OT: COVID-19 thread #2

[AKfanatic]

It has been close to 90 degrees for the last several days in PHX and supposed to hit triple digits by next week, so it should be interesting to see what happens in AZ. If the heat and sunshine kills the virus theory holds, then cases in AZ should go down to nearly nothing. It would be interesting to see the breakdown of Flagstaff vs PHX also. Flagstaff has a climate more like Boulder, CO.

One problem with that is the amount of people and businesses that use AC. If heat kills it quickly, the AC hampers that as well as helps to disperse the virus throughout the air through the airflow.

Alaska sure looks like the best place to be right now, that is for sure.

The population density and massive hours of sunlight certainly shouldn’t hurt.

[AKfanatic]

Read on Twitter

Please people, for the love of god, don’t suck on Lysol wipes or drink bleach.....

[johnnyvann840]

One problem with that is the amount of people and businesses that use AC. If heat kills it quickly, the AC hampers that as well as helps to disperse the virus throughout the air through the airflow.

Alaska sure looks like the best place to be right now, that is for sure.

The population density and massive hours of sunlight certainly shouldn’t hurt.

The cases there are low and deaths near zero. I think 3 in entire state.

[AKfanatic]

Alaska sure looks like the best place to be right now, that is for sure.

The population density and massive hours of sunlight certainly shouldn’t hurt.

The cases there are low and deaths near zero. I think 3 in entire state.

They’ve also had curfews in some areas. But yeah, the remoteness of AK and density are a massive plus. Even in Anchorage, you rarely see large groups of people together outside of a couple bars on the weekends. AK may as well be an island.

[otwok]

No doubt this will happen.

These lockdowns are getting ridiculous now. People need to go back to work! Almost 30 million have filed for unemployment in the last several weeks alone. I am for sensible social distancing measures—protecting the most vulnerable—but I'm not down with the strategy of trying to save the lives of thousands in order to ruin the lives of millions by keeping people in their homes until everything is perfect. It will never happen.

Eventually, we're all probably going to end up going the Sweden route. I think it's only a matter of time.

Well this is the issue. When you talk about a pandemic and what we are doing the key is jobs. The problem is that the government isn't doing enough for this. Everyone focuses on unemployment, well if everyone focused on keeping people in their jobs it would be better. The government needed to do more in ensuring companies wouldn't layoff rather than just giving some half-assed unemployment checks. Because of this, if this goes on like this till about June or July, at this rate you are looking at 100 million unemployed.

The US right now is printing money like mad. New cash gets created and the fed buys debt obligations that are risky. That is the only thing keeping our financial sector going or all of the delayed payments would be crushing the banks and potentially causing bank runs as people feared getting their money out (ie rich people and businesses who keep more money than the FDIC covers in banks).

The amount of money being printed right now is at dangerous levels. Very few people in the US are doing anything of value. Cars aren't being assembled, vacations aren't being taken, houses aren't being built, etc. If this continues, we are staring at a Weimar Republic scenario where you have to take a wheelbarrow full of cash into the store to buy a loaf of bread.

We need to figure out how to start working again in a safe manner. We can't just keep printing money and handing it to people to stay home and do nothing of value. Money by itself isn't inherently valuable. Its only worth what it can buy.

Well my problem were the bailouts as they were. That and where the money is going for the most part. The value of the US dollar in itself is really on the consumer. Without consumption that's really where the dollar loses it's value. Either way, I do not think they should have funded the unemployment, they should have done things to stop companies from laying off. That's where the issue lies. And I bet you, that could have cost a lot less than these bailouts.

[Payt10]

All the “low risk” vs “high risk” return to work talk is weakly disguised “they’re willing to die for the economy” narrative.

Oh, please.. Spare me the leftist talking point nonsense. Nobody wants people to die. It's really irritating to hear this crap from people that still have jobs scolding people for even raising the question about opening up the economy while millions have lost theirs.

The way you protect the most vulnerable is to keep them at home and tell grandma and grandpa they might not be getting any visits for a while. You do the best you can, given the circumstances. If you are able to work from home, then work from home. Wear masks outside and in public places.

I don't agree with keeping everybody in their homes indefinitely. I don't think it makes any sense based on the reasons I've previously indicated. Ultimately none of us will ever get the full vindication we're looking for because we will never know the counterfactual.

[AKfanatic]

All the “low risk” vs “high risk” return to work talk is weakly disguised “they’re willing to die for the economy” narrative.

Oh, please.. Spare me the leftist talking point nonsense. Nobody wants people to die. It's really irritating to hear this crap from people that still have jobs scolding people for even raising the question about opening up the economy while millions have lost theirs.

The way you protect the most vulnerable is to keep them at home and tell grandma and grandpa they might not be getting any visits for a while. You do the best you can, given the circumstances. If you are able to work from home, then work from home. Wear masks outside and in public places.

I don't agree with keeping everybody in their homes indefinitely. I don't think it makes any sense based on the reasons I've previously indicated. Ultimately none of us will ever get the full vindication we're looking for because we will never know the counterfactual.

That “leftist” taking point is literally out of the mouths of conservative political leadership and talking heads.

But go on Mr. Mod. Turn this into “leftists” talk. You’ve been on record for why the shut-downs are bad, why the NBA shutdown is bad because hey, only elderly die.

As for “from people that still have jobs”... no, I struggle as much if not more than the next guy. But I’m not willing to haphazardly risk others for my own economic benefit.

On Tuesday, that take was summed up by Indiana congressman (R) Trey Hollingsworth, who told a radio-show host that it’s Congress’s job to sit Americans down and explain to them that dying in a pandemic isn’t as bad as the havoc said pandemic is wreaking on the economy.

“No one reached out to me and said, ‘as a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’” Patrick said. “And if that’s the exchange, I’m all in.”

From Republicans in Congress to Hannity, Limbaugh, Ingraham, Carlson... theyve all argued that the elderly dying at the alter of the economy is some noble sacrifice.... so spare me with your “leftist” talking point BS

[Dresden]

I think the whole premise behind locking things down was that it would prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. But hand in hand with that, was supposed to be widespread testing, and then tracing. You allow anyone who tests negative to go back out. You isolate those who test positive, and you trace anyone they've been in touch with, and isolate them. That's what worked in Wuhan and S. Korea.

Without the testing component, it will come back once we open things up again. If it's done gradually, and smartly, you might at least be able to keep cases from spiking again. But testing is really the key, which is why it's so disappointing that the US has not been able to get more testing done.

[AKfanatic]

I think the whole premise behind locking things down was that it would prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. But hand in hand with that, was supposed to be widespread testing, and then tracing. You allow anyone who tests negative to go back out. You isolate those who test positive, and you trace anyone they've been in touch with, and isolate them. That's what worked in Wuhan and S. Korea.

Without the testing component, it will come back once we open things up again. If it's done gradually, and smartly, you might at least be able to keep cases from spiking again. But testing is really the key, which is why it's so disappointing that the US has not been able to get more testing done.

That’s key. We in the US have done minimal testing and tracking. Without that, we can’t reasonably expect to open up the economy

[Jimako10]

I think the whole premise behind locking things down was that it would prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. But hand in hand with that, was supposed to be widespread testing, and then tracing. You allow anyone who tests negative to go back out. You isolate those who test positive, and you trace anyone they've been in touch with, and isolate them. That's what worked in Wuhan and S. Korea.

Without the testing component, it will come back once we open things up again. If it's done gradually, and smartly, you might at least be able to keep cases from spiking again. But testing is really the key, which is why it's so disappointing that the US has not been able to get more testing done.

This x 1000.

When the antibody test comes out fully and available, it should make things a lot easier on everyone since it will even be able to detect even the asymptomatic ones. It should be widely available by June hopefully.

[dice]

Another anti-body test, this time from LA:

"Of the 1,000 individuals tested in early April, 4.1 percent were found to have COVID-19 antibodies. When adjusting for statistical margin of error, the study finds that 2.8 percent to 5.6 percent of the county's adult population has already been infected, which translates to 221,000 to 442,000 people. There were nearly 8,000 confirmed cases when the study was conducted, which leads researchers to believe the county is underreporting infections by a factor of 28 to 55."

...

If infections are this vastly underreported, then the mortality rate of COVID-19 is substantially lower than current estimates."

It's possible these testing kits are flawed, but they all seem to be showing similarly high rates of COVID 19 infection among the populations tested. These tests so far have all been done in communities known to have high or fairly high rates of infection, so these results wouldn't be accurate for the whole country.

A factor of 28 to 55 would be much higher than 2.8-5.6% at this point. Based on those numbers Covid would be in line with just the regular flu in terms of mortality.

Dresden, if the above is correct. Don't the protesters have a point? If we gave up constitutional rights and ruined the economy for another flu that would be terrible.

we know that this is not "another flu." it has required a SHUTDOWN OF THE US ECONOMY just to put COVID-19 as a best case scenario on the outer limits of annual flu deaths

[dice]

So basically, you got a lotta problems?

Noted.

what a weird response

first of all, i only noted two problems. and they're both quite legit

secondly, you DON'T have a problem with political propaganda rallies funded by right-wing donors masquerading as public health protests during a pandemic? no problem w/ deranged conspiracy theories being pushed? no problem with people bringing guns to rallies while not practicing social distancing? this is what madness looks like:



there are very likely scattered sane individuals who are protesting for legitimate reasons, but they are being drowned out. you can probably spot them...they're wearing masks. maybe they just don't realize that it's not nearly enough in that environment. then there are the bozos w/ ****-eating grins on their faces who clearly are just thrilled to be engaging in group activities on a nice day again. and the pseudo-legitimacy of a protest like this allows them to tell themselves that indulging their base desires isn't completely selfish

I have zero issues with peaceful protests of any sort, now if they start burning and looting property I'll take issue over their tactics but for just milling around with sign? Hell no this is america, you have that right, so I guess we'll have to disagree there.

so clearly it's all about the money with you. it's ok to endanger the public health if it's done with financial motivation? well, sorry, that's a wildly irresponsible position. and frankly, not particularly logical. and not just because human health has a financial component

you do understand that the impact to the economy could have actually been WORSE if we just carried on as normal in the face of a looming pandemic, right? millions of deaths and public terror inevitably impacts an economy in a major way

IF i was shut down and bleeding money then I might be out there with them, and i've never protested a dam thing, ever.

i AM shut down and bleeding money. this is likely to impact my life PERMANENTLY. but i'm not protesting because i don't operate out of craven self-interest

So you can have "problems" and call them bozo's and selfish, worry if they have ***eating grins, or make bold assumptions about how this was started, that is also your right, but respect that its my right to disagree with you.

not bold assumptions. informed opinion based on available information. articles, photos, audio, video

Frankly I suspect that if Trump was complaining about the protests and wanting them shut down then you'd probably do a quick 180 and support the protesters, my opinion wouldn't change.

then you are a terrible judge of character. because i would never, ever support the way these protesters are operating. i deal in logic, not emotion. my opinions are not informed by donald freaking trump's words or actions in any way, shape or manner. i'm not like his sycophant supporters, many of whom will cheer what he says one minute, then cheer when he says the exact opposite later

So basically my message to you is suck it up, deal with it in your own way...

isn't that what everybody is doing? wtf are you talking about? that doesn't mean i have to keep my mouth shut when others are endangering society. that would be irresponsible. but you're equally free to suck it up and keep your mouth shut

In the meantime I believe they have a right to protest over losing their livelihoods.

that's clearly not what's going on in the vast majority of cases. and nobody has said that people don't have a RIGHT to protest over losing their livelihoods. you're making stuff up...out of emotion

the very obvious POINT is that it's completely irresponsible to gather in large groups without social distancing at this point in time. it's also irresponsible for political groups to be manipulating the fears of the general population. if you don't have a problem with that, which you clearly don't, that's on your conscience. but don't pretend that there's anything honorable about it

and by the way, before this COVID-19 thing exploded i had expressed my opinion that having some form of a universal basic income was responsible public policy. you opposed it. so it is somewhat ironic that you now express support for desperate people endangering public health because...they have no income coming in

FORTY PERCENT of americans do not have as much as $400 in savings to draw upon when necessary. because the social safety net in america is full of holes. never more apparent than right now. it's a moral travesty

[Payt10]

All the “low risk” vs “high risk” return to work talk is weakly disguised “they’re willing to die for the economy” narrative.

Oh, please.. Spare me the leftist talking point nonsense. Nobody wants people to die. It's really irritating to hear this crap from people that still have jobs scolding people for even raising the question about opening up the economy while millions have lost theirs.

The way you protect the most vulnerable is to keep them at home and tell grandma and grandpa they might not be getting any visits for a while. You do the best you can, given the circumstances. If you are able to work from home, then work from home. Wear masks outside and in public places.

I don't agree with keeping everybody in their homes indefinitely. I don't think it makes any sense based on the reasons I've previously indicated. Ultimately none of us will ever get the full vindication we're looking for because we will never know the counterfactual.

That “leftist” taking point is literally out of the mouths of conservative political leadership and talking heads.

But go on Mr. Mod. Turn this into “leftists” talk. You’ve been on record for why the shut-downs are bad, why the NBA shutdown is bad because hey, only elderly die.

As for “from people that still have jobs”... no, I struggle as much if not more than the next guy. But I’m not willing to haphazardly risk others for my own economic benefit.

On Tuesday, that take was summed up by Indiana congressman (R) Trey Hollingsworth, who told a radio-show host that it’s Congress’s job to sit Americans down and explain to them that dying in a pandemic isn’t as bad as the havoc said pandemic is wreaking on the economy.

“No one reached out to me and said, ‘as a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’” Patrick said. “And if that’s the exchange, I’m all in.”

From Republicans in Congress to Hannity, Limbaugh, Ingraham, Carlson... theyve all argued that the elderly dying at the alter of the economy is some Nobel sacrifice.... so spare me with your “leftist” talking point BS

One man's idiotic statement does not represent how the majority of Americans, and even Republicans feel. Most importantly, it's certainly not how I feel. Anybody with half a brain knows the economy and the virus MUST be balanced. You cannot put all your focus on saving people's lives while forgetting about economic impact, just as much as you can't only focus on getting people back to work while letting everybody die.

Your tendency to constantly straw-man people and misrepresent their viewpoints is beyond irritating. The only reason you even made that point is because you wanted to paint me as a monster for bringing up the idea that some people should be allowed to go back to work. You can't possibly fathom how people can have differing opinions, so you resort to cheap shot tactics in order to deflect from a perfectly reasonable discussion.

[AKfanatic]

Oh, please.. Spare me the leftist talking point nonsense. Nobody wants people to die. It's really irritating to hear this crap from people that still have jobs scolding people for even raising the question about opening up the economy while millions have lost theirs.

The way you protect the most vulnerable is to keep them at home and tell grandma and grandpa they might not be getting any visits for a while. You do the best you can, given the circumstances. If you are able to work from home, then work from home. Wear masks outside and in public places.

I don't agree with keeping everybody in their homes indefinitely. I don't think it makes any sense based on the reasons I've previously indicated. Ultimately none of us will ever get the full vindication we're looking for because we will never know the counterfactual.

That “leftist” taking point is literally out of the mouths of conservative political leadership and talking heads.

But go on Mr. Mod. Turn this into “leftists” talk. You’ve been on record for why the shut-downs are bad, why the NBA shutdown is bad because hey, only elderly die.

As for “from people that still have jobs”... no, I struggle as much if not more than the next guy. But I’m not willing to haphazardly risk others for my own economic benefit.

On Tuesday, that take was summed up by Indiana congressman (R) Trey Hollingsworth, who told a radio-show host that it’s Congress’s job to sit Americans down and explain to them that dying in a pandemic isn’t as bad as the havoc said pandemic is wreaking on the economy.

“No one reached out to me and said, ‘as a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’” Patrick said. “And if that’s the exchange, I’m all in.”

From Republicans in Congress to Hannity, Limbaugh, Ingraham, Carlson... theyve all argued that the elderly dying at the alter of the economy is some Nobel sacrifice.... so spare me with your “leftist” talking point BS

One man's idiotic statement does not represent how the majority of Americans, and even Republicans feel. Most importantly, it's certainly not how I feel.

Your tendency to constantly straw-man people and misrepresent their viewpoints is beyond irritating. The only reason you even made that point is because you wanted to paint me as a monster for bringing up the idea that some people should be allowed to go back to work. You can't possibly fathom how people can have differing opinions, so you resort to cheap shot tactics used to deflect from a perfectly reasonable discussion.

I asked you legitimate questions as to how...

You quoted two lines and ignored any of the concerns/questions only responding with the same “low risk/high risk” talk without truly answering other than saying you separate them.

I asked how. If you want to discuss, discuss. But you don’t. you state and restate without explaining how those statements would truly work without causing more issues.


And..... that “one man” has been numerous men (and women). You accused me of a “leftist” taking point. I gave you two very quick examples of the Right saying exactly that. There’s numerous more.

[dice]

You know, none of this would have happened if the govt. had just gotten support out to workers and small business owners quicker. I could be wrong, but you don't read about these sorts of protests going on in other countries, or not to this extent. Many European countries just paid workers directly about 70% of their salaries, and had other programs in place for business owners or the self employed, and they went into effect immediately.

The way we did it has been cumbersome, slow, and inefficient. IMO, that's what causing quite a bit of the unrest. Plus it's being capitalized on by some far right groups to make a name for themselves.

cumbersome and inefficient? US congress?

[GimmeDat]

These loonies protesting make my blood boil. It's one thing seeing these people spout their rubbish at your average rally, but this time, they immediately affect everybody with these congregations. You group up like this, you endanger every single person in the community, and you set the timeline back on all of this. The 3 words that come to mind are ignorant, selfish and entitled.

Some groups reactions to this event demonstrate how thin the veil of civility is in our society - people face a minor level of inconvenience and suddenly it's every man for themselves hysteria or ignorant protests.

I said minor level of inconvenience there, which it has been for many, but I don't mean to underplay that many people will face financial difficulties, lose/lost jobs, effect on mental health, etc.

It is really important that things open up when they can... but slowly and incrementally, when the time is right.

Over here, we haven't opened things up just yet, but we will slowly move down a level in terms of restrictions, perhaps in a month or so's time, and that's a pretty reasonable decision. The US has 142 deaths per million. Australia has 2.68. The fact that the US has nearly hit 50,000 deaths, it continues to develop, and people want to reverse the restrictions this early? Must be the same people telling us a month ago that it was nothing to worry about.

There's a big sacrifice that needs to be made, and a recession will follow, no doubt. But that was a foregone conclusion. We're going through what is (hopefully) a once in a lifetime pandemic. Trying to rush back to normality will only be counterproductive.

[2018C3]

78% of US workers survive paycheck to paycheck.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2019/01/11/live-paycheck-to-paycheck-government-shutdown/#170d999e4f10

Yea, the virus sucks, and kills people.

People need to grow up and start working, The death toll from this virus is a far lower percentage than the results of a complete economy collapse will entail, it is mind blowing to me why some can't comprehend this.

We are not living in some fairy land where everything is even and fair. This is the situation we are in.

[rosenthall]

Of note, NY just released the results of its first round of serological testing.

It was done via press release, which you can see here: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-statewide-antibody-testing-survey-will

Condensed results are here: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWTOsGkWoAA-3X-?format=jpg&name=900x900

So, after first pass, it looks like 21% of the city had it at the end of March. The usual caveats apply about selection effects of people taking the tests, but still interesting.

If we take these as being roughly accurate, it means that about 1.7-1.8 million people in the city have it, and going by confirmed deaths it means the mortality rate is about 0.6%.

Overall, I find this news discouraging. I was beginning to foster hopes that the true IFR of the disease was closer to something around 0.3%. This is a far cry from the 3-4% that's commonly reported in some places, but 0.6% of tens of millions of people is still a lot of dead folks.

I'd guess the age-adjusted IFR for people under 45 is probably closer to 0.1% or 0.2%, but we'll find out.

[Chi town]

Of note, NY just released the results of its first round of serological testing.

It was done via press release, which you can see here: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-statewide-antibody-testing-survey-will

Condensed results are here: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWTOsGkWoAA-3X-?format=jpg&name=900x900

So, after first pass, it looks like 21% of the city had it at the end of March. The usual caveats apply about selection effects of people taking the tests, but still interesting.

If we take these as being roughly accurate, it means that about 1.7-1.8 million people in the city have it, and going by confirmed deaths it means the mortality rate is about 0.6%.

Overall, I find this news discouraging. I was beginning to foster hopes that the true IFR of the disease was closer to something around 0.3%. This is a far cry from the 3-4% that's commonly reported in some places, but 0.6% of tens of millions of people is still a lot of dead folks.

I'd guess the age-adjusted IFR for people under 45 is probably closer to 0.1% or 0.2%, but we'll find out.

Yep. Saw that. Confirms what many of us have said... it’s been way underreported due to o’clock of testing. I’d guess we have much higher numbers in the Bay Area too.

[rosenthall]

Of note, NY just released the results of its first round of serological testing.

It was done via press release, which you can see here: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-statewide-antibody-testing-survey-will

Condensed results are here: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWTOsGkWoAA-3X-?format=jpg&name=900x900

So, after first pass, it looks like 21% of the city had it at the end of March. The usual caveats apply about selection effects of people taking the tests, but still interesting.

If we take these as being roughly accurate, it means that about 1.7-1.8 million people in the city have it, and going by confirmed deaths it means the mortality rate is about 0.6%.

Overall, I find this news discouraging. I was beginning to foster hopes that the true IFR of the disease was closer to something around 0.3%. This is a far cry from the 3-4% that's commonly reported in some places, but 0.6% of tens of millions of people is still a lot of dead folks.

I'd guess the age-adjusted IFR for people under 45 is probably closer to 0.1% or 0.2%, but we'll find out.

Yep. Saw that. Confirms what many of us have said... it’s been way underreported due to o’clock of testing. I’d guess we have much higher numbers in the Bay Area too.

It's underreported, but also not as underreported as some other estimates have suggested. There have been quite a few serological studies floating around putting the true case number at 50-100x the reported rate. This is more like 7-10x. Granted NYC is already pretty saturated, so the virus has run out of runway to spread itself, but as a Queens resident, I was hoping for a little better.

They are going to keep doing this every week, and I'd guess this is going to be the most reliable source about some of the vital stats for covid 19. No other place in the western hemisphere has as many verified samples for all sorts of outcomes to look at, so I'll be paying close attention.