Shams: Lonzo for Okoro

[dougthonus]

We’ll see how it goes. To me there was never any way that all three of Coby, Ayo and Tre will be on the roster in November. And given how AK operates it’s hard to imagine Coby is the one he’ll trade. Since the Jones announcement, I don’t work Ayo into the roster. I assume he’ll he traded.

In the "hard to get into AK's mind" scenario, this feels correct to me, but then on the flip side, Ayo has been one of his big hits and is super popular in Chicago. Relative to our previous discussion around marketing/PR, it will be interesting to see if that has an influence on him here.

I think trading him is definitely the right move given his UFA status next year as well. We probably would have gotten more last year, but still better to do now than not at all.

[DuckIII]

Everyone stop trying to make me like this trade... I don't, I think... maybe.

Fine, I'll give Okoro a chance.

He can't be worse than Pat or Terry right!?

From 2023 season to 2024 his MPG dropped 8.2 and then from the regular season to the playoffs it fell another 4.2 MPG. In his final playoff game with Cleveland he had 2 points & 1 steal in 16 minutes and they lost 114-105.

And yet his performance in those minutes the last two years was virtually identical. If you look a little deeper than the data, there's an explanation for this which actually makes him look even better if Bulls fans are looking for reasons to feel optimistic.

The reasons? His role declined because he got hurt and the roster changed before he got healthy again.

(A) Okoro suffered a significant shoulder injury just before Christmas. From 12/20/24 through 2/20/25 Okoro was inactive for 22 of 27 games.

(B) Prior to that Okoro had started 16 of Cleveland's 23 games and was playing the best basketball of his career. Donovan Mitchell had this to say after the injury:

“With Isaac being out, we have to continue to take our physicality to another level,” Mitchell said. “And then you’re also missing the second-best 3-point shooter in the league. I say that, like, jokingly, but not jokingly. I’m also dead serious. He’s a guy that [has been] knocking down shots, and teams want to leave him. You obviously miss him on the defensive end, but offensively, he’s been playing phenomenally for us.”

With Okoro shooting at a 49.2% clip on 2.7 attempts from deep, Mitchell isn’t exaggerating about Isaac’s two-way impact in 2024-25. Okoro also averages 0.7 steals per game and has started in 16 games while averaging 21.0 minutes this season.

(C) While Okoro was out with injury, the Cavs traded for DeAndre Hunter, who (unlike Lavert who was traded out) plays the exact same role as Okoro. And Hunter proceeded to play like an absolute beast for the Cavs.

Ergo, Okoro's minutes declined. Its not always - and in the examples of Okoro and Giddey specifically was not - true that the player is responsible for his own usage and minutes. It can be, and in these instances was, due to the external issue of being replaced by a superior player. But other players being better doesn't mean your players aren't good or desirable.

[GetBuLLish]

I was happy with the Lonzo contract because I figured we could parlay it into a good trade during the season if Lonzo showed the league he could stay healthy.

This trade is not at all what I was hoping for.

[DASMACKDOWN]

I was happy with the Lonzo contract because I figured we could parlay it into a good trade during the season if Lonzo showed the league he could stay healthy.

This trade is not at all what I was hoping for.

But then we soon realized the front office wants no part in actually putting in the work to draft any player.

It messes with AK's gym time. His words not mine.

So yes theoretically all these players could be had with draft picks in mind. Like with a normal front offices. But not us.

If we are making any trades, its going to be player for player.

[DASMACKDOWN]

I will need some convincing with Okoro though. I never liked him in Cleveland.

If you ask me, Okoro is closer to an improved Dalen Terry than he is to Patrick Williams. I think a locked in non injured Patrick is a better player and much higher ceiling.

[DuckIII]

I will need some convincing with Okoro though. I never liked him in Cleveland.

If you ask me, Okoro is closer to an improved Dalen Terry than he is to Patrick Williams. I think a locked in non injured Patrick is a better player and much higher ceiling.

I agree, but we can’t expect to ever see that version of Pat. Hopefully he’s at least good enough that he and Okoro will push each other.

Terry shouldn’t be in the NBA. The one clear good of the Okoro trade is that presumably it eliminates all regular playing time for Terry. He should never see anything but garbage time again.

[League Circles]

Everyone stop trying to make me like this trade... I don't, I think... maybe.

Fine, I'll give Okoro a chance.

He can't be worse than Pat or Terry right!?

From 2023 season to 2024 his MPG dropped 8.2 and then from the regular season to the playoffs it fell another 4.2 MPG. In his final playoff game with Cleveland he had 2 points & 1 steal in 16 minutes and they lost 114-105.

And yet his performance in those minutes the last two years was virtually identical. If you look a little deeper than the data, there's an explanation for this which actually makes him look even better if Bulls fans are looking for reasons to feel optimistic.

The reasons? His role declined because he got hurt and the roster changed before he got healthy again.

(A) Okoro suffered a significant shoulder injury just before Christmas. From 12/20/24 through 2/20/25 Okoro was inactive for 22 of 27 games.

(B) Prior to that Okoro had started 16 of Cleveland's 23 games and was playing the best basketball of his career. Donovan Mitchell had this to say after the injury:

“With Isaac being out, we have to continue to take our physicality to another level,” Mitchell said. “And then you’re also missing the second-best 3-point shooter in the league. I say that, like, jokingly, but not jokingly. I’m also dead serious. He’s a guy that [has been] knocking down shots, and teams want to leave him. You obviously miss him on the defensive end, but offensively, he’s been playing phenomenally for us.”

With Okoro shooting at a 49.2% clip on 2.7 attempts from deep, Mitchell isn’t exaggerating about Isaac’s two-way impact in 2024-25. Okoro also averages 0.7 steals per game and has started in 16 games while averaging 21.0 minutes this season.

(C) While Okoro was out with injury, the Cavs traded for DeAndre Hunter, who (unlike Lavert who was traded out) plays the exact same role as Okoro. And Hunter proceeded to play like an absolute beast for the Cavs.

Ergo, Okoro's minutes declined. Its not always - and in the examples of Okoro and Giddey specifically was not - true that the player is responsible for his own usage and minutes. It can be, and in these instances was, due to the external issue of being replaced by a superior player. But other players being better doesn't mean your players aren't good or desirable.

Great info and context, thanks. I'm a huge believer that purely circumstantial stuff has an enormous impact on how good players are perceived to be (but not on how good they actually are). Especially as a result of many traditional statistics, including playing time, shot types and frequency.

[Jcool0]

From 2023 season to 2024 his MPG dropped 8.2 and then from the regular season to the playoffs it fell another 4.2 MPG. In his final playoff game with Cleveland he had 2 points & 1 steal in 16 minutes and they lost 114-105.

And yet his performance in those minutes the last two years was virtually identical. If you look a little deeper than the data, there's an explanation for this which actually makes him look even better if Bulls fans are looking for reasons to feel optimistic.

The reasons? His role declined because he got hurt and the roster changed before he got healthy again.

(A) Okoro suffered a significant shoulder injury just before Christmas. From 12/20/24 through 2/20/25 Okoro was inactive for 22 of 27 games.

(B) Prior to that Okoro had started 16 of Cleveland's 23 games and was playing the best basketball of his career. Donovan Mitchell had this to say after the injury:

“With Isaac being out, we have to continue to take our physicality to another level,” Mitchell said. “And then you’re also missing the second-best 3-point shooter in the league. I say that, like, jokingly, but not jokingly. I’m also dead serious. He’s a guy that [has been] knocking down shots, and teams want to leave him. You obviously miss him on the defensive end, but offensively, he’s been playing phenomenally for us.”

With Okoro shooting at a 49.2% clip on 2.7 attempts from deep, Mitchell isn’t exaggerating about Isaac’s two-way impact in 2024-25. Okoro also averages 0.7 steals per game and has started in 16 games while averaging 21.0 minutes this season.

(C) While Okoro was out with injury, the Cavs traded for DeAndre Hunter, who (unlike Lavert who was traded out) plays the exact same role as Okoro. And Hunter proceeded to play like an absolute beast for the Cavs.

Ergo, Okoro's minutes declined. Its not always - and in the examples of Okoro and Giddey specifically was not - true that the player is responsible for his own usage and minutes. It can be, and in these instances was, due to the external issue of being replaced by a superior player. But other players being better doesn't mean your players aren't good or desirable.

Great info and context, thanks. I'm a huge believer that purely circumstantial stuff has an enormous impact on how good players are perceived to be (but not on how good they actually are). Especially as a result of many traditional statistics, including playing time, shot types and frequency.

FWIW he is a bust of a draft pick. being the #5 player and never averaging 10+ ppg is not good and playing decent defense doesn't make up for that. Could be turn it around here? Sure anything is possible. Most likely this long in the NBA he is who he is. Which is someone not that much better the PWill, who if you belive the reports has no market value and i believe Okoro was seen as having little value before AK stepped in.

[DuckIII]

Great info and context, thanks. I'm a huge believer that purely circumstantial stuff has an enormous impact on how good players are perceived to be (but not on how good they actually are). Especially as a result of many traditional statistics, including playing time, shot types and frequency.

There's not always a complex or circumstantial reason of course, but often enough there is that its a good idea to dig a little. I found all that info and typed up that post in about 10 minutes and I'm hardly a basketball research wizard.

Especially when discussing players from teams we don't follow. We now have two perfect examples on the roster. Some people - including some Bulls fans even today - regurgitate the tired narrative that Giddey can't be that good and can't be part of a contender because he "was played out of the playoffs." Because that and making jokes about girls is what the superficial, internet-dopes were saying without analysis. It took about 3 minutes of digging to see what a load of bullocks all that was.

Of course, sometimes guys get demoted because they played bad and that's all there is to it. That doesn't appear to be the case with either Giddey or Okoro though.

[DuckIII]

FWIW he is a bust of a draft pick. being the #5 player and never averaging 10+ ppg is not good and playing decent defense doesn't make up for that.

Good thing we didn't draft him with a high lottery pick then.

[Jcool0]

FWIW he is a bust of a draft pick. being the #5 player and never averaging 10+ ppg is not good and playing decent defense doesn't make up for that.

Good think we didn't draft him with a high lottery pick then.

No we just traded for a bad player. But hey if that's the type you want you are getting your wish.

[DuckIII]

FWIW he is a bust of a draft pick. being the #5 player and never averaging 10+ ppg is not good and playing decent defense doesn't make up for that.

Good think we didn't draft him with a high lottery pick then.

No we just traded for a bad player. But hey if that's the type you want you are getting your wish.

[Jcool0]

Good think we didn't draft him with a high lottery pick then.

No we just traded for a bad player. But hey if that's the type you want you are getting your wish.

Read on Twitter

[drosestruts]

Ball got a better return than Porzingis if we're looking at talented but oft injured players who were traded this offseason

[DuckIII]

No we just traded for a bad player. But hey if that's the type you want you are getting your wish.

Read on Twitter

I didn't realize alba had chimed in with a meme. I retract everything. Jesus, we're screwed.

[League Circles]

FWIW he is a bust of a draft pick. being the #5 player and never averaging 10+ ppg is not good and playing decent defense doesn't make up for that.

Good think we didn't draft him with a high lottery pick then.

No we just traded for a bad player. But hey if that's the type you want you are getting your wish.

I mean, he's a good defender and above league average efficiency scorer, including being a competent 3 point shooter. How on earth is that a "bad" player?

[Jcool0]

Good think we didn't draft him with a high lottery pick then.

No we just traded for a bad player. But hey if that's the type you want you are getting your wish.

I mean, he's a good defender and above league average efficiency scorer, including being a competent 3 point shooter. How on earth is that a "bad" player?

Calling him a good defender and average efficiency (when its on super low volume) is being generous.

[kodo]

Pretty much every argument for why Okoro is a bad trade could be applied to LA Caruso when we got him. A good defender, can't score (6 ppg), will not develop into a star, excellent impact metrics. Caruso was actually far worse on offense (54% TS) compared to Okoro (59% TS). Caruso was not a star defender when we got him didn't make any all-defensive teams.

It's a very similar move to outbidding LAL for AC, and cap adjusted it's about the same dollar amount. Just because you make the same bet twice doesn't mean we'll get the same results, but the methodology is the same.

[League Circles]

No we just traded for a bad player. But hey if that's the type you want you are getting your wish.

I mean, he's a good defender and above league average efficiency scorer, including being a competent 3 point shooter. How on earth is that a "bad" player?

Calling him a good defender and average efficiency (when its on super low volume) is being generous.

I admit I haven't watched him a lot, but my casual observation and understanding of his reputation is that he's definitely a good defender. And he's not an average efficiency scorer. He's been notably above league average for each of the last 4 seasons. Just cause a guy is low usage doesn't mean he's bad and there's nothing generous about it, it's just a fact that he's been consistently efficient. Often times an efficient, low volume scorer is just playing smart, especially if on a good team, like Cleveland. You always need one or two low usage guys in a 5 man unit, and they usually need to be good defenders if you want your team to be good, unless they are extremely efficient scorers or maybe a great playmaker.

He's basically an upgrade from Patrick and Ayo on a better contract.

[Jcool0]

Pretty much every argument for why Okoro is a bad trade could be applied to LA Caruso when we got him. A good defender, can't score (6 ppg), will not develop into a star, excellent impact metrics. Caruso was actually far worse on offense (54% TS) compared to Okoro (59% TS). Caruso was not a star defender when we got him didn't make any all-defensive teams.

It's a very similar move to outbidding LAL for AC, and cap adjusted it's about the same dollar amount. Just because you make the same bet twice doesn't mean we'll get the same results, but the methodology is the same.

Alex Caruso was one of the best defensive guards in his last year in LA and you could make the argument he was one of the best defenders overall. He wasnt going to make an All Defensive team playing 15-20 mpg in LA. Its why he didn't make the team this year with OKC playing 20 MPG. Not sure why you need to knock Caruso to prop up Okoro.