2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th: PT 2

[Grodoboldo]

If you go the route of taking Hayes, you have to add more size as well. Coby is 6-4 sub 200, Zach is 6-6 200, Hayes is 6-5 about 200.
Depending upon the coach, that is going to be a tricky lineup to pair well defensively. WCJ would have to be on the floor but you need a OPJ or bigger sized F as well.

Which is why I hate Hayes esp bc your entire roster is filled with 6-5s 3 position just to fill a need at pg.
Its not like any of these guys can play and defend 3 positions to make it work.

And hayes is another meh White, Carter type pick just for fit who doesnt move the needle.
Low ceiling starter that will take another 4 yrs to develop.

I am fine with Hayes being the pick. I like him a lot. I prefer Deni because I think his upside is better and so is his roster fit.
I don't love the idea of a 3 guard line up and sacrificing size, I also think defensively asking Zach, Coby and Hayes to guard is going to be a challenge given the lack of size and individual abilities without having a rim protector and another stout defender on the floor.

Which is why I agree with you that we'll have to eventually address size. But for now, take the BPA, don't overthink it. Oh, and if Karnisovas believes that Deni is BPA, then by all means, let's pick him.

[wonderboy2]

Gafford was not better than White this year that’s crazy talk. I swear some of you guys are either blind, don’t watch any games, or know nonthing about basketball. I love Gaffords game though. But White was basically the hottest rookie for the last month before the league shut down. One he started dude was on fire.

[TheSuzerain]

White had a good February. That was pretty much it.

Our end of season schedule was laughably bad and we were a known scrub team at that point so it's not like teams are getting up to play us.

Despite this we went 3-11 to close the season in February/March.

[wonderboy2]

White had a good February. That was pretty much it.

Our end of season schedule was laughably bad and we were a known scrub team at that point so it's not like teams are getting up to play us.

Despite this we went 3-11 to close the season in February/March.

White had a good February and had some damn good games before that to. He was up and down but that’s typical for a rookie coming off the bench. He had a successful rookie year and broke some records during the season. If our 4th pick is able to replicate that it would be viewed as a success. And to talk about the teams record to close out is pretty odd. Lavine wasn’t playing due to injury. Carter, Porter, Markannan were on minutes restrictions and were rusty from coming back from injuries. The bulls sucked all season with Sato running the point and dude is 29 years old. I tell you want though. Teams were actually scheming against Coby towards the end of the season. Teams never schemed against Sato. The game plan was to pressure Sato full court the full game(which hardly ever happens to pgs). Then leave Sato open once he gives up the ball. When Sato drives teams stayed home on the shooters because they didn’t believe Sato would shoot. That led to the bulls having to take tough shots.

[wonderboy2]

I’m looking at all of the point guards in this draft. Ball, Haliburton and Hayes would be great. Ball for all the hate he gets does absolutely everything better than our starting pg last season. It’s a win win situation no matter how you slice it. I guess that’s the good thing about having the worst starting pg in the NBA from last season. There’s nowhere to go but up.

[MrFortune3]

If we're drafting Hayes, he better be starting over White pretty quickly.

We desperately need a playmaker, and that's Hayes best attribute right now.

Hayes/Lavine is a solid pairing on paper.

Hayes isn't starting over White. Coby just made the 2nd rookie team and came on as a scorer late in the season.
Hayes is beginning as the 3rd guard at best.

I don't particularly care what rookie team he made.

That mostly means he was given the greenest of lights whereas other rookies had to fight for minutes.

White was significantly worse than Gafford this year and nobody is claiming Gafford has a spot locked down.

Gafford is not starting ahead of WCJ nor Lauri. Gafford was not the #7 overall pick. Gafford did not set any rookie scoring records off the bench.
Gafford was not coming on as a scorer late in the season.
Coby was averaging 26.1 ppg over his last 9 when the season ended. Over Coby's last 11 games(IE when he started getting prolonged PT and a more defined role) He averaged just over 33 minutes a game and 23.7 ppg.

So you think a slightly undersized(given his frame) rookie who's best attribute is his play making skills is going to start over the recent #7 overall pick who was coming on at the end of the season, made the NBA all rookie second team and is projected to get better this upcoming season...

Good luck with that dream.

[MrFortune3]

Which is why I hate Hayes esp bc your entire roster is filled with 6-5s 3 position just to fill a need at pg.
Its not like any of these guys can play and defend 3 positions to make it work.

And hayes is another meh White, Carter type pick just for fit who doesnt move the needle.
Low ceiling starter that will take another 4 yrs to develop.

I am fine with Hayes being the pick. I like him a lot. I prefer Deni because I think his upside is better and so is his roster fit.
I don't love the idea of a 3 guard line up and sacrificing size, I also think defensively asking Zach, Coby and Hayes to guard is going to be a challenge given the lack of size and individual abilities without having a rim protector and another stout defender on the floor.

Which is why I agree with you that we'll have to eventually address size. But for now, take the BPA, don't overthink it. Oh, and if Karnisovas believes that Deni is BPA, then by all means, let's pick him.

Of the 3 most likely players we'd have available to us when we pick I like Deni, Wiseman and Hayes in that order.
I agree go with BPA, just don't like the potential roster imbalance.

[PlayerUp]

We have 0 clue how good Hayes can be at the next level. It's anyones guess.

What we do know is he is one of the youngest in this draft and has some solid skillsets already.

- Great footwork
- Step back shot
- Good form
- Good passing/vision
- Good pacing
- Can create
- Versatile player
- Good size for a point guard

The cons

- He isn't super athletic
- Lacks that speed burst
- Left hand dominant
- Needs to continue working on his handles and turnovers

Overall Hayes has alot of good skillsets. I think alot are turned off simply because there isn't anything flashy about him. Since Edwards/Ball expected to be gone, he is currently #4 on my list after Deni.

[TheSuzerain]

Hayes isn't starting over White. Coby just made the 2nd rookie team and came on as a scorer late in the season.
Hayes is beginning as the 3rd guard at best.

I don't particularly care what rookie team he made.

That mostly means he was given the greenest of lights whereas other rookies had to fight for minutes.

White was significantly worse than Gafford this year and nobody is claiming Gafford has a spot locked down.

Gafford is not starting ahead of WCJ nor Lauri. Gafford was not the #7 overall pick. Gafford did not set any rookie scoring records off the bench.
Gafford was not coming on as a scorer late in the season.
Coby was averaging 26.1 ppg over his last 9 when the season ended. Over Coby's last 11 games(IE when he started getting prolonged PT and a more defined role) He averaged just over 33 minutes a game and 23.7 ppg.

So you think a slightly undersized(given his frame) rookie who's best attribute is his play making skills is going to start over the recent #7 overall pick who was coming on at the end of the season, made the NBA all rookie second team and is projected to get better this upcoming season...

Good luck with that dream.

And yet Gafford had significantly more win shares (in significantly less minutes), a higher PER, higher VORP, higher BPM, higher RPM, a better +/-, and a better on/off.

There's really no measure by which White was more useful to a basketball team trying to win games than Gafford was.

Gafford plays an unsexy role (rim running energy big), but he plays it well. White got to play at being a top offensive option and (predictably) was terrible at it.

Sure White can improve, but there seems to be genuine confusion on this board as to how he played as a rookie. He was a clear-cut negative performer as a rookie. Period.

Go here and sort descending by TS Add. Let me know who is in the bottom 5: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_adj_shooting.html

[PlayerUp]

I don't particularly care what rookie team he made.

That mostly means he was given the greenest of lights whereas other rookies had to fight for minutes.

White was significantly worse than Gafford this year and nobody is claiming Gafford has a spot locked down.

Gafford is not starting ahead of WCJ nor Lauri. Gafford was not the #7 overall pick. Gafford did not set any rookie scoring records off the bench.
Gafford was not coming on as a scorer late in the season.
Coby was averaging 26.1 ppg over his last 9 when the season ended. Over Coby's last 11 games(IE when he started getting prolonged PT and a more defined role) He averaged just over 33 minutes a game and 23.7 ppg.

So you think a slightly undersized(given his frame) rookie who's best attribute is his play making skills is going to start over the recent #7 overall pick who was coming on at the end of the season, made the NBA all rookie second team and is projected to get better this upcoming season...

Good luck with that dream.

And yet Gafford had significantly more win shares (in significantly less minutes), a higher PER, higher VORP, higher BPM, higher RPM, a better +/-, and a better on/off.

There's really no measure by which White was more useful to a basketball team trying to win games than Gafford was.

Gafford plays an unsexy role (rim running energy big), but he plays it well. White got to play at being a top offensive option and (predictably) was terrible at it.

Sure White can improve, but there seems to be genuine confusion on this board as to how he played as a rookie. He was a clear-cut negative performer as a rookie. Period.

Go here and sort descending by TS Add. Let me know who is in the bottom 5: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_adj_shooting.html

White was a rookie though and we all know he sucked for most of the season.

Stats are flawed with this team. Shaq Harrison, Kris Dunn, and Denzel Valentine all had the highest RPM last season for the Bulls and we might let all 3 walk this offseason. Reality is the entire Bulls team was a negative last season. Bulls only won 2 games against playoff teams and both playoff teams had injuries.

[Jvaughn]

This is a weak wing draft as well. Next draft will be better. I said yesterday this draft is loaded with playmakers. We haven't had a solid playmaker in decades. Maybe it's time we invest in one this draft.

Definitely agree. I don't much like drafting for need over BPA, but this is a rare occasion where we may be able to do both. Deni is still my #1, but Hayes is right there with him, and both would dramatically improve our ball movement and get this offense going. Letting Coby and Zach work off the ball and get more efficient shots is going to do wonders for our scoring.

I like Deni a lot, but I just don't see him developing as a primary creator. I think that's one of the reasons that he might be a little lower on my board than some people's. Secondary creator? Sure, I bet he could be a pretty competent one (also think that about Coby).
Being a primary creator is one of the things that puts Hayes ahead of him IMO.

Completely understand. And I would be surprised if Deni ever became a primary, but I think as a secondary, he'll be a huge asset on offense.

[kodo]

You might as well throw out +/- stats for evaluating 19 year old rookies. And for espn's RPM, a lot of guys throw it out for evaluating anybody as espn keeps changing the formula with no transparency as to why or how.

Trae Young was 17th on his team for +/-, -4.1.
Devin Booker was 21st on his team for +/-, -4.9.
Kyrie Irving was 13th on his team for +/-, -3.2.

Coby White was 13th on his team for +/-, -2.5.

19 year old PGs on bad teams have usually resulted in terrible +/- numbers, regardless of talent. I felt Boylen didn't do anything to improve White's rookie season, such as defining his role or putting him in situations to succeed. He just gave Coby the keys and he was expected to make crap up because our set offense was so ineffective. Both Lavine & Coby were given the job of safety valve, make something up when the set offense breaks down. But where that's a last option for most team, for Chicago it was basically every possession.

Coby had the 2nd highest usage rate on the team. His usage of 24.4% is higher than Kyle Lowry's on Toronto. This is just a ridiculous amount of responsibility for a rook, who just started playing the PG position for the first time last year in NC.

Coby had a truly awful 1st half of a season, but a lot of it was due to decisions by the organization. It's been said before and politely hinted by Eversley, but this organization was probably the worst in the NBA at young player development.

[cjbulls]

Gafford is not starting ahead of WCJ nor Lauri. Gafford was not the #7 overall pick. Gafford did not set any rookie scoring records off the bench.
Gafford was not coming on as a scorer late in the season.
Coby was averaging 26.1 ppg over his last 9 when the season ended. Over Coby's last 11 games(IE when he started getting prolonged PT and a more defined role) He averaged just over 33 minutes a game and 23.7 ppg.

So you think a slightly undersized(given his frame) rookie who's best attribute is his play making skills is going to start over the recent #7 overall pick who was coming on at the end of the season, made the NBA all rookie second team and is projected to get better this upcoming season...

Good luck with that dream.

And yet Gafford had significantly more win shares (in significantly less minutes), a higher PER, higher VORP, higher BPM, higher RPM, a better +/-, and a better on/off.

There's really no measure by which White was more useful to a basketball team trying to win games than Gafford was.

Gafford plays an unsexy role (rim running energy big), but he plays it well. White got to play at being a top offensive option and (predictably) was terrible at it.

Sure White can improve, but there seems to be genuine confusion on this board as to how he played as a rookie. He was a clear-cut negative performer as a rookie. Period.

Go here and sort descending by TS Add. Let me know who is in the bottom 5: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_adj_shooting.html

White was a rookie though and we all know he sucked for most of the season.

Stats are flawed with this team. Shaq Harrison, Kris Dunn, and Denzel Valentine all had the highest RPM last season for the Bulls and we might let all 3 walk this offseason. Reality is the entire Bulls team was a negative last season. Bulls only won 2 games against playoff teams and both playoff teams had injuries.

No no, it's much better to point out flawed advanced stats for guys that play 12mpg and let that decide which rookie is better.

Last year's rookie RPM leader was Ryan Broekhoff. I guess the league really f'd up by not drafting him #1! Hopefully the Bulls can get the max extension ready for him in a couple of years when he hits FA.

Some people just like to be purposefully obtuse.

[Ugly Duckling]

I’m looking at all of the point guards in this draft. Ball, Haliburton and Hayes would be great. Ball for all the hate he gets does absolutely everything better than our starting pg last season. It’s a win win situation no matter how you slice it. I guess that’s the good thing about having the worst starting pg in the NBA from last season. There’s nowhere to go but up.

Ball I'd take a chance on if he fell, but Haliburton and Hayes don't have enough upside for me personally. I'd rather run Coby at the point and take the BPA

[wonderboy2]

I’m looking at all of the point guards in this draft. Ball, Haliburton and Hayes would be great. Ball for all the hate he gets does absolutely everything better than our starting pg last season. It’s a win win situation no matter how you slice it. I guess that’s the good thing about having the worst starting pg in the NBA from last season. There’s nowhere to go but up.

Ball I'd take a chance on if he fell, but Haliburton and Hayes don't have enough upside for me personally. I'd rather run Coby at the point and take the BPA

I don’t blame you. Drafting Hayes that high gives me bad vibes. He might have improved a lot though in these last 6 months so I’m trusting AK to make the right decision. I just don’t see him beating out Coby or Lavine in the backcourt. Haliburton is intriguing but taking him at 4 is alittle risky.

[wonderboy2]

I really like Aaron Naismith. I think dude is going to be one of those players people regret not taking. His shot is so pure. He’s a good team defender to. I think he can be like a JJ Reddick type player with better defense.

[MrFortune3]

I don't particularly care what rookie team he made.

That mostly means he was given the greenest of lights whereas other rookies had to fight for minutes.

White was significantly worse than Gafford this year and nobody is claiming Gafford has a spot locked down.

Gafford is not starting ahead of WCJ nor Lauri. Gafford was not the #7 overall pick. Gafford did not set any rookie scoring records off the bench.
Gafford was not coming on as a scorer late in the season.
Coby was averaging 26.1 ppg over his last 9 when the season ended. Over Coby's last 11 games(IE when he started getting prolonged PT and a more defined role) He averaged just over 33 minutes a game and 23.7 ppg.

So you think a slightly undersized(given his frame) rookie who's best attribute is his play making skills is going to start over the recent #7 overall pick who was coming on at the end of the season, made the NBA all rookie second team and is projected to get better this upcoming season...

Good luck with that dream.

And yet Gafford had significantly more win shares (in significantly less minutes), a higher PER, higher VORP, higher BPM, higher RPM, a better +/-, and a better on/off.

There's really no measure by which White was more useful to a basketball team trying to win games than Gafford was.

Gafford plays an unsexy role (rim running energy big), but he plays it well. White got to play at being a top offensive option and (predictably) was terrible at it.

Sure White can improve, but there seems to be genuine confusion on this board as to how he played as a rookie. He was a clear-cut negative performer as a rookie. Period.

Go here and sort descending by TS Add. Let me know who is in the bottom 5: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_adj_shooting.html

There is no confusion on how he played as a rookie. He had a rough rookie season but he finished strong. The excitement about Coby is due to his play once he got a semi defined role and PT.

You might also remember that Coby White was one of 3 young players on a team of young players that Evs mentioned by name when he spoke about the Bulls after getting the job.

[KevinPandawong]

The cons

- He isn't super athletic
- Lacks that speed burst
- Left hand dominant
- Needs to continue working on his handles and turnovers

I feel like Hayes' weaknesses are getting hand-waved too easily, when they seem very troubling for a prospect deemed to be a 'primary ballhandler'.

Athleticism: Hayes in the athletic LNB was a disaster, in the much slower BBL he looked promising. What's his transition going to look like in the NBA?

First step: Coby White could be a lead guard and thrive in the PnR if only he had a first step, but Hayes' is even worse.

Right hand: I wouldn't fault teenage prospects for needing to work on their weak-hand, but again Hayes is being touted as a 'lead guard'/'primary ballhandler' and his proficiency passing with his right hand is abysmal.

Hayes' NBA role to me is as a 3nD guard and tertiary ballhandler, which Haliburton does much much better.

[MrFortune3]

We have 0 clue how good Hayes can be at the next level. It's anyones guess.

What we do know is he is one of the youngest in this draft and has some solid skillsets already.

- Great footwork
- Step back shot
- Good form
- Good passing/vision
- Good pacing
- Can create
- Versatile player
- Good size for a point guard

The cons

- He isn't super athletic
- Lacks that speed burst
- Left hand dominant
- Needs to continue working on his handles and turnovers

Overall Hayes has alot of good skillsets. I think alot are turned off simply because there isn't anything flashy about him. Since Edwards/Ball expected to be gone, he is currently #4 on my list after Deni.

I think most are just running with the narrative that this is a weak draft and as such they target guys who are not as flashy as they want them to be and hammer down on the negatives.
Every player in every draft is flawed.

Luka was knocked for athletic ability and build, Zion was knocked for his body type and style of play. Finding the right player for your team matters more than anything else.

[Grodoboldo]

The cons

- He isn't super athletic
- Lacks that speed burst
- Left hand dominant
- Needs to continue working on his handles and turnovers

I feel like Hayes' weaknesses are getting hand-waved too easily, when they seem very troubling for a prospect deemed to be a 'primary ballhandler'.

Athleticism: Hayes in the athletic LNB was a disaster, in the much slower BBL he looked promising. What's his transition going to look like in the NBA?

First step: Coby White could be a lead guard and thrive in the PnR if only he had a first step, but Hayes' is even worse.

Right hand: I wouldn't fault teenage prospects for needing to work on their weak-hand, but again Hayes is being touted as a 'lead guard'/'primary ballhandler' and his proficiency passing with his right hand is abysmal.

Hayes' NBA role to me is as a 3nD guard and tertiary ballhandler, which Haliburton does much much better.

Even though I agree on Hayes weaknesses (though not on the intensity), tertiary ball handler doesn't fit the bill. He's a 19yo main ball handler on a pro league. When comparing him to Hali, who has a much harder time creating his own shot against a set defense, you can see his advantage in P&R situations.
Hali is a very interesting prospect. But when comparing him to Hayes, if I had to guess that one of them would only work as a secondary ball handler, it would be Hali.

I'll plug this awesome in depth analysis of Hayes game that I found on PD Web's (https://www.patreon.com/user?u=24373441) patreon page that addresses these concerns.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1K4pWh6JnouEkE_cwfZRpNV40ncR-DHouWCWJuU6cQ70/edit?usp=sharing