Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[nomorezorro]

to me, the biggest mystery about giddey's play is whether the foul-drawing is sustainable. if it is, i think that's a pretty huge floor-raiser from his previous 3.5 seasons. and it feels much more likely that he's able to keep that up than he is able to, say, develop his outside shot to the point he spaces the floor in any meaningful way

but i also could see that being a "teams haven't updated their scouting report" phenomenon, and once the book is out that giddey is a willing driver who seeks out contact at the hoop, opposing defenses adjust accordingly and force him to prove he can actually consistently finish at the rim rather than just sending him to the free throw line. (which maybe he can do, maybe he can't, but it's another in a long line of unknowns about what the future of his game looks like)

[dougthonus]

People also seem to forget that Giddey is not without leverage here. The Bulls - granted they created the scenario that required this - have publicly embraced Giddey as the present face of the franchise

I'm not sure Giddey is really all that popular with the fanbase. He certainly doesn't strike me as such. I don't think there's really all that much pressure here really.

(Matas being openly embraced as the future) and are reportedly (and pretty obviously regargless of reports) structuring a team around his style of play.

I don't think that's really true at all. What is the specific thing that Giddey unlocks for anyone?

The Bulls kinda have to sign him. Some of us super-nerds might not like that deal (I do think we nerds only have a vocal minority opposed), but the organization also has to look at the marketing and PR problems if Giddey walks. Not to mention AK. Giddey and Matas are his only two wins he can sell the fanbase. They are the only things the allow the Bulls to sell hope with a straight face.

Certainly AK probably thinks so. I agree with that. But call me a sociopath, but they literally do not have to, and the fans will be happiest with whatever creates the best outcome. What they think they want is only relevant if it works and only for a short period of time. Just like fans absolutely loved the Vuc trade until it was a disaster, heck a ton of the super die hard podcasters / bloggers that fawned over Vuc/AK when it happened have a lot of selective amnesia over that now and criticize it like they hated it, and these are professionals with some theoretical intellectual honesty in their reporting let alone common fans.

For all the "gotta play hardball!!!" posts in here, I think a lot of you don't really grasp the complexity to this from the Bulls' perspective.

It's self-imposed complexity. If your complexity is based on PR instead of doing the right thing, you will always lose in the long run and don't belong as a GM.

This isn't to say that Giddey is a losing proposition, but the arguments of "we sold him to the fans" or "we built a team around him" don't seem like valid arguments to me. Fans will turn on you the second a decision is bad, and there's nothing specific on this team that fits well with Giddey. For a guy that needs a ton of shooting and defense around him, we are woefully short on both.

[sco]

Look, I think situations like Utah is exactly why Giddey's agent hasn't given anything up yet. Why should he. He knows the Bulls aren't going to let him walk. His best move is the drum up an offer for them to match

[HomoSapien]

People also seem to forget that Giddey is not without leverage here. The Bulls - granted they created the scenario that required this - have publicly embraced Giddey as the present face of the franchise (Matas being openly embraced as the future) and are reportedly (and pretty obviously regargless of reports) structuring a team around his style of play. The Bulls kinda have to sign him. Some of us super-nerds might not like that deal (I do think we nerds only have a vocal minority opposed), but the organization also has to look at the marketing and PR problems if Giddey walks. Not to mention AK. Giddey and Matas are his only two wins he can sell the fanbase. They are the only things the allow the Bulls to sell hope with a straight face.

For all the "gotta play hardball!!!" posts in here, I think a lot of you don't really grasp the complexity to this from the Bulls' perspective.

That's where I am, too. Of course, Giddey needs the Bulls ... but AK needs him too. Acquiring him is one of his few good moves and his fantastic play gave him a lot of goodwill. So much of it hinges on Giddey being this overlooked young prospect who can transcend into an All-Start caliber player. ou take him out of the equation, and this rebuild really has almost nothing going for it. Not to mention, Donovan's system only seems to work when you have a PG like him or Ball and frankly there's very few players like that in the league.

[DuckIII]

People also seem to forget that Giddey is not without leverage here. The Bulls - granted they created the scenario that required this - have publicly embraced Giddey as the present face of the franchise

I'm not sure Giddey is really all that popular with the fanbase. He certainly doesn't strike me as such. I don't think there's really all that much pressure here really.

No offense here doug, but its been very clear since Day 1 that you don't want Giddey on this team and don't believe in any of the improvements you saw. It comes through in virtually every post about Giddey. I think you are probably projecting your opinion onto the fanbase. Even here among the hardcores if we put a post up asking if people want to sign vs. not sign Giddey even at a high number like $30 mil, the majority will be for retaining him.

(Matas being openly embraced as the future) and are reportedly (and pretty obviously regargless of reports) structuring a team around his style of play.

I don't think that's really true at all. What is the specific thing that Giddey unlocks for anyone?

Proves my point. The team is clearly trying to get rangy defenders who can fly up and down the court to play with Giddey, and the only trade they've made so far is to get a player designed to offset Giddey's weaknesses. KC even reported repeatedly prior to the draft that the Bulls would be drafting a guy who can play up tempo with Giddey around the new design - and then they did it.

And you don't even accept the premise that the team is choosing a style of play, and players, who fit with Giddey? Come on, doug.

I agree with that. But call me a sociopath, but they literally do not have to, and the fans will be happiest with whatever creates the best outcome. What they think they want is only relevant if it works and only for a short period of time. Just like fans absolutely loved the Vuc trade until it was a disaster, heck a ton of the super die hard podcasters / bloggers that fawned over Vuc/AK when it happened have a lot of selective amnesia over that now and criticize it like they hated it, and these are professionals with some theoretical intellectual honesty in their reporting let alone common fans.

You are right of course, but the FO won't look at it that way. Fans will be irate if the Bulls don't retain Giddey. Whether they are right to be irate about it is irrelevant to the dynamic that gives Giddey more leverage than many want to accept he has.

For all the "gotta play hardball!!!" posts in here, I think a lot of you don't really grasp the complexity to this from the Bulls' perspective.

It's self-imposed complexity. If your complexity is based on PR instead of doing the right thing, you will always lose in the long run and don't belong as a GM.

Its a complexity based on the reality of what teams do in balancing the objective team building part of it with the much less objective marketing/PR part of running a business.

[Stratmaster]

But $25-30M for that kind of guy is crazy, though, if he reverts back to that. It would be really ugly.

If he's the player he was after the LaVine trade, he's one of the better contracts in the league on that salary. I don't think either outcome is more likely than the other. If you want him to prove it again, there's a chance he gets more expensive and our situation gets even worse.

I think there's a higher chance he can't maintain that level of play, though certainly not impossible. Agree to disagree.

If he sustained that level of play he would be a max salary level guy. I don't think most of us believe he can play at that level for 82 games. But I believe he could play at a 25 mil level. Confidence for a player of his age makes a huge difference.

[Dez]

How??If he was that good the FO wouldn't be bringing players for taking his playing time like Matas and now Okoro?
No, he's just another bust and a very expensive one.It should be clear by now

What are you even saying? You think Matas and Okoro are going to be taking Giddey's playing time? They're duplicate players in the same role and position? Please define how Giddey is already a bust. I feel like you're just trolling at this point.

They're talking about Pat, not Giddey.

Someone jokingly mentioned offhand something like "Wait, you can actually negotiate with players instead of just giving them the bag for no reason like Pat?"

That's how Pat got dragged into this.

I was talking about Giddey improving every season not Williams, he sucks.

Well that explains things.

[MGB8]

Personally, I see Utah going for Giddey now that they cleared cap.

Read they cleared $28M in cap space and can clear another $4M by buying out Love. This is gonna suck for Chicago's leverage if he's their target.
Unless they're targeting Kuminga but that seems less likely with Markkanen there and they just traded away Collin Sexton and bought out Clarkson. They're going for a guard and they seem confident they'll get that guard.

Where did you read this. It isn’t reflected on Spotrac.

Per Spotrac, if they waive the non-guaranteed contracts of Kenyon Martin Jr. and Jaden Springer, and renounce all of their holds, they are at 131.5. Mind you, Springer is a cheap salary ( at 2.3 M) that has some talent. But if they do, that gives them 23.1 million, but it would be very hard to get much more space. Kevin Love isn’t going to give back all of his 4 million dollar salary, and that still wouldn’t give them much. I guess they could waive and stretch Nurkic - but then why wouldn’t they have done the same thing with Sexton?

Then Bulls would watch … so what is the point?

[dougthonus]

No offense here doug, but its been very clear since Day 1 that you don't want Giddey on this team

FWIW, go look up my posts from when we traded for Giddey, I was one of the few people that thought it was a fine trade and wasn't complaining about it.

and don't believe in any of the improvements you saw. It comes through in virtually every post about Giddey.

I'm highly questioning of the improvement for sure, and probably by nature, I tend to devil's advocate a lot, so part of it is likely that.

I think you are probably projecting your opinion onto the fanbase. Even here among the hardcores if we put a post up asking if people want to sign vs. not sign Giddey even at a high number like $30 mil, the majority will be for retaining him.

You can certainly start a poll and find out I mean that might be correct, I really have no idea.

Proves my point. The team is clearly trying to get rangy defenders who can fly up and down the court to play with Giddey, and the only trade they've made so far is to get a player designed to offset Giddey's weaknesses. KC even reported repeatedly prior to the draft that the Bulls would be drafting a guy who can play up tempo with Giddey around the new design - and then they did it.

And you don't even accept the premise that the team is choosing a style of play, and players, who fit with Giddey? Come on, doug.

I don't mean this to be insulting, but is your view that a team that plays in transition really well but can't defend or shoot is going to be a good team built around Giddey? We're woefully lacking both shooting and defense on this team, and critically we are lacking in 3&D players (0) that you probably need around anyone, but you in particular need around a guy like Giddey that you're not confident is going to be a plus at either.

Because I think just saying we got some young prospects that are athletic and can run is not building a team around Giddey. I would say in fact, that if that is our strategy, it is further evidence that our GM doesn't know what he is doing. I like Noa and Matas as prospects whether Giddey is here or not TBH, and I'm not sure Giddey particularly unlocks either.

Matas is a guy I'd like to eventually see get a lot more on-ball reps. Noa is a guy I really have no idea about one way or the other, we'll see. Certainly a pass first PG that orchestrates offense can help build good habits though, and Giddey is such a guy, but so could a PG that creates an advantage off the dribble and draws double teams (Giddey is not such a guy). I think lots of different people could help these guys develop.

You are right of course, but the FO won't look at it that way. Fans will be irate if the Bulls don't retain Giddey. Whether they are right to be irate about it is irrelevant to the dynamic that gives Giddey more leverage than many want to accept he has.

I agree that fans might be irate and that the FO won't look at it that way. I completely agree with that.

However, what I think you have dismissed is that fans will be irate longer if you are wrong. When you put pressure on yourself to make fans happy in the short term or because you previously committed to someone (like say you had to keep Patrick Williams last summer, he was starting to bust out before injury!) then you will simply make bad, inefficient decisions.

Its a complexity based on the reality of what teams do in balancing the objective team building part of it with the much less objective marketing/PR part of running a business.

I don't believe it has to be. I believe the reality is that fans only ultimately care about results. These decisions in the name of PR only work if they are good decisions. Every decision made with a marketing influence that is ultimately the wrong decision will ultimately also be bad marketing. Thus, you have to remove the marketing / PR as any influence and only make the best decision.

I think bringing Giddey back at the right price makes sense. For me that's around 25M, if that makes me a super Giddey hater than fair enough, I'm a Giddey hater.

[fleet]

What are you even saying? You think Matas and Okoro are going to be taking Giddey's playing time? They're duplicate players in the same role and position? Please define how Giddey is already a bust. I feel like you're just trolling at this point.

They're talking about Pat, not Giddey.

Someone jokingly mentioned offhand something like "Wait, you can actually negotiate with players instead of just giving them the bag for no reason like Pat?"

That's how Pat got dragged into this.

I was talking about Giddey improving every season not Williams, he sucks.

Well that explains things.

Giddey is an old school dinosaur. Gets incrementally better year by year. We want instant success.

Pat, he sucks.

[Dez]

They're talking about Pat, not Giddey.

Someone jokingly mentioned offhand something like "Wait, you can actually negotiate with players instead of just giving them the bag for no reason like Pat?"

That's how Pat got dragged into this.

I was talking about Giddey improving every season not Williams, he sucks.

Well that explains things.

Giddey is an old school dinosaur. Gets incrementally better year by year. We want instant success.

Pat, he sucks.

He does kinda run like a dinosaur.

[fleet]

I was talking about Giddey improving every season not Williams, he sucks.

Well that explains things.

Giddey is an old school dinosaur. Gets incrementally better year by year. We want instant success.

Pat, he sucks.

He does kinda run like a dinosaur.

So did Magic

J/K

[keloms]

Doesn't matter at this point, trash with Giddey, trash without Giddey.

[PaKii94]

My 2c:

I think giddey is the player of the second half. Maybe his high 3pt% is not sustainable but it will be better than the first half. You guys are underestimating the negative impacts from Lavine/Vuc with heavy usage+heavy minutes. It's a compounding negative effect. It's also why Coby/Lauri didn't "take off" until Lavine was gone

As far as "giddey will cater once he's off ball"... Let's deal with that when we come to it. We are far from contention/having to worry about that.OKC only moved from him because of SGA. Otherwise he'd be putting up these numbers on OKC.

We have desperately needed a floor general for years, and now we have a young one who is looking to break out and now we decide to play chicken with him??

I also think the Vuc empty stats player comparison is unfair. Giddey is still a solid positive impact player. I do agree the counting stats are a bit inflated (but that's just the game nowadays) in the sense that he's not at the impact that the counting stats would indicated (all NBA/all star starter/MVP etc) but it's still a very good player. Vuc (and Lavine) on the other hand has always been negative impact and defense is so much more crucial for a center.

[ozbull]

I think the rebuild can be a borderline success over the next 3-5 years if the following happens:

- Giddey is paid like the #3 guy he could and should develop into. I think $20-25m is consistent with that.
- Matas or Noa develop into something nearing a #1 or #2 guy.
- We attract the best FA in my lifetime to be the other #1 or #2 guy.

I'm not as pessimistic about our future as some. I can see a couple of very small green shoots coming through the dirt.

The Giddey negotiation is testing my patience, but I think it's a good sign ahead of the Coby negotiation. I think it's a sign the Bulls are more 'self aware' than they have been in previous years.

[PaKii94]

I just find the quibbling about the contract #s funny/annoying. I get our FA is incompetent but we should have higher expectations. We are a big market and should be able to pivot if it doesn't work out. LA/NY/BOS/MIL all continue to make moves regardless of contracts. We can too. It's not the contract that will be the albatross it's the FO

[ThisGuyFawkes]

How??If he was that good the FO wouldn't be bringing players for taking his playing time like Matas and now Okoro?
No, he's just another bust and a very expensive one.It should be clear by now

What are you even saying? You think Matas and Okoro are going to be taking Giddey's playing time? They're duplicate players in the same role and position? Please define how Giddey is already a bust. I feel like you're just trolling at this point.

They're talking about Pat, not Giddey.

Someone jokingly mentioned offhand something like "Wait, you can actually negotiate with players instead of just giving them the bag for no reason like Pat?"

That's how Pat got dragged into this.

Ahh, I gotcha. My apologies.

[DuckIII]

No offense here doug, but its been very clear since Day 1 that you don't want Giddey on this team

FWIW, go look up my posts from when we traded for Giddey, I was one of the few people that thought it was a fine trade and wasn't complaining about it.

and don't believe in any of the improvements you saw. It comes through in virtually every post about Giddey.

I'm highly questioning of the improvement for sure, and probably by nature, I tend to devil's advocate a lot, so part of it is likely that.

You're right, and I should have said you've been pessimistic about resigning him since the trade. Not the trade itself.

I don't mean this to be insulting, but is your view that a team that plays in transition really well but can't defend or shoot is going to be a good team built around Giddey? We're woefully lacking both shooting and defense on this team, and critically we are lacking in 3&D players (0) that you probably need around anyone, but you in particular need around a guy like Giddey that you're not confident is going to be a plus at either.

You're blurring concepts. There's a difference between building a team around Giddey - which, to be clear, the Bulls are certainly doing - and having succeeded in completing a rebuild around Giddey. No, I absolutely do not believe that Giddey, Coby, Matas and a complete question mark in Noa, without more, is going to be good. The acquisition of shooting and more defenders (I project Matas and Noa as plus defenders) is a process. The Bulls just shifted to a Giddey-themed rebuild (for lack of a better term) 4 months ago. If done properly, it will take several years from now and multiple moves.

EDIT: We do have a 3-D player, Okoro. Its part of the evidence we are building around Giddey. If we weren't, we wouldn't have traded Ball yet. And in doing so, we targeted one of the exact things we need with Giddey.

Do I think having two very long, very athletic, extremely fast, bouncy, full-court 3/4 hybrids filling lanes on the break and covering ground defensively in the half court behind Giddey's back are logical to that formula? Yes. Would I prefer that Noa have a 3 ball in place and ready to go? Yes. But we picked 12th. Given what AK is forcing himself to work with, I think the guys he picked at 11 and 12 the last two drafts are fantastic, unique pieces (in theory) for a team developed around Giddey's strengths and weaknesses.

Because I think just saying we got some young prospects that are athletic and can run is not building a team around Giddey. I would say in fact, that if that is our strategy, it is further evidence that our GM doesn't know what he is doing. I like Noa and Matas as prospects whether Giddey is here or not TBH, and I'm not sure Giddey particularly unlocks either.

Maybe its just me, but when you say the 6'8 PG who pushes pace like a Ferrari and is one of the most creative, effective passers in the NBA won't "unlock" two raw rim-running, full-court athletes who love to play that way, it doesn't feel like an objective analysis of the personnel. You see it differently, okay.

The rest of it is just me taking into consideration things I know they will consider, and you saying they shouldn't consider it. I don't disagree with you. Its just that I'm not analyzing a hypothetical. In the real world with human beings who do more than run probability algorithms, Josh Giddey has some leverage of his own. Should he? I guess I don't really care either way. He just does.

[rosenthall]

to me, the biggest mystery about giddey's play is whether the foul-drawing is sustainable. if it is, i think that's a pretty huge floor-raiser from his previous 3.5 seasons. and it feels much more likely that he's able to keep that up than he is able to, say, develop his outside shot to the point he spaces the floor in any meaningful way

but i also could see that being a "teams haven't updated their scouting report" phenomenon, and once the book is out that giddey is a willing driver who seeks out contact at the hoop, opposing defenses adjust accordingly and force him to prove he can actually consistently finish at the rim rather than just sending him to the free throw line. (which maybe he can do, maybe he can't, but it's another in a long line of unknowns about what the future of his game looks like)

I actually wondered this myself earlier in the season. This was post-ASB, when Giddey was getting to the line like crazy.

I wrote about it here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2417677&p=117928702&hilit=Giddey#p117928702

There are lots of good points there.

Overall, I agree that Giddey's foul drawing isn't set in stone because it seems like he operates on pretty thin margins to create them, so they could disappear with more defensive attention or injury.

However, one good thing he has going for him here is that teams have to guard against his pass, and he's very good at using that to open up driving lanes for himself. I don't see that changing over time.

[rosenthall]

I am okay with that, but I see no reason to pay him more than the offers I stated. I don't think he meaningfully moves wins. If he leaves next year, it opens 30M in extra cap room we won't be paying him to get a replacement, and I think we can get a viable replacement instead.

Some of this is just what you think of him as a player, and there's probably nothing we can say to convince one another, but I think the Giddey we saw in the second half of the year does meaningfully move wins and can merit a 30 million / year deal. I'm happy to have him for less than that of course, but I think I just draw my line in the sand at a different place than you.

I agree that paying Giddey has risks, and don't think he's going to recreate his last 25 games over the course of an entire season, but I think the odds are that you get something pretty close to that. I think many of the arguments against his play and value and not being a championship calibre player is basically letting what's best get in the way of what's good.

Vuc had an active trade market that deadline. We had to include Wendell Carter Jr as the cherry on top to get the deal done. Even if we hadn't made the trade, someone would have put together a palatable offer for him.

Vuc made an All-Star game that year and the team was well positioned to maximize his success. We're in the same position as Giddey.

FWIW, I understand people who think Giddey is just going to be really good and want to gamble on his continued improvement. I don't believe in it, but I acknowledge the possibility that I could be dead wrong on this one.

You're not so much gambling on his continued improvement, but gambling on whether or not he can replicate stuff that he's already shown over longer stretches of time. I doubt that Giddey is going to improve past the 22/10/10 he was putting up on 60% TS to end the year. It would actually be hard to do that. It's one reason why I'm okay with him on a richer deal than you. You don't have to make a huge leap to project how his contract can be valuable.

I would not go down this path of thinking "well maybe he can play us into mediocre then we can trade him later", we could just not sign him, compete for a lotto pick in an absolutely stacked draft class, move Coby/Ayo now, and rebuild around Matas, Noah, hopefully an elite prospect in 2026, whatever picks we can get for Coby/Ayo (possibly Giddey in a S&T) and then also have 120M in cap room next year to bring in other players.

The big swing factor here is that you will be able to literally take Giddey's market value deal and turn it into any market value player you want next year. This isn't a bird rights trap where if you don't sign Giddey you don't have a meaningful way to reallocate the money.

Signing guys now so you can trade them later is the path that is taken by most GM's nowadays, presumably because they see it as a more reliable way to extract value from a roster, instead of relying on single-shot FA periods, which are a lot harder to forecast.

I'm skeptical that we're a good bet to get someone significantly better than Giddey, particularly in UFA. I don't see swapping out Giddey's contract negotiations this offseason for other FA signings next offseason as all that appealing. The FA's we sign probably won't be younger than Giddey. Since the best FA's are almost always signed before their contracts expire you're usually choosing from the B-List anyways. We won't have the benefit of RFA to suppress anyone's contract value, and we'll be signing FA's against a bigger cap and more teams that project to have money to spend.

I dunno.....I think trading a signed Giddey this offseason for more capspace next offseason has worse downside than what we get by just retaining Giddey for 25-30M AAV.