... but I believe that we will see that the change of personal will make us look again at that trade and change our perspective again.

It would have been very easy to build a very good team around peak Jimmy. 50 wins easy with competent roster construction.

Building a contending team? That would have been difficult and likely required us to sign a 2nd star in FA and/or hit on a star late in the draft. That's tougher to do, but it's always tough to build a contending team unless you have a generational superstar to build around.

[drosereturn]

My position in the whole Butler trade discussion back in the day would be completely different today. I got way too excited about the "potential" of going through a rebuild via the draft over what we had with Butler. I hated the actual Butler trade when it happened - and obviously still do - but not the idea behind it. I do now. It would have been easy to build a very good team around Jimmy here.

Building a good team is very hard which is why Gar pax ditched Jimmy. How many gms can turn cap hell miami into finals contenders? If you make slight mistake, you become the Wolves, Sixers losing him for nothing which is why trading was still good.
Riley literally made 0 mistakes since then to acquire Butler and he structured the contracts in a way it would expire by 2021 which is when all the big boys are available when everyone was complaining the team sucked. The difference between having a great one and a poor or even avg one is huge its like having Lebron on your team improving at least 10 wins per yr.

[johnnyvann840]

..........

If AD went down for a couple games, it would be fascinating to see what this series would look like. Lebron would be in a dog fight with Butler and Butler wouldn't back down an inch. They would be on fairly even footing at that point. Obviously not rooting for that, never root for an injury, but that would let this comparison play out on the court.

I agree with you but how about just having a healthy Dragic? That would make a huge difference for Jimmy and the Heat. I think we are locked at 2 games apiece right now if Dragic doesn't go down.

[Ice Man]

Thanks for putting in the work.

It's instructive to go back in history and compare the numbers against the narratives. Dirk in 2011 is a classic example. Everybody "knows" that LeBron bottled it in the 2011 Finals and that Dirk carried his inferior team on his back, at an MVP level that an ordinary good player can't match. Ummm, no. It's true that LeBron bottled it but Dirk ... nah. Lots of guys could have done what Dirk did. Just an ordinary good performance. Wade was actually the best player in the series, only nobody remembers that.

[othawhitemeat]

..........

If AD went down for a couple games, it would be fascinating to see what this series would look like. Lebron would be in a dog fight with Butler and Butler wouldn't back down an inch. They would be on fairly even footing at that point. Obviously not rooting for that, never root for an injury, but that would let this comparison play out on the court.

I agree with you but how about just having a healthy Dragic? That would make a huge difference for Jimmy and the Heat. I think we are locked at 2 games apiece right now if Dragic doesn't go down.

Which is a testament to Jimmy but also should be a testament that Lebron is overrated outside of longevity in terms of GOAT Discussions. This Heat team is worst supporting talent with the injuries than what Hakeem had with Houston. Do you consider Jimmy consistently better than Hakeem? However, here we are where Jimmy is outplaying Lebron. However, it is also a testament that I have yet to see many players want to will their teams to win like Jimmy in my lifetime. Pure will with above average talent...

[Andi Obst]

A Jimmy Butler making 200+ million & a Bulls team drafting 15-25? Good luck building a very good team around that.

Jimmy's extension, supermax or not, would have kicked in two offseasons after the trade. That was easily enough time. Not for GarPax, obviously, but for a good FO for sure.

[Dieselbound&Down]

..........

If AD went down for a couple games, it would be fascinating to see what this series would look like. Lebron would be in a dog fight with Butler and Butler wouldn't back down an inch. They would be on fairly even footing at that point. Obviously not rooting for that, never root for an injury, but that would let this comparison play out on the court.

I agree with you but how about just having a healthy Dragic? That would make a huge difference for Jimmy and the Heat. I think we are locked at 2 games apiece right now if Dragic doesn't go down.

I agree with this. Dragic makes plays on offense and I think his presence would make it a lot easier for the shooters on the Heat to play at a higher level.

My post, though, was basically taking out the other top players in the series, making it Butler vs. Lebron with each surrounded by role players. I don't know that Butler would win that but it would be interesting. Butler plays Lebron so well on defense, closes games well and has the will to make it super competitive. It would be a seriously downgraded finals to watch but an interesting battle of the top players.

[Andi Obst]

Riley literally made 0 mistakes since then to acquire Butler and he structured the contracts in a way it would expire by 2021 which is when all the big boys are available when everyone was complaining the team sucked.

That's simply not true. But Riley, or the Heat FO in general, can accept when they made a mistake and move on. The Heat didn't need some Riley magic to get where they are. They drafted well, took time to develop guys they believed in (see Duncan Robinson), collected good players, many of which were not seen as super valuable assets around the league, and hired and held on to an excellent coach in Spoelstra. That's just what good management does over time.

[Ice Man]

That's simply not true. But Riley, or the Heat FO in general, can accept when they made a mistake and move on. The Heat didn't need some Riley magic to get where they are. They drafted well, took time to develop guys they believed in (see Duncan Robinson), collected good players, many of which were not seen as super valuable assets around the league, and hired and held on to an excellent coach in Spoelstra. That's just what good management does over time.

The Heat have only had 5 first round draft picks since 2008. Two are Bam and Herro, the other three were flops in Justice Winslow, P.J. Hairston, and Arnett Moultrie. But Pat knows when to cut his losses. He also, clearly, doesn't have stars in his eyes about draft picks, as tanking teams do. He figures that if he doesn't get the guys he wants on draft days, he'll figure out how to get them later. All the top NBA teams have that mindset, except for Boston sorta, and Philly if you call a 6th seed a top NBA team.

[Michael Jackson]

I mean, with GarPax in charge any direction makes less sense because they sucked. They should have been fired earlier, but having a dumb FO doesn't make the decision to trade Butler better (especially in that deal). You get rid of the FO and hire smart people. A smart front office could have easily built a very good team around Butler, 100%.

I don't see why a smart FO (hopefully) in charge would make us change perspective on the Butler deal again. It is what it always was: a very bad trade with no real plan behind it.

A Jimmy Butler making 200+ million & a Bulls team drafting 15-25? Good luck building a very good team around that.

First, Toronto won l year with no players chosen in he Loy on their team so I can be done with those players. Secondly if you have Butler you see in the AD sweepstakes last year when he demanded a trade. You are also in play with he guys who were in free agency last year. Even if you don’t have capspace like the Nets and Warriors you can make a trade. Third, isn’t Jimmy Butler taking this Heat dam to he finals with what is somewhat comparable talent to what the Bulls would have been able to collect? It isn’t like our lottery picks look like they will ever be better than jimmy?

I mean I understand at the moment when he was traded that there was some logic but we are dealing with hindsight now and I don’t see any argument that we would be better doing what we did than if we had stuck with Butler. Even if you were a 4th seed and stuck there it is surely a better and brighter future than what they have had. No matter how poorly I worked out ( playoff appearance) but with Butler both Rondo and Wade signed here. At best we get Thad and Sato now.

GarPax Lilly downgraded everything about this organization, prior Butler, starting with Thibs. Coaches got worse, players got worse, record got worse. The great influx of talent never came. Literally LaVine is the best part of the whole deal and Lauri + Dunn is who they wanted with Wiggins. Could you imagine how much worse this would look if Taylor wasn’t an idiot himself?

[Mech Engineer]

Miami's cast is something that any average GM could have built. Jimmy is making it functional.

GarPax were so bad that they were lusting after Dunn in exchange for Jimmy. They are lucky they got Lavine.

I guess it is Paxson's mentality...either you have to be a super prospect like Derrick or an accomplished superstar like Lebron or MJ. Otherwise, you keep rebuilding until you find one.