Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[dougthonus]

Funny because this IS the rebuild. In less than a year we went from a core of Vuc, Zach, Derozan and Caruso to Giddey, Coby, Matas. People might not like how we did it, or the outcome, but we certainly just rebuilt the team into a very different, much younger core. We also rebuilt the team when AK first took over.

This is what I would call a retool. We repainted and put in new cabinets and countertops, but we still have a 1000 square foot house with cracks in the foundation.

[dougthonus]

I took his comment to mean tanking, but you are right.

I don't necessarily mean tanking, but I would have aimed for a draft oriented strategy and acquire many draft picks. There is a good chance that would result in a very high draft pick of our own. It's a bit dicey now, because a year ago when the 2025 and 2026 draft classes both looked stacked felt like a great time to start such an approach. I'm not sure what the 2027 class looks like, so maybe still a good window or maybe not. I also think we'll get less future picks now than we could have a year ago too.

[DASMACKDOWN]

That's the most you'd offer or the most you'd match?

It's sort of hard to say, because on the one hand, I just would have done everything so different from this org and would have such different goals that it's hard for me to put my mind in the same spot as them. I think based on our current FO's plans of never ever under any circumstances rebuilding, that I would probably go 30M on Giddey.

Yeah I'm talking if you got AK's job right now, what would you offer, and what would you match.

I'd offer him 5 years starting at 20 mil a year with max raises. If he entered FA, and got an offer sheet from Brooklyn, I'd probably match up to like 32 mil/year (and hold my nose while I did it). Outside of that, I'd make him go seek a sign and trade, and I'd maybe go up to 25-28 mil/year at the last second if he looked like he was going to take the QO.

I don't think we should let him even consider a QO because then I think we will be screwed.

I think we should be smart, but not low ball. There should definitely best offer and leave it at that. But next year Giddey will have the market on his side as there will be plenty of suitors with cash.

I think people are under-estimating the numbers here. If Giddey were to average the whole season what he did post allstar break, not only would he be an all-star but potentially all NBA worthy.

We did this with Jimmy where it was like a 3 million dollar difference and he bet on himself with a QO.
Bulls offered 4/40 and he wanted 4/52. After the season he ended up getting 5/95 deal. So us griping over 3 mil more per year, he ended up getting 6 mil more per year that he requested. So we took a major L on that Jimmy deal.

Now mind you that was GarPax and they played more hardball. I don't think AK has ever played hardball since being here.

So I think we are more likely to give Giddey 35 mil than for him to play hardball on a 25mil contract.

[League Circles]

Funny because this IS the rebuild. In less than a year we went from a core of Vuc, Zach, Derozan and Caruso to Giddey, Coby, Matas. People might not like how we did it, or the outcome, but we certainly just rebuilt the team into a very different, much younger core. We also rebuilt the team when AK first took over.

This is what I would call a retool. We repainted and put in new cabinets and countertops, but we still have a 1000 square foot house with cracks in the foundation.

Fair enough, but IMO nobody uses that term to refer to what we've done. Re-tool is when you keep most of a core and tweak some of the more minor pieces. We've just rebuilt our core entirely with 3 young players, and also traded our best player for a lottery pick. Again, I know it's not specifically the method or results you wanted, but it's certainly a rebuild.

[dougthonus]

I don't think we should let him even consider a QO because then I think we will be screwed.

I think we should be smart, but not low ball. There should definitely best offer and leave it at that. But next year Giddey will have the market on his side as there will be plenty of suitors with cash.

I think people are under-estimating the numbers here. If Giddey were to average the whole season what he did post allstar break, not only would he be an all-star but potentially all NBA worthy.

We did this with Jimmy where it was like a 3 million dollar difference and he bet on himself with a QO.
Bulls offered 4/40 and he wanted 4/52. After the season he ended up getting 5/95 deal. So us griping over 3 mil more per year, he ended up getting 6 mil more per year that he requested. So we took a major L on that Jimmy deal.

Now mind you that was GarPax and they played more hardball. I don't think AK has ever played hardball since being here.

So I think we are more likely to give Giddey 35 mil than for him to play hardball on a 25mil contract.

Your underlying assumption is that Giddey becomes a max player like Jimmy Butler. If that happens, yes, we should pay him. I don't think that's going to happen myself because I don't think Giddey is anywhere near that good nor will become that good. That said, that's the evaluation the FO needs to make is how good he becomes. If you believe it, that totally makes sense of course.

[League Circles]

It's sort of hard to say, because on the one hand, I just would have done everything so different from this org and would have such different goals that it's hard for me to put my mind in the same spot as them. I think based on our current FO's plans of never ever under any circumstances rebuilding, that I would probably go 30M on Giddey.

Yeah I'm talking if you got AK's job right now, what would you offer, and what would you match.

I'd offer him 5 years starting at 20 mil a year with max raises. If he entered FA, and got an offer sheet from Brooklyn, I'd probably match up to like 32 mil/year (and hold my nose while I did it). Outside of that, I'd make him go seek a sign and trade, and I'd maybe go up to 25-28 mil/year at the last second if he looked like he was going to take the QO.

I don't think we should let him even consider a QO because then I think we will be screwed.

I think we should be smart, but not low ball. There should definitely best offer and leave it at that. But next year Giddey will have the market on his side as there will be plenty of suitors with cash.

I think people are under-estimating the numbers here. If Giddey were to average the whole season what he did post allstar break, not only would he be an all-star but potentially all NBA worthy.

We did this with Jimmy where it was like a 3 million dollar difference and he bet on himself with a QO.
Bulls offered 4/40 and he wanted 4/52. After the season he ended up getting 5/95 deal. So us griping over 3 mil more per year, he ended up getting 6 mil more per year that he requested. So we took a major L on that Jimmy deal.

Now mind you that was GarPax and they played more hardball. I don't think AK has ever played hardball since being here.

So I think we are more likely to give Giddey 35 mil than for him to play hardball on a 25mil contract.

It's possible for Giddey to be all-NBA and still prevent us from ever being a true contender. Individual (regular season) stats just aren't a great indicator IMO of a player's ability to win when it counts. For example, take peak Harden or Westbrook. They out up the stats we hope Giddey can, but could you ever truly win at a high level with those guys running the show? And Giddey is a lesser physical prospect which is a big deal on D.

IMO we didn't lose on the Jimmy deal, because he was still worth what we had to pay him, and he was coming off a poor shooting year at the time so I understand why we waited.

[drosestruts]

Funny because this IS the rebuild. In less than a year we went from a core of Vuc, Zach, Derozan and Caruso to Giddey, Coby, Matas. People might not like how we did it, or the outcome, but we certainly just rebuilt the team into a very different, much younger core. We also rebuilt the team when AK first took over.

This is what I would call a retool. We repainted and put in new cabinets and countertops, but we still have a 1000 square foot house with cracks in the foundation.

Fair enough, but IMO nobody uses that term to refer to what we've done. Re-tool is when you keep most of a core and tweak some of the more minor pieces. We've just rebuilt our core entirely with 3 young players, and also traded our best player for a lottery pick. Again, I know it's not specifically the method or results you wanted, but it's certainly a rebuild.

On the hair-splitting semantics argument here I would agree, we just completed a quick rebuild and we might not be done yet (I've always viewed AK as a "where there's smoke there's fire" type guy and could see us making a move for Kuminga this offseason).

Our core has already revamped quickly to Giddey-Matas-Coby, we could see even further changes this offseason potentially to Giddey-Matas-Kuminga-2025 pick

[Jcool0]

Yeah I'm talking if you got AK's job right now, what would you offer, and what would you match.

I'd offer him 5 years starting at 20 mil a year with max raises. If he entered FA, and got an offer sheet from Brooklyn, I'd probably match up to like 32 mil/year (and hold my nose while I did it). Outside of that, I'd make him go seek a sign and trade, and I'd maybe go up to 25-28 mil/year at the last second if he looked like he was going to take the QO.

I don't think we should let him even consider a QO because then I think we will be screwed.

I think we should be smart, but not low ball. There should definitely best offer and leave it at that. But next year Giddey will have the market on his side as there will be plenty of suitors with cash.

I think people are under-estimating the numbers here. If Giddey were to average the whole season what he did post allstar break, not only would he be an all-star but potentially all NBA worthy.

We did this with Jimmy where it was like a 3 million dollar difference and he bet on himself with a QO.
Bulls offered 4/40 and he wanted 4/52. After the season he ended up getting 5/95 deal. So us griping over 3 mil more per year, he ended up getting 6 mil more per year that he requested. So we took a major L on that Jimmy deal.

Now mind you that was GarPax and they played more hardball. I don't think AK has ever played hardball since being here.

So I think we are more likely to give Giddey 35 mil than for him to play hardball on a 25mil contract.

It's possible for Giddey to be all-NBA and still prevent us from ever being a true contender. Individual (regular season) stats just aren't a great indicator IMO of a player's ability to win when it counts. For example, take peak Harden or Westbrook. They out up the stats we hope Giddey can, but could you ever truly win at a high level with those guys running the show? And Giddey is a lesser physical prospect which is a big deal on D.

IMO we didn't lose on the Jimmy deal, because he was still worth what we had to pay him, and he was coming off a poor shooting year at the time so I understand why we waited.

James Harden:

Lost 4-1 to a 67 win GS in the WCF with Curry averaging 31 ppg on 51/49/80 & Green 14/12/6. Harden has 28 ppg on 49/43/86 (no one averages more then 14 ppg for Houston). GS wins title 4-2 over Cleveland.

Lost 4-3 in the WCF to GS team with KD, Steph and Klay averaging 19+ ppg in that series Harden was 28/6/6 and only lost that series because Chris Paul got hurt in game 6. GS sweeps Cleveland to win title

His two best years he lost to one of the bets title runs in history. I don't think you can say he couldn't of won it all because of his style.

[MrSparkle]

Ok- instead of talking about whether Giddey can win a ring, let’s focus on whether he can make the 2nd round. There’s no team ever that went from lottery to contender. You pay dues as a tough 1st/2nd-round opponent. Barre some anomaly cake-walk, making round 2 in itself is the mark of a strong team. Literally means you are top-8. Only reason I’d bust up such a team is if your stars are way over-the-hill. Most contenders got there and then made their tweaks/big additions.

I think Josh might be able to. Obviously not as the primary scoring option, but as the primary ballhandler and 2nd scorer. Cause of all the questions about his ceiling, Coby’s inconsistency, Pat’s salary, Matas being a ways away… it makes sense to tank. They need to strip the vets off the team, try to get assets. Of course AK will not do this.

I have no problem with Josh, even paying him. But locking in this roster is a bad idea. Besides AK trying to trade Vuc again, unfortunately I don’t see a patient building approach.

[sco]

Ok- instead of talking about whether Giddey can win a ring, let’s focus on whether he can make the 2nd round. There’s no team ever that went from lottery to contender. You pay dues as a tough 1st/2nd-round opponent. Barre some anomaly cake-walk, making round 2 in itself is the mark of a strong team. Literally means you are top-8. Only reason I’d bust up such a team is if your stars are way over-the-hill. Most contenders got there and then made their tweaks/big additions.

I think Josh might be able to. Obviously not as the primary scoring option, but as the primary ballhandler and 2nd scorer. Cause of all the questions about his ceiling, Coby’s inconsistency, Pat’s salary, Matas being a ways away… it makes sense to tank. They need to strip the vets off the team, try to get assets. Of course AK will not do this.

I have no problem with Josh, even paying him. But locking in this roster is a bad idea. Besides AK trying to trade Vuc again, unfortunately I don’t see a patient building approach.

I'm with you. It is very hard to answer the question as to whether Giddey is "the right guy" for this team without knowing AT LEAST who our #1 option is going to be. That's why I have been in the pro-tank camp (along with many here) that many here have been in because until you have your #1 option, you're just treading water until then. Without knowing that piece of information, the Giddey question isn't meaningful. It's like going back to the pre-Jordan Bulls and debating whether they should extend Orlando Woolridge.

[Red Larrivee]

It's possible for Giddey to be all-NBA and still prevent us from ever being a true contender. Individual (regular season) stats just aren't a great indicator IMO of a player's ability to win when it counts. For example, take peak Harden or Westbrook. They out up the stats we hope Giddey can, but could you ever truly win at a high level with those guys running the show? And Giddey is a lesser physical prospect which is a big deal on D.

IMO we didn't lose on the Jimmy deal, because he was still worth what we had to pay him, and he was coming off a poor shooting year at the time so I understand why we waited.

Giddey isn't preventing anything financially or stylistically from where we're at currently. The Bulls don't have a favorable path to landing a superstar and building a true contender:

- They're not the most appealing free agent destination
- They're not bad enough to tank for a #1 pick superstar (with or without Giddey)
- They don't have the most assets to trade for a superstar

$25-30M a year is not "build around you" money, especially with the cap expected to continue rising. Outside of Williams, who's essentially an MLE contract in the long-term, the Bulls aren't on the hook for any significant long-term money. So, even with a re-signed Giddey, they'll have room to build in whatever way they choose.

Giddey shot 46% on C&S 3s post-ASB. His C&S attempts made up 75% of his total three-point attempts. Even with slight regression to the high 30s, he's not a player that's preventing you from building the right way offensively to compliment another scorer. Obviously, if you believe the shooting is a fluke, then it is what it is. But, even if you just meet somewhere in the middle on his shooting, he's at least an improved shooter and closer to passable than a liability right now.

[Red Larrivee]

I'm with you. It is very hard to answer the question as to whether Giddey is "the right guy" for this team without knowing AT LEAST who our #1 option is going to be. That's why I have been in the pro-tank camp (along with many here) that many here have been in because until you have your #1 option, you're just treading water until then. Without knowing that piece of information, the Giddey question isn't meaningful. It's like going back to the pre-Jordan Bulls and debating whether they should extend Orlando Woolridge.

Exactly. It's way too hypothetical, especially without a favorable path to getting there.

Because of that, the Bulls need major luck in player development to build something significant. Maybe Giddey is a big part of that luck; maybe he's not? But, because you're not bad enough to tank for that player, appealing enough to sign that player, or rich enough in assets to trade for that player, you have to try something.

It's not the best spot to be, but it is what it is. It's not a Giddey problem, but more so what the front office has cornered themselves into overall.

[League Circles]

It's possible for Giddey to be all-NBA and still prevent us from ever being a true contender. Individual (regular season) stats just aren't a great indicator IMO of a player's ability to win when it counts. For example, take peak Harden or Westbrook. They out up the stats we hope Giddey can, but could you ever truly win at a high level with those guys running the show? And Giddey is a lesser physical prospect which is a big deal on D.

IMO we didn't lose on the Jimmy deal, because he was still worth what we had to pay him, and he was coming off a poor shooting year at the time so I understand why we waited.

Giddey isn't preventing anything financially or stylistically from where we're at currently. The Bulls don't have a favorable path to landing a superstar and building a true contender:

- They're not the most appealing free agent destination
- They're not bad enough to tank for a #1 pick superstar (with or without Giddey)
- They don't have the most assets to trade for a superstar

$25-30M a year is not "build around you" money, especially with the cap expected to continue rising. Outside of Williams, who's essentially an MLE contract in the long-term, the Bulls aren't on the hook for any significant long-term money. So, even with a re-signed Giddey, they'll have room to build in whatever way they choose.

Giddey shot 46% on C&S 3s post-ASB. His C&S attempts made up 75% of his total three-point attempts. Even with slight regression to the high 30s, he's not a player that's preventing you from building the right way offensively to compliment another scorer. Obviously, if you believe the shooting is a fluke, then it is what it is. But, even if you just meet somewhere in the middle on his shooting, he's at least an improved shooter and closer to passable than a liability right now.

It's not particularly his shooting that I'm concerned with. It's his defense and ability to score when guarded by a high quality defender in a motivating situation. I'm fine with committing to Giddey long term, I just think it has a significant chance to bite us in the ass, so I'd like to try to get him for as cheap as possible.

[League Circles]

Ok- instead of talking about whether Giddey can win a ring, let’s focus on whether he can make the 2nd round. There’s no team ever that went from lottery to contender. You pay dues as a tough 1st/2nd-round opponent. Barre some anomaly cake-walk, making round 2 in itself is the mark of a strong team. Literally means you are top-8. Only reason I’d bust up such a team is if your stars are way over-the-hill. Most contenders got there and then made their tweaks/big additions.

I think Josh might be able to. Obviously not as the primary scoring option, but as the primary ballhandler and 2nd scorer. Cause of all the questions about his ceiling, Coby’s inconsistency, Pat’s salary, Matas being a ways away… it makes sense to tank. They need to strip the vets off the team, try to get assets. Of course AK will not do this.

I have no problem with Josh, even paying him. But locking in this roster is a bad idea. Besides AK trying to trade Vuc again, unfortunately I don’t see a patient building approach.

I'm with you. It is very hard to answer the question as to whether Giddey is "the right guy" for this team without knowing AT LEAST who our #1 option is going to be. That's why I have been in the pro-tank camp (along with many here) that many here have been in because until you have your #1 option, you're just treading water until then. Without knowing that piece of information, the Giddey question isn't meaningful. It's like going back to the pre-Jordan Bulls and debating whether they should extend Orlando Woolridge.

I disagree. The significance of who is a "#1 option" is really equivalent to "who is your primary ball handler?". That will be Giddey. He might not end up our best, 2nd best, or 3rd best player even, and he almost certainly won't become our leading scorer, but if he's on the team in deserving of a long term starting role, he'll be running the offense, so if we get a typical #1 (that dominates the ball), Giddey will likely either be benched, traded, or we'll probably play below our potential, because Giddey is only an important player if he's controlling the ball a lot.

[dougthonus]

Fair enough, but IMO nobody uses that term to refer to what we've done. Re-tool is when you keep most of a core and tweak some of the more minor pieces. We've just rebuilt our core entirely with 3 young players, and also traded our best player for a lottery pick. Again, I know it's not specifically the method or results you wanted, but it's certainly a rebuild.

I would say a rebuild, means you are tearing something down, then building it back up. We didn't tear anything down. We swapped mediocre win now players for different mediocre win now players.

[dougthonus]

Exactly. It's way too hypothetical, especially without a favorable path to getting there.

I agree. There is also rarely a favorable path.

Because of that, the Bulls need major luck in player development to build something significant.

Absolutely.

Maybe Giddey is a big part of that luck; maybe he's not?

I think he's not part of that major luck and also makes the other avenues for that major luck less likely.

But, because you're not bad enough to tank for that player, appealing enough to sign that player, or rich enough in assets to trade for that player, you have to try something.

Why is that? It's because we commit all our resources to building mediocrity, and signing Giddey to a massive deal is going to be another step towards that.

It's not the best spot to be, but it is what it is. It's not a Giddey problem, but more so what the front office has cornered themselves into overall.

I agree it isn't a Giddey problem per se. It's a problem that we have a FO that sought out Giddey as a solution to their problems vs taking a longer term view, and now we are here having the exact conversation everyone predicted we would have last off-season. Giddey compiled a lot of counting stats, but fits poorly next to a lot of players and is difficult to build around and will require a massive deal which we should be skeptical he is worth.

[WindyCityBorn]

Ok- instead of talking about whether Giddey can win a ring, let’s focus on whether he can make the 2nd round. There’s no team ever that went from lottery to contender. You pay dues as a tough 1st/2nd-round opponent. Barre some anomaly cake-walk, making round 2 in itself is the mark of a strong team. Literally means you are top-8. Only reason I’d bust up such a team is if your stars are way over-the-hill. Most contenders got there and then made their tweaks/big additions.

I think Josh might be able to. Obviously not as the primary scoring option, but as the primary ballhandler and 2nd scorer. Cause of all the questions about his ceiling, Coby’s inconsistency, Pat’s salary, Matas being a ways away… it makes sense to tank. They need to strip the vets off the team, try to get assets. Of course AK will not do this.

I have no problem with Josh, even paying him. But locking in this roster is a bad idea. Besides AK trying to trade Vuc again, unfortunately I don’t see a patient building approach.

Yeah I’m more concerned about not being one of the jokes the NBA anymore. If a roster built around Giddey/Matas duo plus maybe Coby can get us to 50 wins and a second round appearance I’ll take that right now.

People talking about championship or bust are being unrealistic.

[Indomitable]

I mean I think you just named a huge group of guys that people would say "That's a bad contract" about, so I don't know much happier that makes me feel. The ones you don't feel are bad contracts right now are guys that you still view have a lot of potential to be two way players if their offense continues to grow and still are concerned that they'll be bad contracts if it doesn't happen.

I think Poole is the only player on that list who wouldn't have a market for a trade.

Either way, it's just pointing out that $30M isn't this grand figure. If you can sign him for less, then that's great; but I think the window for that is only cracked open at this point. $30M is in the range of what players of his caliber (or worse) are getting.

I'd say Giddey strikes me as worse than most of the players on this list. Maybe only Poole is worse than him, so I'm not sure he's in that same category of player, but I agree 30M isn't a max deal or anything in today's NBA.

Giddey's still a polarizing guy whom has no real comparables which also makes the discussion hard as his quality is very much subjective and eye of the beholder depending what you choose to focus on. I'm probably at the lower end of that spectrum. Not in the "worthless bum" group or anything, but I still think his value to me is probably 20M. I can squint real hard and get to 25M. He's just a player that brings so many problems with him that are so difficult to solve once he's a big piece of what you're doing.

You like Quickley better?

[jnrjr79]

Fair enough, but IMO nobody uses that term to refer to what we've done. Re-tool is when you keep most of a core and tweak some of the more minor pieces. We've just rebuilt our core entirely with 3 young players, and also traded our best player for a lottery pick. Again, I know it's not specifically the method or results you wanted, but it's certainly a rebuild.

I would say a rebuild, means you are tearing something down, then building it back up. We didn't tear anything down. We swapped mediocre win now players for different mediocre win now players.

I don’t really agree with that. Offloading DeMar, Zach, and Caruso in a single year is a rebuild. It might be a bad one if you’re down on doing thing like trading for Giddey instead of picks (though notably the Zach trade did involve getting this year’s FRP back/future protections eliminated), but it can’t be viewed as anything other than a rebuild IMO. The fact that the Bulls took back some short-term mediocre player contracts is just a function of contract matching.

Maybe this is just semantics, but I don’t think getting rid of your three best players is a mere retool.

[DrModesty]

I feel like people still don't understand how quickly the cap is rising. Assuming a 5 year deal, the projected cap on that last year is $226m. The second apron is projected at $302m. The top contracts in the league will be $79m. $30m is going to seem like a pretty small contract in a few years. We have been seeing non stars in the 30+ range for a few years at this point.