2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery

[nomorezorro]

i think it's worth interrogating what a "high upside" prospect actually looks like, because i have a feeling people's perceptions aren't necessarily aligned with reality on this front

other than giannis and i guess maybe paul george, i can't think of any stars that started out as raw, toolsy guys who didn't show a ton of on-court impact before getting drafted. i really don't think picking a player like that is a higher-upside play than hoping a "low ceiling" dude can go from good to great

(in terms of what "trying to hit a home run" would actually look like, i think it might be more common to hit on a boom/bust prospect who has demonstrated an elite skill but also has a glaring weakness that invites legitimate questions about how his game translates to the next level. could be wrong, but that's my first instinct anyway)

[nomorezorro]

just talking about active players in that post, but the historical examples that immediately come to mind that fit the "insanely raw -> star" career trajectory are all big men

[drosestruts]

i think it's worth interrogating what a "high upside" prospect actually looks like, because i have a feeling people's perceptions aren't necessarily aligned with reality on this front

other than giannis and i guess maybe paul george, i can't think of any stars that started out as raw, toolsy guys who didn't show a ton of on-court impact before getting drafted. i really don't think picking a player like that is a higher-upside play than hoping a "low ceiling" dude can go from good to great

(in terms of what "trying to hit a home run" would actually look like, i think it might be more common to hit on a boom/bust prospect who has demonstrated an elite skill but also has a glaring weakness that invites legitimate questions about how his game translates to the next level. could be wrong, but that's my first instinct anyway)

To take the baseball analogy further, it seems like people think the only options are "home run" or "striking out swinging", but you can draft a guy who might look like a double, but with the right wind and conditions (team fit, roster structure, coach) that double could be a homerun.

Ok, I really stretched this baseball analogy out.

Point being, I'd rather role the dice with a Deandre Hunter and not hit that homerun but end up with a double then a Cam Reddish and not get the homerun by striking out. (these two players are just examples of a bigger trend i'm noticing whether it be Reddish, Bol Bol or others.)

[Jcool0]

i think it's worth interrogating what a "high upside" prospect actually looks like, because i have a feeling people's perceptions aren't necessarily aligned with reality on this front

other than giannis and i guess maybe paul george, i can't think of any stars that started out as raw, toolsy guys who didn't show a ton of on-court impact before getting drafted. i really don't think picking a player like that is a higher-upside play than hoping a "low ceiling" dude can go from good to great

(in terms of what "trying to hit a home run" would actually look like, i think it might be more common to hit on a boom/bust prospect who has demonstrated an elite skill but also has a glaring weakness that invites legitimate questions about how his game translates to the next level. could be wrong, but that's my first instinct anyway)

FWIW Paul George was a really good college player. He averaged 16 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals & 90% from the line as a sophomore.

"In five years," the Eastern Conference scout said, "Paul George will be the best player to come out of this draft.

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/george-making-name-self-draft-173700616--nba.html

[fleet]

i think it's worth interrogating what a "high upside" prospect actually looks like, because i have a feeling people's perceptions aren't necessarily aligned with reality on this front

other than giannis and i guess maybe paul george, i can't think of any stars that started out as raw, toolsy guys who didn't show a ton of on-court impact before getting drafted. i really don't think picking a player like that is a higher-upside play than hoping a "low ceiling" dude can go from good to great

(in terms of what "trying to hit a home run" would actually look like, i think it might be more common to hit on a boom/bust prospect who has demonstrated an elite skill but also has a glaring weakness that invites legitimate questions about how his game translates to the next level. could be wrong, but that's my first instinct anyway)

FWIW Paul George was a really good college player. He averaged 16 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals & 90% from the line as a sophomore.

"In five years," the Eastern Conference scout said, "Paul George will be the best player to come out of this draft.

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/george-making-name-self-draft-173700616--nba.html

Joyword for me is "sophomore". Our board has a habit of denying raw freshman the opportunity to grow their games and maturity.

[Jcool0]

i think it's worth interrogating what a "high upside" prospect actually looks like, because i have a feeling people's perceptions aren't necessarily aligned with reality on this front

other than giannis and i guess maybe paul george, i can't think of any stars that started out as raw, toolsy guys who didn't show a ton of on-court impact before getting drafted. i really don't think picking a player like that is a higher-upside play than hoping a "low ceiling" dude can go from good to great

(in terms of what "trying to hit a home run" would actually look like, i think it might be more common to hit on a boom/bust prospect who has demonstrated an elite skill but also has a glaring weakness that invites legitimate questions about how his game translates to the next level. could be wrong, but that's my first instinct anyway)

FWIW Paul George was a really good college player. He averaged 16 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals & 90% from the line as a sophomore.

"In five years," the Eastern Conference scout said, "Paul George will be the best player to come out of this draft.

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/george-making-name-self-draft-173700616--nba.html

Joyword for me is "sophomore". Our board has a habit of denying raw freshman the opportunity to grow their games and maturity.

Even as a freshman: 14 points, 6 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 1 block & 44% from 3.

I said this before but if Reddish had put these numbers up this year he would be a top 3 pick.

[JimmyJammer]

Here’s the “Not so good Cam” film. If you’re on team Cam, at least you can say he’s going to be a plus wing defender who can guard multiple positions

Watch on YouTube

I am in no way suggesting that we pick Reddish with the number 7 pick, but I would think if you get a wing defender who can guard multiple positions in what seems to be a weak draft, it's then fair to say that you are on the right track as a franchise. Those types of players are usually overlooked, but they are extremely important to the success of a team. And you couple that with a potentially smooth jumpshot, you might be up to something. So, I am cautiously optimistic about the prospect of having Reddish as a Bull with that 7th pick.

[fleet]

FWIW Paul George was a really good college player. He averaged 16 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals & 90% from the line as a sophomore.

"In five years," the Eastern Conference scout said, "Paul George will be the best player to come out of this draft.

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/george-making-name-self-draft-173700616--nba.html

Joyword for me is "sophomore". Our board has a habit of denying raw freshman the opportunity to grow their games and maturity.

Even as a freshman: 14 points, 6 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 1 block & 44% from 3.

I said this before but if Reddish had put these numbers up this year he would be a top 3 pick.

Cam had like 13, 4 and 1.5 steals in a lineup with Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. What would George's freshman numbers have been at Duke?

[cjbulls]

FWIW Paul George was a really good college player. He averaged 16 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals & 90% from the line as a sophomore.

"In five years," the Eastern Conference scout said, "Paul George will be the best player to come out of this draft.

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/george-making-name-self-draft-173700616--nba.html

Joyword for me is "sophomore". Our board has a habit of denying raw freshman the opportunity to grow their games and maturity.

Even as a freshman: 14 points, 6 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 1 block & 44% from 3.

I said this before but if Reddish had put these numbers up this year he would be a top 3 pick.

For Fresno state in last place. The context matters. Reddish’s numbers would have been different in that situation. I’m not pretending to know what they would be, but it changes everything to be the leading scorer on a bad mid major team

[nomorezorro]

yeah i was just kinda including paul george to be generous (and because the mid-major stuff is legitimately important context for his stats)

i was trying to think of who else might qualify...westbrook might be a better example because some people were high on him even after he put up pretty lackluster stats his freshman year in a very limited role. but he was dissimilar to reddish in that he was a late bloomer coming into college rather than a top prospect who was given a lot of playing time

[TyrusRose2425]

Take it with a huge grain of salt because the quality of the information has been up and down over the last year, but I was told we like Garland, just don't think he will make it to #7. It didn't sound like there was any intention to trade up either, but that's speculative on my part. I at least was not told we would try to trade up.

[Chi town]

It seems we won’t be seeing any Garland workout videos due to the promise. Same for White.

Makes for a pretty boring pre draft.

[Chi town]

Take it with a huge grain of salt because the quality of the information has been up and down over the last year, but I was told we like Garland, just don't think he will make it to #7. It didn't sound like there was any intention to trade up either, but that's speculative on my part. I at least was not told we would try to trade up.

Thanks. Glad to hear they like Garland. Doesn’t surprise me they won’t trade up. Maybe that will change if they get a better look.

[Chi town]

I see Garland and Curry in the same athletic category. Functional athletes that get to their spots and use their athleticism due to exceptional skills specifically their handle.

[taj2133]

Read on Twitter

[cjbulls]

Surprisingly, even for me, Danny Leroux (heavily analytics based) is on board with Cam.

No. 7 pick: A mid-lottery pick in what many believe is a weak draft is not the most desirable place to be but some players selected in this area will absolutely succeed and it is important for the Bulls to select one of them. Even with Lauri Markkanen and Carter Jr. in the fold, Forman would be wise to take the best prospect available irrespective of position because having an overstuffed frontcourt would be a very good problem to have down the line. That said, a perimeter player would be ideal, particularly if they can create reliable offense, space the floor or ideally both. In all likelihood, whoever they choose will come off the bench next season unless their play and talent warriors supplanting a starter early on. ACC products Coby White and Cam Reddish are worthwhile options to consider depending on how the first six picks shake out.

[cjbulls]

Read on Twitter

I think Little has the right mental makeup, but might be missing the IQ (the opposite of Reddish). Admittedly though I haven’t dove as deep into Little

[VolumePoster]

Read on Twitter

His measurements were solid. He’s a strong athlete. He doesn’t have reddish’s handles or stroke but he plays hard. He’ll make a solid career off atleticism and energy and his game has growth potential. If people are looking for a home run seing he’s big bad.

[DuckIII]

Read on Twitter

I think Little has the right mental makeup, but might be missing the IQ (the opposite of Reddish). Admittedly though I haven’t dove as deep into Little

Little was my guy coming into college. I was surprised at how he looked. Frequently couldn’t even tell he was out there. Seemed lost, wasn’t confident, and oddly did not appear to be the fluid athlete I thought he would be.

That said, he and Cam are both on my “I’m okay with that” list for the 7th pick.

[StunnerKO]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cash-considerations-a-chicago-bulls-pod/id1441491525?i=1000439206879


30 min mark on Cam , even hints to him and Barrett didn’t really click . He glows about Zion, seem Cam never felt comfortable at Duke