2018 draft 3.0. #7, #22 - Merged

[Axolotl]

As I understand the control cohort in the lumbar discectomy study, it means players who have not had said problems.

1:2 case-control study was performed in which LDH players and players without LDH were matched for player variables

But english is not my first language, so I may be mistaken.

Edit: New page, so here's the link again https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4702156/

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Only amongst Chicago sports fans would a vegan diet be considered a negative. Denver fans would probably be ecstatic.

This board:

I have nothing against a vegan diet. My concern is that MPJ says that, when he was part-Vegan, he had back pain when he played a couple of games four months after surgery. So now he is switching to a full raw vegan diet, in the hope that this will prevent his back pain from returning. Implicit in this approach is that the surgery, by itself, did not do the trick.

He does not know if this will work. He naturally hopes that it does. Whoever drafts him will have to believe that his hope will come true.

Given all the facts, this seems way too much of a risk. An NBA season is 82 games - even more when you count preseason and the playoffs (which hopefully will be in the Bulls future). And it seems to me that maintaining a full raw vegan diet while living the life of an NBA player would be almost impossible. Too many doubts that a raw vegan diet will cure the back problem that surgery did not, and too many doubts that he will be able to maintain that diet while on the road during an NBA season. I pass.

I think what's happening is when a young kid goes on interviews, he probably fumbles through his wording.

I think what else is happening, is a diehard message board is freaking out about every sentence that he says.

The teams and doctors will do their due diligence. That's what matters. We can try and dissect every meaningless phrase, what he meant or what he actually meant.

Unfortunately, this will happen up until the draft. I think people can get too caught up in the weeds and forget the whole picture. To me, Porter is an incredible talent, much more talented than Bridges or Carter. He was slated to be the 1st pick. Let's not lose big picture stuff in favor of throwaway sentences during an interview or what kind of diet he is on.

[Jcool0]

Only amongst Chicago sports fans would a vegan diet be considered a negative. Denver fans would probably be ecstatic.

This board:

I have nothing against a vegan diet. My concern is that MPJ says that, when he was part-Vegan, he had back pain when he played a couple of games four months after surgery. So now he is switching to a full raw vegan diet, in the hope that this will prevent his back pain from returning. Implicit in this approach is that the surgery, by itself, did not do the trick.

He does not know if this will work. He naturally hopes that it does. Whoever drafts him will have to believe that his hope will come true.

Given all the facts, this seems way too much of a risk. An NBA season is 82 games - even more when you count preseason and the playoffs (which hopefully will be in the Bulls future). And it seems to me that maintaining a full raw vegan diet while living the life of an NBA player would be almost impossible. Too many doubts that a raw vegan diet will cure the back problem that surgery did not, and too many doubts that he will be able to maintain that diet while on the road during an NBA season. I pass.

I think what's happening is when a young kid goes on interviews, he probably fumbles through his wording.

I think what else is happening, is a diehard message board is freaking out about every sentence that he says.

The teams and doctors will do their due diligence. That's what matters. We can try and dissect every meaningless phrase, what he meant or what he actually meant.

Unfortunately, this will happen up until the draft. I think people can get too caught up in the weeds and forget the whole picture. To me, Porter is an incredible talent, much more talented than Bridges or Carter. He was slated to be the 1st pick. Let's not lose big picture stuff in favor of throwaway sentences during an interview or what kind of diet he is on.

[CoreyVillains]

It's gonna take some maneuvering by mpj's agent for him to be on the board at 7. It's a long shot but there's a slim chance

Agents have say so in these things. Porzingis agent wouldn't even let him talk to philly in 2015,no interviews,no workouts,no medicals. Okafor was drafted instead.

I think ayton,doncic,bagley are top 3 locks. Don't know the order but they'll go top 3, then jjj & bamba.I think jjj is perfect for todays league and has just as much upside defensively as bamba he also has similar measurements to ad. I'd be shocked if jjj wasn't taken top 4. Five and 6 is where it gets dicey the mavs and magic and what they do are the keys for the bulls

If the bulls stayed at 6 I'd be more confident in getting mpj but the kings jumping the bulls hurt.I also always have liked miles bridges over mikal. Miles has more upside imo he just needs to improve his handles

Miles upside is significantly overblown because he’s a good leaper. Ideally you’d want to slot someone like him as a stretch 4, but he has the height and length of a SG and he’s a so so shooter that struggled big time from NBA range. Like you alluded to, his handle sucks and he doesn’t have a great first step. He’s not particularly quick, he has small strides, and he doesn’t move great laterally. I’ve seen people say he bullies people to the hoop, but that’s not really true. He got to the free throw line less than and at a lower rate than Mikal. His shot selection sucked as he settled for long two’s a lot. He’s a good passer that won’t have the usg at the next level to use it. He’ll be good as a transition finisher and as a cutter/garbage man around the hoop. If he had better measurements we’re talking about a different player who could swing and guard multiple spots but alas he does not and it’s going to hurt him since he’ll rarely have the same physical advantage he had over college dudes. He’s one of the more overrated players in the draft.

[fleet]

As I understand the control cohort in the lumbar discectomy study, it means players who have not had said problems.

1:2 case-control study was performed in which LDH players and players without LDH were matched for player variables

But english is not my first language, so I may be mistaken.

Edit: New page, so here's the link again https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4702156/

Subconclusions of the study:

Survivorship analysis showed that operatively treated players who successfully returned to play did not have a decreased career length statistically when compared with controls

Similarly, operatively treated LDH players had a decline in PER (–1.76 ± 0.85 vs 0.42 ± 0.64, P = 0.049) during the first postindex season compared with controls but no difference during postindex season 2 (P = 0.396) or 3 (P = 0.093)

These results, however, showed that by the second postoperative season, players are able to return to the level of play in terms of games played per season and PER, as the control cohort and career longevity is not significantly affected.

[realEAST]

I've mocked 1st and 2nd round, both with explanations, if anybody is interested to give it a read, I'd be glad

viewtopic.php?f=38&p=66324545#p66324545

[fleet]

Only amongst Chicago sports fans would a vegan diet be considered a negative. Denver fans would probably be ecstatic.

This board:

I have nothing against a vegan diet. My concern is that MPJ says that, when he was part-Vegan, he had back pain when he played a couple of games four months after surgery. So now he is switching to a full raw vegan diet, in the hope that this will prevent his back pain from returning. Implicit in this approach is that the surgery, by itself, did not do the trick.

He does not know if this will work. He naturally hopes that it does. Whoever drafts him will have to believe that his hope will come true.

Given all the facts, this seems way too much of a risk. An NBA season is 82 games - even more when you count preseason and the playoffs (which hopefully will be in the Bulls future). And it seems to me that maintaining a full raw vegan diet while living the life of an NBA player would be almost impossible. Too many doubts that a raw vegan diet will cure the back problem that surgery did not, and too many doubts that he will be able to maintain that diet while on the road during an NBA season. I pass.

I think what's happening is when a young kid goes on interviews, he probably fumbles through his wording.

I think what else is happening, is a diehard message board is freaking out about every sentence that he says.

The teams and doctors will do their due diligence. That's what matters. We can try and dissect every meaningless phrase, what he meant or what he actually meant.

Unfortunately, this will happen up until the draft. I think people can get too caught up in the weeds and forget the whole picture. To me, Porter is an incredible talent, much more talented than Bridges or Carter. He was slated to be the 1st pick. Let's not lose big picture stuff in favor of throwaway sentences during an interview or what kind of diet he is on.

What was just indicated to us, was a study that may explain what he is going through. The 1st year post OP is a down year. By the second year, players can return to regular performance.

[realEAST]

Watched more Heurter.. even more sold now. He's being completely underrated as an athlete, great passer, off-ball mover, defender, etc., and of course, an absolutely killer release. Would not surprise me if he went lottery.

If promise to Hutchinson really hasn't been made, and with Okogie looking like he is on the rise, Huerter might be my favorite at the moment. Although Hutchinson is really close.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Sign me up for Huerter at 22. I think he's well gone by then, but he's the perfect player the bulls should be looking at. Elite shooter at the wing spot, very young, upside is there.

[johnnyvann840]

A Vegan, a Finn, and a GarPax walk into a bar.

Out came Chuck Norris.

Carrying GarPax over his shoulder.

[BigUps]

This draft thread is a perfect example of people trying to use data to back up their narrative instead of using data to create their narrative.

[johnnyvann840]

Not only did they have longer careers than non surgical, their long term careers were not different than the control group according to PER and longevity. Yes, the 1st year is an adjustment year. ROY for Porter may not be a good bet.

They were different though.. When comparing players to a control group of normal healthy players. they got this. They deferred to a previous study because they didn't think their results were even worthwhile.. anyway the difference was basically a 13.9 average PER vs. 15 for non LHD patients. Slight, but different.

Previous literature has examined the impact of LDH on athletes in the National Football League (NFL), National Hockey League (NHL), and Major League Baseball (MLB).11,12,22,24 These studies have shown a return-to-play (RTP) rate of 75% to 100%, career longevity of 2.6 to 4.8 years, and postinjury statistics ranging from 64.4% to >100% of preinjury player performance, depending on the sport played.6,11,12,24,27 Although LDHs are career-threatening injuries, these data suggest that many of these players are able to achieve preinjury performance.

The National Basketball Association (NBA) is unique to other professional leagues in that rosters are smaller and players have different body habitus. Because the sample sizes are smaller than other professional leagues, conclusions made from retrospective studies are more challenging with the data available.2,12 Consequently, although Anakwenze et al2 demonstrated few differences in postoperative season performance in 24 NBA players with LDH treated surgically over a 16-year period, confounding variables such as the control group selection criteria may have biased the conclusions, and long-term results were not examined. Particularly in basketball, the wide variability in position demands, physical characteristics, and skill sets makes the appropriate selection of control subjects challenging. Additionally, long-term results and career longevity were not evaluated, which are also fundamental in guiding treatment options and setting expectations.

Essentially what they are saying is that they didn't even bother to evaluate their own findings on longevity because "confounding variables such as control group selection may have been biased".

and the wide variability in position demands and physical characteristics in basketball made selection of control subjects too challenging.

Bottomline is what that says is that the study was really to find the difference on outcome between different treatments of the same problem and that the control study done vs. players without any problem is not reliable enough to use the conclusions.

[shakes0]

Lots of ELITE athletes are now vegan, from Lewis Hamilton on down. They do it for better health and better performance I think people are realizing that whole foods and not processed foods are much better for you. They help you with digestion significantly and also in retaining nutrients

Are beans included in this? Because atleast for me, they're God awful for digestion. Doesn't matter if they're red , black, or brown. All treat me terribly in the digestion department

Are you saying the more you eat, the more you fart?

[Axolotl]

When comparing players to a control group of normal healthy players. they got this. They deferred to a previous study because they didn't think their results were even worthwhile.. anyway the difference was basically a 13.9 average PER vs. 15 for non LHD patients. Slight, but different.

Previous literature has examined the impact of LDH on athletes in the National Football League (NFL), National Hockey League (NHL), and Major League Baseball (MLB).11,12,22,24 These studies have shown a return-to-play (RTP) rate of 75% to 100%, career longevity of 2.6 to 4.8 years, and postinjury statistics ranging from 64.4% to >100% of preinjury player performance, depending on the sport played.6,11,12,24,27 Although LDHs are career-threatening injuries, these data suggest that many of these players are able to achieve preinjury performance.

The National Basketball Association (NBA) is unique to other professional leagues in that rosters are smaller and players have different body habitus. Because the sample sizes are smaller than other professional leagues, conclusions made from retrospective studies are more challenging with the data available.2,12 Consequently, although Anakwenze et al2 demonstrated few differences in postoperative season performance in 24 NBA players with LDH treated surgically over a 16-year period, confounding variables such as the control group selection criteria may have biased the conclusions, and long-term results were not examined. Particularly in basketball, the wide variability in position demands, physical characteristics, and skill sets makes the appropriate selection of control subjects challenging. Additionally, long-term results and career longevity were not evaluated, which are also fundamental in guiding treatment options and setting expectations.

Essentially what they are saying is that they didn't even bother to evaluate their own findings on longevity because "confounding variables such as control group selection may have been biased".

and the wide variability in position demands and physical characteristics in basketball made selection of control subjects too challenging.

Again, I may be mistaken, but I understand that as them saying that these problems exist in the paper by Anakwenze et al, and are absent in theirs.

This is the first assessment of nonoperative treatment of LDH in the NBA as well as how it relates to player performance outcomes while assessing long-term performance and career longevity for both treatment modalities.

While they assessed the nonoperative treatment, they also assessed surgical treatment - and found it preferable.

[qianlong]

I was never in love with mpj the prospect.
But then there was the back issue. Consider the scenario where in his third or fourth year he starts to come around, maybe not a star but a promising player. Yes he missed some games every year but look at that smooth shot let extend him and go for it, and all of a sudden he is out.

-
About the vegan diet, I don’t know how it could really affect back pain. Also people need to consider that there is a difference between having a regular diet for a regular joe and for an NBA player.
I’m no expert on diets but saying that having a vegan diet avoid this and that disease and is better for the old age, is not relevant for an nba prospect.
Just as an hyperbole: roids are gonna ruin people life but they are actually performance enhancing.

Of course you cannot control injuries but drafting health bets is a dangerous strategy, see portland.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Watched more Heurter.. even more sold now. He's being completely underrated as an athlete, great passer, off-ball mover, defender, etc., and of course, an absolutely killer release. Would not surprise me if he went lottery.

Same. He’s at the top of my list of realistic targets at 22. You’d like more length, especially if he shares the court with Lavine and Lauri, but the shot combined with the ability to create is unique among 2/3s available in that range... Shoot, maybe among guys in this draft.

[johnnyvann840]

When comparing players to a control group of normal healthy players. they got this. They deferred to a previous study because they didn't think their results were even worthwhile.. anyway the difference was basically a 13.9 average PER vs. 15 for non LHD patients. Slight, but different.

Previous literature has examined the impact of LDH on athletes in the National Football League (NFL), National Hockey League (NHL), and Major League Baseball (MLB).11,12,22,24 These studies have shown a return-to-play (RTP) rate of 75% to 100%, career longevity of 2.6 to 4.8 years, and postinjury statistics ranging from 64.4% to >100% of preinjury player performance, depending on the sport played.6,11,12,24,27 Although LDHs are career-threatening injuries, these data suggest that many of these players are able to achieve preinjury performance.

The National Basketball Association (NBA) is unique to other professional leagues in that rosters are smaller and players have different body habitus. Because the sample sizes are smaller than other professional leagues, conclusions made from retrospective studies are more challenging with the data available.2,12 Consequently, although Anakwenze et al2 demonstrated few differences in postoperative season performance in 24 NBA players with LDH treated surgically over a 16-year period, confounding variables such as the control group selection criteria may have biased the conclusions, and long-term results were not examined. Particularly in basketball, the wide variability in position demands, physical characteristics, and skill sets makes the appropriate selection of control subjects challenging. Additionally, long-term results and career longevity were not evaluated, which are also fundamental in guiding treatment options and setting expectations.

Essentially what they are saying is that they didn't even bother to evaluate their own findings on longevity because "confounding variables such as control group selection may have been biased".

and the wide variability in position demands and physical characteristics in basketball made selection of control subjects too challenging.

Again, I may be mistaken, but I understand that as them saying that these problems exist in the paper by Anakwenze et al, and are absent in theirs.

This is the first assessment of nonoperative treatment of LDH in the NBA as well as how it relates to player performance outcomes while assessing long-term performance and career longevity for both treatment modalities.

While they assessed the nonoperative treatment, they also assessed surgical treatment - and found it preferable.

They basically discounted the finding of the control study done against players without back problems.

What they are saying is that the study was really to determine the difference of surgically treated patients vs. non surgically treated patients against the same "normal" control group of non lumbar herniated healthy players. That they feel the results of the difference between treatment types are the only reliable data from the study. Not the difference between LHD patients and non LHD patients.

I mean, read the hypothesis and conclusion of the entire study...

Hypothesis:

NBA players with LDH will have different performance outcomes based on treatment type.

Conclusion:

NBA players have a high RTP rate regardless of type of treatment for LDH; however, postindex performance differs between surgically and nonoperatively managed patients when compared with players without an LDH. However, further studies with a larger sample size are required for more definitive recommendations.

To simplify it... the purpose of the study to determine the difference in treatment of the same problem not the difference in the problem and not having a problem.

[RastaBull]

Calling for fellow board members evaluation / constructive criticism:

Michael Porter Jr. middle-tier expectation is Keith Van Horn

Couple of qualifiers:
1) This is considering a decently healthy back that won't drop him out of the league in couple years time (but also considering potential any sort of back intervention could hamper his athleticism)
2) Compare outcome more with Van Horn 4 years in (he was lights out
3) Purpose of posting this is because I love hearing all the opinions "address" comparisons ... in doing so you guys pull out all sorts of nuance about both the player and the comparisons.

Why I pulled this out the hat:
I'm 29, and I remember watching Jordan's last title in the first 3-peat. Watched his baseball "career." Watched couple games live in the nosebleeds during second three-peat. Loved the "flare" and excitement of the Bulls (Rodman and Jordan would grip any kid to the TV ... for very different reasons). But hindsight I didn't really know/understand basketball. My respect of the game and evaluation really came from college basketball (I started submitting brackets to my Pops work pool when I was 6 or 7 and got really into college evaluations early on). (My earliest memory of none Bulls players were Vinsanity and KG)

My earliest memory of a college player I thought was the bees-kneez was Keith Van Horn at Utah. (Clearly remember picking them to win it all). I thought Van Horn would be a boss in NBA. In hindsight, he's got the same elements of his skillset that most feel confident about in Porter.
1) Van Horn a successful rebounder at PF because more agile than 2000s PF, and at SF because of size and length.
2) Excellent mechanics on his shot (like pure beauty at Utah). % took big dip first couple years and didn't shoot a big volume early on (in part I think because of general NBA philosophy/pace and also pigeoning him at PF in that NBA).
3) But he was a scoring machine down low, really soft hands.
4) His mechanics still made for a valuable and efficient mid-range game

Those are offensive traits I think Porter will be able to come in and immediately show off. I think he'll bumslay on the block and surprise many with how he uses his size over smaller guys, agility/simple post-moves around bigger guys, and a general very soft touch for efficiency. I have little question he'll be able to rebound at 6-7 rpg right away. In this NBA, we'll see a difference with the amount of 3s he takes for sure.

A bigger difference between those two (and opportunity for him to really elevate over Van Horn) his getting his own shot off. Van Horn shots from deep were basically 100% assisted. In the flow of the first unit, I think Porter could be awesome on catch-and-shoot (from Lauri in the post, a Lavine drive, or Dunn moving it around perimeter) ... but I also think with the second unit you'll see him pull up or off the dribble on his own with at least mediocre efficiency.

If his back is healthy, then he can continue to add some muscle and evolve his game in many more directions. So to me, Van Horn(ish) is what I hope would be a baseline.

[ptpablo]

Lots of ELITE athletes are now vegan, from Lewis Hamilton on down. They do it for better health and better performance I think people are realizing that whole foods and not processed foods are much better for you. They help you with digestion significantly and also in retaining nutrients

Are beans included in this? Because atleast for me, they're God awful for digestion. Doesn't matter if they're red , black, or brown. All treat me terribly in the digestion department

Are you saying the more you eat, the more you fart?

Toot

[Axolotl]

They discounted the control group findings in the previous study, not their own.

And yes, they set out to study non-surgical as an option to surgical treatment. But since they wanted to compare treatments and their efficiency, they also got results for surgical treatment and compared those results against a control group of players who were not injured.