How long until the Bulls actually fully commit to a rebuild?

[Infinity2152]

We're literally talking about tanking an entire season, millions of dollars in revenue, over the prosect of getting the number one pick, lmao! Again, nobody is talking about tanking to get picks 2-5. Haven't seen a single Tank for Bailey or whoever we can get at 3, 4, or 5. You think that's not gambling? When most posts in here are talking about how much we should lose to slightly increase those odds?? How much would you bet in your normal life on ANYTHING with a 6.8% chance?

Or are we tanking so Dylan Harper can turn this franchise around? Any top 10 pick will do?

I have no idea what you're talking about. Yes, Cooper Flagg is by far the most wanted pick and therefore the person people joke about tanking for, but the pro-tank people would be perfectly thrilled to land pick #2. It's not a one-prospect draft.

You have no idea what I'm talking about. How about look through the last 1000 posts and see how many times Cooper Flagg is referenced as what we're shooting for. Then show me another name mentioned 1/100th times as much, outside of a best prospects thread. Sometimes we just have to be real, can't recall the last post I've seen talking about tanking that mentions any player other than Flagg. Then lets be real on the prospect of getting pick 2 either, which is also HIGHLY unlikely. Let's talk about much more likely options, where even if we're the 3rd or 4th worst team, we're much more likely to end up 4-8 than 1 or 2. Tell me how many sure-fire prospects you see in this draft, and we can calculate the odds from there.

We already destroyed the lottery odds drafting Rose with a 1.7% chance. Two teams were tied for best odds at number 1 pick last year, Detroit and Washington. One got number 2, one got number 5, the worst they could possibly get. Number 1 went to the Hawks with a 3% chance. For teams not in the bottom 4 of the league the odds are crazy low at getting a top 3 pick. Of course, anything is possible. Also possible no matter how bad Bulls plan to tank, other NBA teams have the same idea. Entire reason for the lottery, to make tanking far less useful.

This is the new NBA. 5-10 teams fighting to be the worst of the worst. The 7th worst record team's fans are mad because they're winning too much. Great time to go all in for a rookie, all three of our top vets (Ball, Lavine, Vuc) could be gone next year, Coach could be gone, GM may or mayy not be here. Sure the new rookie could learn a lot from Coby, Pat, Ayo, Matas, Giddey cause that's probably our core. Then we tank the next two years to keep the Spurs from getting our pick.

[MrSparkle]

I have no idea what you're talking about. Yes, Cooper Flagg is by far the most wanted pick and therefore the person people joke about tanking for, but the pro-tank people would be perfectly thrilled to land pick #2. It's not a one-prospect draft.

You have no idea what I'm talking about. How about look through the last 1000 posts and see how many times Cooper Flagg is referenced as what we're shooting for. Then show me another name mentioned 1/100th times as much, outside of a best prospects thread. Sometimes we just have to be real, can't recall the last post I've seen talking about tanking that mentions any player other than Flagg. Then lets be real on the prospect of getting pick 2 either, which is also HIGHLY unlikely. Let's talk about much more likely options, where even if we're the 3rd or 4th worst team, we're much more likely to end up 4-8 than 1 or 2. Tell me how many sure-fire prospects you see in this draft, and we can calculate the odds from there.

We already destroyed the lottery odds drafting Rose with a 1.7% chance. Two teams were tied for best odds at number 1 pick last year, Detroit and Washington. One got number 2, one got number 5, the worst they could possibly get. Number 1 went to the Hawks with a 3% chance. For teams not in the bottom 4 of the league the odds are crazy low at getting a top 3 pick. Of course, anything is possible. Also possible no matter how bad Bulls plan to tank, other NBA teams have the same idea. Entire reason for the lottery, to make tanking far less useful.

This is the new NBA. 5-10 teams fighting to be the worst of the worst. The 7th worst record team's fans are mad because they're winning too much. Great time to go all in for a rookie, all three of our top vets (Ball, Lavine, Vuc) could be gone next year, Coach could be gone, GM may or mayy not be here. Sure the new rookie could learn a lot from Coby, Pat, Ayo, Matas, Giddey cause that's probably our core. Then we tank the next two years to keep the Spurs from getting our pick.

Combined with the fact that that flirting with the play-in makes the Bulls give up the pick to SAS, there is exactly ZERO reason for the Bulls to compete for a playoff spot, unless some amazing player is stupidly handed to us before the deadline. Therefore, it makes 100% in the world to tank for a better shot at the top-4 in this draft, and AFAIC, any of the currently projected top-4 picks would immediately become our best-ceiling all-around prospect under 26yo.

We are 4 measly games ahead of the Sixers/Pelicans/Jazz. The difference for a top-4 pick between our current position and theirs, is 52% and 29%. I'd rather have 52% odds. I'd also like the added perk of 100% guaranteeing a top-7 pick, as opposed to facing some 10-50% odds of slipping to #11 to finish paying off our Chris Duarte services.

[drosestruts]

This time every year it seems like it's speculated that the upcoming draft has the potential to be great.

It’s very easy to prove this is not true, starting with even the most recent draft. I’ll just assume you don’t pay attention to such things closely, because this is very inaccurate.

It is interesting to read someone like Ricky O'Donnell's early mock draft a year before this year's draft - Ricky O'Donnell

There’s no franchise savior sitting at the top of the 2024 NBA Draft on par with Victor Wembanyama. Instead, next year’s draft class features a wide range of candidates who could conceivably emerge as the No. 1 overall pick.

He is the most decorated player of his high school class as a two-time gold medal winner with USA Basketball and a three-time state champion with Duncanville High (allegedly). He is also one of the youngest players in this class with a July 7, 2005 birthday.

Holland is a 6’8 forward who overwhelms opponents with an onslaught of size, strength, and athleticism, all while playing harder than everyone else at both ends of the floor. He has fantastic physical tools for a wing with prototypical height, long arms, and a strong 200-pound frame. He’s a monster athlete who explodes to the basket both in halfcourt settings and in the open floor. Aside from being really fast and a great leaper, Holland is also quick enough laterally to stick with guards and defend in space. He projects as a wing-stopper defensively while also providing rebounding and supplemental rim protection.

Pretty complimentary of Holland, lots of hype there.

Isaiah Collier, PG, USC: Masterful facilitator and pick-and-roll manipulator who can throw every pass in the book. Has a strong 6’3 frame and knows how to control the tempo and play with pace even if he doesn’t have top-end athleticism. The big hole in his game right now is his shooting. Teams will want to see how willing he is to shoot from deep with the Trojans, as well as gauging his shooting touch both from deep and from the foul line.

DJ Wagner, G, Kentucky: Talented all-around scoring guard who was considered the top player in the class from the start of his prep career as the son of Dajuan Wagner and grandson of Milt Wagner. Fearless driver with good touch around the basket who can get to the free throw line. He’s made improvement as a three-point shooter, but that’s still a question mark moving forward. At 6’3, he probably doesn’t have the size or shooting to get in the mix for No. 1, but his scoring punch will still be valuable.

Again plenty of hype for guys like Collier and Wagner a year before their draft.

[DuckIII]

We're literally talking about tanking an entire season, millions of dollars in revenue, over the prosect of getting the number one pick, lmao!

There are some posters who talk about Flagg, but I don't think this is even remotely accurate. Its either a really poor understanding of what people are posting about, or its a straw man intended to diminish the preference to keep our pick.

Apologies to members of the board if I'm wrong, but I don't think anyone here is uninformed enough to believe that angling for the draft is only designed to draft one specific player. I know, as someone who regularly posts about my preference to ensure we keep our pick, that I've never said that once and never will. Indeed, I'm not even committed to using the pick in the draft. I'm open to trading it as well.

Again, nobody is talking about tanking to get picks 2-5.

I'd do backflips over picks 2-5. One back flip and a cartwheel for a pick between 6-10.

Haven't seen a single Tank for Bailey or whoever we can get at 3, 4, or 5.

All tanking advocacy that does not say "but I only want to do it if we get Flagg!" (which is no one) inherently means tanking to ensure the top 10 pick, which covers a wide variety of prospects. And if you go to the draft prospect thread, you will see Bulls fans talking about quite a few draftees they want.

You think that's not gambling?

Definitely gambling.

When most posts in here are talking about how much we should lose to slightly increase those odds?? How much would you bet in your normal life on ANYTHING with a 6.8% chance? It's very easy to say the Bulls should do something with a 93% chance they won't get what they want when it's not your money. And I doubt the Bulls end the 7th worst team, they've been through the toughest part of their schedule already, which has been mentioned frequently.

As noted above, this either misunderstands the board or its a straw man. The plan is not to lose to get a 6.8% chance at one draft slot. It is to guarantee with 100% certainty a pick between 1-10.

The point was not to flex, the point is few people would bet their actual own money on such a low probability. I know the probability is extremely low, which is why I'm happy to take bets. I will bet my money on high probability outcomes.

If I could easily make decisions that would give me 100% certainty in effecting my plan I would absolutely do it. Who wouldn't? The issue is not whether its logical statistically. The question is just whether you agree with the plan. Which you don't. But your reasons for attacking the logic of the plan are all detached from what is actually being discussed.

[Infinity2152]

You have no idea what I'm talking about. How about look through the last 1000 posts and see how many times Cooper Flagg is referenced as what we're shooting for. Then show me another name mentioned 1/100th times as much, outside of a best prospects thread. Sometimes we just have to be real, can't recall the last post I've seen talking about tanking that mentions any player other than Flagg. Then lets be real on the prospect of getting pick 2 either, which is also HIGHLY unlikely. Let's talk about much more likely options, where even if we're the 3rd or 4th worst team, we're much more likely to end up 4-8 than 1 or 2. Tell me how many sure-fire prospects you see in this draft, and we can calculate the odds from there.

We already destroyed the lottery odds drafting Rose with a 1.7% chance. Two teams were tied for best odds at number 1 pick last year, Detroit and Washington. One got number 2, one got number 5, the worst they could possibly get. Number 1 went to the Hawks with a 3% chance. For teams not in the bottom 4 of the league the odds are crazy low at getting a top 3 pick. Of course, anything is possible. Also possible no matter how bad Bulls plan to tank, other NBA teams have the same idea. Entire reason for the lottery, to make tanking far less useful.

This is the new NBA. 5-10 teams fighting to be the worst of the worst. The 7th worst record team's fans are mad because they're winning too much. Great time to go all in for a rookie, all three of our top vets (Ball, Lavine, Vuc) could be gone next year, Coach could be gone, GM may or mayy not be here. Sure the new rookie could learn a lot from Coby, Pat, Ayo, Matas, Giddey cause that's probably our core. Then we tank the next two years to keep the Spurs from getting our pick.

Combined with the fact that that flirting with the play-in makes the Bulls give up the pick to SAS, there is exactly ZERO reason for the Bulls to compete for a playoff spot, unless some amazing player is stupidly handed to us before the deadline. Therefore, it makes 100% in the world to tank for a better shot at the top-4 in this draft, and AFAIC, any of the currently projected top-4 picks would immediately become our best-ceiling all-around prospect under 26yo.

We are 4 measly games ahead of the Sixers/Pelicans/Jazz. The difference for a top-4 pick between our current position and theirs, is 52% and 29%. I'd rather have 52% odds. I'd also like the added perk of 100% guaranteeing a top-7 pick, as opposed to facing some 10-50% odds of slipping to #11 to finish paying off our Chris Duarte services.

It's not a zero sum game. To me, it seems there's a very good chance we're worse next year than this year. Especially if we dont get our draft pick this year. Let's just grant that there are 5 quality players in this draft and 2-3 in the next. If your odds of getting top 3 in 2026 are the same as your odds of getting top 7 now, you still have a better chance of getting a quality player in the weaker draft. As in we get Nolan Traore this year, and give up Cameron boozer the next. Now add in the fact, that if we keep our pick this year, we're prevented from trading our next first until how long because of the Stepian rule? I do think this draft is strong, but I also see some prospects I really like in the next draft. I'd rather get the pick over with, and start operating like a real team.

Let's be real, Lavine, Vuc and Giddey are shooting career highs and we're losing. How much worse do you think we'll be next year if we don't get a top pick this year, and even if we do? Bottom 4, easy?

[DuckIII]

I have no idea what you're talking about. Yes, Cooper Flagg is by far the most wanted pick and therefore the person people joke about tanking for, but the pro-tank people would be perfectly thrilled to land pick #2. It's not a one-prospect draft.

We already even have posters doubting Flagg is actually the #1 prospect this year.

[Infinity2152]

I have no idea what you're talking about. Yes, Cooper Flagg is by far the most wanted pick and therefore the person people joke about tanking for, but the pro-tank people would be perfectly thrilled to land pick #2. It's not a one-prospect draft.

We already even have posters doubting Flagg is actually the #1 prospect this year.

Doubting that he's the number 1 pick or doubting he's the best player? Because he's extremely likely to be pick 1. And there may be a very few posts, nothings absolute. So let's say 98% of the posts are talking about tanking for Flagg. Again, I'm talking general discussion threads, not a thread on who's the top prospect. I do think a lot would be happy for a pick 4 or 5, however. This organization had a #4 pick not too long ago, pretty strong draft class. Anthony Edwards, Lamelo Ball, Okungwu, Obi Toppin, Tyrese Maxey, Tyrese Haliburton, Quickley, Desmond Bane, Devin Vassell. We got Patrick Williams.

Another question: how could we tank harder? Obviously by trading Zach and Vuc, but should we take much less in trade to do it immediately? They've clearly made them available around the league.

[Dez]

The Bulls are currently the 10th seed, which is in fact a play-in spot.

The Bulls have played 20 games which is in fact only a quarter of the season.

So 10th right now is meaningless.

They have also played the most difficult part of their schedule and are about to play out one of the easiest schedule in the league. So you are right. They should end up much higher than 10th

They lost to Utah, they can lose to anyone.

[DuckIII]

This time every year it seems like it's speculated that the upcoming draft has the potential to be great.

It’s very easy to prove this is not true, starting with even the most recent draft. I’ll just assume you don’t pay attention to such things closely, because this is very inaccurate.

It is interesting to read someone like Ricky O'Donnell's early mock draft a year before this year's draft - Ricky O'Donnell

There’s no franchise savior sitting at the top of the 2024 NBA Draft on par with Victor Wembanyama. Instead, next year’s draft class features a wide range of candidates who could conceivably emerge as the No. 1 overall pick.

He is the most decorated player of his high school class as a two-time gold medal winner with USA Basketball and a three-time state champion with Duncanville High (allegedly). He is also one of the youngest players in this class with a July 7, 2005 birthday.

Holland is a 6’8 forward who overwhelms opponents with an onslaught of size, strength, and athleticism, all while playing harder than everyone else at both ends of the floor. He has fantastic physical tools for a wing with prototypical height, long arms, and a strong 200-pound frame. He’s a monster athlete who explodes to the basket both in halfcourt settings and in the open floor. Aside from being really fast and a great leaper, Holland is also quick enough laterally to stick with guards and defend in space. He projects as a wing-stopper defensively while also providing rebounding and supplemental rim protection.

Pretty complimentary of Holland, lots of hype there.

Isaiah Collier, PG, USC: Masterful facilitator and pick-and-roll manipulator who can throw every pass in the book. Has a strong 6’3 frame and knows how to control the tempo and play with pace even if he doesn’t have top-end athleticism. The big hole in his game right now is his shooting. Teams will want to see how willing he is to shoot from deep with the Trojans, as well as gauging his shooting touch both from deep and from the foul line.

DJ Wagner, G, Kentucky: Talented all-around scoring guard who was considered the top player in the class from the start of his prep career as the son of Dajuan Wagner and grandson of Milt Wagner. Fearless driver with good touch around the basket who can get to the free throw line. He’s made improvement as a three-point shooter, but that’s still a question mark moving forward. At 6’3, he probably doesn’t have the size or shooting to get in the mix for No. 1, but his scoring punch will still be valuable.

Again plenty of hype for guys like Collier and Wagner a year before their draft.

None of that has anything to do with your false premise. Of course every draft has players who will be written about as having quality NBA attributes and upside. Because every NBA draft does have players with quality NBA attributes and upside. None of that has anything to do with whether all drafts are viewed as basically equally great every year.

I'm not going to waste my time debating this further because its like debating flat earth theory. Here's one article that took me 5 seconds to find that talks about at least three different drafts in the last 10 years being preemptively viewed as being weak. Including one - 2020 - which was expected to be weak but wasn't. Which is inherent in the nature of drafts. But the notion that every year every draft is hyped and looked upon which equally great anticipation is a complete load.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/2024-nba-draft-class-labeled-worst-history/423acf618ebba69ca2580967#:~:text=The%202024%20NBA%20Draft%20has,the%20top%20or%20anywhere%20throughout.

I could find 100 more.

[DuckIII]

I have no idea what you're talking about. Yes, Cooper Flagg is by far the most wanted pick and therefore the person people joke about tanking for, but the pro-tank people would be perfectly thrilled to land pick #2. It's not a one-prospect draft.

We already even have posters doubting Flagg is actually the #1 prospect this year.

Doubting that he's the number 1 pick or doubting he's the best player? Because he's extremely likely to be pick 1. And there may be a very few posts, nothings absolute.

Talking about whether he should be the #1 pick, not whether he will be.

So let's say 98% of the posts are talking about tanking for Flagg.

Lets not. Because that's not true nor is it relevant.

Again, I'm talking general discussion threads, not a thread on who's the top prospect. I do think a lot would be happy for a pick 4 or 5, however. This organization had a #4 pick not too long ago, pretty strong draft class. Anthony Edwards, Lamelo Ball, Okungwu, Obi Toppin, Tyrese Maxey, Tyrese Haliburton, Quickley, Desmond Bane, Devin Vassell. We got Patrick Williams.

Means nothing to me. Horrible GMs have made great picks tons of times. AK, tragically incompetent as he is, has made a couple of great picks. You gotta be in it to win it. Rebuilding is about odds, not certainty.

[Stratmaster]

The Bulls have played 20 games which is in fact only a quarter of the season.

So 10th right now is meaningless.

They have also played the most difficult part of their schedule and are about to play out one of the easiest schedule in the league. So you are right. They should end up much higher than 10th

They lost to Utah, they can lose to anyone.

Ok. So can anyone else. Not sure how that addresses the schedule.

[Infinity2152]

We already even have posters doubting Flagg is actually the #1 prospect this year.

Doubting that he's the number 1 pick or doubting he's the best player? Because he's extremely likely to be pick 1. And there may be a very few posts, nothings absolute.

Talking about whether he should be the #1 pick, not whether he will be.

So let's say 98% of the posts are talking about tanking for Flagg.

Lets not. Because that's not true nor is it relevant.

Again, I'm talking general discussion threads, not a thread on who's the top prospect. I do think a lot would be happy for a pick 4 or 5, however. This organization had a #4 pick not too long ago, pretty strong draft class. Anthony Edwards, Lamelo Ball, Okungwu, Obi Toppin, Tyrese Maxey, Tyrese Haliburton, Quickley, Desmond Bane, Devin Vassell. We got Patrick Williams.

Means nothing to me. Horrible GMs have made great picks tons of times. AK, tragically incompetent as he is, has made a couple of great picks. You gotta be in it to win it. Rebuilding is about odds, not certainty.

Sigh. It's relevant because the initial discussion you jumped in was specifically talking about that. I said most of the posts do, you say they don't, it's easy enough to prove, all you have to do is look. If you want to play word games about specific numbers fine, MOST of the posts. If you can show me 51% of the posts or more talking about tanking mentioning players other than Falgg, you win, ok? Otherwise, I stand by most of the posts talking about tanking are talking about Flagg. I later stated I believe many would be happy with a 4 or 5 pick, so don't even know why that's even an issue.

And again, it's not a zero sum game. Being in it to win it this summer means potentially not being in it to win it next summer. With probably much greater odds for a high pick than in a season where multiple players are shooting their career highs. If rebuilding is really about odds. The ODDS of a top 3 pick in 2026 with no Zach, Vuc, or our 2025 draftee, are MUCH higher than our current odds.

The other point was outside the top three picks, it's really a crapshoot to find a star. Don't really fault AK for passing on any of the others except Haliburton, but a lot are better than Willams. And again, what could the Bulls do more to tank? They've already put Lavine and Vuc on the block all season.

[DuckIII]

They have also played the most difficult part of their schedule and are about to play out one of the easiest schedule in the league. So you are right. They should end up much higher than 10th

They lost to Utah, they can lose to anyone.

Ok. So can anyone else. Not sure how that addresses the schedule.

Perhaps he's just saying he doesn't put much stock in strength of schedule after 20 games. Regardless, I agree with you that there is a very real chance we finish outside of the top 10. Absolutely no doubt about it.

[MrSparkle]

You have no idea what I'm talking about. How about look through the last 1000 posts and see how many times Cooper Flagg is referenced as what we're shooting for. Then show me another name mentioned 1/100th times as much, outside of a best prospects thread. Sometimes we just have to be real, can't recall the last post I've seen talking about tanking that mentions any player other than Flagg. Then lets be real on the prospect of getting pick 2 either, which is also HIGHLY unlikely. Let's talk about much more likely options, where even if we're the 3rd or 4th worst team, we're much more likely to end up 4-8 than 1 or 2. Tell me how many sure-fire prospects you see in this draft, and we can calculate the odds from there.

We already destroyed the lottery odds drafting Rose with a 1.7% chance. Two teams were tied for best odds at number 1 pick last year, Detroit and Washington. One got number 2, one got number 5, the worst they could possibly get. Number 1 went to the Hawks with a 3% chance. For teams not in the bottom 4 of the league the odds are crazy low at getting a top 3 pick. Of course, anything is possible. Also possible no matter how bad Bulls plan to tank, other NBA teams have the same idea. Entire reason for the lottery, to make tanking far less useful.

This is the new NBA. 5-10 teams fighting to be the worst of the worst. The 7th worst record team's fans are mad because they're winning too much. Great time to go all in for a rookie, all three of our top vets (Ball, Lavine, Vuc) could be gone next year, Coach could be gone, GM may or mayy not be here. Sure the new rookie could learn a lot from Coby, Pat, Ayo, Matas, Giddey cause that's probably our core. Then we tank the next two years to keep the Spurs from getting our pick.

Combined with the fact that that flirting with the play-in makes the Bulls give up the pick to SAS, there is exactly ZERO reason for the Bulls to compete for a playoff spot, unless some amazing player is stupidly handed to us before the deadline. Therefore, it makes 100% in the world to tank for a better shot at the top-4 in this draft, and AFAIC, any of the currently projected top-4 picks would immediately become our best-ceiling all-around prospect under 26yo.

We are 4 measly games ahead of the Sixers/Pelicans/Jazz. The difference for a top-4 pick between our current position and theirs, is 52% and 29%. I'd rather have 52% odds. I'd also like the added perk of 100% guaranteeing a top-7 pick, as opposed to facing some 10-50% odds of slipping to #11 to finish paying off our Chris Duarte services.

It's not a zero sum game. To me, it seems there's a very good chance we're worse next year than this year. Especially if we dont get our draft pick this year. Let's just grant that there are 5 quality players in this draft and 2-3 in the next. If your odds of getting top 3 in 2026 are the same as your odds of getting top 7 now, you still have a better chance of getting a quality player in the weaker draft. As in we get Nolan Traore this year, and give up Cameron boozer the next. Now add in the fact, that if we keep our pick this year, we're prevented from trading our next first until how long because of the Stepian rule? I do think this draft is strong, but I also see some prospects I really like in the next draft. I'd rather get the pick over with, and start operating like a real team.

Let's be real, Lavine, Vuc and Giddey are shooting career highs and we're losing. How much worse do you think we'll be next year if we don't get a top pick this year, and even if we do? Bottom 4, easy?

Why don’t we want both picks then?

I think we are almost definitely going to be worse next year. Simply, the rest of the league is positioned to be better. Utah, NOP, Philly aren’t planning on losing next season, even if they lose this year. Hornets, Raptors are also due for some kind of marginal improvement. They certainly have better #1 options than we do. The Wizards are the only team I can say with certainty are in the tank for a long time.

[DuckIII]

Sigh. It's relevant because the initial discussion you jumped in was specifically talking about that.

Only because you injected it into the discussion as a straw man. Its relevant to what you want to discuss, not what is actually being discussed.

I said most of the posts do, you say they don't, it's easy enough to prove, all you have to do is look. If you want to play word games about specific numbers fine, MOST of the posts. If you can show me 51% of the posts or more talking about tanking mentioning players other than Falgg, you win, ok?

To be very, very clear - again - there is no doubt that Bulls posters are talking about Flagg being a great prospect, how great it would be to get Flagg, lets "sag for Flagg" etc. No doubt, presumably, that his name appears more than any other name discussed as a draftee.

But that is not the same - not even remotely the same - as saying "we need to tank because we have to get Cooper Flagg and only Cooper Flagg." No one says that. No one. So all your likelihoods about getting Cooper Flagg specifically mean nothing in this conversation.

Otherwise, I stand by most of the posts talking about tanking are talking about Flagg. I later stated I believe many would be happy with a 4 or 5 pick, so don't even know why that's even an issue.

Well good. Then you don't ever have to make these arguments again.

The other point was outside the top three picks, it's really a crapshoot to find a star. Don't really fault AK for passing on any of the others except Haliburton, but a lot are better than Willams. And again, what could the Bulls do more to tank? They've already put Lavine and Vuc on the block all season.

Actually trading them and not holding out for deals that aren't coming. Ball too. And probably White. There's all kinds of things the Bulls can do to tank better.

[NZB2323]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/278235/Bulls-Expected-To-Make-Significant-Deal-Before-Trade-Deadline

Apparently the Bulls are trying to trade Lavine, Vooch, and/or Ball.

IMHO this is great news. Let’s keep our draft pick and possibly get Cooper Flagg! The issue is it’s harder to make trades with the new CBA, but hopefully we can make some deals.

[DuckIII]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/278235/Bulls-Expected-To-Make-Significant-Deal-Before-Trade-Deadline

Apparently the Bulls are trying to trade Lavine, Vooch, and/or Ball.

IMHO this is great news. Let’s keep our draft pick and possibly get Cooper Flagg!

I know you can't speak for everyone, but when you say this do you mean you only want to do it for Flagg? Let me ask it a different way:

If I told you today we could trade Lavine, Vuc and Ball for future assets, that as a result we would get worse and end up near the bottom of the league, but absolutely would not get the #1 pick in the draft with zero % to get Flagg, would you still want to trade them to rebuild and draft in the top 10 this summer?

[Infinity2152]

Combined with the fact that that flirting with the play-in makes the Bulls give up the pick to SAS, there is exactly ZERO reason for the Bulls to compete for a playoff spot, unless some amazing player is stupidly handed to us before the deadline. Therefore, it makes 100% in the world to tank for a better shot at the top-4 in this draft, and AFAIC, any of the currently projected top-4 picks would immediately become our best-ceiling all-around prospect under 26yo.

We are 4 measly games ahead of the Sixers/Pelicans/Jazz. The difference for a top-4 pick between our current position and theirs, is 52% and 29%. I'd rather have 52% odds. I'd also like the added perk of 100% guaranteeing a top-7 pick, as opposed to facing some 10-50% odds of slipping to #11 to finish paying off our Chris Duarte services.

It's not a zero sum game. To me, it seems there's a very good chance we're worse next year than this year. Especially if we dont get our draft pick this year. Let's just grant that there are 5 quality players in this draft and 2-3 in the next. If your odds of getting top 3 in 2026 are the same as your odds of getting top 7 now, you still have a better chance of getting a quality player in the weaker draft. As in we get Nolan Traore this year, and give up Cameron boozer the next. Now add in the fact, that if we keep our pick this year, we're prevented from trading our next first until how long because of the Stepian rule? I do think this draft is strong, but I also see some prospects I really like in the next draft. I'd rather get the pick over with, and start operating like a real team.

Let's be real, Lavine, Vuc and Giddey are shooting career highs and we're losing. How much worse do you think we'll be next year if we don't get a top pick this year, and even if we do? Bottom 4, easy?

Why don’t we want both picks then?

Would be great. Odds the Bulls will be a bottom 5-10 team two years in a row? Let's say we get one of those top 5 guys not named Flagg or Bailey. That guy is pretty good. I'm taking it for granted Vuc is gone either way this summer. We're re-signing Giddey, have little doubt of that. Zach, not so sure. Expecting Matas, Giddey, White, Williams to all be better, at least somewhat, natural progression. Personally, I think our odds of just keeping Zach skyrocket if we draft this summer. I'm actually changing my position, now that I seriously think about it. If we draft this year, we're almost certainly going to be equal or better next year and nearly guaranteed to lose that pick. If we don't draft this summer, we'll almost certainly be worse overall, team led by Coby, Giddey, Smith, Pat and Matas. Could have the worst starting lineup in the league.

I'm also a big fan of trading, so my opinion is somewhat skewed, lol. The inability to trade first round picks severely hampers our trade capability. Also trying to think how this top draft pick gets in, if it's Flagg or Bailey. In front of Matas and Pat Will? I'd be fine with that, but if we draft this summer, I think the rebuild is over. He better be that star, because prepare for the mass trade for vets to surround our young "core".

I'll admit a lot of this is personal opinion, and our positions wildly changes if Lavine is traded this season or before/during the draft. This org doesn't seem to want to tank anyway, and they'll take every chance to be relevant.

[drosestruts]

It’s very easy to prove this is not true, starting with even the most recent draft. I’ll just assume you don’t pay attention to such things closely, because this is very inaccurate.

It is interesting to read someone like Ricky O'Donnell's early mock draft a year before this year's draft - Ricky O'Donnell

There’s no franchise savior sitting at the top of the 2024 NBA Draft on par with Victor Wembanyama. Instead, next year’s draft class features a wide range of candidates who could conceivably emerge as the No. 1 overall pick.

He is the most decorated player of his high school class as a two-time gold medal winner with USA Basketball and a three-time state champion with Duncanville High (allegedly). He is also one of the youngest players in this class with a July 7, 2005 birthday.

Holland is a 6’8 forward who overwhelms opponents with an onslaught of size, strength, and athleticism, all while playing harder than everyone else at both ends of the floor. He has fantastic physical tools for a wing with prototypical height, long arms, and a strong 200-pound frame. He’s a monster athlete who explodes to the basket both in halfcourt settings and in the open floor. Aside from being really fast and a great leaper, Holland is also quick enough laterally to stick with guards and defend in space. He projects as a wing-stopper defensively while also providing rebounding and supplemental rim protection.

Pretty complimentary of Holland, lots of hype there.

Isaiah Collier, PG, USC: Masterful facilitator and pick-and-roll manipulator who can throw every pass in the book. Has a strong 6’3 frame and knows how to control the tempo and play with pace even if he doesn’t have top-end athleticism. The big hole in his game right now is his shooting. Teams will want to see how willing he is to shoot from deep with the Trojans, as well as gauging his shooting touch both from deep and from the foul line.

DJ Wagner, G, Kentucky: Talented all-around scoring guard who was considered the top player in the class from the start of his prep career as the son of Dajuan Wagner and grandson of Milt Wagner. Fearless driver with good touch around the basket who can get to the free throw line. He’s made improvement as a three-point shooter, but that’s still a question mark moving forward. At 6’3, he probably doesn’t have the size or shooting to get in the mix for No. 1, but his scoring punch will still be valuable.

Again plenty of hype for guys like Collier and Wagner a year before their draft.

None of that has anything to do with your false premise. Of course every draft has players who will be written about as having quality NBA attributes and upside. Because every NBA draft does have players with quality NBA attributes and upside. None of that has anything to do with whether all drafts are viewed as basically equally great every year.

I'm not going to waste my time debating this further because its like debating flat earth theory. Here's one article that took me 5 seconds to find that talks about at least three different drafts in the last 10 years being preemptively viewed as being weak. Including one - 2020 - which was expected to be weak but wasn't. Which is inherent in the nature of drafts. But the notion that every year every draft is hyped and looked upon which equally great anticipation is a complete load.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/2024-nba-draft-class-labeled-worst-history/423acf618ebba69ca2580967#:~:text=The%202024%20NBA%20Draft%20has,the%20top%20or%20anywhere%20throughout.

I could find 100 more.

I feel like we're not arguing the same thing.

The article you shared was published on June 26, 2024 - the day of the draft.

I'm saying it's pretty common a year before the draft for the draft class to be hyped.

That tune could change after we've seen a full season of guys like Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey, etc.

We're in the hype stage of the standard NBA Draft cycle.

It'd be bad business if every writer who covers the draft a year out was just like - actually this year sucks feel free to skip my articles this year.

How the conversations will continue to go about the 2025 draft class... we'll see

But I pretty much guarantee that this time next year articles are going to be out hyping up Boozer's kid and whomever else is in the draft.

[DuckIII]

I feel like we're not arguing the same thing.

The article you shared was published on June 26, 2024 - the day of the draft.

I'm saying it's pretty common a year before the draft for the draft class to be hyped.

But we aren't a year away. We're actually about 20% into the college basketball season. And regardless, I can find articles further in advance of the draft - including the day after one draft, looking ahead to the next one - that will glorify some drafts and poopoo others.

You can think what you want. I'm a draft junkie. The amount of time I have spent since the breakup of the dynasty reading about drafts (even when the Bulls are really good and the draft is less significant) and the players in them would be embarrassing to me if calculated. I know I'm right based on experience. You don't have to agree, but I'm not going to spend more time on convincing you the world is not flat.

But I pretty much guarantee that this time next year articles are going to be out hyping up Boozer's kid and whomever else is in the draft.

Could be. Could be one of the well respected drafts, and if so, yes it will be talked about positively.