Lachlan Olbrich: Could he turn into something?

[League Circles]

Role player at best. So don’t put too much expectation than that.

15 roster spots. With a salary cap. Teams need a few role players too. Especially cheap ones to balance out all the big contracts the starters end up getting. What's SGA going to be making his final year? Almost a million dollars A GAME? You have to offset that with some cheap end of the bench contracts.

There are probably 100 guys you could pick up at the vet min better than this guy, so while I agree with your point, this guy still doesn't belong, which is fine, you shouldn't expect a guy drafted at 55 to ever play an NBA game.

Thank you, I've never understood why the bolded isn't common knowledge.

[Red Larrivee]

Thank you, I've never understood why the bolded isn't common knowledge.

Since the question was asked, I went back the last 5 years and even expanded it to the 45th pick.

Picks 45-60 (Last 5 years):

2024: Jamal Shead, Cam Christie, Antonio Reeves, Harrison Ingram, Tristen Newton, Enrique Freeman, Melvin Ajinça, Quentin Post, Cam Spencer, Anton Watson, Bronny James, Kevin McCullar Jr, Ulrich Chomche, Ariel Hukporti

2023: GG Jackson, Seth Lundy, Mojave King, Jordan Miller, Emoni Bates, Keyontae Johnson, Jalen Wilson, Toumani Camara, Jaylen Clark, Jalen Slawson, Isaiah Wong, Tarik Biberovic, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Chris Livingston

2022: Josh Minott, Ismael Kamagate, Vince Williams Jr, Kendall Brown, Isaiah Mobley, Matteo Spagnolo, Tyrese Martin, Karlo Matkovic, JD Davison, Yannick Nzosa, Gui Santos, Luke Travers, Jabari Walker, Hugo Besson

2021: Juhann Begarin, Dalano Banton, David Johnson, Shariffe Cooper, Marcus Zegarowski, Filip Petrusev, Brandon Boston Jr, Luka Garza, Charles Bassey, Sandro M, Aaron Wiggins, Scottie Lewis, Balsa Koprivica, Jericho Sims, Raquan Gray, Georgios Kalaitzakis

2020: Jordan Nwora, CJ Elleby, Yam Madar, Nico Mannion, Isaiah Joe, Skylar Mays, KJ Martin, Cassius Winston, Cassius Stanley, Jay Scrubb, Grant Riller, Paul Reed, Reggie Perry, Jalen Harris, Sam Merrill

I bolded players who I think might be at least somewhat of a hit. So that's a 13% "hit" rate. My guess is that it gets a lot worse than 13% if I include more years.

It's hard to be disappointed when you know going into it that there's basically a 90% chance you're not drafting an NBA player. And if you do? It's largely players who are replaceable.

[Red Larrivee]

For comparison

(Picks 31-44 - The Last 5 Years): Hits Only

2020: Tre Jones, Nick Richards
2021: Herb Jones, Miles McBride, Ayo Dosunmu
2022: Andrew Nembhard, Jaylin Williams, Max Christie
2023: N/A (ended up being an awful year for the Bulls to trade into this portion of the 2nd)
2024: Kyle Filipowski, Jaylen Wells, Adem Bona

16% Hit Rate

There's better players in this group, but interesting that the "hit rate" in terms of quantity really isn't that much different from what you'd perceive as the worse part of the 2nd round. I think that number would probably go up a little bit though with more sample size.

Either way, if you get a useful role player from the 2nd round for a season or two, count your blessings.

[Guru]

You both are amateurs.. 4x a day here.

I shall double my efforts

I mean quadruple really.

Star Wars Baby