How overpaid is Derozan, and will it matter?

[dice]

DDR fits what the Bulls need soooooo well. Is he perfect? Absolutely not. He is a pretty good player though. This might be the first time in his life where he isn't the man on his team and its going to make him look much better.

As the season goes on, expect him to get more comfortable running the second unit and to see the ball movement improve.

the last two seasons leading a losing spurs team were arguably the first time he has been "the man" since high school

That's not even close to true. He had the highest usage rate in Toronto (sometimes by a lot) in 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015. He was 2nd to Rudy Gay in the few years before that. He has been the highest usage guy on his team for 7 straight years.

that just means that he shot the ball more than everybody else. lowry ran the show...and more importantly, was much better

[dougthonus]

the last two seasons leading a losing spurs team were arguably the first time he has been "the man" since high school

That's not even close to true. He had the highest usage rate in Toronto (sometimes by a lot) in 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015. He was 2nd to Rudy Gay in the few years before that. He has been the highest usage guy on his team for 7 straight years.

that just means that he shot the ball more than everybody else. lowry ran the show...and more importantly, was much better

Looking at the past three years Lowry and DeRozan played together. In their final year, Lowry clearly looked like a secondary guy to DeRozan, the two years prior to that Lowry looked like the 1A guy in a 1A/1B scenario.

That said, I'm just looking at numbers, I didn't sit and watch a whole ton of Raptors games.

[coldfish]

the last two seasons leading a losing spurs team were arguably the first time he has been "the man" since high school

That's not even close to true. He had the highest usage rate in Toronto (sometimes by a lot) in 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015. He was 2nd to Rudy Gay in the few years before that. He has been the highest usage guy on his team for 7 straight years.

that just means that he shot the ball more than everybody else. lowry ran the show...and more importantly, was much better

He shot the ball more than everyone else because he was the focus of the offense. He was the man in the offense, which was my point.

You are just torturing logic at this point just to put a negative spin on things.

[superdave]

Talking about WCJ's extension and others today made me think about DeRozan's contract.

I think almost everyone would agree that it's an overpay. He got the same amount of money as Lowry - which seems fair enough given Lowry's greater impact but greater age / health concerns. And it's also less than what Gordon Hayward has left on his deal....

But... it is also barely more than Jaylen Brown's extension... I think pretty much everyone would take Jaylen Brown. Or John Collins, for that matter, who is averaging 25M per year instead of 28. Gallinari is at 21M; the more impactful Jrue getting paid on a similar scale at a 33M/year average. Tim Hardaway and Evan Fournier are interesting comps in that they are a couple of years younger and not as productive - but signed for 18.5M and 19.5M average, respectively - similar to Joe Harris, and a bit under Aaron Gordon's 22M+ average.

I'm thinking a "fair" contract for DeRozan would have been more in line with Gordon's - about 6M/year less. But DeRozan is on a 3 year deal, Gordon on a 1+4.

So here's the big question - will overpaying DeRozan have any meaningful negative impact on the Bulls, given the cap situation (an over the cap team for the foreseeable future, but an under the lux tax team given expected cap increases)? If so, how much does he have to produce to negate that expected damage and make him a not-net-negative tradeable contract?

This is a lot of apples to oranges, but I'll take a bite . I've shared this elsewhere, but both of these players signed contracts or extensions this offseason...

Age 31 - Player A
21.6ppg / 4.2 reb / 6.9 ast / 49.5% FG / 88.0% on 7.2 FTA / (25.7% 3PT) / 122 ORtg per 100 / 59.1 TS%

Age 31 - Player B
21.5ppg / 6.9 reb / 7.1 ast / 49.7% FG / 86.3% on 8 FTA / (24.5% 3PT) / 127 ORtg per 100 / 60.7 TS%

Player A is the maligned Demar Derozan, at 27M AAV.

Player B is last alpha Jimmy Butler, with an extension for 46M AAV.

Butler is the superior player, no one would argue with that- mainly due to All NBA defense. Yet both of them profile basically the same offensively (Buckets had more talent around him last season). So this is my long way of saying NO, Derozan's contract is actually fair and in no way hampers the Bulls going forward. Derozan and Vuc are the 'bridge' older vets on this team, who serve to be competitive now.. but slot in as assets to land a larger fish if they become available. The Bulls will operate over the cap for the foreseeable future, so Demar's contract slots in quite nicely for us. You have to see this move in context with all others..

[MrSparkle]

I’m ready for DD’s good, bad and ugly. Like Pau and Wade.

Difference this time is we have a way better 1-14 than those other teams (16/17 bench in particular was absolutely awful - to put it in perspective, Felicio and Canaan became our x-factors).

Demar also genuinely seems to be a great passer. Gets himself in some traps and it looks like a pending TO but then he delivers cross-court to an open shooter.

Unlike Pau and Wade, everyone’s camaraderie seems really good (it wasn’t their fault, they came into some GarPax turmoil and locker-room splits). But Demar came from SAS with glowing praise from Dejounte and others, and it seems like this team loves him, so hopefully it’s not a 1-week honeymoon.

[dice]

That's not even close to true. He had the highest usage rate in Toronto (sometimes by a lot) in 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015. He was 2nd to Rudy Gay in the few years before that. He has been the highest usage guy on his team for 7 straight years.

that just means that he shot the ball more than everybody else. lowry ran the show...and more importantly, was much better

He shot the ball more than everyone else because he was the focus of the offense. He was the man in the offense, which was my point.

You are just torturing logic at this point just to put a negative spin on things.

you didn't say "the man in the offense." you said "the man." and even then, lowry was significantly better both offensively and defensively. per 36 in toronto:

54% 21/4
58% 18/7

saying that the first guy is "the man" is what's tortured logic. to say that derozan is unaccustomed to not being the man is just silly. even in san antonio he shared the load with aldridge at first. lowry was the heartbeat of that toronto team with the exception of the year kawhi was there. and the only reason derozan was the primary scorer in toronto is that they didn't have a real primary scorer. he had a single big-time scoring year...on modest efficiency

[coldfish]

that just means that he shot the ball more than everybody else. lowry ran the show...and more importantly, was much better

He shot the ball more than everyone else because he was the focus of the offense. He was the man in the offense, which was my point.

You are just torturing logic at this point just to put a negative spin on things.

you didn't say "the man in the offense." you said "the man." and even then, lowry was significantly better both offensively and defensively. per 36 in toronto:

54% 21/4
58% 18/7

saying that the first guy is "the man" is what's tortured logic. to say that derozan is unaccustomed to not being the man is just silly. even in san antonio he shared the load with aldridge at first. lowry was the heartbeat of that toronto team with the exception of the year kawhi was there. and the only reason derozan was the primary scorer in toronto is that they didn't have a real primary scorer. he had a single big-time scoring year...on modest efficiency

Again, you are just twisting and turning and straw manning to try to make it look like your original point wasn't completely wrong.

[dice]

He shot the ball more than everyone else because he was the focus of the offense. He was the man in the offense, which was my point.

You are just torturing logic at this point just to put a negative spin on things.

you didn't say "the man in the offense." you said "the man." and even then, lowry was significantly better both offensively and defensively. per 36 in toronto:

54% 21/4
58% 18/7

saying that the first guy is "the man" is what's tortured logic. to say that derozan is unaccustomed to not being the man is just silly. even in san antonio he shared the load with aldridge at first. lowry was the heartbeat of that toronto team with the exception of the year kawhi was there. and the only reason derozan was the primary scorer in toronto is that they didn't have a real primary scorer. he had a single big-time scoring year...on modest efficiency

Again, you are just twisting and turning and straw manning to try to make it look like your original point wasn't completely wrong.

i'm not twisting and turning at all. i've been very consistent in my argument: taking the most shots does not make someone "the man." it's really very straightforward and easy to understand. you're saying otherwise and trying to put it on me because you HAVE no legitimate argument

demar derozan was not "the man" in toronto. teams didn't play the raptors and think "what are we going to do to deal with demar derozan." they just gave him open shots and he often took them

joe dumars had a better argument to be "the man" in detroit when he was their leading scorer. and absolutely nobody would call him that. you're wrong

demar derozan will have absolutely no mental issue with playing second fiddle in chicago. because he was never really a first fiddle

[the ultimates]

Lowry was the heart and soul of the Raptors but offensively Derozan was the guy the offense was geared around. This is why personally I get pissed at how people use analytics, stats and numbers. In quoting or using the numbers they completely ignore the context how of the numbers came to be.

Case in point Derozan and Lowry per36 in Toronto. Lowry should be more efficient as the number two option. Lowry doesn't have the skillset to carry an offense like say, Lillard or Curry. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Derozan's efficiency increase because Lavine will have defenses geared to stop him and see the opposition's best perimeter defender.

This is why some of the discussion around Derozan is baffling. People make it seem like his game is going to fall off a cliff when on a night in night out basis he won't be asked to carry the offense or see that type of defensive attention.

[dice]

People make it seem like his game is going to fall off a cliff when on a night in night out basis he won't be asked to carry the offense or see that type of defensive attention.

absolutely nobody that i'm aware of has suggested that derozan's game will fall apart in a secondary role. that's his natural role. i would imagine that his numbers will be similar to what they were in san antonio

and he certainly didn't carry offenses in toronto. those offenses were typically balanced

[the ultimates]

People make it seem like his game is going to fall off a cliff when on a night in night out basis he won't be asked to carry the offense or see that type of defensive attention.

absolutely nobody that i'm aware of has suggested that derozan's game will fall apart in a secondary role. that's his natural role. i would imagine that his numbers will be similar to what they were in san antonio

and he certainly didn't carry offenses in toronto. those offenses were typically balanced

Then you need to go back and look at this thread and responses and how people were quoting numbers from sites like 538 about Derozan.

[dice]

People make it seem like his game is going to fall off a cliff when on a night in night out basis he won't be asked to carry the offense or see that type of defensive attention.

absolutely nobody that i'm aware of has suggested that derozan's game will fall apart in a secondary role. that's his natural role. i would imagine that his numbers will be similar to what they were in san antonio

and he certainly didn't carry offenses in toronto. those offenses were typically balanced

Then you need to go back and look at this thread and responses and how people were quoting numbers from sites like 538 about Derozan.

538 only dabbles in sports. and you certainly don't want to get into an advanced stats discussion involving derozan

derozan's a good player. fairly paid. i'm merely rejecting the notion that sliding into a distinctly secondary role might be an issue for him

[the ultimates]

People make it seem like his game is going to fall off a cliff when on a night in night out basis he won't be asked to carry the offense or see that type of defensive attention.

absolutely nobody that i'm aware of has suggested that derozan's game will fall apart in a secondary role. that's his natural role. i would imagine that his numbers will be similar to what they were in san antonio

and he certainly didn't carry offenses in toronto. those offenses were typically balanced

Balanced as far as what? Usage, scoring rate what numbers indicate that?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2018.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2017.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2016.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2015.html

A player being first or second on the team in scoring while getting over 20pts a game and usually being second on the team in assists qualifies for carrying the offense.

[the ultimates]

absolutely nobody that i'm aware of has suggested that derozan's game will fall apart in a secondary role. that's his natural role. i would imagine that his numbers will be similar to what they were in san antonio

and he certainly didn't carry offenses in toronto. those offenses were typically balanced

Then you need to go back and look at this thread and responses and how people were quoting numbers from sites like 538 about Derozan.

538 only dabbles in sports. and you certainly don't want to get into an advanced stats discussion involving derozan

derozan's a good player. fairly paid. i'm merely rejecting the notion that sliding into a distinctly secondary role might be an issue for him

Nate Silver became popular because of some of his basketball analytics and transitioned that to political analytics. 538 still does sports and basketball stuff.

The biggest problem with Derozan and analytics offensively has been his three-point shooting. So if you want to get into this discussion we can but I know how it's going to go. Who was really making this case that he couldn't adjust to being a number two?

[transplant]

As the kids say, smh.

The Bulls have assembled a roster that they (and I) believe can seriously compete for a playoff spot in a very tough EC. I'm sure that there are a handful of players who might have been available and are arguably better "values" than DeRozan. Maybe the Bulls tried to get one of those guys before settling on DeRozan. It also may be that DeRozan was the guy they wanted. Don't know, but DeRozan is a smart veteran who can score in lots of ways. He's not a role player...he's a serious offensive option.

Net, AK/ME were looking to put together a team that would be significantly better than what we've seen in the past 5+ seasons. They've done it and the addition of DeRozan is one of the ways they've done it.

[Butler4thewin]

Derozan is not overpayed we payed him enough to get him here he’s a great player and we are trying to build a title contender not a team of bargain contracts

[dice]

People make it seem like his game is going to fall off a cliff when on a night in night out basis he won't be asked to carry the offense or see that type of defensive attention.

absolutely nobody that i'm aware of has suggested that derozan's game will fall apart in a secondary role. that's his natural role. i would imagine that his numbers will be similar to what they were in san antonio

and he certainly didn't carry offenses in toronto. those offenses were typically balanced

Balanced as far as what? Usage, scoring rate what numbers indicate that?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2018.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2017.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2016.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2015.html

why did you only reference his last 4 seasons? the conversation was about how often derozan has been "the man" in his basketball lifetime. and i was referring to toronto's scoring. having several players in double figures qualifies as a balanced offense

A player being first or second on the team in scoring while getting over 20pts a game and usually being second on the team in assists qualifies for carrying the offense.

that's preposterous on its face

first of all, to CARRY an offense, you absolutely must be the top scorer by a wide margin AND be the best offensive player. kyle lowry was quite clearly the best offensive player on the raptors, and derozan was only the top scorer by a wide margin in a single season. and if you want to throw assists into the equation, that only makes the case better for lowry

kareem was the leading scorer on the lakers for the first seven seasons of magic johnson's career. he was a highly EFFICIENT scorer (which derozan was not). and yet, kareem did not carry the offense

joe dumars led the pistons in scoring for 4 consecutive years. he was 2nd in assists for many seasons. didn't carry the offense

even if you restrict the definition of being "the man" on a basketball team to the leading scorer, derozan has certainly not been in that position his whole life. since his single season in college, here are his team ranks in PPG:

3rd (college - a junior by the name of taj gibson edged him out)
6th (rookie)
2nd (bargnani)
2nd (bargs)
1st/2nd (rudy gay acquired by raps midseason)
1st
1st
1st
1st
2nd
1st
1st

[dice]

Derozan is not overpayed we payed him enough to get him here he’s a great player and we are trying to build a title contender not a team of bargain contracts

you cannot have a title contender without bargain contracts unless you're paying substantial luxury tax

legitimate superstars have bargain contracts because their salaries are artificially restricted. many players on rookie contracts are bargain contracts. beyond that bargain contracts are hard to come by unless you give up draft picks (with their high potential for value). enter vucevic...for this season and next. and lavine...for this season alone. which is why i have suggested that this season might very well be as good as it gets for this core of players

[BeatDaCavs420]

Can't believe this thread was already made....Shocked but not shocked at the same time lmao

[Butler4thewin]

Derozan is not overpayed we payed him enough to get him here he’s a great player and we are trying to build a title contender not a team of bargain contracts

you cannot have a title contender without bargain contracts unless you're paying substantial luxury tax

legitimate superstars have bargain contracts because their salaries are artificially restricted. many players on rookie contracts are bargain contracts. beyond that bargain contracts are hard to come by unless you give up draft picks (with their high potential for value). enter vucevic...for this season and next. and lavine...for this season alone. which is why i have suggested that this season might very well be as good as it gets for this core of players

Doesn’t matter the point is I said we arnt looking to build a team of bargain contracts it’s the truth we under bid him he doesn’t come here we end up a lot worse then now we did the right thing and cap flexibility is a thing good front offices are able to always do like when the heat did it and yes this team will be a good team we winning it a chip bro wake up