Butler trade rumor - KC Johnson update: pg 63

[jnrjr79]

The likelihood of getting a nothing player with a single top 5 pick is way too high for that to be the primary return. Gotta get 2 - 3 serious prospects/players to consider trading Jimmy.

Jimmy is worth three Top 5 picks. Minimum. I know people think I'm joking because they overrate lottery picks, but I'm not.

Here, I will play a game. I will pick 3 numbers at random - 2, 3, 4. And three years at random, 2011, 2012, 2009. Off the top of my head I don't know what guys were drafted those years, in what order.

OK it turns out to be

Derrick Williams
Kanter
Tristan Thompson

MKG
Beal
Dion Waiters

Thabeet
Harden
Tyreke

See, I wasn't kidding.

I've never understood the logic of looking at the exact player chosen at a given pick. If you're talking about the value of a certain pick, it makes more sense to look at what players were available at that spot. The assumption of trading for picks is that you actually make the right selection with those picks. Of course it won't be a good trade if you screw up with your selection.

So if you go with the 2012 draft using the 2, 3, and 4 picks, you could have gotten:

Damian Lillard
Draymond Green
Andre Drummond

2011:
Klay Thompson
Kawhi Leonard
Jimmy Butler

2009:

James Harden
Steph Curry
DeMar Derozan

This is not a good way to look at it. Jimmy Butler was the last pick of the 2011 first round. So, yes, in retrospect you'd spend a top pick on him, but GMs don't have time machines. It was unknowable at the time the draft occurred that Jimmy Butler would blossom into a star player, and not a single team in the league, even if they had the best scouts in the universe, would have drafted him with a top pick.

In assessing whether a top draft pick is enough return for Butler, it's completely irrelevant to cite guys who were available at the end of the draft. If anything, these examples just show the inherent unpredictability of the draft and are arguments against trading Butler, because they cause you to think "Gee, I could get a Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, or Kawhi Leonard without even having a lottery pick!"

[PMONSTER]

The likelihood of getting a nothing player with a single top 5 pick is way too high for that to be the primary return. Gotta get 2 - 3 serious prospects/players to consider trading Jimmy.

Jimmy is worth three Top 5 picks. Minimum. I know people think I'm joking because they overrate lottery picks, but I'm not.

Here, I will play a game. I will pick 3 numbers at random - 2, 3, 4. And three years at random, 2011, 2012, 2009. Off the top of my head I don't know what guys were drafted those years, in what order.

OK it turns out to be

Derrick Williams
Kanter
Tristan Thompson

MKG
Beal
Dion Waiters

Thabeet
Harden
Tyreke

See, I wasn't kidding.

That's a fun game, but you don't take in account that you have terrible GM's making those picks consecutively. In you own game, you can clearly go through the draft order and find the right guys who are obviously better than who you mention. Draft picks aren't a lock, but that's on the team picking. Butler is worth one lotto pick if the Bulls pick the right guy....can't ask for three because you think your GM might **** up at least two picks.

Yeah.... potential is worth a lot. Potential along with youth is even more valuable.

[jnrjr79]

So if you go with the 2012 draft using the 2, 3, and 4 picks, you could have gotten:

Damian Lillard
Draymond Green
Andre Drummond

2011:
Klay Thompson
Kawhi Leonard
Jimmy Butler

2009:

James Harden
Steph Curry
DeMar Derozan

Lend me your time machine. I'll use it to pick stocks, not players, and I'll pay you $100 million per year for its usage. Deal?

This is a better and more succinct way of making my point.

[TheStig]

Embiid might have the highest trade value of anyone in the league aside from the obvious guys like LBJ and Curry. No way Philly even thinks about trading him for Jimmy. Simmons and a first they probably would think about long and hard.

Not even close. He missed a couple of years with injuries and is on a minutes limit. He's strung together what? 30 games? Please, he's a great prospect but nowhere near the value of guys like Kat or AD or Greek Freak. That might change in a year. But certainly not the case of elite players or the young guys doing great.

[biggestbullsfan]

Embiid might have the highest trade value of anyone in the league aside from the obvious guys like LBJ and Curry. No way Philly even thinks about trading him for Jimmy. Simmons and a first they probably would think about long and hard.

Not even close. He missed a couple of years with injuries and is on a minutes limit. He's strung together what? 30 games? Please, he's a great prospect but nowhere near the value of guys like Kat or AD or Greek Freak. That might change in a year. But certainly not the case of elite players or the young guys doing great.

GM's will trade actual star players for potential if they think the ceiling is high enough. All those injury plagued years are out the window if they think they are in the past. People tend to have short term memories on these things.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Embiid might have the highest trade value of anyone in the league aside from the obvious guys like LBJ and Curry. No way Philly even thinks about trading him for Jimmy. Simmons and a first they probably would think about long and hard.

Not even close. He missed a couple of years with injuries and is on a minutes limit. He's strung together what? 30 games? Please, he's a great prospect but nowhere near the value of guys like Kat or AD or Greek Freak. That might change in a year. But certainly not the case of elite players or the young guys doing great.

Embiid is a monster already and what he's done in limited minutes is on par with any young talent in the NBA.

[digitaldropoff]

I think Jimmy alone could get u a dame lillard or maybe john wall but would it be worth it?

It will be worth it if you have a plan to pair one of those guys with another complimenting star?

[chrispatrick]

Embiid might have the highest trade value of anyone in the league aside from the obvious guys like LBJ and Curry. No way Philly even thinks about trading him for Jimmy. Simmons and a first they probably would think about long and hard.

Not even close. He missed a couple of years with injuries and is on a minutes limit. He's strung together what? 30 games? Please, he's a great prospect but nowhere near the value of guys like Kat or AD or Greek Freak. That might change in a year. But certainly not the case of elite players or the young guys doing great.

Embiid is a monster already and what he's done in limited minutes is on par with any young talent in the NBA.

I don't think there's any issue with what he's done on the floor, just that his injury risk is so high that Embiid's trade value takes a significant hit and doesn't allow him to be in that top tier of trade value until teams can have some confidence in his health going forward.

[ATRAIN53]

This has to mean his jersey isn't selling.

If he's in the top 10 there, with the deal he's on, there's no way you trade him because he still makes the Bulls competitive and the UC is selling out. He's our identity, he's a superstar on the rise and he has a TON of personality. He's so marketable. There is only a handful of players like him in the NBA.

So Wades #3 Bulls must be out selling him...

It's shades of Elton Brand, a guy who was posting 20/10 but not 'good enough' to get us over the hump. He may not have been a HOF guy who delivered titles, but he was still better than what we traded him for.

[jnrjr79]

One useful way to think about this is by employing an expected value proposition. Lawyers sometimes think this way when assessing whether to settle a case.

Let's say I have a case where my client had a suitcase containing $1 million that was destroyed in a fire at a hotel. I think the fire was the hotel's fault, but the hotel contends it was an unknown arsonist. In order to win at trial, even though we know my client's damages are $1 million, I would have to prove that the fire was the hotel's fault in order to get a verdict against them. If I think I have a 50% chance at winning at trial, then the expected value of my case is $500,000, (50% chance of recovery multiplied by $1 million). So, I should consider settling my case without going to trial for roughly $500,000, rather than risk proceeding and getting nothing.

In terms of trading Jimmy, when you look at the draft picks received in exchange, you need to value those based upon the likelihood that the players selected (combined potentially with free agent acquisitions you can make if you realize a cap space gain due to the trade) will meet or exceed the value of Jimmy Butler when factoring in not only his basketball abilities, but also his age and contract status.

Jimmy is a top 10 player in the NBA. He is on a cheap contract for 3 more seasons after this one. He is just entering his prime, playing the best basketball of his career. Given his contract, he might even be a top 5 asset as a trade chip. For instance, I would say that Butler is a more valuable trade piece than Durant, because Durant can opt out of his contract after the season, is paid more now, and will be paid more moving forward even if he'd re-sign with whatever team he'd be traded to. Jimmy is damn close to as valuable as it gets.

What are the chances you get a better-than-Jimmy player with the high draft picks you would acquire were you to trade him? Probably less than 50%. Let's say you have 3 picks, and each carries a 15% chance of becoming Butler-level. Jimmy is worth more than those picks. Now, I get that this calculus changes a bit if you say the Bulls can never win a championship if they keep Butler, so taking a chance on lotto picks, even if they are unlikely to be championship-level superstars, is still the thing to do. Sure. This, to me, though, is like taking $1,000 to the casino because you need $3,000 to pay the mortgage.

[GetBuLLish]

Lend me your time machine. I'll use it to pick stocks, not players, and I'll pay you $100 million per year for its usage. Deal?

Ok. Well the other route is to build around Butler with free agents. I can go ahead and list over 100 free agent signing that have been complete disasters. I can also point to the 20+ year history of the Bulls specifically being terrible at free agency.

So please show me the time machine that you'll be using to pick the right free agents to build a contender.

This is the same mistake you (and others) continually make: you point out the flaws of going down the path of, say, tanking, but you fail to recognize that you have not come up with some foolproof plan either.

60% of this board gave the Bulls front office an "A" or "B" grade this offseason. Were you one of them? Because this past offseason of building around Jimmy (using free agency) has already been a dud. Banana boat fantasies and all.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Not even close. He missed a couple of years with injuries and is on a minutes limit. He's strung together what? 30 games? Please, he's a great prospect but nowhere near the value of guys like Kat or AD or Greek Freak. That might change in a year. But certainly not the case of elite players or the young guys doing great.

Embiid is a monster already and what he's done in limited minutes is on par with any young talent in the NBA.

I don't think there's any issue with what he's done on the floor, just that his injury risk is so high that Embiid's trade value takes a significant hit and doesn't allow him to be in that top tier of trade value until teams can have some confidence in his health going forward.

The injury risk is scary but I wouldn't hesitate.

Betting on the injury risk for HOF potential? - All day Err day. Me personally? He's in that elite group.

[sco]

I hate this thread because I feel there may be some informational updates scattered amidst the banter. Can mods update title if there is anything new?

[Benedict Miller]

Embiid definitely has HOF potential, I can agree there and centers are slowly coming back to the league. I also believe Embiid has higher potential than nearly everyone in the league. Injury risk is scary though.

[JordansBulls]

Only guy I remember getting traded in there prime was a 25 year old Tmac from Orlando to Houston.

[Hangtime84]

Only guy I remember getting traded in there prime was a 25 year old Tmac from Orlando to Houston.

He had back issues

Harden would be a better example

[JordansBulls]

Only guy I remember getting traded in there prime was a 25 year old Tmac from Orlando to Houston.

He had back issues

Harden would be a better example

Harden wasn't a superstar at the time

[Betta Bulleavit]

Only guy I remember getting traded in there prime was a 25 year old Tmac from Orlando to Houston.

There was also Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Love and Vince Carter as well...

[Benedict Miller]

I forgot Harden was traded for a bag of chips

[AKfanatic]

The only way you trade Butler is if..

You put feelers out to free-agent targets (Hayward, Paul, etc) and don't at all like your odds on that path

And

You have a team like Boston willing to bend over and let you take from them what you wish. (Both Bk picks, brown, extras)


Even then, your odds of finding a player of Jimmy's caliber are extremely slim.

Of course if you look down the road and see a hazy image of building around Jimmy, you trade him. If Jimmy was still between 20-23 years old, no way you contemplate shipping him out barring a team offering someone like Durant. Jimmy has proven to have the work ethic and desire that you dream of your players having. He's also fairly new to the concept of being a top dog. The guy wasn't even highly recruited out of high school. The massive majority of stars grew up as stars and know what it is to be the big dog. Jimmy is figuring it out and he's figuring it out with a team considerably less experienced or skilled (players and coaches) than any team Rose led.

Trading him isn't the craziest thing to do from a management/team building department....it's also not something you do just for the sake of change.