2024 NBA Draft - DA BULLS Edition Pick #11

[R3AL1TY]

True but ak's draft record isn't all that and he had a chance to possibly get a bunch of picks last year.

I'm gonna cut AK some slack since GarPax had way more time. But if he can't get another good pick after Ayo these next 2 years, then he either needs to hire better scouts or move on from his job.

Paxson got way more time because he earned it by drafting extremely well early and then maintaining a strong draft record throughout his career. When he stepped back Gar struggled a little with the draft relative to Paxson. But there is no comparison. AK has hit on one pick and it was an obvious second rounder that fell into his lap. Don’t get me wrong, he still gets full credit for actually taking him. But my point is it’s his only hit and it’s not like it was some farsighted creative one to be weighed heavily.

I agree. That's why I also mentioned earlier that I will give AK 2 more years to prove he's a good fit finding or putting his team in position for better talent.

[Jcool0]

True but ak's draft record isn't all that and he had a chance to possibly get a bunch of picks last year.

I'm gonna cut AK some slack since GarPax had way more time. But if he can't get another good pick after Ayo these next 2 years, then he either needs to hire better scouts or move on from his job.

Paxson got way more time because he earned it by drafting extremely well early and then maintaining a strong draft record throughout his career. When he stepped back Gar struggled a little with the draft relative to Paxson. But there is no comparison. AK has hit on one pick and it was an obvious second rounder that fell into his lap. Don’t get me wrong, he still gets full credit for actually taking him. But my point is it’s his only hit and it’s not like it was some farsighted creative one to be weighed heavily.

In a 17 year career Paxon hit on 3 players outside of the top 10. Gibson in 2009. Butler in 2011. Portis in 2015. He also thought taking Denzel Valentine and Doug McDermott were good ideas despite having zero NBA upside. It's not hard in an almost 20 year career to hit on a few top 10 picks. He missed way more then he hit. Probably a C+ at drafting and a D+ at team building.

[prolific passer]

I'm gonna cut AK some slack since GarPax had way more time. But if he can't get another good pick after Ayo these next 2 years, then he either needs to hire better scouts or move on from his job.

Paxson got way more time because he earned it by drafting extremely well early and then maintaining a strong draft record throughout his career. When he stepped back Gar struggled a little with the draft relative to Paxson. But there is no comparison. AK has hit on one pick and it was an obvious second rounder that fell into his lap. Don’t get me wrong, he still gets full credit for actually taking him. But my point is it’s his only hit and it’s not like it was some farsighted creative one to be weighed heavily.

In a 17 year career Paxon hit on 3 players outside of the top 10. Gibson in 2009. Butler in 2011. Portis in 2015. He also thought taking Denzel Valentine and Doug McDermott were good ideas despite having zero NBA upside. It's not hard in an almost 20 year career to hit on a few top 10 picks. He missed way more then he hit. Probably a C+ at drafting and a D+ at team building.

Well you had Paxson pretty much by himself from 03-08 who drafted the likes of Hinrich, Gordon, Noah, Rose, Duhon and signed Noc and traded for Deng. Then from 09 to whenever they both left you had GarPax who were good but not as good as Paxson was by himself during that 5 year stretch I mentioned.

Probably because Paxson had a plan when it came to his drafting with drafting players from winning situations. Seemed GarPax drafted guys based on their effort and hard work.

[R3AL1TY]

I'm gonna cut AK some slack since GarPax had way more time. But if he can't get another good pick after Ayo these next 2 years, then he either needs to hire better scouts or move on from his job.

Paxson got way more time because he earned it by drafting extremely well early and then maintaining a strong draft record throughout his career. When he stepped back Gar struggled a little with the draft relative to Paxson. But there is no comparison. AK has hit on one pick and it was an obvious second rounder that fell into his lap. Don’t get me wrong, he still gets full credit for actually taking him. But my point is it’s his only hit and it’s not like it was some farsighted creative one to be weighed heavily.

In a 17 year career Paxon hit on 3 players outside of the top 10. Gibson in 2009. Butler in 2011. Portis in 2015. He also thought taking Denzel Valentine and Doug McDermott were good ideas despite having zero NBA upside. It's not hard in an almost 20 year career to hit on a few top 10 picks. He missed way more then he hit. Probably a C+ at drafting and a D+ at team building.

When it comes to 1st rounders, GarPax technically had 6 stinkers:
Teague
Snell
McDermott
Hutchison
Valentine
Johnson

Compared to 11 solid picks:
Rose
Deng
Hinrich
Gordon
Noah
Gibson
Portis
White
WCJ
Butler
Markkanen

That's a good track record. Some may argue James Johnson was a solid pick too. If you add in the 2nd rounders, things will look disappointing but 2nd rounders have a very low success rate no matter who's at the helm.

[Jcool0]

Paxson got way more time because he earned it by drafting extremely well early and then maintaining a strong draft record throughout his career. When he stepped back Gar struggled a little with the draft relative to Paxson. But there is no comparison. AK has hit on one pick and it was an obvious second rounder that fell into his lap. Don’t get me wrong, he still gets full credit for actually taking him. But my point is it’s his only hit and it’s not like it was some farsighted creative one to be weighed heavily.

In a 17 year career Paxon hit on 3 players outside of the top 10. Gibson in 2009. Butler in 2011. Portis in 2015. He also thought taking Denzel Valentine and Doug McDermott were good ideas despite having zero NBA upside. It's not hard in an almost 20 year career to hit on a few top 10 picks. He missed way more then he hit. Probably a C+ at drafting and a D+ at team building.

When it comes to 1st rounders, GarPax technically had 6 stinkers:
Teague
Snell
McDermott
Hutchison
Valentine
Johnson

Compared to 11 solid picks:
Rose
Deng
Hinrich
Gordon
Noah
Gibson
Portis
White
WCJ
Butler
Markkanen

That's a good track record. Some may argue James Johnson was a solid pick too. If you add in the 2nd rounders, things will look disappointing but 2nd rounders have a very low success rate no matter who's at the helm.

I gave him a C+ which is what those picks add up to. For example Gordon was a solid pick but he was taken 3rd and really didn't live up to it and you could make the case Livingston was the better pick with his upside but probably should of taken Harris 3rd. Deng was good for a 7th pick. AIguodala was the better player but we know Paxon loves players from winning programs like Duke. With the WCJ pick he passed on Collin Sexton, Mikal Bridges, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miles Bridges & the guy most wanted to risk it on MPJ because without the injury he goes #1.

[Repeat 3-peat]

I still haven't moved off Knecht.

Salaun is too much of a project for me. The talk of him not having feel for the game is worrisome. Kevin Knox comparisons.

I wouldn't mind seeing them acquire a mid/late 2nd rounder and select Andrija Jelavic. He's an agile scoring big and good rebounder that plays for Mega in the ABA. He may be a draft and stash. His teammate Nikola Djurisic turned some heads at the combine and very strong play over the past month, may go top of the 2nd, maybe 1st?

Antonio Reeves as a UDFA signing.

[prolific passer]

Thunder lost the series to the Mavs....barely. good time to get a trade in place for that 12 pick and a possible lottery pick in next years for Caruso.

[2weekswithpay]

Read on Twitter

Salaun has been playing well for the past month or so. I expect him to be a late riser and go in the lottery. I'm not sure AK passes on him if he's available.

[R3AL1TY]

In a 17 year career Paxon hit on 3 players outside of the top 10. Gibson in 2009. Butler in 2011. Portis in 2015. He also thought taking Denzel Valentine and Doug McDermott were good ideas despite having zero NBA upside. It's not hard in an almost 20 year career to hit on a few top 10 picks. He missed way more then he hit. Probably a C+ at drafting and a D+ at team building.

When it comes to 1st rounders, GarPax technically had 6 stinkers:
Teague
Snell
McDermott
Hutchison
Valentine
Johnson

Compared to 11 solid picks:
Rose
Deng
Hinrich
Gordon
Noah
Gibson
Portis
White
WCJ
Butler
Markkanen

That's a good track record. Some may argue James Johnson was a solid pick too. If you add in the 2nd rounders, things will look disappointing but 2nd rounders have a very low success rate no matter who's at the helm.

I gave him a C+ which is what those picks add up to. For example Gordon was a solid pick but he was taken 3rd and really didn't live up to it and you could make the case Livingston was the better pick with his upside but probably should of taken Harris 3rd. Deng was good for a 7th pick. AIguodala was the better player but we know Paxon loves players from winning programs like Duke. With the WCJ pick he passed on Collin Sexton, Mikal Bridges, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miles Bridges & the guy most wanted to risk it on MPJ because without the injury he goes #1.

I can agree with that grade since a few of the decent picks could have been better if they went with someone else that was available. I personally would put them at a B-.

If AK can at least take their approach of drafting high effort/winning program guys with certain picks, the team can begin to improve talent wise.

[R3AL1TY]

I still haven't moved off Knecht.

Salaun is too much of a project for me. The talk of him not having feel for the game is worrisome. Kevin Knox comparisons.

I wouldn't mind seeing them acquire a mid/late 2nd rounder and select Andrija Jelavic. He's an agile scoring big and good rebounder that plays for Mega in the ABA. He may be a draft and stash. His teammate Nikola Djurisic turned some heads at the combine and very strong play over the past month, may go top of the 2nd, maybe 1st?

Antonio Reeves as a UDFA signing.

I like Knecht too. He will definitely bring shooting and off the ball scoring. My knock on him is his age for a lotto pick. But at this point, this team needs more shooting no matter the age.

[Jcool0]

I still haven't moved off Knecht.

Salaun is too much of a project for me. The talk of him not having feel for the game is worrisome. Kevin Knox comparisons.

I wouldn't mind seeing them acquire a mid/late 2nd rounder and select Andrija Jelavic. He's an agile scoring big and good rebounder that plays for Mega in the ABA. He may be a draft and stash. His teammate Nikola Djurisic turned some heads at the combine and very strong play over the past month, may go top of the 2nd, maybe 1st?

Antonio Reeves as a UDFA signing.

I like Knecht too. He will definitely bring shooting and off the ball scoring. My knock on him is his age for a lotto pick. But at this point, this team needs more shooting no matter the age.

I would like Holland with the pick but with him looking to be a top 8 pick now i think that ship has sailed. Knecht would be next on my list and he could fall because of his age. I've seen some mocks with him top 10 but when was the last time a senior was a top 10 pick? Normally that would be a huge red flag but with his start at junior college and him testing well at the combine i think he works out to at lest a Austin Reaves level.

[TheSuzerain]

Knecht seems Strus-like.

[DuckIII]

In a 17 year career Paxon hit on 3 players outside of the top 10. Gibson in 2009. Butler in 2011. Portis in 2015. He also thought taking Denzel Valentine and Doug McDermott were good ideas despite having zero NBA upside. It's not hard in an almost 20 year career to hit on a few top 10 picks. He missed way more then he hit. Probably a C+ at drafting and a D+ at team building.

When it comes to 1st rounders, GarPax technically had 6 stinkers:
Teague
Snell
McDermott
Hutchison
Valentine
Johnson

Compared to 11 solid picks:
Rose
Deng
Hinrich
Gordon
Noah
Gibson
Portis
White
WCJ
Butler
Markkanen

That's a good track record. Some may argue James Johnson was a solid pick too. If you add in the 2nd rounders, things will look disappointing but 2nd rounders have a very low success rate no matter who's at the helm.

I gave him a C+ which is what those picks add up to. For example Gordon was a solid pick but he was taken 3rd and really didn't live up to it and you could make the case Livingston was the better pick with his upside but probably should of taken Harris 3rd. Deng was good for a 7th pick. AIguodala was the better player but we know Paxon loves players from winning programs like Duke. With the WCJ pick he passed on Collin Sexton, Mikal Bridges, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miles Bridges & the guy most wanted to risk it on MPJ because without the injury he goes #1.

This is a severely flawed and ultimately meaningless way to grade a GMs draft history. You are doing a superficial “more hits than misses” analysis and assigning a grade based on a percentage like it’s a test in which an A+ is possible using that system.

But it’s not possible. All GMs who draft make mistakes. Indeed they all make huge mistakes. There is no A+ unless you grade on an acknowledged curve.

The only way to do it with any accuracy is to take into account the draft record relative to all other draft draft records while also weighting the picks and the drafts themselves in hindsight establishing some sort of likelihood of success metric based in where the pick falls and in what draft.

I’m not going to do all of that because I don’t care enough about proving how wrong you are about the strength of the very draft record you posted. But if you wanted to actually do it in a way that would make anyone care about and out stock in your grade, that’s how you would do it.

[Jcool0]

When it comes to 1st rounders, GarPax technically had 6 stinkers:
Teague
Snell
McDermott
Hutchison
Valentine
Johnson

Compared to 11 solid picks:
Rose
Deng
Hinrich
Gordon
Noah
Gibson
Portis
White
WCJ
Butler
Markkanen

That's a good track record. Some may argue James Johnson was a solid pick too. If you add in the 2nd rounders, things will look disappointing but 2nd rounders have a very low success rate no matter who's at the helm.

I gave him a C+ which is what those picks add up to. For example Gordon was a solid pick but he was taken 3rd and really didn't live up to it and you could make the case Livingston was the better pick with his upside but probably should of taken Harris 3rd. Deng was good for a 7th pick. AIguodala was the better player but we know Paxon loves players from winning programs like Duke. With the WCJ pick he passed on Collin Sexton, Mikal Bridges, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miles Bridges & the guy most wanted to risk it on MPJ because without the injury he goes #1.

This is a severely flawed and ultimately meaningless way to grade a GMs draft history. You are doing a superficial “more hits than misses” analysis and assigning a grade based on a percentage like it’s a test in which an A+ is possible using that system.

But it’s not possible. All GMs who draft make mistakes. Indeed they all make huge mistakes. There is no A+ unless you grade on an acknowledged curve.

The only way to do it with any accuracy is to take into account the draft record relative to all other draft draft records while also weighting the picks and the drafts themselves in hindsight establishing some sort of likelihood of success metric based in where the pick falls and in what draft.

I’m not going to do all of that because I don’t care enough about proving how wrong you are about the strength of the very draft record you posted. But if you wanted to actually do it in a way that would make anyone care about and out stock in your grade, that’s how you would do it.

Paxon wasn't a good GM. You know it, i know it , he knew it. He was a decent drafter. But choose to priorities players from winning programs over more talented players and in the end that made him average drafter picking inside of the top 10. 99% of GMs would of been fired much sooner with his record but we know Jerry loves to give jobs "for life". Is AK any better? who knows this is his highest pick since the Williams debacle. But much like that draft where you wanted to get into that top 3, this one you probably want to be in the top 10. We will see what happens.

[prolific passer]

I gave him a C+ which is what those picks add up to. For example Gordon was a solid pick but he was taken 3rd and really didn't live up to it and you could make the case Livingston was the better pick with his upside but probably should of taken Harris 3rd. Deng was good for a 7th pick. AIguodala was the better player but we know Paxon loves players from winning programs like Duke. With the WCJ pick he passed on Collin Sexton, Mikal Bridges, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miles Bridges & the guy most wanted to risk it on MPJ because without the injury he goes #1.

This is a severely flawed and ultimately meaningless way to grade a GMs draft history. You are doing a superficial “more hits than misses” analysis and assigning a grade based on a percentage like it’s a test in which an A+ is possible using that system.

But it’s not possible. All GMs who draft make mistakes. Indeed they all make huge mistakes. There is no A+ unless you grade on an acknowledged curve.

The only way to do it with any accuracy is to take into account the draft record relative to all other draft draft records while also weighting the picks and the drafts themselves in hindsight establishing some sort of likelihood of success metric based in where the pick falls and in what draft.

I’m not going to do all of that because I don’t care enough about proving how wrong you are about the strength of the very draft record you posted. But if you wanted to actually do it in a way that would make anyone care about and out stock in your grade, that’s how you would do it.

Paxon wasn't a good GM. You know it, i know it , he knew it. He was a decent drafter. But choose to priorities players from winning programs over more talented players and in the end that made him average drafter picking inside of the top 10. 99% of GMs would of been fired much sooner with his record but we know Jerry loves to give jobs "for life". Is AK any better? who knows this is his highest pick since the Williams debacle. But much like that draft where you wanted to get into that top 3, this one you probably want to be in the top 10. We will see what happens.

Reason why he chose players from winning situations is to change the culture of what the team was at that point.

[Jcool0]

This is a severely flawed and ultimately meaningless way to grade a GMs draft history. You are doing a superficial “more hits than misses” analysis and assigning a grade based on a percentage like it’s a test in which an A+ is possible using that system.

But it’s not possible. All GMs who draft make mistakes. Indeed they all make huge mistakes. There is no A+ unless you grade on an acknowledged curve.

The only way to do it with any accuracy is to take into account the draft record relative to all other draft draft records while also weighting the picks and the drafts themselves in hindsight establishing some sort of likelihood of success metric based in where the pick falls and in what draft.

I’m not going to do all of that because I don’t care enough about proving how wrong you are about the strength of the very draft record you posted. But if you wanted to actually do it in a way that would make anyone care about and out stock in your grade, that’s how you would do it.

Paxon wasn't a good GM. You know it, i know it , he knew it. He was a decent drafter. But choose to priorities players from winning programs over more talented players and in the end that made him average drafter picking inside of the top 10. 99% of GMs would of been fired much sooner with his record but we know Jerry loves to give jobs "for life". Is AK any better? who knows this is his highest pick since the Williams debacle. But much like that draft where you wanted to get into that top 3, this one you probably want to be in the top 10. We will see what happens.

Reason why he chose players from winning situations is to change the culture of what the team was at that point.

Well yeah but after a certain point talent needs to win out.

[Dan Z]

Paxon wasn't a good GM. You know it, i know it , he knew it. He was a decent drafter. But choose to priorities players from winning programs over more talented players and in the end that made him average drafter picking inside of the top 10. 99% of GMs would of been fired much sooner with his record but we know Jerry loves to give jobs "for life". Is AK any better? who knows this is his highest pick since the Williams debacle. But much like that draft where you wanted to get into that top 3, this one you probably want to be in the top 10. We will see what happens.

Reason why he chose players from winning situations is to change the culture of what the team was at that point.

Well yeah but after a certain point talent needs to win out.

What "more talented players" did he miss out on?

His first pick was Hinrich (2003). It's unfortunate that the Bulls didn't have a higher pick that year, but Hinrich was better than everyone else picked after him (I guess you could argue that David West was better, but I wouldn't).

2004 he picked Ben Gordon and traded for the #7 pick (Luol Deng). I don't think he missed out on anyone after Deng. Maybe Igoudala, but was he that much better than Deng? I'm not sure if he was, but he was on better teams.

2005 no pick

2006: This is where he screwed up by trading Aldridge for Thomas. He also picked Thabo Sefolosha who was an okay role player.

2007: Joakim Noah. Who was better in that draft after pick #9?

2008: Rose

2009: James Johnson (okay player who didn't work out here) and Taj Gibon (good pick for #27). Yes, Jrue Holiday went one pick after Johnson, but that happens. Outside of Holiday the rest of that draft after #16 wasn't a big loss (keep in mind that they had Rose and weren't going to pick a point guard).

2010: The Bulls used #17 (Kevin Seraphin) to make cap room to try and get LeBron. They eventually used it on Boozer.

2011: Jimmy Butler at 30 and traded for Mirotic.

When did Gar start to take over? After 2011 the team didn't draft well for a few years, but it was always late picks. Teague at 29, Snell at 20 and then trading up for McDermott. Then Portis was good 22 and Denzel wasn't good at #14 (not the best draft, but Siakim went late and so did Dejounte Murray. That means most teams passed on those two).

This site does a better job of details about the Bulls picks:
https://www.nba.com/bulls/news/look-back-past-15-years-bulls-draft-night

[MrSparkle]

Ah yes, Pax the GM chess master. His playoff results are astounding.

[prolific passer]

Ah yes, Pax the GM chess master. His playoff results are astounding.

Better than akme.

[kulaz3000]

Ah yes, Pax the GM chess master. His playoff results are astounding.

Better than akme.

The jury is still out on AKME, as much as they've faltered recently. My biggest gripe with AKME, isn't their lack of moves per se, but more so that after making quick and decisive moves to build the roster (which was a positive), when it failed due to a pivotal cog (Ball) in making this team work went down with injury, they were looking for bandaid fixes instead of pivoting when they knew the severity of Ball's injury. Paxson had some really shocking moments himself, but had some really good periods also. I'll tell you one thing for certain, there is no way that Paxson or Gar would have drafted Patrick, just due to his passive personality alone.

Point being, it didn't take them long to rebuild this roster and reshape the franchise in less than a year, so they have the potential to do it again if they choose to, I'm just not confident that they will actually go that route, and continue to work on the fringes, which all signs are pointing to that happening. But let's see, this off season is going to be huge for this front office.