OT: Bears Talk - Justin Fields era begins

[dougthonus]

The real issue is that there it's like a pyramid- you can have a zillion guys at the bottom, but at each level they progress, they get culled out. There are only X number of high schools, which feed something like x/100 colleges, and your QB has to come from one of about 50 colleges. So each year there are really only 50 viable targets, and except for the outliers, like your occassional QB from a place like North Dakota State, there are probably only about 25 or so colleges that will produce the majority of NFL QB's. And of those 25, maybe 10 will have a QB with NFL potential in any given year. So you're really looking at about 10 guys to fill the needed slots.

I agree the issue is that QB skill is somewhat like a pyramid. There simply exists a gap between the very best and the next tier. That obviously doesn't have to be the case. It could be the case where there is a threshold of talent and basically 1000s of guys could meet that threshold, but it isn't. The physical / mental / skill trait combination is rare enough where there exists are pretty huge gap in the abilities of the best / next tier like in a pyramid.

The fact that there aren't more schools, more people, more whatever doesn't really matter though. It's just in the end that there is pyramid in talent even at the very top, and you can't make up for it in depth like you can at every other position.

[fleet]

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They're gushing over him.

He's elite from the pocket but has big time size and speed. This feels bigger than Derrick.

[dice]

so wait, they want to win?!

So wait you expect Dalton to make us winners and upset teams like the Packers and browns?

and lose to the lions. did ya miss that part? it's the damn NFL. stuff happens. do you happen to remember the way the bears started LAST season? ring a bell?

i have the bears at 4-5 going into the bye week under dalton. pay attention to the broader context instead of picking cherries to juice your troll machine

that means starting dalton unless fields beats him out in training camp. and keeping dalton until the playoffs look unlikely

If fields doesn’t beat out Dalton that doesn’t mean we will start off hot that means the bears are in trouble.

i've got news for ya: in the coming season, the bears ARE in trouble

well of course not

if fields doesn't come in at week 4 to face a couple of soft opponents, he's probably not seeing the field 'till the break

Again it’s andy Dalton check out his track record, throwing 2-3 INTs is normal for him. Putting on a bears jersey won’t change much.

you're completely making **** up again. andy dalton has not averaged 2-3 INTs a game. if he did, he would've been out of the league a long time ago

andy dalton has averaged 0.9 INT per game for his career. while playing for garbage teams. not. too. shabby. he's not in the league because of his dynamism. he's in the league for his competence. which includes not making a lot of mistakes

On top of the fact hes a freaking statue in the pocket, we still don’t know what our OLine looks like. Atleast fields has legs and can make something out of nothing.

agreed. problem is, FIELDS IS A ROOKIE WHO THE LEAGUE DOESN'T EXPECT TO BECOME A FRANCHISE QB! if that was the expectation, he would have gone in the top 4

for god's sake, peyton manning struggled as a rookie. it's not the norm for ANYONE to come in, no matter how highly drafted, and be successful out of the box

In order for us to even start off hot for us to have Dalton as our QB that means our defense would have to be a top 5 defense those first couple of weeks. That’s asking ALOT.

or...the bears win the turnover battle. or...the offense outperforms expectations for a while

What’s funny is when Dalton was QB1 before the draft nobody had this type of optimism. Now all of sudden with fields holding a clip board on the sideline we could possibly start off hot.

any team COULD start off hot. and my predictions are certainly not based on some newfound optimism. that's moronic

at the end of the day, my projection is 4-5 under dalton followed by fields taking over and struggling a bit (which should be the expectation of any sane observer). but there are a million different scenarios. i'm just presenting one of them. it's not meant to be taken as seriously as a heart attack. i'm certainly not placing any bets on the dalton beating the packers and browns...while losing to the lions

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I sure hopes Dazz is another Mooney like steal!!!

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[Susan]

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[Dresden]

The real issue is that there it's like a pyramid- you can have a zillion guys at the bottom, but at each level they progress, they get culled out. There are only X number of high schools, which feed something like x/100 colleges, and your QB has to come from one of about 50 colleges. So each year there are really only 50 viable targets, and except for the outliers, like your occassional QB from a place like North Dakota State, there are probably only about 25 or so colleges that will produce the majority of NFL QB's. And of those 25, maybe 10 will have a QB with NFL potential in any given year. So you're really looking at about 10 guys to fill the needed slots.

I agree the issue is that QB skill is somewhat like a pyramid. There simply exists a gap between the very best and the next tier. That obviously doesn't have to be the case. It could be the case where there is a threshold of talent and basically 1000s of guys could meet that threshold, but it isn't. The physical / mental / skill trait combination is rare enough where there exists are pretty huge gap in the abilities of the best / next tier like in a pyramid.

The fact that there aren't more schools, more people, more whatever doesn't really matter though. It's just in the end that there is pyramid in talent even at the very top, and you can't make up for it in depth like you can at every other position.

I think, too, that it's not just a matter of talent, but of talent evaulation. You need more than natural ability- you need coaching and experience. At each level, only a certain few are given the chance to play QB, and to be the starting QB that gets the game experience. If you miss the cut for that in high school, that's it, you aren't getting a second chance. So colleges are only picking their QB's from the very best HS QB's. And so on, with the NFL picking only the very best collegiate ones. If you don't get chosen pretty early on to be "that guy", you are out of the running for good. So that is really a limiting factor, too. You have to not just have talent, you have to be able to show it at an early age, and you have to then get in the "future QB" training program.

[Dresden]

Fields seems to have “IT” in spades.

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2021/05/14/justin-fields-speaks-im-built-for-this-tailoring-the-play-book-waiting-to-be-the-starter-more/

If he is anything like he seems like he is, that locker room will palpably want him starting right away, which if smart, the Bears won’t ignore. Big ‘If’.

I think the decision on who starts Game 1 is pretty simple- whichever guy looks like he will give the Bears the best chance to win games will start. They won't start Fields just because he is held to be the future franchise QB, if Dalton looks more comfortable, is making better throws in preseason and in practice, knows the offense better, makes fewer mistakes, etc.

If Fields, OTH, is doing all those things better, then he will start Game 1 I believe.

If it is very close, then I guess that's the only time when these other factors will come in to play. But it will all come down to who they coaches think will be more likely to win games.

[dice]

Fields seems to have “IT” in spades.

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2021/05/14/justin-fields-speaks-im-built-for-this-tailoring-the-play-book-waiting-to-be-the-starter-more/

If he is anything like he seems like he is, that locker room will palpably want him starting right away, which if smart, the Bears won’t ignore. Big ‘If’.

I think the decision on who starts Game 1 is pretty simple- whichever guy looks like he will give the Bears the best chance to win games will start. They won't start Fields just because he is held to be the future franchise QB, if Dalton looks more comfortable, is making better throws in preseason and in practice, knows the offense better, makes fewer mistakes, etc.

If Fields, OTH, is doing all those things better, then he will start Game 1 I believe.

If it is very close, then I guess that's the only time when these other factors will come in to play. But it will all come down to who they coaches think will be more likely to win games.

if it is very close, the "we didn't pay dalton to be a backup" factor comes in as well. he was signed to be a bridge QB. the team called him "QB1." apparently he was told he would start. without the "unless we draft a QB" caveat. i think that fields would have to clearly outplay him in training camp in order to start week 1

[Hold That]

so wait, they want to win?!

So wait you expect Dalton to make us winners and upset teams like the Packers and browns?

and lose to the lions. did ya miss that part? it's the damn NFL. stuff happens. do you happen to remember the way the bears started LAST season? ring a bell?

i have the bears at 4-5 going into the bye week under dalton. pay attention to the broader context instead of picking cherries to juice your troll machine

Firstly, just becaue i disagree doesn't mean im trolling. I remember last season vividly, I also remember the bears first couple of opponents being the Lions,Falcons,Giants,Colts and Panthers. most of which had top 10 picks this year, and one fluke win against the Bucs only because Brady was still building chemistry with the Bucs. This year we wont have that soft schedule or luxury. Nor is Dalton the QB to lead us to any fast starts as your hoping for sh*t tojust happen

if fields doesn't come in at week 4 to face a couple of soft opponents, he's probably not seeing the field 'till the break

[/quote]

Andy Dalton is learning a new offense too, and most of the national media believe that Fields might be better than him RIGHT NOW. A similar situation that Russell WIlson was in when the Seahawks signed a QB who was a backup and got beat out by a guy with similar talents to Fields, in training camp. Why do you feel like Pace and Nagy will have the luxury to wait 9 weeks for soft opponents when we will be lucky to win 2 games in those first 9 weeks if Dalton is our starter let alone sit there at 4-5.

you're completely making **** up again. andy dalton has not averaged 2-3 INTs a game. if he did, he would've been out of the league a long time ago

andy dalton has averaged 0.9 INT per game for his career. while playing for garbage teams. not. too. shabby. he's not in the league because of his dynamism. he's in the league for his competence. which includes not making a lot of mistakes

Andy Dalton is past his prime, Andy Dalton had 14TD's and 8 INTS last year and 16TD's and 14INTS the year before that. Did I exaggerate how many picks he throws? Of course. But I'm not exaggerating on the fact he's a bum. and its no exaggeration that the rest of the football world feels this way, when we became the laughing stock after naming him QB1 pre draft. I'm looking at the guy Dalton was the last two seasons, not the guy he was 4-5 years ago, cause that guy is never coming back through the tunnel.

agreed. problem is, FIELDS IS A ROOKIE WHO THE LEAGUE DOESN'T EXPECT TO BECOME A FRANCHISE QB! if that was the expectation, he would have gone in the top 4

THis is so far off base, and just shows you don't understand the value of first round picks. Drafting ANY QB in the first round means you view them as a franchise QB. Him not going in the top 3 picks just means there are 3 teams that felt there were 3 QBs that were better than him. Not that he wasnt a franchise QB.. the rest of the league had him as a top 2 QB, alot of them didn't need QBs. You dont draft a QB in round 1 if you don't view him as a franchise QB, let alone trade up for him. WHy do you thinnk there's an isse with Rodgers right now and the Packers taking Love. Rodgers is saying trade me since you dont feel im that guy in the future otherwise why would you draft a QB round 1 if you don't view him as a franchise QB.

for god's sake, peyton manning struggled as a rookie. it's not the norm for ANYONE to come in, no matter how highly drafted, and be successful out of the bo

You realize Peyton Manning was also a statue? You also realize that the QB's you compare Justin skillset too wouldnt be Peyton Manning? You'd compare him to the Russell WIlsons,Cam,RG3, and Kaep..Why? Because they are dual threat Qb's, they make something out of nothing if they are having a hard time processing.. Peyton didn't have that luxury so yes he struggled early on. I just never understood why anyone would compare FIelds to a pure pocket passer.. Nobody expects Fields to be a world beater, we just expect him to beat out Andy Dalton and give us a better chance at winning than Dalton cause Dalton is simply not that good.

or...the bears win the turnover battle. or...the offense outperforms expectations for a while

or you just have all these what ifs to justify having Dalton start for 9 weeks.

any team COULD start off hot. and my predictions are certainly not based on some newfound optimism. that's moronic

at the end of the day, my projection is 4-5 under dalton followed by fields taking over and struggling a bit (which should be the expectation of any sane observer). but there are a million different scenarios. i'm just presenting one of them. it's not meant to be taken as seriously as a heart attack. i'm certainly not placing any bets on the dalton beating the packers and browns...while losing to the lions

I don't view the bears being that good to get 4 wins with Dalton. I also feel like Fields is better than Dalton right now just basedupon what he can do running the ball.. I'm not worried about him processing right now, I feel like he will put way more pressue on opposing defenses out of the gate because he's a dual threat QB. Which is why AS OF LATE, dual threat QB's have more success out of the gate than pure pocket passers like Manning or Mahomes.

[Susan]

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the veterans will be much tougher to win over, but guys like Eddie Jackson are indicating they are ready to fall in line behind a true alpha dog

“He’s 100 percent about business,” offensive tackle Larry Borom told reporters Saturday. “It’s not fun and games when we’re on the field. It’s definitely 100 percent business and he wants to do the job at the highest level that he can. I try to echo that with my play and it works out.

“It sets the tone for the whole offense. If you see your quarterback, he’s not messing around, it makes everyone else want to work 10 times harder.”

Many have taken Fields’ serious demeanor to mean something entirely different than what it is, as many other fan bases joked that Fields wasn’t happy to be in Chicago following his reaction to being drafted by the Bears.

But, as Fields said on draft night, he’s not about talk. He wants to get to work and let his play do the talking, which is exactly what he’s been doing at rookie minicamp. And it’s something that his teammates are gravitating toward.

“Definitely, he gives out (a serious) demeanor on the field,” running back Khalil Herbert added. “I think guys gravitate towards it and it spreads to guys in the locker room. When we’re out there and he’s locked in, dialed in, making sure we’ve got the calls, got the plays, got the cadence. And it definitely helps, I feel like it runs a lot smoother, knowing what we gotta do, how to do it. To have that kind of clean, crisp mindset when we attack the line of scrimmage.”

[fleet]

Fields seems to have “IT” in spades.

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2021/05/14/justin-fields-speaks-im-built-for-this-tailoring-the-play-book-waiting-to-be-the-starter-more/

If he is anything like he seems like he is, that locker room will palpably want him starting right away, which if smart, the Bears won’t ignore. Big ‘If’.

I think the decision on who starts Game 1 is pretty simple- whichever guy looks like he will give the Bears the best chance to win games will start. They won't start Fields just because he is held to be the future franchise QB, if Dalton looks more comfortable, is making better throws in preseason and in practice, knows the offense better, makes fewer mistakes, etc.

If Fields, OTH, is doing all those things better, then he will start Game 1 I believe.

If it is very close, then I guess that's the only time when these other factors will come in to play. But it will all come down to who they coaches think will be more likely to win games.

It would be a classic move of a weak FO to try and maximize wins in a lost season with a shot journeyman QB rather than develop the franchise quarterback of the future. But only Justin Fields has to put up with this. Wilson and Lawrence get the keys right away all they want.

[Susan]

If he is anything like he seems like he is, that locker room will palpably want him starting right away, which if smart, the Bears won’t ignore. Big ‘If’.

I think the decision on who starts Game 1 is pretty simple- whichever guy looks like he will give the Bears the best chance to win games will start. They won't start Fields just because he is held to be the future franchise QB, if Dalton looks more comfortable, is making better throws in preseason and in practice, knows the offense better, makes fewer mistakes, etc.

If Fields, OTH, is doing all those things better, then he will start Game 1 I believe.

If it is very close, then I guess that's the only time when these other factors will come in to play. But it will all come down to who they coaches think will be more likely to win games.

It would be a classic move of a weak FO to try and maximize wins in a lost season with a shot journeyman QB rather than develop the franchise quarterback of the future. But only Justin Fields has to put up with this. Wilson and Lawrence get the keys right away all they want.

Well, the Jags and the Jets KNEW they could get Wilson/Trevor. The Bears weren't in that position. They called Andy, let him know they could draft a QB (something GB didn't do for freaking Aaron Rodgers), and after drafting Justin had to probably manage Dalton a bit. They promised him the starting job and this fell into their lap.

Fields will take the job from him because he's THAT good and Dalton will accept it because Justin is so driven and so freaking talented, he's going to make it obvious.

[dice]

So wait you expect Dalton to make us winners and upset teams like the Packers and browns?

and lose to the lions. did ya miss that part? it's the damn NFL. stuff happens. do you happen to remember the way the bears started LAST season? ring a bell?

i have the bears at 4-5 going into the bye week under dalton. pay attention to the broader context instead of picking cherries to juice your troll machine

Firstly, just becaue i disagree doesn't mean im trolling.

cherry picking does

I remember last season vividly, I also remember the bears first couple of opponents being the Lions,Falcons,Giants,Colts and Panthers. most of which had top 10 picks this year, and one fluke win against the Bucs only because Brady was still building chemistry with the Bucs. This year we wont have that soft schedule or luxury. Nor is Dalton the QB to lead us to any fast starts as your hoping for sh*t tojust happen

how do you not understand that dalton going 4-5 is NOT anything special? the order of the wins and losses really doesn't mean jack. i'm just having fun with the projection. going chalk is boring. get it?

if fields doesn't come in at week 4 to face a couple of soft opponents, he's probably not seeing the field 'till the break

Andy Dalton is learning a new offense too

he's not learning a new freaking level of football. OSU is a far cry from the nfl. just ask dwayne haskins

and most of the national media believe that Fields might be better than him RIGHT NOW

might be? well of course he MIGHT be. but nfl teams certainly don't believe that his IS currently better. 'cause if they did, HE'D HAVE GONE IN THE TOP 4! common sense

and no, a few days of rookie ball doesn't change that

A similar situation that Russell WIlson was in when the Seahawks signed a QB who was a backup and got beat out by a guy with similar talents to Fields, in training camp.

nope. the seahawks signed a guy who had started TWO DAMN GAMES in his career to be their starter. he was ripe to be supplanted. on the flip side, andy dalton has started 142 games

and by the way, even if russell wilson had outplayed a dalton-level pro, citing an event unusual enough that you had to go back that many years would not lend any credence to your position. thinking that justin fields is the next russell wilson...now THAT's wishful thinking

Why do you feel like Pace and Nagy will have the luxury to wait 9 weeks for soft opponents when we will be lucky to win 2 games in those first 9 weeks if Dalton is our starter let alone sit there at 4-5.

you have zero basis to believe that fields will give the bears a better chance to win early in the season. none whatsoever. again with the wishful thinking

you're completely making **** up again. andy dalton has not averaged 2-3 INTs a game. if he did, he would've been out of the league a long time ago

andy dalton has averaged 0.9 INT per game for his career. while playing for garbage teams. not. too. shabby. he's not in the league because of his dynamism. he's in the league for his competence. which includes not making a lot of mistakes

Andy Dalton is past his prime, Andy Dalton had 14TD's and 8 INTS last year and 16TD's and 14INTS the year before that. Did I exaggerate how many picks he throws? Of course. But I'm not exaggerating on the fact he's a bum. and its no exaggeration that the rest of the football world feels this way, when we became the laughing stock after naming him QB1 pre draft. I'm looking at the guy Dalton was the last two seasons, not the guy he was 4-5 years ago, cause that guy is never coming back through the tunnel.

the same guy who signed "bum" andy dalton to be starter traded up for justin fields

and yes, you're once again exaggerating. dalton played just fine for the cowboys last season. while learning a new offense. no reason to think he wouldn't do the same this season for the bears

agreed. problem is, FIELDS IS A ROOKIE WHO THE LEAGUE DOESN'T EXPECT TO BECOME A FRANCHISE QB! if that was the expectation, he would have gone in the top 4

THis is so far off base, and just shows you don't understand the value of first round picks. Drafting ANY QB in the first round means you view them as a franchise QB.

that comment shows that you don't know a thing about the value of a quarterback. because, you see, if a guy is expected to be a franchise QB, NO OTHER POSITION ON THE FIELD would get drafted ahead of him, no matter how good the prospect

Rodgers is saying trade me since you dont feel im that guy in the future otherwise why would you draft a QB round 1 if you don't view him as a franchise QB.

love was drafted as a HOPEFUL future franchise QB. a project for years down the road. obviously given that aaron freaking rodgers is there. it was most certainly not the expectation. because, again, if that was the expectation he wouldn't have slipped that far

for god's sake, peyton manning struggled as a rookie. it's not the norm for ANYONE to come in, no matter how highly drafted, and be successful out of the bo

You realize Peyton Manning was also a statue? You also realize that the QB's you compare Justin skillset too wouldnt be Peyton Manning? You'd compare him to the Russell WIlsons,Cam,RG3, and Kaep..Why? Because they are dual threat Qb's, they make something out of nothing if they are having a hard time processing.. Peyton didn't have that luxury so yes he struggled early on. I just never understood why anyone would compare FIelds to a pure pocket passer.. Nobody expects Fields to be a world beater, we just expect him to beat out Andy Dalton and give us a better chance at winning than Dalton cause Dalton is simply not that good.

um...so now dual threat QBs are significantly more likely to be successful as rookies? 'cause plenty of them have failed as rookies as well. michael vick was the #1 overall pick, most certainly a dual threat, and was awful as a rookie. on the other hand, justin herbert is largely a pocket passer and just won rookie of the year. i really doubt that there's much correlation between playing style and early success

I don't view the bears being that good to get 4 wins with Dalton.

pretty much the vegas line...which by the way did not budge when justin fields was drafted

I also feel like Fields is better than Dalton right now just based upon what he can do running the ball.. I'm not worried about him processing right now, I feel like he will put way more pressue on opposing defenses out of the gate because he's a dual threat QB.

i do agree that that dimension would be especially advantageous if the bears O-line does not improve much. then again, fields wasn't a big runner in college despite his athleticism, so i'm not sure he'd suddenly shift gears in the nfl

which brings up another point: teams don't want their rookie QBs running for their lives when they're supposed to be learning how to be a pro. so there's kind of a double-edged sword in play

Which is why AS OF LATE, dual threat QB's have more success out of the gate than pure pocket passers like Manning or Mahomes.

already mentioned herbert. burrow was quite good as well as a rookie. baker mayfield was solid if unspectacular early on as a pocket passer. whereas josh allen, a very mobile QB, struggled more his first 2 seasons. but kyler murray met expectations

again, not much correlation. hits and misses on both sides of the equation

[nomorezorro]

i don't think "immediately better than late-career andy dalton" is a metric teams use to evaluate whether or not they pick a qb at the top of the draft

i personally think it's more likely than not that justin fields is a better nfl quarterback than dalton is when the bears play their first game of the season. don't think it's a guarantee, don't think it's unreasonable to disagree, obviously there are a lot of still-unknown variables that will ultimately shape the outcome. but i also don't think there's "zero basis" to believe that. he's a highly regarded prospect despite falling in the draft. he was very successful at the highest levels of college football. he's got some elite tools that dalton obviously doesn't at this point in his career. he's supposedly good at picking up concepts and retaining information.

maybe the more positive scouting reports are off, or he doesn't catch up to nfl speed right away, or one of a dozen other things that could leave him ill-equipped to start the season. but the bar to clear is "andy dalton," and it's one that a number of qbs that didn't go at the tip-top of the draft have been able to clear in their rookie season over the past ~decade.

[Chi town]

I think Fields starts week one. Dalton’s best days are behind him.

[dice]

i don't think "immediately better than late-career andy dalton" is a metric teams use to evaluate whether or not they pick a qb at the top of the draft

nobody implied that. but if a QB is expected to be a career starter in the NFL, teams just aren't going to pass over him for a player at another position. trubisky went #2 behind an edge rusher because that wasn't the expectation. it was merely the hope based on his perceived upside

i personally think it's more likely than not that justin fields is a better nfl quarterback than dalton is when the bears play their first game of the season. don't think it's a guarantee, don't think it's unreasonable to disagree, obviously there are a lot of still-unknown variables that will ultimately shape the outcome. but i also don't think there's "zero basis" to believe that. he's a highly regarded prospect despite falling in the draft. he was very successful at the highest levels of college football. he's got some elite tools that dalton obviously doesn't at this point in his career. he's supposedly good at picking up concepts and retaining information.

the same traits that you just mentioned in fields are the same as countless prospects who have failed in the nfl. so no, there simply isn't any reason to believe that fields is better than andy dalton right now. fields hasn't even seen a training camp. it's entirely wishful thinking. trevor lawrence might not be as capable of facing nfl defenses as dalton at this moment in time. we simply don't know. there's a learning curve

maybe the more positive scouting reports are off, or he doesn't catch up to nfl speed right away, or one of a dozen other things that could leave him ill-equipped to start the season. but the bar to clear is "andy dalton," and it's one that a number of qbs that didn't go at the tip-top of the draft have been able to clear in their rookie season over the past ~decade.

here are all the rookie year QBRs of all the first round picks taken in the past 15 drafts (draft slot follows player name, starter caliber play in bold):

29.2 russell* 1
37.1 stafford 1
46.9 bradford 1
56.6 newton 1
65.6 luck 1
57.2 winston 1
18.3 goff 1
51.2 mayfield 1
57.7 murray 1
56.2 burrow 1
69.4 RG3 2
48.4 mariota 2
46.7 wentz 2

7/13 played as well or better than andy dalton out of the gate. wentz, goff and stafford later improved to starter caliber, winston fell out of that status. so the strong majority taken at the very top have had NFL success. as expected

players below were taken in the top half of first round w/ non-QB taken ahead of them:

32.4 trubisky 2
56.1 young 3
68.8 ryan 3
26.7 bortles 3
45.9 darnold 3
32.8 sanchez 5
52.5 tua 5
55.7 jones 6
69.5 herbert 6
49.8 allen 7
42.0 locker* 8
48.4 tannehill 8
60.5 leinart 10
22.2 gabbert 10
80.3 mahomes 10
24.1 rosen 10
41.9 cutler 11
32.4 ponder 12
83.5 watson 12
28.0 haskins 15
38.2 manuel 16

8/21 played well as rookies, tannehill and cutler subsequently improved to starter quality, leinart crashed and burned due in part to injury. so being taken in the top half of the first round behind at least one non-QB is a 50-50 proposition at best for long-term success. there is rightfully no expectation for them to be franchise QBs. the top performers are just as good, but there is a smaller chance of hitting on the pick

players taken in bottom half of first round:

37.0 freeman 17
47.1 flacco 18
N/A quinn 22
33.9 weeden 22
N/A manziel 22
38.6 tebow* 25
N/A lynch 26
N/A love 26
54.4 bridgewater 32
42.6 jackson 32

total train wreck on the whole as rookies, but flacco, bridgewater and obviously jackson have had some degree of success. note also how few QBs are taken in the latter half of the first round

*did not start as rookie - 2nd year stats used

[Dresden]

If he is anything like he seems like he is, that locker room will palpably want him starting right away, which if smart, the Bears won’t ignore. Big ‘If’.

I think the decision on who starts Game 1 is pretty simple- whichever guy looks like he will give the Bears the best chance to win games will start. They won't start Fields just because he is held to be the future franchise QB, if Dalton looks more comfortable, is making better throws in preseason and in practice, knows the offense better, makes fewer mistakes, etc.

If Fields, OTH, is doing all those things better, then he will start Game 1 I believe.

If it is very close, then I guess that's the only time when these other factors will come in to play. But it will all come down to who they coaches think will be more likely to win games.

It would be a classic move of a weak FO to try and maximize wins in a lost season with a shot journeyman QB rather than develop the franchise quarterback of the future. But only Justin Fields has to put up with this. Wilson and Lawrence get the keys right away all they want.

I actually think that's how most front offices look at things, not just in football either.

[Dresden]

If he is anything like he seems like he is, that locker room will palpably want him starting right away, which if smart, the Bears won’t ignore. Big ‘If’.

I think the decision on who starts Game 1 is pretty simple- whichever guy looks like he will give the Bears the best chance to win games will start. They won't start Fields just because he is held to be the future franchise QB, if Dalton looks more comfortable, is making better throws in preseason and in practice, knows the offense better, makes fewer mistakes, etc.

If Fields, OTH, is doing all those things better, then he will start Game 1 I believe.

If it is very close, then I guess that's the only time when these other factors will come in to play. But it will all come down to who they coaches think will be more likely to win games.

if it is very close, the "we didn't pay dalton to be a backup" factor comes in as well. he was signed to be a bridge QB. the team called him "QB1." apparently he was told he would start. without the "unless we draft a QB" caveat. i think that fields would have to clearly outplay him in training camp in order to start week 1

I think that's probably right. Dalton will likely get the benefit of the doubt, just to see what he's got left in the tank. If he's good, great. If he's lousy, then bring in Fields. It's much easier to go from Dalton to Fields, then to have to go from Fields back to Dalton.

[fleet]

I think the decision on who starts Game 1 is pretty simple- whichever guy looks like he will give the Bears the best chance to win games will start. They won't start Fields just because he is held to be the future franchise QB, if Dalton looks more comfortable, is making better throws in preseason and in practice, knows the offense better, makes fewer mistakes, etc.

If Fields, OTH, is doing all those things better, then he will start Game 1 I believe.

If it is very close, then I guess that's the only time when these other factors will come in to play. But it will all come down to who they coaches think will be more likely to win games.

It would be a classic move of a weak FO to try and maximize wins in a lost season with a shot journeyman QB rather than develop the franchise quarterback of the future. But only Justin Fields has to put up with this. Wilson and Lawrence get the keys right away all they want.

I actually think that's how most front offices look at things, not just in football either.

Not Seattle. If anybody thought Herbert and Burrow, (Zach) Wilson and Lawrence were just the most recent examples of Fields having to put up with fugaze common wisdom ATM, they would be correct, there are countless other older examples of the Bears forced plan being a mistake if actually implemented. It is il-conceived to preclude a competition for the job.


Is it easier to go from Dalton to Fields rather than Fields to Dalton? Yeah. But then again, who the **** cares at that point.