2018 draft 3.0. #7, #22 - Merged

[sco]

So who else do folks like at 22 with Hutchison promise debunked?

I'm assuming guys like Diop, Musa, DiVincenzo and Walker are gone. Who else?

Okogie
Melton
Allen
Wagner
Smith
Brown
Simons

[bad knees]

When comparing players to a control group of normal healthy players. they got this. They deferred to a previous study because they didn't think their results were even worthwhile.. anyway the difference was basically a 13.9 average PER vs. 15 for non LHD patients. Slight, but different.



Essentially what they are saying is that they didn't even bother to evaluate their own findings on longevity because "confounding variables such as control group selection may have been biased".

and the wide variability in position demands and physical characteristics in basketball made selection of control subjects too challenging.

Again, I may be mistaken, but I understand that as them saying that these problems exist in the paper by Anakwenze et al, and are absent in theirs.

This is the first assessment of nonoperative treatment of LDH in the NBA as well as how it relates to player performance outcomes while assessing long-term performance and career longevity for both treatment modalities.

While they assessed the nonoperative treatment, they also assessed surgical treatment - and found it preferable.

They basically discounted the finding of the control study done against players without back problems.

What they are saying is that the study was really to determine the difference of surgically treated patients vs. non surgically treated patients against the same "normal" control group of non lumbar herniated healthy players. That they feel the results of the difference between treatment types are the only reliable data from the study. Not the difference between LHD patients and non LHD patients.

I mean, read the hypothesis and conclusion of the entire study...

Hypothesis:

NBA players with LDH will have different performance outcomes based on treatment type.

Conclusion:

NBA players have a high RTP rate regardless of type of treatment for LDH; however, postindex performance differs between surgically and nonoperatively managed patients when compared with players without an LDH. However, further studies with a larger sample size are required for more definitive recommendations.

To simplify it... the purpose of the study to determine the difference in treatment of the same problem not the difference in the problem and not having a problem.

Johnny, I started on your side, but I have now moved over to the other. My current reading is as follows. While the primary focus of the study was to compare differences in results between players who had surgery, and those who did not, the first step in getting to that comparison was to compare players in each group to similar players who did not have a back injury (or other similar serious injury), which the researchers referred to as the "the control group." Then the researchers compared performance of surgery players to the control group, with the performance of non-surgery players to the control group. So baked into the analysis is a discussion of how players who had the injury and chose surgery compared to the control group.

Here's a quote that describes the lengths to which the researchers went to get a good control group of healthy players:

The comparison group was assembled by matching players by position, height, weight, and BMI as well as preinjury/surgery performance statistics. This method provides the most robust and accurate information available regarding the control group for postinjury changes in player performance. For each player of the OT and NOT cohorts, 1:2 matching was performed between test and control players who returned to play and who did not have a season-ending injury or surgery during pre- and postinjury seasons. Players were matched based on data during preindex seasons, including all aforementioned player characteristics and performance variables, along with over 15 other player variables (see Appendix 1, available at http://sph.sagepub.com/content/by/supplemental-data).

And here's what they had to say about the performance of players like MPJ who were injured and had the surgery, as compared to the control group of healthy players:

Athletes treated operatively had played significantly fewer games (–8.64 ± 3.80 vs 1.54 ± 2.82, P = 0.038) during the first postindex season when compared with controls. A significant difference was not seen during postindex season 2 (P = 0.221) or postindex season 3 (P = 0.684) (Figure 2). Similarly, operatively treated LDH players had a decline in PER (–1.76 ± 0.85 vs 0.42 ± 0.64, P = 0.049) during the first postindex season compared with controls but no difference during postindex season 2 (P = 0.396) or 3 (P = 0.093) (Figure 3).

Survivorship analysis showed that operatively treated players who successfully returned to play did not have a decreased career length statistically when compared with controls (4.26 vs 5.68 seasons, P = 0.155).

So, I think there is some basis in this study for concluding that: (1) MPJ's back pain six months out from surgery is not unusual; and (2) he's likely to struggle in year one post surgery, but by year 2, he should catch back up to his pre-surgery abilities and his career should not be shortened as a result of his surgery.

This makes me feel a lot better about taking MPJ. Of course, the Bulls and their doctors will have to check him out and confirm that everything looks okay. But if it does, I don't think the injury should be a reason not to take him, especially given that the Bulls will be taking the long view. I'm changing my vote back to MPJ.

[Chi town]

MPJ is a very nice talent. The health concerns seem real though.

And further than that, I think he's a questionable fit with Lauri. I view them as rather redundant. I don't think MPJ the wing is all that great of a prospect. MPJ the big is much better.

And while a MPJ/Lauri combo at the 4/5 is undeniably interesting, it's not something I'd buy stock in.

Me too. Not enough defense unless you have 3 really good guard/wing defenders. Also don't think MPJ or Lauri will be able to create enough off the dribble.

[Chi town]

So who else do folks like at 22 with Hutchison promise debunked?

I'm assuming guys like Diop, Musa, DiVincenzo and Walker are gone. Who else?

Okogie
Melton
Allen
Wagner
Smith
Brown
Simons

I think GarPax board at 22 is...
Hutchison
Divechnezo
Okogie
Huerter

I think all 4 will be gone though.

[fleet]

So who else do folks like at 22 with Hutchison promise debunked?

I'm assuming guys like Diop, Musa, DiVincenzo and Walker are gone. Who else?

Okogie
Melton
Allen
Wagner
Smith
Brown
Simons

I havent kept up.
What is the debunk?

[fleet]

To simplify it... the purpose of the study to determine the difference in treatment of the same problem not the difference in the problem and not having a problem.

That's only the main outline of the study. Various other findings were pointed out along the way. Among those was that RTP surgical patients careers were only affected in performance in the first year post-OP. And also career length was no different than control group. So basically once the player returns to play, you can pretty much stop worrying after year 1. Year one post OP is the recovery year.

[bad knees]

Here's a great article that addresses how the NBA got to where it is today in terms of pace and space offenses, and versatile switching defenses developing as the response. As many on here have said, the pace and space offenses came about as a result of rules changes in the early/mid 2000's, and the impact of advanced statistics teaching us about which shots are efficient and which are not. The result has been a lot more 3's, and a lot fewer post-ups, thereby diminishing the importance of bigs.

But the pace and space teams did not start winning until the Warriors were able to match that great offense with a great defense - a switch-heavy defense that consisted of multiple similarly-sized players who could defend multiple positions. This further reduced the importance of bigs, as they became a liability on defense unless they could reasonably defend guards and wings in the perimeter.

The article suggests that the next phase will be to find tall players who can shoot and score from all three levels, and who are nimble enough to defend smaller players on the floor. Like Lauri and JJJ. Maybe Bamba. Whether WCJ gets into that category depends on whether he can lose some weight and add some quickness.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23529256/how-nba-got-groove-back

[robert76]

So who else do folks like at 22 with Hutchison promise debunked?

I'm assuming guys like Diop, Musa, DiVincenzo and Walker are gone. Who else?

Okogie
Melton
Allen
Wagner
Smith
Brown
Simons

I havent kept up.
What is the debunk?

Hutchison tweeting something like "Don't believe everything you read on the internet lol smh".

[fleet]

They were different though.. When comparing players to a control group of normal healthy players. they got this. They deferred to a previous study because they didn't think their results were even worthwhile.. anyway the difference was basically a 13.9 average PER vs. 15 for non LHD patients. Slight, but different

That is a misinterpretation of what they were talking about with those PER numbers. Those were comparing the random PER numbers in their study group, to league mean PER, pre index. They were simply trying to point out that their study group was fairly representative of the league in terms of player quality:

Selection bias toward more well-known players is also possible with the capture methods; however, the preindex PER (mean, 13.9 ± 3.8; range, 4.2-26.1) is similar to the league PER (mean, 15.0; range, 5.2-29.9 in the 2013-2014 season), suggesting a representative sample of the entire NBA player population

To simplify it... the purpose of the study to determine the difference in treatment of the same problem not the difference in the problem and not having a problem.

That's only the main outline of the study. Various other findings were pointed out along the way. Among those was that RTP surgical patients careers were only affected in performance in the first year post-OP. And also career length was no different than control group. So basically once the player returns to play, you can pretty much stop worrying about performance after year 1. Year one post OP is the recovery year.

[bigworld2017]

Chicago Bulls: Mo Bamba a “Freak” in the making?
by Khari Thompson4 days agoFollow @kdthompson5

Chicago Bulls Mo Bamba
All-Around Upside

A 7-footer that can actually put the ball on the floor and jump over/finish over just about everyone you put on the floor against him? Try to tell me that doesn’t interest you at all. You’d be lying.

Without comparing him to the “Greek Freak” as a player, just take a look at some of the measurables. Both are listed at 6-foot-11 with monstrous wingspans. In fact, Bamba’s albatross-like wingspan of 7-foot-10 makes Antetokounmpo look like a pigeon in comparison.

And while Antetokounmpo may be a better all-around athlete, some of that athletic versatility manifests itself in Bamba, too.

post snipped. I'm unsure on policy, but we usually refrain from posting full articles. Post a few relevant passages, then post the link. The link is important in all cases. Thanks ~ fleet

[islanders11040]

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

I honestly would not be surprised if he ends up being the best big from this draft

Sorry if you don't want a knicks fan in here. I just like talking about the draft with others. Check out this youtubers videos. The best since draft express left.

Watch on YouTube

The most slept on aspect of Carter's game.

[bad knees]

So who else do folks like at 22 with Hutchison promise debunked?

I'm assuming guys like Diop, Musa, DiVincenzo and Walker are gone. Who else?

Okogie
Melton
Allen
Wagner
Smith
Brown
Simons

I think GarPax board at 22 is...
Hutchison
Divechnezo
Okogie
Huerter

I think all 4 will be gone though.

I like Khyri Thomas and Jacob Evans as well. Lots of good prospects for the modern NBA in the 15-30 range.

[fleet]

So who else do folks like at 22 with Hutchison promise debunked?

I'm assuming guys like Diop, Musa, DiVincenzo and Walker are gone. Who else?

Okogie
Melton
Allen
Wagner
Smith
Brown
Simons

I havent kept up.
What is the debunk?

Hutchison tweeting something like "Don't believe everything you read on the internet lol smh".

Yeah I just saw it. Weird situation. He stops working out, yet seems to be denying a promise was made.

[Poohdini1]

Calling for fellow board members evaluation / constructive criticism:

Michael Porter Jr. middle-tier expectation is Keith Van Horn

Couple of qualifiers:
1) This is considering a decently healthy back that won't drop him out of the league in couple years time (but also considering potential any sort of back intervention could hamper his athleticism)
2) Compare outcome more with Van Horn 4 years in (he was lights out
3) Purpose of posting this is because I love hearing all the opinions "address" comparisons ... in doing so you guys pull out all sorts of nuance about both the player and the comparisons.

Why I pulled this out the hat:
I'm 29, and I remember watching Jordan's last title in the first 3-peat. Watched his baseball "career." Watched couple games live in the nosebleeds during second three-peat. Loved the "flare" and excitement of the Bulls (Rodman and Jordan would grip any kid to the TV ... for very different reasons). But hindsight I didn't really know/understand basketball. My respect of the game and evaluation really came from college basketball (I started submitting brackets to my Pops work pool when I was 6 or 7 and got really into college evaluations early on). (My earliest memory of none Bulls players were Vinsanity and KG)

My earliest memory of a college player I thought was the bees-kneez was Keith Van Horn at Utah. (Clearly remember picking them to win it all). I thought Van Horn would be a boss in NBA. In hindsight, he's got the same elements of his skillset that most feel confident about in Porter.
1) Van Horn a successful rebounder at PF because more agile than 2000s PF, and at SF because of size and length.
2) Excellent mechanics on his shot (like pure beauty at Utah). % took big dip first couple years and didn't shoot a big volume early on (in part I think because of general NBA philosophy/pace and also pigeoning him at PF in that NBA).
3) But he was a scoring machine down low, really soft hands.
4) His mechanics still made for a valuable and efficient mid-range game

Those are offensive traits I think Porter will be able to come in and immediately show off. I think he'll bumslay on the block and surprise many with how he uses his size over smaller guys, agility/simple post-moves around bigger guys, and a general very soft touch for efficiency. I have little question he'll be able to rebound at 6-7 rpg right away. In this NBA, we'll see a difference with the amount of 3s he takes for sure.

A bigger difference between those two (and opportunity for him to really elevate over Van Horn) his getting his own shot off. Van Horn shots from deep were basically 100% assisted. In the flow of the first unit, I think Porter could be awesome on catch-and-shoot (from Lauri in the post, a Lavine drive, or Dunn moving it around perimeter) ... but I also think with the second unit you'll see him pull up or off the dribble on his own with at least mediocre efficiency.

If his back is healthy, then he can continue to add some muscle and evolve his game in many more directions. So to me, Van Horn(ish) is what I hope would be a baseline.

Great post, I agree an athletic Van Horn is the floor for him (if healthy of course), and his ceiling can be KD-like without the unreal handle.

[Poohdini1]

I havent kept up.
What is the debunk?

Hutchison tweeting something like "Don't believe everything you read on the internet lol smh".

Yeah I just saw it. Weird situation. He stops working out, yet seems to be denying a promise was made.

Definitely odd. You'd think a 4 year guy projected in the late 1st would participate in everything to improve his draft position.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

So who else do folks like at 22 with Hutchison promise debunked?

I'm assuming guys like Diop, Musa, DiVincenzo and Walker are gone. Who else?

Okogie
Melton
Allen
Wagner
Smith
Brown
Simons

Huerter
Melton
Frazier

In that order. Though I could possibly be convinced to flip flop Melton and Frazier.

[R3AL1TY]

Whoah, Huerter's speed, ball handling, and range definitely make him a good candidate to join Splash Brothers Inc.

[Indomitable]

In fact, MDJ is the best comp I can think of for MPJ. Both about the same height, both with great shots, not great handles but decent for their size, both with very upright games (both Jr's with father as coaches). When MDJ was young he was quite athletic and quite a leaper even. Actually, quite similar players. Dunleavy is a better comp than Durant is. MDJ was a 3rd overall pick, highly hyped coming out of Duke. There was talk of him going 1st overall. Yao decided to come over and we took Jay Will with #2.

Boy I know you pissed off the board.

[RastaBull]

In fact, MDJ is the best comp I can think of for MPJ. Both about the same height, both with great shots, not great handles but decent for their size, both with very upright games (both Jr's with father as coaches). When MDJ was young he was quite athletic and quite a leaper even. Actually, quite similar players. Dunleavy is a better comp than Durant is. MDJ was a 3rd overall pick, highly hyped coming out of Duke. There was talk of him going 1st overall. Yao decided to come over and we took Jay Will with #2.

Boy I know you pissed off the board.

I'm a big Porter fan and supporter with our pick. I don't think it's a bad comp, if I'm being realistic. I would say it's closer to his floor, but that is an adequate and realistic comp nonetheless.

I just posted a mention of a Keith Van Horn comparison. I called it a "mid-tier expectation" (not really a floor, because Van Horn was a very good niche player at his position for a number of years before moving out of New Jersey).

I think with Porter, Dunleavy is a good floor comparison. Dunleavy throughout his career was pretty static, came in with a couple of the "NBA Ready" strengths Porter shares: shooting stroke, size/length, mid-level athleticism. But Dunleavy never really developed other elements of his game (I will say, he always grew his NBA IQ which continued to make him a valuable vet beyond jsut those strengths).

Van Horn is the next step up imo, because he shared those same strengths, but also had a post-game that was unique in his time. It was soft (not banging bodies kind of post game), but he took advantages of matchups really well and had a great soft touch around the hoop. I feel confident Porter will at the very least be a step up from Dunleavy because he also should excel with this offensive element.

Durant is a bad comparison because it's like a guarantee of massive amounts of development. All that development is certainly possible with Porter because of raw talents and pedigree, but it takes a lot of circumstance and guidance once in the league (I have no doubt he'll bring the personal commitment it would take though).

So yeah, Durant is a high high ceiling comp in the sense that if Porter develops to his best self he will more likely play a game modeled off Durant than he would LeBron, or Carmelo, or Kawhi. But that's the same as saying Ayton's comp is Robinson as opposed to Ardvydas Sabonis or Rudy Gobert. Anytime people compare to the all-time greats there's an immense amount of development improperly presumed.

If the floor is a good NBA player, then that's a good sign in my opinion. Any draft pick is going to rely on a good coaching and system development no matter the floor.

[Dominator83]

Dwight Howard at 2012, his production hasnt been quite the same since albeit not that bad either.

yeah but in fairness the league has drastically changed since 2012 making his style of play obsolete

Oh yeah, suddenly right after the same year when got the surgery....maybe he was the reason for the change?

Yea thats a silly observation. Theres a place for Prime Dwight in ANY version of this league. In fact, IIRC they were the 1st ones shooting a barrage of 3's when SVG had the philosophy of Dwight in the middle surrounded by 4 shooters