NBA Trade Thread #11

[Infinity2152]

Healthy Zion is undoubtedly one of the most potent offensive players in the league. It's a high risk/high reward move. Win, you have one of the best players in the league for relatively low cost. Lose, and you have a supremely overpaid benchwarmer for the cost of Zach Lavine plus picks, etc. He might be the most injury prone player in the league, next to another #1 pick Ben Simmons. Great talent, injuries destroy his value. He's probably looking at a minimum contract.

Rebuilding a team, do you really want to build around a player you KNOW is likely to miss a lot of time? And spend most of your money and resources to do it?

[HomoSapien]

Healthy Zion is undoubtedly one of the most potent offensive players in the league. It's a high risk/high reward move. Win, you have one of the best players in the league for relatively low cost. Lose, and you have a supremely overpaid benchwarmer for the cost of Zach Lavine plus picks, etc. He might be the most injury prone player in the league, next to another #1 pick Ben Simmons. Great talent, injuries destroy his value. He's probably looking at a minimum contract.

Rebuilding a team, do you really want to build around a player you KNOW is likely to miss a lot of time? And spend most of your money and resources to do it?

No, you don't want to in an ideal world but what are we losing out on here? The next Patrick Williams or Dalen Terry? Right now, none of our young players is projected to be a future all-star. Chances are Zion won't pan out, but if he can stay healthy we automatically have a true franchise player. Not a Zach LaVine-level franchise player. Not a Coby White-level building block. We have a guy that's good enough to be the face of the league.

I don't care if it ends up being a disaster. At least with him there is hope. The path we're on now has none.

[Dan Z]

Trade Williams and Ball and you hope he just needs a change of scenery. Its a risk but this is probably the only way in the next 5 years to sniff a top 10 guy.

It's definitely not the only way.

It's definitely a risk, a major risk. Is he a top 10 guy if he spends half the season (I'm being optimistic here) on the bench?

I'm going to have to agree to disagree.

Zion is extremely high on my do not want list.

When he plays his teams win more than they lose. Injury is a big risk but it's the only chance the Bulls have.

What's New Orleans record when he plays? I mean for his career. I'm not sure where to look that up.

[prolific passer]

Healthy Zion is undoubtedly one of the most potent offensive players in the league. It's a high risk/high reward move. Win, you have one of the best players in the league for relatively low cost. Lose, and you have a supremely overpaid benchwarmer for the cost of Zach Lavine plus picks, etc. He might be the most injury prone player in the league, next to another #1 pick Ben Simmons. Great talent, injuries destroy his value. He's probably looking at a minimum contract.

Rebuilding a team, do you really want to build around a player you KNOW is likely to miss a lot of time? And spend most of your money and resources to do it?

No, you don't want to in an ideal world but what are we losing out on here? The next Patrick Williams or Dalen Terry? Right now, none of our young players is projected to be a future all-star. Chances are Zion won't pan out, but if he can stay healthy we automatically have a true franchise player. Not a Zach LaVine-level franchise player. Not a Coby White-level building block. We have a guy that's good enough to be the face of the league.

I don't care if it ends up being a disaster. At least with him there is hope. The path we're on now has none.

A core of Zion, Matas, Ayo, and Coby does sound interesting. Maybe even Giddey but who knows about that one

[Jcool0]

It's definitely not the only way.

It's definitely a risk, a major risk. Is he a top 10 guy if he spends half the season (I'm being optimistic here) on the bench?

I'm going to have to agree to disagree.

Zion is extremely high on my do not want list.

When he plays his teams win more than they lose. Injury is a big risk but it's the only chance the Bulls have.

What's New Orleans record when he plays? I mean for his career. I'm not sure where to look that up.

He played 70 games last year and NO went 42-28. 2022 was 17-12 in 29 games. 2020 he went 29-32 with a +5.6 on/off & 27 PER.

[Infinity2152]

Healthy Zion is undoubtedly one of the most potent offensive players in the league. It's a high risk/high reward move. Win, you have one of the best players in the league for relatively low cost. Lose, and you have a supremely overpaid benchwarmer for the cost of Zach Lavine plus picks, etc. He might be the most injury prone player in the league, next to another #1 pick Ben Simmons. Great talent, injuries destroy his value. He's probably looking at a minimum contract.

Rebuilding a team, do you really want to build around a player you KNOW is likely to miss a lot of time? And spend most of your money and resources to do it?

No, you don't want to in an ideal world but what are we losing out on here? The next Patrick Williams or Dalen Terry? Right now, none of our young players is projected to be a future all-star. Chances are Zion won't pan out, but if he can stay healthy we automatically have a true franchise player. Not a Zach LaVine-level franchise player. Not a Coby White-level building block. We have a guy that's good enough to be the face of the league.

I don't care if it ends up being a disaster. At least with him there is hope. The path we're on now has none.

Problem with that is Zion's contract runs thru 3 more years after this one. We sign him and he's injured for the next three years, we're definitely way worse off than without, and EVERYBODY will be saying we should have known better. We JUST went thru the same thing with Lonzo! Taking us years to recover, and he's half the cost of Zion. Locking up that amount of cap for 3 more years is an opportunity cost for what we could have gotten with that money and flexibility. That has to be added to the cost of even acquiring Zion, which is probably Lavine (or whatever we could get for him) plus picks.

He's played 5 years including this, missed most of the season in 3, missed 21 games the 4th. Then he played 70, so not the whole season even then. He's been injured literally every year. Extremely low chances he plays 65+ games the next 3 years, he's done it once.

This would be a desperation gamble, that doesn't increase the odds of success. We can improve this team without him. Notice no team that's actually good is interested in trading for him. We have a team full of young players with moveable contracts, most of our draft picks, and two former AllStars we're anticipating trading for more picks and cap space. Why would we have no hope? Because like 20+ other teams in the league, we don't have a top 10 player right now?

[prolific passer]

I won't be surprised if Zion ends up magically healthy if he goes to a situation that has a chance of winning.

[HomoSapien]

Healthy Zion is undoubtedly one of the most potent offensive players in the league. It's a high risk/high reward move. Win, you have one of the best players in the league for relatively low cost. Lose, and you have a supremely overpaid benchwarmer for the cost of Zach Lavine plus picks, etc. He might be the most injury prone player in the league, next to another #1 pick Ben Simmons. Great talent, injuries destroy his value. He's probably looking at a minimum contract.

Rebuilding a team, do you really want to build around a player you KNOW is likely to miss a lot of time? And spend most of your money and resources to do it?

No, you don't want to in an ideal world but what are we losing out on here? The next Patrick Williams or Dalen Terry? Right now, none of our young players is projected to be a future all-star. Chances are Zion won't pan out, but if he can stay healthy we automatically have a true franchise player. Not a Zach LaVine-level franchise player. Not a Coby White-level building block. We have a guy that's good enough to be the face of the league.

I don't care if it ends up being a disaster. At least with him there is hope. The path we're on now has none.

Problem with that is Zion's contract runs thru 3 more years after this one. We sign him and he's injured for the next three years, we're definitely way worse off than without, and EVERYBODY will be saying we should have known better. We JUST went thru the same thing with Lonzo! Taking us years to recover, and he's half the cost of Zion. Locking up that amount of cap for 3 more years is an opportunity cost for what we could have gotten with that money and flexibility. That has to be added to the cost of even acquiring Zion, which is probably Lavine (or whatever we could get for him) plus picks.

He's played 5 years including this, missed most of the season in 3, missed 21 games the 4th. Then he played 70, so not the whole season even then. He's been injured literally every year. Extremely low chances he plays 65+ games the next 3 years, he's done it once.

This would be a desperation gamble, that doesn't increase the odds of success. We can improve this team without him. Notice no team that's actually good is interested in trading for him.

His contract is not an issue:

On Thursday, Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic reported that the final three years of Williamson's contract are no longer guaranteed because he missed more than 22 games last season. That means the Pelicans could waive Williamson after the 2024-25 season and be left with no dead cap hit.

However, "the contract also has ways for Williamson to earn back the guarantees by playing in enough games and hitting specific weigh-in checkpoints," Vorkunov wrote.

Williamson can guarantee his entire 2025-26 salary by playing in at least 61 games this year. The same goes for the 2026-27 and 2027-28 campaigns in the ensuing years. Still, the unique structure of the contract gives the Pelicans—or any team that acquires Williamson—plenty of outs if he suffers another major injury.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2023/12/22/why-zion-williamsons-future-is-up-in-the-air-after-missing-benchmark-for-guaranteed-contract/

As the old saying goes, fortune favors the bold. The risk here isn't as big as it may seem.

[Infinity2152]

I won't be surprised if Zion ends up magically healthy if he goes to a situation that has a chance of winning.

The man had a torn meniscus and a fractured foot, he's playing on those on a winning team?

It's not just his weight. When combined with his ridiculous explosive power, he puts unreal stress on his joints, tendons and bones. Playing basketball, leaping high, coming down hard, quick stops and lateral movement, didn't he explode his shoe in a game once just stopping fast?

[prolific passer]

I won't be surprised if Zion ends up magically healthy if he goes to a situation that has a chance of winning.

The man had a torn meniscus and a fractured foot, he's playing on those on a winning team?

It's not just his weight. When combined with his ridiculous explosive power, he puts unreal stress on his joints, tendons and bones. Playing basketball, leaping high, coming down hard, quick stops and lateral movement, didn't he explode his shoe in a game once just stopping fast?

Yeah. The explosive shoe happened in college at duke. Really what started his injury issues.

[Jcool0]

Healthy Zion is undoubtedly one of the most potent offensive players in the league. It's a high risk/high reward move. Win, you have one of the best players in the league for relatively low cost. Lose, and you have a supremely overpaid benchwarmer for the cost of Zach Lavine plus picks, etc. He might be the most injury prone player in the league, next to another #1 pick Ben Simmons. Great talent, injuries destroy his value. He's probably looking at a minimum contract.

Rebuilding a team, do you really want to build around a player you KNOW is likely to miss a lot of time? And spend most of your money and resources to do it?

No, you don't want to in an ideal world but what are we losing out on here? The next Patrick Williams or Dalen Terry? Right now, none of our young players is projected to be a future all-star. Chances are Zion won't pan out, but if he can stay healthy we automatically have a true franchise player. Not a Zach LaVine-level franchise player. Not a Coby White-level building block. We have a guy that's good enough to be the face of the league.

I don't care if it ends up being a disaster. At least with him there is hope. The path we're on now has none.

Problem with that is Zion's contract runs thru 3 more years after this one. We sign him and he's injured for the next three years, we're definitely way worse off than without, and EVERYBODY will be saying we should have known better. We JUST went thru the same thing with Lonzo! Taking us years to recover, and he's half the cost of Zion. Locking up that amount of cap for 3 more years is an opportunity cost for what we could have gotten with that money and flexibility. That has to be added to the cost of even acquiring Zion, which is probably Lavine (or whatever we could get for him) plus picks.

He's played 5 years including this, missed most of the season in 3, missed 21 games the 4th. Then he played 70, so not the whole season even then. He's been injured literally every year. Extremely low chances he plays 65+ games the next 3 years, he's done it once.

This would be a desperation gamble, that doesn't increase the odds of success. We can improve this team without him. Notice no team that's actually good is interested in trading for him. We have a team full of young players with moveable contracts, most of our draft picks, and two former AllStars we're anticipating trading for more picks and cap space. Why would we have no hope? Because like 20+ other teams in the league, we don't have a top 10 player right now?

Before Zion. AD was the injury prone star in NO. Granted not as bad as Zion. But he had a lot of injuries early on.

[Infinity2152]

No, you don't want to in an ideal world but what are we losing out on here? The next Patrick Williams or Dalen Terry? Right now, none of our young players is projected to be a future all-star. Chances are Zion won't pan out, but if he can stay healthy we automatically have a true franchise player. Not a Zach LaVine-level franchise player. Not a Coby White-level building block. We have a guy that's good enough to be the face of the league.

I don't care if it ends up being a disaster. At least with him there is hope. The path we're on now has none.

Problem with that is Zion's contract runs thru 3 more years after this one. We sign him and he's injured for the next three years, we're definitely way worse off than without, and EVERYBODY will be saying we should have known better. We JUST went thru the same thing with Lonzo! Taking us years to recover, and he's half the cost of Zion. Locking up that amount of cap for 3 more years is an opportunity cost for what we could have gotten with that money and flexibility. That has to be added to the cost of even acquiring Zion, which is probably Lavine (or whatever we could get for him) plus picks.

He's played 5 years including this, missed most of the season in 3, missed 21 games the 4th. Then he played 70, so not the whole season even then. He's been injured literally every year. Extremely low chances he plays 65+ games the next 3 years, he's done it once.

This would be a desperation gamble, that doesn't increase the odds of success. We can improve this team without him. Notice no team that's actually good is interested in trading for him. We have a team full of young players with moveable contracts, most of our draft picks, and two former AllStars we're anticipating trading for more picks and cap space. Why would we have no hope? Because like 20+ other teams in the league, we don't have a top 10 player right now?

Before Zion. AD was the injury prone star in NO. Granted not as bad as Zion. But he had a lot of injuries early on.

So did Ben Simmons. Zion's problem seems structural to me and won't change unless he loses a LOT of weight. Davis is like 6'10, 250. Average 6'6 NBA player is probably around 200 lbs. Zion's around 285 I think, so between 40-50% heavier. Think he's been rumored to go up to 300 lbs. Then he's super explosive. Imagine you build a car the same size as a sedan, then add 40% weight, a turbocharged engine, then drive it at 180 mph daily. How fast are you going to go thru tires, brake pads, etc. Far faster than normal, right? It's not just likely, it's inevitable. He's heavier than Embid and most 7' centers, he's around Jokic weight.

[SirKaiser]

Not crazy about trading for Zion, but I wouldn't be opposed to trading Coby, PWill, and Duarte for Zion. Makes sense for both teams if the Bulls are looking for an "all-in" move.

[prolific passer]

Zion has always been in the 280 pound range pretty much since college. It just varies between muscle and fat it seems.

As for the trade for Zach. Pels are gonna have to add more to it for salaries to match.
If you move on from Zach then maybe Coby can turn it around and it'll open up more time for the other guards on the team. You trade Pat and Lonzo and then that opens up more pt for Matas at possibly Pats spot and other backup guards on the bench.

That's really the only positives from those trades.

[kodo]

So did Ben Simmons. Zion's problem seems structural to me and won't change unless he loses a LOT of weight. Davis is like 6'10, 250. Average 6'6 NBA player is probably around 200 lbs. Zion's around 285 I think, so between 40-50% heavier. Think he's been rumored to go up to 300 lbs. Then he's super explosive. Imagine you build a car the same size as a sedan, then add 40% weight, a turbocharged engine, then drive it at 180 mph daily. How fast are you going to go thru tires, brake pads, etc. Far faster than normal, right? It's not just likely, it's inevitable. He's heavier than Embid and most 7' centers, he's around Jokic weight.

Agreed and that's why he'll always be injury prone if not unable to play soon. We are at our lightest weights in college and he was 285 then and in fantastic shape. There was a shirtless pic floating around at the time of the draft and there was no fat on the guy at 285. Naturally he would be at 300+ as he approaches 30.

Anthony Davis is in excellent NBA shape, and he gained 35 lbs as he aged (220 in Kentucky, 255 now).

Zion has some extra flab on him now due to injury and being unable to play, but even when that rehab fat is gone he's still 285 when lean, if not 290. His game of exploding to the rim like Amare and Blake simply won't last very long, definitely not longer than those two.

That being said I don't think the FO thinks long-term. They just want a sales strategy for tickets, it was Derozan/Vuc, and it could be Zion next season. All I'll say it's better than retirement mode Wade or "hometown hero" Jabari Parker.

[Red8911]

These rumors involving other executive GMs making predictions about other teams is total BS. Same ones made up stuff about Bulls having a player sale to blow it up, or that Vuc would get traded for just second round picks.

Now it’s Zion but in reality they have no idea what AK and the Bulls want to do.

[Infinity2152]

Like I've been saying for years, losing Lonzo was the biggest killer of the Bulls the last three years imo. Not just losing the player, but the $20 mill dead cap. Not the team construction or Vuc's defense. With $20 mill, we could have mitigated some of that. Having Zion as $40 mill dead cap for 2-3 years right after we get out of this is just a risk I wouldn't take. Zion's not Lebron or Luka or Jokic or Wemby. He's a great offensive player when healthy, but don't know if he's even a 1A who could lead a team to a championship.

Hell, Butler's probably a better gamble for nearly the same money, and more likely to lead your team further then next 3 years. And I don't really want Butler.

[HomoSapien]

Like I've been saying for years, losing Lonzo was the biggest killer of the Bulls the last three years imo. Not just losing the player, but the $20 mill dead cap. Not the team construction or Vuc's defense. With $20 mill, we could have mitigated some of that. Having Zion as $40 mill dead cap for 2-3 years right after we get out of this is just a risk I wouldn't take. Zion's not Lebron or Luka or Jokic or Wemby. He's a great offensive player when healthy, but don't know if he's even a 1A who could lead a team to a championship.

Hell, Butler's probably a better gamble for nearly the same money, and more likely to lead your team further then next 3 years. And I don't really want Butler.

Take a look at the contract stipulations I posted above.

[prolific passer]

Like I've been saying for years, losing Lonzo was the biggest killer of the Bulls the last three years imo. Not just losing the player, but the $20 mill dead cap. Not the team construction or Vuc's defense. With $20 mill, we could have mitigated some of that. Having Zion as $40 mill dead cap for 2-3 years right after we get out of this is just a risk I wouldn't take. Zion's not Lebron or Luka or Jokic or Wemby. He's a great offensive player when healthy, but don't know if he's even a 1A who could lead a team to a championship.

Hell, Butler's probably a better gamble for nearly the same money, and more likely to lead your team further then next 3 years. And I don't really want Butler.

Bulls had their chances to retool the team after Lonzo went down but chose to stand pat.

[Infinity2152]

Like I've been saying for years, losing Lonzo was the biggest killer of the Bulls the last three years imo. Not just losing the player, but the $20 mill dead cap. Not the team construction or Vuc's defense. With $20 mill, we could have mitigated some of that. Having Zion as $40 mill dead cap for 2-3 years right after we get out of this is just a risk I wouldn't take. Zion's not Lebron or Luka or Jokic or Wemby. He's a great offensive player when healthy, but don't know if he's even a 1A who could lead a team to a championship.

Hell, Butler's probably a better gamble for nearly the same money, and more likely to lead your team further then next 3 years. And I don't really want Butler.

Take a look at the contract stipulations I posted above.

Got you. Missed that, didn't know about the contract stipulations. That makes a huge difference, changes my whole stance. Not afraid to pivot, lol. My primary concern was the dead cap over years. Yes, the Bulls had chances to re-tool after Lonzo's injury, but re-tool minus $20 mill and without knowing if Ball would come back. I think every year, medical professionals were saying he could come back this year. Predicting if he would come back is similar to guessing if Zion will play, lol. If Lonzo medically retired 3 years ago, I'm sure they would have retooled more.

Zion without the contract risk is worth going after. Still don't think he's a 1A, but he doesn't have to be to be worth his contract. Highest talent level player we can reasonably acquire now.