Pick retention tracking thread

[Am2626]

I think you also have to factor in what has happened this season with COVID and all of the anomalies of this season. It is very hard to build team chemistry and continuity in a season like this especially mid season when half your team’s roster turns over. I look at a team like the Wizards and how bad they looked at the start of this year and how good they look now. They are 13-4 over the last 17 games and just got edged out by the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. That team has had 1 bad loss in those 17 games and could have easily gone 16-1 in that stretch. The Westbrook and Beal tandem is finally paying off. I don’t see why Zach and Vuc can have a similar one / two punch next year.

I wouldn't be surprised if these guys can muster 40ish wins together and be somewhere between play-in and 6th seed without moving up. However, without moving up, I think there's very little room to think the ceiling will be much more than that or that we will be able to build much past that in the future.

Granted, anything can happen, but it would take something heavily unlikely to happen to move past that IMO.

Improving the PG position this summer is going to be extremely important. This team also needs more guys like Theis that can mask some of Vuc and Zach’s defensive liabilities. Getting a top 4 pick also will go a long way. My point is there are plenty of opportunities to be excited about the possibilities for this team next year and I’m not putting much into their success this year from and win / loss perspective. Actually hope they lose out the remaining games and improve / maintain their draft position.

[dougthonus]

Improving the PG position this summer is going to be extremely important. This team also needs more guys like Theis that can mask some of Vuc and Zach’s defensive liabilities. Getting a top 4 pick also will go a long way. My point is there are plenty of opportunities to be excited about the possibilities for this team next year and I’m not putting much into their success this year from and win / loss perspective. Actually hope they lose out the remaining games and improve / maintain their draft position.

We're one of the worst teams in the league again this season. If we don't get our pick, we will likely not improve the talent significantly this off-season. The cost to bring in players with cap space will be heavy in players we lose. Vuc has a relatively short timeframe, and if the team is similar, there will be a significant threat that Zach walks in the summer next year or we will forced to trade him.

Yeah, you can be excited about what is going to happen next year if you choose to be, I love to be positive in life when possible. When I look at this team, I think they're set up where extraordinarily negative outcomes (Zach walking / team imploding) are more likely than even moderate positive outcomes (2nd round playoffs). The only thing that changes that is keeping our pick and drafting a star talent.

We probably won't win many games the rest of the way, our schedule is really hard, and we aren't really motivated, but if we lose out, we still might not improve our draft position from 7th seed in the lottery. The teams we'd need to pass are pretty far ahead of us. It's far more likely we slide back to 8th or 9th than it is we move up to 6th.

It's also super weird to be excited for draft position when at best, we have a 2/3rds chance of losing our pick all together, but I agree based on where we are now, I'd much rather finish in the 7th spot than 9th. Just an odd feeling.

[DuckIII]

My point is there are plenty of opportunities to be excited about the possibilities for this team next year and I’m not putting much into their success this year from and win / loss perspective.

Oh man, I don’t agree. The exact problem as I see it is that due to AK’s moves, we have the opposite of “plenty of opportunities.” We have very limited paths to meaningful improvement. And if we don’t luck out with the lottery balls, it’s almost zero beyond internal improvement.

AK has put this team in an incredibly difficult situation, and to get out of it is going to require multiple things - which already have a low probability chance of happening - to go exactly right.

[dougthonus]

Oh man, I don’t agree. The exact problem as I see it is that due to AK’s moves, we have the opposite of “plenty of opportunities.” We have very limited paths to meaningful improvement. And if we don’t luck out with the lottery balls, it’s almost zero beyond internal improvement.

AK has put this team in an incredibly difficult situation, and to get out of it is going to require multiple things - which already have a low probability chance of happening - to go exactly right.

Just curious if you have always thought this way or came to this conclusion over time. This was my initial reaction to the trade, but it didn't seem widely shared.

Interestingly, the most important of the unlikely dominoes (keeping our pick) moved from need a ton of luck to somewhat reasonable given our implosion and Zach's COVID absence.

[TheJordanRule]

Even as a supporter of the trade for Vuce, I'm all in on the tank at this point. Cade and Suggs are in the mix in the Top 4 range and I don't think a few meaningless wins that reduce our shot at a Top 4 are worth it now that the season is almost over. Stay off the floor Zach! You too Vuce! God, if we could land Cade, we would finally have a legit PG locked up. And if it's not Cade, then at least Suggs would be more helpful than Coby. Imagine if we could go out and grab a legit SF like DeRozan on top of Cade in free agency...

PG Cade
SG Zach / Coby
SF DeRozan / Brown
PF Theis / PWill
C Vuc /

That looks tasty, but here's a more realistic, still upgraded roster with the help of a lower Top 4 pick...

PG Suggs
SG Zach / Coby
SF Oubre or Talen Horton Tucker / Brown
PF Theis / PWill
C Vuc

[sco]

Oh man, I don’t agree. The exact problem as I see it is that due to AK’s moves, we have the opposite of “plenty of opportunities.” We have very limited paths to meaningful improvement. And if we don’t luck out with the lottery balls, it’s almost zero beyond internal improvement.

AK has put this team in an incredibly difficult situation, and to get out of it is going to require multiple things - which already have a low probability chance of happening - to go exactly right.

Just curious if you have always thought this way or came to this conclusion over time. This was my initial reaction to the trade, but it didn't seem widely shared.

Interestingly, the most important of the unlikely dominoes (keeping our pick) moved from need a ton of luck to somewhat reasonable given our implosion and Zach's COVID absence.

I look at the alternatives and feel a lot better about where we are. I just don't see that we'd have anything other than cap space, which next season is a commodity that wouldn't land us anything other than an older/worse player than Vuc. AK's biggest fail was not dumping Lauri for magic beans, but if we can get a TPE that we can turn into another rotation player, I'd be happy.

Our current "suckiness" is more about a lack of group playing time, with Zach and TBJ being out for a while and Temple not being around for a bit, than a pure statement of badness. I am a big believer in addition through subtraction with the Bulls. Carter and Hutch were/are bad. We are exaggerating our "badness" with Lauri, PWill and Coby seeing so much time right now. I think that PWill can be much better with an off-season to work on skills. Coby, unfortunately, will be back, but optimistically in a reduced (back-up SG) role. Lauri, will be gone.

I really like Zach, Theis, Vuc as starters. PWill may get better, if he doesn't, I like TBJ as our starting 3. Just getting a middling PG, especially one who plays actual defense would be a vast improvement over Coby/Sato. Landing Ball, albeit unlikely, would be a HUGE win.

Back on topic, if we somehow nab a top 4 pick, I'm not excited about that guy's ability to contribute in the near term, and would look to trade the pick for a guy like Grant.

[dougthonus]

Back on topic, if we somehow nab a top 4 pick, I'm not excited about that guy's ability to contribute in the near term, and would look to trade the pick for a guy like Grant.

Let's say you went all in on cap room, signed Lonzo, got the 4 pick and traded it for Grant, I don't think you'd have a team that would compete for a title, but you'd probably have a team that you can at least dream about a title with if everything worked out well (healthy / chemistry / role players stepping up).

Brooklyn and Milwaukee seem to have more star talent, and Philly's actually the best team in the East this year so far, so hard to see how you pass them either, but you'd line up your top talent against those squads and if Pat/Coby had incremental improvement, that's a team you could squint real hard and see how it comes together.

[DuckIII]

Oh man, I don’t agree. The exact problem as I see it is that due to AK’s moves, we have the opposite of “plenty of opportunities.” We have very limited paths to meaningful improvement. And if we don’t luck out with the lottery balls, it’s almost zero beyond internal improvement.

AK has put this team in an incredibly difficult situation, and to get out of it is going to require multiple things - which already have a low probability chance of happening - to go exactly right.

Just curious if you have always thought this way or came to this conclusion over time. This was my initial reaction to the trade, but it didn't seem widely shared.

Interestingly, the most important of the unlikely dominoes (keeping our pick) moved from need a ton of luck to somewhat reasonable given our implosion and Zach's COVID absence.

I didn’t come out of the gates breathing fire angry, but found it highly questionable because it failed to address our desperate need for a playmaker with limited assets in which to do so later. Specifically, I said we need to land Lonzo or this looks like a bad and restrictive deal.

I realize I have a higher opinion of Lonzo than many Bulls fans, but I still think landing him salvages some issues with this trade.

Regardless, that is a remote possibility. As is the even better outcome, which would be jumping into the top 4.

Summary: I was uncomfortable with this deal immediately because the logic of it was contingent on other uncontrollable, unrealized outcomes. I still feel that way today, but the concern is amplified.

P.S. In fairness, I do have a bias. My view of team building is more in line with Paxson’s anyway. Stay flexible and accumulate assets. Don’t make the “big move” unless it’s a pretty clear path. Many fans don’t have patience for the “flexibility” model and it even became a mocking meme around here with negative connotations. But I’m afraid those fans are about to get a 5 year taste of the downside of the other, long desired, approach. Be careful what you wish for.

[dougthonus]

P.S. In fairness, I do have a bias. My view of team building is more in line with Paxson’s anyway. Stay flexible and accumulate assets. Don’t make the “big move” unless it’s a pretty clear path. Many fans don’t have patience for the “flexibility” model and it even became a mocking meme around here with negative connotations. But I’m afraid those fans are about to get a 5 year taste of the downside of the other, long desires, approach. Be careful what you wish for.

Sam Presti probably most sums up my philosophy with GMing so far of all the GMs out there. I like the flexibility model, but I probably would have been a bit more extreme in maximizing my losses and flipping my short term assets if I were GarPax.

[Am2626]

Back on topic, if we somehow nab a top 4 pick, I'm not excited about that guy's ability to contribute in the near term, and would look to trade the pick for a guy like Grant.

Let's say you went all in on cap room, signed Lonzo, got the 4 pick and traded it for Grant, I don't think you'd have a team that would compete for a title, but you'd probably have a team that you can at least dream about a title with if everything worked out well (healthy / chemistry / role players stepping up).

Brooklyn and Milwaukee seem to have more star talent, and Philly's actually the best team in the East this year so far, so hard to see how you pass them either, but you'd line up your top talent against those squads and if Pat/Coby had incremental improvement, that's a team you could squint real hard and see how it comes together.

If the Bulls luck into the top 4 pick you absolutely do not trade it. By Grant are you referring to Jeremy Grant? That would be a big mistake. If Cade or Suggs are drafted I don’t see why they would try and get Lonzo. If it is Jalen Green, Kuminga, or Mobley then yes Lonzo makes sense. I also would love to get Conley Jr and could even see a situation where you would get him and still draft Cade or Suggs. Conley Jr. would be a great Mentor for either guy and could run the team for the next 2 years while Cade or Suggs develop into the future PG of this team.

[Red8911]

It would be nice to get into the top 4 and keep the pick but chances are they won’t get it. If they don’t it’s not the end of the world. After the trade drafting was clearly not part of AKs plan anyway therefore nothing really changes.

This team needed upgrades regardless even if they made the playoffs, so whatever AK wanted to do before he can still do during the off-season. My guess is the plan is free agency or more trades. Maybe it’s targeting Derozen/Ball or it’s going after players that can compliment Vucevic and Zach.

Then let’s not forget the development of Coby and P Will, both good young players but have been up and down all season. Both have the potential though to become very good players.Also have to add that our 2 stars Vucevic and Lavine will eventually learn how to play well together in time.Point is getting into the draft isn’t a do or die situation like many here seem to think. There’s options to get better and there’s plenty to look forward to.

[Red8911]

Back on topic, if we somehow nab a top 4 pick, I'm not excited about that guy's ability to contribute in the near term, and would look to trade the pick for a guy like Grant.

Let's say you went all in on cap room, signed Lonzo, got the 4 pick and traded it for Grant, I don't think you'd have a team that would compete for a title, but you'd probably have a team that you can at least dream about a title with if everything worked out well (healthy / chemistry / role players stepping up).

Brooklyn and Milwaukee seem to have more star talent, and Philly's actually the best team in the East this year so far, so hard to see how you pass them either, but you'd line up your top talent against those squads and if Pat/Coby had incremental improvement, that's a team you could squint real hard and see how it comes together.

If the Bulls luck into the top 4 pick you absolutely do not trade it. By Grant are you referring to Jeremy Grant? That would be a big mistake. If Cade or Suggs are drafted I don’t see why they would try and get Lonzo. If it is Jalen Green, Kuminga, or Mobley then yes Lonzo makes sense. I also would love to get Conley Jr and could even see a situation where you would get him and still draft Cade or Suggs. Conley Jr. would be a great Mentor for either guy and could run the team for the next 2 years while Cade or Suggs develop into the future PG of this team.

Conley would be good regardless of if they get the pick or not. He would fill in a much needed hole.Another guy who I think would be a perfect fit at PG would be Brogdon. I wonder if he would be available or what it would take to trade for him. Lauri would help if they wanted him in a sign and trade.

Brogdon plays solid defense,scores,and can control the team but also doesn’t need to be ball dominant which imo is important since both Zach/Vuc need the ball to create themselves.If I was AK that’s my #1 target.

[sco]

Let's say you went all in on cap room, signed Lonzo, got the 4 pick and traded it for Grant, I don't think you'd have a team that would compete for a title, but you'd probably have a team that you can at least dream about a title with if everything worked out well (healthy / chemistry / role players stepping up).

Brooklyn and Milwaukee seem to have more star talent, and Philly's actually the best team in the East this year so far, so hard to see how you pass them either, but you'd line up your top talent against those squads and if Pat/Coby had incremental improvement, that's a team you could squint real hard and see how it comes together.

If the Bulls luck into the top 4 pick you absolutely do not trade it. By Grant are you referring to Jeremy Grant? That would be a big mistake. If Cade or Suggs are drafted I don’t see why they would try and get Lonzo. If it is Jalen Green, Kuminga, or Mobley then yes Lonzo makes sense. I also would love to get Conley Jr and could even see a situation where you would get him and still draft Cade or Suggs. Conley Jr. would be a great Mentor for either guy and could run the team for the next 2 years while Cade or Suggs develop into the future PG of this team.

Conley would be good regardless of if they get the pick or not. He would fill in a much needed hole.Another guy who I think would be a perfect fit at PG would be Brogdon. I wonder if he would be available or what it would take to trade for him. Lauri would help if they wanted him in a sign and trade.

Brogdon plays solid defense,scores,and can control the team but also doesn’t need to be ball dominant which imo is important since both Zach/Vuc need the ball to create themselves.If I was AK that’s my #1 target.

Totally agree on Brogdon and Conley, but have zero expectations that either are gettable targets.

[HomoSapien]

I think you also have to factor in what has happened this season with COVID and all of the anomalies of this season. It is very hard to build team chemistry and continuity in a season like this especially mid season when half your team’s roster turns over. I look at a team like the Wizards and how bad they looked at the start of this year and how good they look now. They are 13-4 over the last 17 games and just got edged out by the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. That team has had 1 bad loss in those 17 games and could have easily gone 16-1 in that stretch. The Westbrook and Beal tandem is finally paying off. I don’t see why Zach and Vuc can have a similar one / two punch next year.

I wouldn't be surprised if these guys can muster 40ish wins together and be somewhere between play-in and 6th seed without moving up. However, without moving up, I think there's very little room to think the ceiling will be much more than that or that we will be able to build much past that in the future.

Granted, anything can happen, but it would take something heavily unlikely to happen to move past that IMO.

Improving the PG position this summer is going to be extremely important. This team also needs more guys like Theis that can mask some of Vuc and Zach’s defensive liabilities. Getting a top 4 pick also will go a long way. My point is there are plenty of opportunities to be excited about the possibilities for this team next year and I’m not putting much into their success this year from and win / loss perspective. Actually hope they lose out the remaining games and improve / maintain their draft position.

I highly suspect that TJ McConnell will be a guy we target early.

[Red8911]

If the Bulls luck into the top 4 pick you absolutely do not trade it. By Grant are you referring to Jeremy Grant? That would be a big mistake. If Cade or Suggs are drafted I don’t see why they would try and get Lonzo. If it is Jalen Green, Kuminga, or Mobley then yes Lonzo makes sense. I also would love to get Conley Jr and could even see a situation where you would get him and still draft Cade or Suggs. Conley Jr. would be a great Mentor for either guy and could run the team for the next 2 years while Cade or Suggs develop into the future PG of this team.

Conley would be good regardless of if they get the pick or not. He would fill in a much needed hole.Another guy who I think would be a perfect fit at PG would be Brogdon. I wonder if he would be available or what it would take to trade for him. Lauri would help if they wanted him in a sign and trade.

Brogdon plays solid defense,scores,and can control the team but also doesn’t need to be ball dominant which imo is important since both Zach/Vuc need the ball to create themselves.If I was AK that’s my #1 target.

Totally agree on Brogdon and Conley, but have zero expectations that either are gettable targets.

There were rumors during the deadline that the Pacers were looking to trade both Brogdon/Sabonis to possibly start over but who knows if that’s actually true. If it is bulls should be all over that.

Then Conley is a free agent so it’s always possible if they want him and are willing to overpay for him. All I know is AK will definitely be targeting to upgrade that PG position this off season.

[sco]

Conley would be good regardless of if they get the pick or not. He would fill in a much needed hole.Another guy who I think would be a perfect fit at PG would be Brogdon. I wonder if he would be available or what it would take to trade for him. Lauri would help if they wanted him in a sign and trade.

Brogdon plays solid defense,scores,and can control the team but also doesn’t need to be ball dominant which imo is important since both Zach/Vuc need the ball to create themselves.If I was AK that’s my #1 target.

Totally agree on Brogdon and Conley, but have zero expectations that either are gettable targets.

There were rumors during the deadline that the Pacers were looking to trade both Brogdon/Sabonis to possibly start over but who knows if that’s actually true. If it is bulls should be all over that.

Then Conley is a free agent so it’s always possible if they want him and are willing to overpay for him. All I know is AK will definitely be targeting to upgrade that PG position this off season.

That would be great if we could upgrade at PG...I just don't expect much of one, given the lack of available/affordable options.

[TheJordanRule]

Well, this last game really showed off the potential of our Zach - Vuce combo, but it's bittersweet given how it's crushing our odds. Coby had some good moments mixed in with the terrible, even alongside Zach and Lauri was money off the bench. I hate this team.

[Am2626]

Oh man, I don’t agree. The exact problem as I see it is that due to AK’s moves, we have the opposite of “plenty of opportunities.” We have very limited paths to meaningful improvement. And if we don’t luck out with the lottery balls, it’s almost zero beyond internal improvement.

AK has put this team in an incredibly difficult situation, and to get out of it is going to require multiple things - which already have a low probability chance of happening - to go exactly right.

Just curious if you have always thought this way or came to this conclusion over time. This was my initial reaction to the trade, but it didn't seem widely shared.

Interestingly, the most important of the unlikely dominoes (keeping our pick) moved from need a ton of luck to somewhat reasonable given our implosion and Zach's COVID absence.

I didn’t come out of the gates breathing fire angry, but found it highly questionable because it failed to address our desperate need for a playmaker with limited assets in which to do so later. Specifically, I said we need to land Lonzo or this looks like a bad and restrictive deal.

I realize I have a higher opinion of Lonzo than many Bulls fans, but I still think landing him salvages some issues with this trade.

Regardless, that is a remote possibility. As is the even better outcome, which would be jumping into the top 4.

Summary: I was uncomfortable with this deal immediately because the logic of it was contingent on other uncontrollable, unrealized outcomes. I still feel that way today, but the concern is amplified.

P.S. In fairness, I do have a bias. My view of team building is more in line with Paxson’s anyway. Stay flexible and accumulate assets. Don’t make the “big move” unless it’s a pretty clear path. Many fans don’t have patience for the “flexibility” model and it even became a mocking meme around here with negative connotations. But I’m afraid those fans are about to get a 5 year taste of the downside of the other, long desired, approach. Be careful what you wish for.

I have no problems with the approach of remaining flexible but for whatever reason the prior regime never used that flexibility. They just let it expire maybe because they overvalued their guys, were too risk adverse, etc. Something different needed to be done and with a guy like LaVine on your roster I think you have to try and work with what you have rather then blow this thing up again. I think the Bulls would have lost a lot of fans if they took that approach. GarPax were hated amongst most fans and if a new GM came in and continued the same course I don’t think he would have been able to have success. There just has been too much losing and disappointment in the last several years. If this doesn’t work out it’s not like it’s anything new as this organization has been a failure for quite a long time.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Two days ago I thought the 8th best odds was our floor.

But after the Boston win we’re just a game behind Sacramento and two games behind New Orleans (which just lost Zion for the season).

Granted they both have easier schedules than we do, but it’s not hard to see this going badly. Especially with LaVine popping up with fresh legs and some of the better teams we face shutting their guys down until the playoffs.

[Wingy]

Two days ago I thought the 8th best odds was our floor.

But after the Boston win we’re just a game behind Sacramento and two games behind New Orleans (which just lost Zion for the season).

Granted they both have easier schedules than we do, but it’s not hard to see this going badly. Especially with LaVine popping up with fresh legs and some of the better teams we face shutting their guys down until the playoffs.

Zion going down definitely hurts. Luckily the Kings have OKC twice, and should get Fox back soon. I read he was on the bench, so that bodes well for a near future return.

I thought we were locked into 8, but w/Zach showing little rust, and the team starting to gel, we’re losing percentage points fast. Hopefully the flatter odds do their thing regardless.