Would you offer Ayo an extension?

[League Circles]

How is a guy that you list as the 3rd string at the 1 position going to get even 5 mpg, let alone 20.

Only Ayo sees the rotation when everyone is healthy IMO is if Williams and Okoro are both highly disappointing.

I shoe-horned him there for simplicity, but his role is likely expanded beyond that. On defense Billy has him play 1-3 pretty fluidly, and sometimes even playing the 4 as well. He usually takes the toughest backcourt assignment when playing. On offense he's nominally a 1, but in reality he's more of a combo guard who plays off of whoever the main on ball guy is. So I wouldn't read too much into him being put there. I think in reality he shares backup spots 1-3 most nights.

I also think he's objectively better than Pat, and maybe Okoro, but I haven't seen him as much so I can't say. End of the day there's not a whole lot of separation in terms of quality when it comes to Okoro, Pat, Jones and Huerter, IMO. They all give you something a little different, all fit into lineups pretty easily, and all can be more valuable than another one on any given night.

I think it will / should be more like:

1: Coby (30), T.Jones (18)
2: Okoro (28); Ayo (20)
3: Giddey (32); Huerter (16)
4: Mats (30); Noa/Pat (18)
5: Collins (24); Vuc/Smith (24)

Sadly, Vuc will likely start. I do think Noa at some point starts getting limited “development” minutes consistently. Giddey may well get time at the 4 with Huerter at the 3 and Pat crowded out, too.

This is very close to how I see things. For purpose of discussion defining position defensively, obviously yes Coby and Jones will split all the minutes at the 1. Okoro starting and playing 28 mpg is spot on. The C position is basically a 3 headed monster situation nobody disagrees with too much there. Giddey will start at the 3 and play big minutes.

IMO Essengue and Pat are virtual locks for the rotation getting pretty much all the backup forward minutes, which to me leaves Ayo and Huerter fighting for the backup minutes at the 2. I wouldn't be shocked to see a 12 man rotation where Ayo, Huerter, and 2 of the centers each get only 10 mpg.

DNP-CDs to Carter, Terry, Phillips for sure.

[dougthonus]

Glad you said this. There are 144 minutes at the 1-3 positions. For purposes of this argument, let's say Giddey and White account for 64. The remaining 80 minutes will likely be split between: Okoro, Jones, Huerter, Ayo and Pwill (who will also be battling Noa for back-up 4 minutes).

In terms of key attributes, here is how I rank these guys (excluding Terry because I just think he is behind all of these guys, same with Carter)

Scoring: Huerter, Jones (who was an offensive surprise last season), Ayo, Okoro, Pwill
3pt Shooting: Huerter, PWill, tie between Okoro, Ayo (due to Ayo's bad season), Jones
Playmaking: Jones, Ayo, Huerter, Okoro, Pwill
Defense: tie between Okoro and Jones, Pwill, tie between Huerter and Ayo

Overall I suggest that Okoro will get the nod as the 3rd starter due (I'm guessing 26 mpg, but could be anywhere from 22 to 30) to his defense and that we just traded for him. Jones and Huerter will be the primary back-ups for the the PG/SG roles and could also take some of the minutes from what I'm calling the SF position (although in Jones' case, it may just mean that Giddey is still on the floor at the 3) and I see both guys getting 16-20mpg. I think Pwill and Ayo battle for the 3rd back-up spot with 14-18 mpg at stake.

I'd take Ayo defensively over PWill / Jones. PWill is a poor team defender, and I think Ayo is better as a team defender. Jones can only guard one position whereas Ayo can guard multiple positions.

I'd also that PWill, Ayo are similar level shooters (both had down years and injury issues last year that may have impacted it but were 40% the year before) and above Jones / Okoro. PWill has had a more consistent career as a shooter, but he's a low volume, slow release, only stand still shooter option, which is more similar to Ayo. I'd actually give Ayo the edge on release speed / shooting mechanics. Okoro / Jones are worse options with lower volume / ability.

As a general scorer, not sure Huerter is any better than Ayo except in shooting, so that's somewhat double counting. Jones had similar points per minute as Ayo, and seems similar as a scorer to me (though his better play making makes him better as an offensive player on the whole).

I'd say Ayo is the 2nd best defender (behind Okoro) and 3rd best offensive player (behind Huerter and Jones) among these guys, but also the most well rounded and versatile. Jones can really only play backup PG, so the versatility really hurts him some. Huerter is also kind of a situational player due to the lack of defense and ability to be hunted and lack of defensive versatility (especially next to Giddey).

It's sort of interesting though how useful that versatility is because he's not the best at anything. You could also make the argument that whatever you're trying to do, there's always someone more useful than Ayo.

[sco]

Glad you said this. There are 144 minutes at the 1-3 positions. For purposes of this argument, let's say Giddey and White account for 64. The remaining 80 minutes will likely be split between: Okoro, Jones, Huerter, Ayo and Pwill (who will also be battling Noa for back-up 4 minutes).

In terms of key attributes, here is how I rank these guys (excluding Terry because I just think he is behind all of these guys, same with Carter)

Scoring: Huerter, Jones (who was an offensive surprise last season), Ayo, Okoro, Pwill
3pt Shooting: Huerter, PWill, tie between Okoro, Ayo (due to Ayo's bad season), Jones
Playmaking: Jones, Ayo, Huerter, Okoro, Pwill
Defense: tie between Okoro and Jones, Pwill, tie between Huerter and Ayo

Overall I suggest that Okoro will get the nod as the 3rd starter due (I'm guessing 26 mpg, but could be anywhere from 22 to 30) to his defense and that we just traded for him. Jones and Huerter will be the primary back-ups for the the PG/SG roles and could also take some of the minutes from what I'm calling the SF position (although in Jones' case, it may just mean that Giddey is still on the floor at the 3) and I see both guys getting 16-20mpg. I think Pwill and Ayo battle for the 3rd back-up spot with 14-18 mpg at stake.

I'd take Ayo defensively over PWill / Jones. PWill is a poor team defender, and I think Ayo is better as a team defender. Jones can only guard one position whereas Ayo can guard multiple positions.

I'd also that PWill, Ayo are similar level shooters (both had down years and injury issues last year that may have impacted it but were 40% the year before) and above Jones / Okoro. PWill has had a more consistent career as a shooter, but he's a low volume, slow release, only stand still shooter option, which is more similar to Ayo. I'd actually give Ayo the edge on release speed / shooting mechanics. Okoro / Jones are worse options with lower volume / ability.

As a general scorer, not sure Huerter is any better than Ayo except in shooting, so that's somewhat double counting. Jones had similar points per minute as Ayo, and seems similar as a scorer to me (though his better play making makes him better as an offensive player on the whole).

I'd say Ayo is the 2nd best defender (behind Okoro) and 3rd best offensive player (behind Huerter and Jones) among these guys, but also the most well rounded and versatile. Jones can really only play backup PG, so the versatility really hurts him some.

I'm way higher on Jones than you. His defense was WAY better than Ayo's. Ayo's defense has slipped significantly the past 2 or 3 seasons (really hasn't been great since his rookie year). IMO the combo of his injury and bulking up has made him very average as a POA defender. Your point about Jones mainly good at defending the PG, I get it. That said, you can easily play Jones minutes alongside Giddey, and PG POA defense may be the most important thing to have out there for most teams.

[League Circles]

Glad you said this. There are 144 minutes at the 1-3 positions. For purposes of this argument, let's say Giddey and White account for 64. The remaining 80 minutes will likely be split between: Okoro, Jones, Huerter, Ayo and Pwill (who will also be battling Noa for back-up 4 minutes).

In terms of key attributes, here is how I rank these guys (excluding Terry because I just think he is behind all of these guys, same with Carter)

Scoring: Huerter, Jones (who was an offensive surprise last season), Ayo, Okoro, Pwill
3pt Shooting: Huerter, PWill, tie between Okoro, Ayo (due to Ayo's bad season), Jones
Playmaking: Jones, Ayo, Huerter, Okoro, Pwill
Defense: tie between Okoro and Jones, Pwill, tie between Huerter and Ayo

Overall I suggest that Okoro will get the nod as the 3rd starter due (I'm guessing 26 mpg, but could be anywhere from 22 to 30) to his defense and that we just traded for him. Jones and Huerter will be the primary back-ups for the the PG/SG roles and could also take some of the minutes from what I'm calling the SF position (although in Jones' case, it may just mean that Giddey is still on the floor at the 3) and I see both guys getting 16-20mpg. I think Pwill and Ayo battle for the 3rd back-up spot with 14-18 mpg at stake.

I'd take Ayo defensively over PWill / Jones. PWill is a poor team defender, and I think Ayo is better as a team defender. Jones can only guard one position whereas Ayo can guard multiple positions.

I'd also that PWill, Ayo are similar level shooters (both had down years and injury issues last year that may have impacted it but were 40% the year before) and above Jones / Okoro. PWill has had a more consistent career as a shooter, but he's a low volume, slow release, only stand still shooter option, which is more similar to Ayo. I'd actually give Ayo the edge on release speed / shooting mechanics. Okoro / Jones are worse options with lower volume / ability.

As a general scorer, not sure Huerter is any better than Ayo except in shooting, so that's somewhat double counting. Jones had similar points per minute as Ayo, and seems similar as a scorer to me (though his better play making makes him better as an offensive player on the whole).

I'd say Ayo is the 2nd best defender (behind Okoro) and 3rd best offensive player (behind Huerter and Jones) among these guys, but also the most well rounded and versatile. Jones can really only play backup PG, so the versatility really hurts him some.

I'm way higher on Jones than you. His defense was WAY better than Ayo's. Ayo's defense has slipped significantly the past 2 or 3 seasons (really hasn't been great since his rookie year). IMO the combo of his injury and bulking up has made him very average as a POA defender. Your point about Jones mainly good at defending the PG, I get it. That said, you can easily play Jones minutes alongside Giddey, and PG POA defense may be the most important thing to have out there for most teams.

I think one and only one of Giddey and Jones will be on the court running the point at all times - Giddey from the 3 and Jones from the 1. They'll be our rocks on the court controlling tempo and the ball. Two super smart players. Can't wait.

[kodo]

It's sort of interesting though how useful that versatility is because he's not the best at anything. You could also make the argument that whatever you're trying to do, there's always someone more useful than Ayo.

Well he's very good attacking the basket. Min 8 drives per game, he's a top guard in drive completion %.
Beal 59.2%
Haliburton 58.3%
Giannis 58.2%
Durant 58.1%
Ayo 57.7%
SGA 56.7%
Tatum 56.0%
Derozan 55.7%
Brunson 55.1%

It's a 3P shooting league now so that might not excite anyone anymore but he is pretty good at something.

[dougthonus]

I'm way higher on Jones than you. His defense was WAY better than Ayo's. Ayo's defense has slipped significantly the past 2 or 3 seasons (really hasn't been great since his rookie year).

Yeah, I just think I disagree on that, but I get where you are coming from.

Your point about Jones mainly good at defending the PG, I get it. That said, you can easily play Jones minutes alongside Giddey, and PG POA defense may be the most important thing to have out there for most teams.

If Tre is just playing backup PG that's fine. I don't think he's a good fit next to Giddey given he can't shoot. They don't help each other offensively, and Tre's lack of versatility on defense doesn't make him an ideal fit there. You'd rather just play someone like Okoro if you were going straight defensive option.

Generally speaking, I think bigger PGs are also a lot more common. Most of the defensive need I feel is to defend bigger players, and certainly the ability to defend multiple positions so you don't get hurt on switches has a lot more value defensively.

[Bulliever2020]

Love Ayo but he's been incredibly inconsistent. And coming off a regression year last season I am definitely going to need to see more from him before offering any type of extension that isn't sub-teens in AAV. Anything approaching 20/year is just crazy to me. He's worth an Okoro level contract at most right now.

[rosenthall]

After thinking about it some more, if we were to be operating over the cap this next offseason I'd be fine with a 4/40 deal, or something in that neighborhood. Seems about right for a player of Ayo's calibre. However, since we'll likely be operating under the cap going into this offseason, the opportunity cost of the contract is much higher, and I think a deal only makes sense if it's something you are confident can be traded into capspace right away if you needed it, and that AAV is probably much lower than his true value. Probably no more than what he makes right now.

I doubt Ayo would agree to such a deal, when he can reasonably think that he has an MLE deal waiting for him if he has a good-but-not-great season.

[HomoSapien]

Boy, if the Bulls offer Ayo $88m while holding firm on Giddey at $80m, I think I would have to quit.

I really do like Ayo and would love to keep him, but given Jones' resigning we should probably let this be an evaluation year.

[robert76]

If I offer Giddey 4/80 it would be very strange offering Ayo 4/88. I'm not even sure I would offer him the MLE. 4/40 sounds like a very rich offer for what he brings to the table.

If Ayo would take 4/40 (and he wouldn't) that would be a grand slam for the Bulls.

The MLE in 4-5 years is going to be around 17-19M. In the grand scheme of things, 10M is going to be nothing in this league.

I really hope we keep Ayo. I could easily see him going to a better organization and becoming significantly more valuable. He fits so many different lineups and team structures. I'm confident his three-point shot will bounce back.

10 million is obscene for a guy who doesn't play, which Ayo is clearly at risk for even on this mediocre team. I mean at the 1-2-3 spots, clearly Coby, Giddey, Jones and Okoro are already ahead of him in the pecking order. If Essengue plays some at the 3 spot he likely will be too. I also happen to think Patrick and Huerter are likely to be ahead of him.

So he's projecting as the 5th to 8th best perimeter player on an average team. When guys are healthy you don't need any more than 6 max. And on top of all of that, Matas would be better at the 3, and both Terry AND Phillips have more physical upside potential.

I don't think Terry showed anything that would put him above Ayo in the lineup.

[DASMACKDOWN]

Yes without question.

We have absolutely no clue what is in store for us thru this season. We might lose Giddey. We might lose Coby. All the logjam of players in the backcourt might be down to like 2 players. So yes we can and should resign him.

[MikeDC]

Yes without question.

We have absolutely no clue what is in store for us thru this season. We might lose Giddey. We might lose Coby. All the logjam of players in the backcourt might be down to like 2 players. So yes we can and should resign him.

Even if we did, we'd still have Jones, Okoro, Terry, and Huerter under contract. And the ever useless Jevon Carter.

Even if we somehow lost Giddey and Coby without getting any guards back, we still wouldn't need Ayo at all.

And if we lost both of them, it would surely mean we're tanking and doing a full rebuild, so we'd be better off minimizing our long-term obligations and not extending Ayo.

Given that we resigned Tre Jones and brought in Okoro who's also guaranteed for next year, the sensible move is to trade Ayo the moment we can.

[League Circles]

Yes without question.

We have absolutely no clue what is in store for us thru this season. We might lose Giddey. We might lose Coby. All the logjam of players in the backcourt might be down to like 2 players. So yes we can and should resign him.

Even if we did, we'd still have Jones, Okoro, Terry, and Huerter under contract. And the ever useless Jevon Carter.

Even if we somehow lost Giddey and Coby without getting any guards back, we still wouldn't need Ayo at all.

And if we lost both of them, it would surely mean we're tanking and doing a full rebuild, so we'd be better off minimizing our long-term obligations and not extending Ayo.

Given that we resigned Tre Jones and brought in Okoro who's also guaranteed for next year, the sensible move is to trade Ayo the moment we can.

I think he means in a year, as we'll only have Jones and Okoro under contract then, but I'm with you - who cares?

If Coby and/or Giddey are gone, we'll almost certainly not want any undesirable wins that Ayo could help us get. It'll be a hard tank.

[kodo]

I don't think Terry showed anything that would put him above Ayo in the lineup.

I don't think they compete for the same job and price to be compared, Terry has a 7' 1" wingspan and generally is the primary defender on F spots, including PF on switches. He's completely off-ball on offense and he shot 36% from 3 after the ASG. He's a 3&D player and makes $3.5M. We have him for 1 more year at $5M and if we resign him, he's probably a min so back to $3M. He's a guy you just fill up the roster with. We're assuming Ayo needs $10M to stay.

You would think $5M difference isn't much for a better bench guy, but we're risking losing our best player over $5M so I think it makes a huge difference to the FO.

[Ballerkingn23]

I think its a given we're going to keep or try to keep both Coby and Ayo and make them apart of this grand master plan AK was talking about for 2026.

We're just waiting on Giddy to ink his deal and then after that we're going to go all out for Coby and Ayo and call it an off-season.

[League Circles]

I think its a given we're going to keep or try to keep both Coby and Ayo and make them apart of this grand master plan AK was talking about for 2026.

We're just waiting on Giddy to ink his deal and then after that we're going to go all out for Coby and Ayo and call it an off-season.

There's nothing to be done with Coby this summer. We can only offer him like 18 mil/year on an extension right now per CBA rules, which I think we did but obviously he did or will turn that down cause he's worth more.

I don't think it's automatic at all that we'll try to keep Ayo. We've acquired 4 new guys that directly or indirectly compete with Ayo for roles since the middle of last season.

[drosestruts]

Ayo is an interesting eye-test vs stats guy

I like Ayo, I enjoy watching him play, and feel he plays well.

Yet, four years in a row now the Bulls have been better with Ayo off the court.

He's also kind of in a situation now that Giddey was in with OKC, albiet to a much lesser/extreme extent.

But what's Ayo's best role? How does he fit alongside other players in their best roles?

If you're looking for a lead guard I'd easily pick Giddey and Jones over Ayo.

If you're looking for a shooter I'll take Coby and Huerter.

He's a jack of all trades type player, but I'm not sure he's good enough at anything to guarantee himself playing time or in the case of this discussion - an early extension.

He has the 266th best VORP in the league - which is in line with a variety of guards including spencer dinwiddie, jose alvardao, gary trent jr, cory joseph, cam spencer, amir coffey, jordan clarkson, kyle lowry, delon wright

not sure amongst his peers he screams - "early extension"

At the end of the day, if he were to re-sign for something super team friendly.... sure, why not

But I don't see anything that makes sense for both him (he should play out the season to showcase his value) and the team that would be realistic at this time

[dougthonus]

Even if we did, we'd still have Jones, Okoro, Terry, and Huerter under contract. And the ever useless Jevon Carter.

Believe he was talking about after this season when Terry, Huerter, and Carter will all be FAs after this season as well. Seems unlikely we'd bring back any of them. IE, we have a guard glut this year, but we don't have one going forward.

Given that we resigned Tre Jones and brought in Okoro who's also guaranteed for next year, the sensible move is to trade Ayo the moment we can.

If we can get some value for Ayo, then we certainly should do this. Depending what kind of extension you could get him on, he might become an even more desirable trade asset extended vs not, though that's somewhat of a random gamble on you extend him now and he increases his value by the trade deadline and could not longer be extended at the same price. A team trading for him would likely enjoy having some certainty if the extension is at a reasonable figure.

Granted, the reasonable figure thing is the tricky part. If you extend early, that may work against you too, and not extending at all still allows the other team to extend him post trade. Might be more interesting for a team that he may not want to naturally extend with.

[SalmonsSuperfan]

Ayo is an interesting eye-test vs stats guy

I like Ayo, I enjoy watching him play, and feel he plays well.

Yet, four years in a row now the Bulls have been better with Ayo off the court.

He's also kind of in a situation now that Giddey was in with OKC, albiet to a much lesser/extreme extent.

But what's Ayo's best role? How does he fit alongside other players in their best roles?

If you're looking for a lead guard I'd easily pick Giddey and Jones over Ayo.

If you're looking for a shooter I'll take Coby and Huerter.

He's a jack of all trades type player, but I'm not sure he's good enough at anything to guarantee himself playing time or in the case of this discussion - an early extension.

He has the 266th best VORP in the league - which is in line with a variety of guards including spencer dinwiddie, jose alvardao, gary trent jr, cory joseph, cam spencer, amir coffey, jordan clarkson, kyle lowry, delon wright

not sure amongst his peers he screams - "early extension"

At the end of the day, if he were to re-sign for something super team friendly.... sure, why not

But I don't see anything that makes sense for both him (he should play out the season to showcase his value) and the team that would be realistic at this time

I read this like verse
He is not worth big money
Ayo Dosunmu

more haiku-posting to come

[kodo]

At the end of the day, if he were to re-sign for something super team friendly.... sure, why not

But I don't see anything that makes sense for both him (he should play out the season to showcase his value) and the team that would be realistic at this time

Agreed. From Ayo's POV, I'd refuse anything cheap by the Bulls. Let's say they offered $5M, I'd refuse it as Ayo. He can certainly get that or similar in FA and I'd just sign with another team to get more minutes and showcase myself for a bigger contract. Even if there's not a lot of cap space, there's still a ton of signings under MLE and certainly BAE.

This reminds me of the Derrick Jones situation. He actually turned down his PO with us and signed for LESS money with Dallas, because Billy just wasn't playing him. He actually got some burn in Dallas and just 1 year of getting some actual PT landed him a $30M/3 year contract, and I think DJ is a lot less talented than Ayo.