Around The NBA: 2019-20 RESTART

[jc23]

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[R3AL1TY]

Oh o, Kawhi is sealing the deal.

[Chi town]

I would say this game is more flukish for the Celtics. They have hit a crazy number of 3s at a high percentage. Heck even Marcus Smart has hit 5 of 9 from 3.

On top of that Toronto has shot its worst by far. I expect it to be a more realistic game for game 2

I do expect a long series, but this basically is Boston's game. Smart is getting those 3P looks as the 4th guy, with even Theis providing spacing. Of course he'll miss more as the series goes, but more or less, him and Brown aren't elite 3P shooters but they provide a lot with or without that ball, and the rest of the team shoots well.

The fluke is on Toronto's end (kind of). FVV shot 3-16, along with Pascal's terrible game. Pascal might be due to the difficult small-ball match-up, but FVV can definitely shoot the ball a lot better. He's a guy who gets hot and cold though; last year he only really came alive by the end of the ECFs. His first 2 series and a half were completely miserable. This regular season was his longest stretch of consistency. Funny how 1 year can entirely change our perception.

I think I take Boston in 6. Toronto's got more depth - Boston can't afford any more injuries to their starters. But if this Boston's starting-5 stays healthy, they have the basketball edge.

But I've been saying all year; getting Kemba and letting ole Horford walk on a max was in no way a step back for Boston. This is a star-studded team. They've got the best starting-5 in the East by a landslide, and that's even after Hayward's injury. 3 two-way all-stars and 2 strong role-players, and chemistry.

And the best coach in the league.

[Chi town]

Oh o, Kawhi is sealing the deal.

With jab step midrange jumpers.

Boylen is somewhere calling a timeout to get a step back 3.

[Chi town]

Boston is just such a deep team, even without Hayward. They have multiple guys who create for themselves and extremely good role players on both ends. I just love their roster construction.

For the Raptors, they really need to get more creative on offense. Siakam post ups are probably not winning you this series.

Yeah everyone was focusing on the Philly meltdown last series.

But the other side of that coin is that the Celtics looked like a great team. They don't have a super-star talent, but the roster is phenomenal aside from that.

Jason Tatum says hello.

[Kurt Heimlich]

Boston is just such a deep team, even without Hayward. They have multiple guys who create for themselves and extremely good role players on both ends. I just love their roster construction.

For the Raptors, they really need to get more creative on offense. Siakam post ups are probably not winning you this series.

Yeah everyone was focusing on the Philly meltdown last series.

But the other side of that coin is that the Celtics looked like a great team. They don't have a super-star talent, but the roster is phenomenal aside from that.

Jason Tatum says hello.

A fantastiic playoff could certainly elevate him, and obviously "superstar" is purely subjective, but IMO Tatum is not a "superstar" guy at the moment. Lebron, Kawhi, Luka, Giannis, Harden (Dame too arguably) are your superstars in these playoffs. AD, Buckets, Mitchell, Tatum, Joker(Murray) are your next tier guys who are big time players, but are just observably an impact tier below the aforementioned guys.

[DASMACKDOWN]

I think still its going to be a Bucks /LA team final as expected.

I dont think Jazz or Nuggets can beat the Clippers.
Houston is a different problem for Lakers but I think Lakers ultimately win in like 6 or less.

I dont think Miami is equipped to beat the Bucks given Jimmy isnt 100% with the shoulder injury and they don't have the size. They would have to shoot all worldly consistently to win.

And the Bucks have had their way with Boston the past few years. Toronto probably has the bodies to throw at Giannis but I would still give the Bucks the edge.

[dumbell78]

Marcus Morris you **** piece of **** mother ****! If NBA doesnt react to this, Im done!

Just saw the replay, NBA needs to sit his ass down next game.

[dice]

Oh o, Kawhi is sealing the deal.

With jab step midrange jumpers.

Boylen is somewhere calling a timeout to get a step back 3.

kawhi leonard points per shot, 2019-2020:

0.87 27-28 ft bombs
1.19 22-26 ft 3 pt attempts

0.75 20-22 ft - long 2 pt attempt (worst shot in basketball)
0.85 15-19 ft - the "midrange" jumpers
0.98 7-14 ft - short jumpers/floaters

kawhi would have to shoot a 3 w/ 28.3% confidence to outstrip the points generated on his mid-range shots. he accomplished that on his bomb attempts. i would imagine that his step back 3 would likewise clear that low bar requirement

[MGB8]

Oh o, Kawhi is sealing the deal.

With jab step midrange jumpers.

Boylen is somewhere calling a timeout to get a step back 3.

kawhi leonard points per shot, 2019-2020:

0.87 27-28 ft bombs
1.19 22-26 ft 3 pt attempts

0.75 20-22 ft - long 2 pt attempt (worst shot in basketball)
0.85 15-19 ft - the "midrange" jumpers
0.98 7-14 ft - short jumpers/floaters

kawhi would have to shoot a 3 w/ 28.3% confidence to outstrip the points generated on his mid-range shots. he accomplished that on his bomb attempts. i would imagine that his step back 3 would likewise clear that low bar requirement

That is simplistic. Averages are just that - they don't tell you much about your chances in any particular instance. That's the difference between taking a good shot and a bad one. An open midrange shot for Kawhi might be hit at 55, 60%, versus forcing a 3 against a defense aggressively defending the line.

While everything else being equal might suggest the 3, rarely is everything else equal. Meanwhile, over using the 3 ultimately will reduce pp3 and percentages, as defenses adjust to having less to worry about defending.

[PaKii94]

With jab step midrange jumpers.

Boylen is somewhere calling a timeout to get a step back 3.

kawhi leonard points per shot, 2019-2020:

0.87 27-28 ft bombs
1.19 22-26 ft 3 pt attempts

0.75 20-22 ft - long 2 pt attempt (worst shot in basketball)
0.85 15-19 ft - the "midrange" jumpers
0.98 7-14 ft - short jumpers/floaters

kawhi would have to shoot a 3 w/ 28.3% confidence to outstrip the points generated on his mid-range shots. he accomplished that on his bomb attempts. i would imagine that his step back 3 would likewise clear that low bar requirement

That is simplistic. Averages are just that - they don't tell you much about your chances in any particular instance. That's the difference between taking a good shot and a bad one. An open midrange shot for Kawhi might be hit at 55, 60%, versus forcing a 3 against a defense aggressively defending the line.

While everything else being equal might suggest the 3, rarely is everything else equal. Meanwhile, over using the 3 ultimately will reduce pp3 and percentages, as defenses adjust to having less to worry about defending.

I like to compare it to QB progressions. Obviously first read passes are optimal but sometimes the 2-3rd option are a better situation. If you knew it was going to be all first read or nothing (cough cough Mitch) then the defense can overload it.

Same thing with basketball. Sometimes you need the 4th option mid range shot just to keep the defense honest. But obviously 3s and rim is preferred

[dice]

With jab step midrange jumpers.

Boylen is somewhere calling a timeout to get a step back 3.

kawhi leonard points per shot, 2019-2020:

0.87 27-28 ft bombs
1.19 22-26 ft 3 pt attempts

0.75 20-22 ft - long 2 pt attempt (worst shot in basketball)
0.85 15-19 ft - the "midrange" jumpers
0.98 7-14 ft - short jumpers/floaters

kawhi would have to shoot a 3 w/ 28.3% confidence to outstrip the points generated on his mid-range shots. he accomplished that on his bomb attempts. i would imagine that his step back 3 would likewise clear that low bar requirement

That is simplistic. Averages are just that - they don't tell you much about your chances in any particular instance. That's the difference between taking a good shot and a bad one. An open midrange shot for Kawhi might be hit at 55, 60%, versus forcing a 3 against a defense aggressively defending the line.

While everything else being equal might suggest the 3, rarely is everything else equal. Meanwhile, over using the 3 ultimately will reduce pp3 and percentages, as defenses adjust to having less to worry about defending.

of course, but the difference is SO great, that the likelihood is that even a contested 3 pt shot is a better bet than a wide open mid-range shot. that is, if i'm kawhi and someone is running at me as i am in the process of rising up to shoot at the 3 pt line, i'm probably better off shooting under pressure than i am pump faking and stepping in for a wide open mid-ranger

this is not to say that someone should never take a mid-range shot, but i can't think of many situations where it's preferable

there is a whole lot of money at stake in the nba. the analytics go deep. i would bet that they even go so far as to look at stuff like:

"if kawhi leonard has missed his last 6 3-pt attempts and made his last 4 from mid-range, which is the preferable shot for him to take next?"

and i would wager that the answer would STILL be "the 3 pt shot." because while his expected % on his next 3 attempt is surely lower than average, and while his expected % on his next mid-range attempt is surely higher than average, his expected points per shot is still likely higher from behind the arc

[Chi town]

Oh o, Kawhi is sealing the deal.

With jab step midrange jumpers.

Boylen is somewhere calling a timeout to get a step back 3.

kawhi leonard points per shot, 2019-2020:

0.87 27-28 ft bombs
1.19 22-26 ft 3 pt attempts

0.75 20-22 ft - long 2 pt attempt (worst shot in basketball)
0.85 15-19 ft - the "midrange" jumpers
0.98 7-14 ft - short jumpers/floaters

kawhi would have to shoot a 3 w/ 28.3% confidence to outstrip the points generated on his mid-range shots. he accomplished that on his bomb attempts. i would imagine that his step back 3 would likewise clear that low bar requirement

Not going here right now. We both know midrange setsbutger things up and gets him in rhythm.

Wonder how these guys would do if the crosses half court and chucked bombs on every possession.

[dice]

kawhi leonard points per shot, 2019-2020:

0.87 27-28 ft bombs
1.19 22-26 ft 3 pt attempts

0.75 20-22 ft - long 2 pt attempt (worst shot in basketball)
0.85 15-19 ft - the "midrange" jumpers
0.98 7-14 ft - short jumpers/floaters

kawhi would have to shoot a 3 w/ 28.3% confidence to outstrip the points generated on his mid-range shots. he accomplished that on his bomb attempts. i would imagine that his step back 3 would likewise clear that low bar requirement

That is simplistic. Averages are just that - they don't tell you much about your chances in any particular instance. That's the difference between taking a good shot and a bad one. An open midrange shot for Kawhi might be hit at 55, 60%, versus forcing a 3 against a defense aggressively defending the line.

While everything else being equal might suggest the 3, rarely is everything else equal. Meanwhile, over using the 3 ultimately will reduce pp3 and percentages, as defenses adjust to having less to worry about defending.

I like to compare it to QB progressions. Obviously first read passes are optimal but sometimes the 2-3rd option are a better situation. If you knew it was going to be all first read or nothing (cough cough Mitch) then the defense can overload it.

Same thing with basketball. Sometimes you need the 4th option mid range shot just to keep the defense honest. But obviously 3s and rim is preferred

i think that's a pretty good way of looking at it. but kinda like this:

1st read: open 3 pointer (open jerry rice downfield)
2nd read: contested 3 pointer (tight single coverage on jerry rice downfield)
3rd read: find open man (dump off to running back for short gain)
4th read: open mid-range (allen robinson beginning to separate from defender over the middle)

while if you're a decent QB you're confident in your ability to hit allen robinson over the middle, there's little home run potential and it's not a super high percentage throw either

[dice]

With jab step midrange jumpers.

Boylen is somewhere calling a timeout to get a step back 3.

kawhi leonard points per shot, 2019-2020:

0.87 27-28 ft bombs
1.19 22-26 ft 3 pt attempts

0.75 20-22 ft - long 2 pt attempt (worst shot in basketball)
0.85 15-19 ft - the "midrange" jumpers
0.98 7-14 ft - short jumpers/floaters

kawhi would have to shoot a 3 w/ 28.3% confidence to outstrip the points generated on his mid-range shots. he accomplished that on his bomb attempts. i would imagine that his step back 3 would likewise clear that low bar requirement

Not going here right now. We both know midrange setsbutger things up and gets him in rhythm.

we don't know that. we don't know that at all. where's your research? how does shooting a shot that he only shoots at 40% develop a rhythm? how many of those bad shots does he have to take before he feels more comfortable shooting the 3 and is it worth it?

Wonder how these guys would do if the crosses half court and chucked bombs on every possession.

depends on the player. for some of them, better than settling for a mid-ranger. but the obvious point is that neither is a good first option. they're both "settle" shots. i'd bet that not too damn many of kawhi's mid-range shots are early in the shot clock

i love it when people advocate for the mid-range shot after a guy has a good game from there but are radio silent when he doesn't (the majority of games). it's like the grandmother who responds to her granddaughter's pleas to stop smoking with "it can't be that bad for me, i'm 92 and i've been smoking since i was 20." if you narrow your focus to a single game or a single life, you can make an argument for just about anything

[Dresden]

kawhi leonard points per shot, 2019-2020:

0.87 27-28 ft bombs
1.19 22-26 ft 3 pt attempts

0.75 20-22 ft - long 2 pt attempt (worst shot in basketball)
0.85 15-19 ft - the "midrange" jumpers
0.98 7-14 ft - short jumpers/floaters

kawhi would have to shoot a 3 w/ 28.3% confidence to outstrip the points generated on his mid-range shots. he accomplished that on his bomb attempts. i would imagine that his step back 3 would likewise clear that low bar requirement

Not going here right now. We both know midrange setsbutger things up and gets him in rhythm.

we don't know that. we don't know that at all. where's your research? how does shooting a shot that he only shoots at 40% develop a rhythm? how many of those bad shots does he have to take before he feels more comfortable shooting the 3 and is it worth it?

Wonder how these guys would do if the crosses half court and chucked bombs on every possession.

depends on the player. for some of them, better than settling for a mid-ranger. but the obvious point is that neither is a good first option. they're both "settle" shots. i'd bet that not too damn many of kawhi's mid-range shots are early in the shot clock

i love it when people advocate for the mid-range shot after a guy has a good game from there but are radio silent when he doesn't (the majority of games). it's like the grandmother who responds to her granddaughter's pleas to stop smoking with "it can't be that bad for me, i'm 92 and i've been smoking since i was 20." if you narrow your focus to a single game or a single life, you can make an argument for just about anything

Possibly you're right, but I can just imagine if analytics had been around in Jordan's day, and you told he couldn't take any more mid range jumpers and had to focus on 3's primarily. He was good enough he would have adjusted I imagine, but his whole scoring repetoire was built around fade aways, post ups, and other varieties of mid range shots. I would hate to have seen that taken away from him.

[Repeat 3-peat]

This Denver and Utah series is insane.

Jamal Murray can't be stopped, neither can Mitchell.

[Chi town]

This Denver and Utah series is insane.

Jamal Murray can't be stopped, neither can Mitchell.

Wish both teams were at full health.

Great series.

[PaKii94]

That is simplistic. Averages are just that - they don't tell you much about your chances in any particular instance. That's the difference between taking a good shot and a bad one. An open midrange shot for Kawhi might be hit at 55, 60%, versus forcing a 3 against a defense aggressively defending the line.

While everything else being equal might suggest the 3, rarely is everything else equal. Meanwhile, over using the 3 ultimately will reduce pp3 and percentages, as defenses adjust to having less to worry about defending.

I like to compare it to QB progressions. Obviously first read passes are optimal but sometimes the 2-3rd option are a better situation. If you knew it was going to be all first read or nothing (cough cough Mitch) then the defense can overload it.

Same thing with basketball. Sometimes you need the 4th option mid range shot just to keep the defense honest. But obviously 3s and rim is preferred

i think that's a pretty good way of looking at it. but kinda like this:

1st read: open 3 pointer (open jerry rice downfield)
2nd read: contested 3 pointer (tight single coverage on jerry rice downfield)
3rd read: find open man (dump off to running back for short gain)
4th read: open mid-range (allen robinson beginning to separate from defender over the middle)

while if you're a decent QB you're confident in your ability to hit allen robinson over the middle, there's little home run potential and it's not a super high percentage throw either

Yeah I mean mid range shots are much further down reads. That's why in my eyes they are "bail out shots" and why I get frustrated with Lavine's shot selection sometimes.

But it's hard to quantify the balance. Would you rather andre roberson try an open 3 or CP3 a semi contested mid range shot from his go to spot?

The open 3 is the preferred shot but I'd rather bet on cp3 if I had to choose a shot

[Repeat 3-peat]

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