Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[PJSteven22]

There are a lot of 6'8 guys and taller in the league. Most of them don't average 7 rebounds. Patrick Williams is about the same size, heavier and averages 4. You just don't want to give him any credit for his actual NBA accomplishments. Rather point out how he gets rebounds and how he gets assists and ignore the fact that he gets them.

You keep talking about a miniscule fraction of his career. His last playoffs. He averaged 25 minutes all season. 31 minutes the two seasons before. He's averaging 29 minutes with us.

I literally said he’s a good rebounder and passer. The fact that he can’t shoot or penetrate or score hurts his playmaker so it negates his passing a bit.

Regardless he got his minutes cut by a good amount in the postseason. I’m harping on the postseason because that’s when team are actually dialed in. If they are guarding him like he’s Tony Allen. He’s hurting the offense. Also relentlessly attacking him on defense. The playoffs are kind of important.

When they benched him in the playoff they lost!! At a higher rat than when they started him. And it's still a small fraction of the year. I don't know where you're getting 18 minutes in the playoffs, didn't he start every game except those last two they lost? Since playoffs are important, they started him most of the playoffs too. Or are only the last two games of the playoffs in a three year career important? That's representative of how he's viewed? And again, a $18-25 mill player should not be expected to be the best or second best player on the team. On a good team, lot of 4th-5th best players are making that.

My presumption is not that he's a current star, but that he has value and has shown real world value. Consider this: before the season started, he was looking for $30 mill/season. Believe me, that number didn't come from nowhere. His agent gauged the free agency landscape, made some calls, crunched some numbers, and came up with a professional valuation. I don't think he gets that now, or is expecting that. I also don't think his agent was off by so much and he settles for half that.

I got 18 minutes from basketball reference. He essentially got the bogans treatment because the coach didn’t trust him. Look it up yourself

They partially lost because of Giddey and they didn’t have the best player in that series. You conveniently left that out. Agents make misevaluations on their clients all the time. It’s laughable that he’d be worth 30 million annually. The problem is that he’s not even on the level of good 4th or 5th starter. Worry about getting the star first then the role players. It’s not the other way around

[WindyCityBorn]

I like Giddey. I hope he plays really well. I want him to sign a fair value deal. Which IMO is below $18M. And ideally 2Y. I'm confident he won't "earn" a bigger deal. I know the Bulls won't offer him this, but that's my 2C.

GarPax let Zach find a RFA offer; they matched 80/4, which ended up working out very well for Chicago until AK maxed him. Why does this current FO skip the RFA step? A team would have to be idiotic to offer the money that Chicago will extend Giddey to. It's going to be irritating when we have him on 100/4.

Pat was really overpaid in last year's market, which complicates things. He should be a $10M salary, tops. Had he taken the QO, he'd be lining up for the MLE.

Giddey is an interesting player, but he's not playing better than a very good MLE signing (like Caruso).

If AKME do the expected, we're gonna have something like this for salary structure:

Coby $25M+
Giddey $25M+
Pat $18M
Ayo $15M+

Gonna have over $80M on a core of role-players, and maybe a star / maybe not in Matas and the upcoming picks.

Coby will be traded before his contract is up. Giddey won’t get more than $20 million per. Ayo is probably worth $15 million. Pat is a sunk cost. Maybe he can rebound and be a good player. He seems to play better with less expectations on him.

[Infinity2152]

Josh Giddey doesn’t have an elite skill or trait whereas Zach had an elite trait. His best skill which his passing is limited in the half court because he’s can’t break down a defense and penetrate. Look at my list of top 15 PGs and tell me who is he going to be better than. If you look at my list you’ll realize that he doesn’t have the scoring ability to keep defenses honest. I’m going with my eyes on this one. He’s a meh player.

You're really going to say that averaging 7 assists and 7 rebounds from the guard position isn't elite? He has no elite skills or traits? All those $50 mill point guards that are considered elite, are most of them averaging over 7 assists? Especially relative to much higher usage. Point guards average 4.2 assists/gm this season. 7 is elite. 7 rebounds is most definitely elite from either guard position. Even more so because he's playing just under 29 minutes. If he got 34-36 minutes, we'd see triple doubles.

Trivia question: who's the last Chicago Bull to average over 7 assists? Derrick Rose in 2011?

Giddey right now is 12/7/7 guy that doesn’t dominate ball. The other players that stuff the stat(really only LeBron,?Joker and Luka) have the offense run completely through them. Obviously Giddey doesn’t have anywhere near their scoring ability, but you are correct he is top 5 passer and an rebounder for his position. It’s worth the investment to see how his scoring and defense progresses. The guy is only 23 are severely lacking in a young prospects. And we probably won’t get a better prospect than him the draft this season.

I would restart with Buzelis, Ayo, Smith and Giddey and move the rest. Coby I’m split on, but I feel like he has had enough opportunities to show what he can do. He just isn’t consistent enough to be a top scoring option after what 6 seasons? And that’s really all he brings to the table.

This is pretty much where I'm at. The Bulls aren't really in the position where their main focus should be money and value contracts. We're looking to be bad this year and next, talking about taking on bad contracts. Slightly overpaying our young guys vs losing them for nothing should not be an option. Worry about their contracts when we're looking to add a star. Pat's contract looks bad now, it could look good or at least neutral in a year and a half. Same with Giddey. Contract year value is not as important as value in years two three and four with young players. Pat's locked up, bench him till he plays himself back into the starting lineup, if he can. We have the rest of this season and next entire season before we need to worry about money. Zach and Debo are gone. Vuc is next, and other guys will be off the books summer 2026.

[dpucane]

He’s a 20mm/year 6th man who’s going to make 35mm/year because AK needs to treat him like a core piece to keep his job. Grim stuff.

[MrSparkle]

He’s a 20mm/year 6th man who’s going to make 35mm/year because AK needs to treat him like a core piece to keep his job. Grim stuff.

That's the thing, right?

AK traded his #1 asset for an expiring RFA, looking to get paid 2X his worth. Somehow almost every RFA in the league has zero leverage against their team, but I know that AKME are going to get cornered into an overpay, because it'd be a net-zero after dumping Caruso.

One high-risk/medium-reward gamble after another defines the AKME regime.

(And "medium" is generous...)

[sco]

He’s a 20mm/year 6th man who’s going to make 35mm/year because AK needs to treat him like a core piece to keep his job. Grim stuff.

That's the thing, right?

AK traded his #1 asset for an expiring RFA, looking to get paid 2X his worth. Somehow almost every RFA in the league has zero leverage against their team, but I know that AKME are going to get cornered into an overpay, because it'd be a net-zero after dumping Caruso.

One high-risk/medium-reward gamble after another defines the AKME regime.

(And "medium" is generous...)

I'm more optimistic after the Ball, White and Ayo signings that AK will automatically overpay.

I'm also a bit confused how we are having simultaneous conversations about Giddey's lack of value as a player and the assumption that he's gonna cost $20M+. Even Pat, who, IMO at the time of his signing, had more value around the league than Giddey, only got $18M.

[jnrjr79]

He’s a 20mm/year 6th man who’s going to make 35mm/year because AK needs to treat him like a core piece to keep his job. Grim stuff.

He's not going to get $20M, let alone $35M.

[MrSparkle]

He’s a 20mm/year 6th man who’s going to make 35mm/year because AK needs to treat him like a core piece to keep his job. Grim stuff.

That's the thing, right?

AK traded his #1 asset for an expiring RFA, looking to get paid 2X his worth. Somehow almost every RFA in the league has zero leverage against their team, but I know that AKME are going to get cornered into an overpay, because it'd be a net-zero after dumping Caruso.

One high-risk/medium-reward gamble after another defines the AKME regime.

(And "medium" is generous...)

I'm more optimistic after the Ball, White and Ayo signings that AK will automatically overpay.

I'm also a bit confused how we are having simultaneous conversations about Giddey's lack of value as a player and the assumption that he's gonna cost $20M+. Even Pat, who, IMO at the time of his signing, had more value around the league than Giddey, only got $18M.

I don't think Pat (before he inked the 90M) had more value than Giddey...Nor does he now, obviously.

10/4/1
missed half his NBA games
Zero x-factor/intangibles besides competent perimeter defense

12/7/7
Elite passing touch
Actually averages more steals (1.1 vs. 0.8), even in blocks (0.6)

Pat is a total chump, deer in headlights. Giddey is struggling and has physical flaws, but is more skilled and higher IQ.

[Infinity2152]

Question: If AK is so bad at negotiating extensions, why are Coby and Ayo signed to value deals? He overpaid Vuc, yet apparently there were offers from other teams to take Vuc at that same contract and send us picks. Overpaid Zach, but we just got a 2025 first round pick for him. Nobody's trying to overpay players, these fans who think they have a better idea of market value than pro agents and GM's are delusional. Players usually get signed around their market value at the time. They may decline like Pat and that contract looks worse, but that wasn't his value at contract signing. They can also recover value like Zach and Vuc have.

Was a professional real estate agent and appraiser. Can tell you virtually no layperson would be able to give nearly as accurate an appraisal of market value as a pro. And that's assuming the same resources, pros have access to far more information. Almost every homeowner is wildly incorrect about the value of their own home.

All to say without having a realistic view of his actual market value, which could change by the summer, doesn't make sense to b**ch about a contract that's more than you expect. Your expectations could be seriously off. The same people who ae talking about how crappy he is also seem to assume he'll receive a large contract. Why would both things be true, just AK hate? From what I see, he's basically extended three young players, Pat, Coby and Ayo. Two were value contracts, one looks like an overpay at this point but not a ridiculous one. The range for Pat was probably between $16 mill and $20 mill. And that's based on my random fan guess without much knowledge, lmao!

[CROBulls]

Question: If AK is so bad at negotiating extensions, why are Coby and Ayo signed to value deals? He overpaid Vuc, yet apparently there were offers from other teams to take Vuc at that same contract and send us picks. Overpaid Zach, but we just got a 2025 first round pick for him. Nobody's trying to overpay players, these fans who think they have a better idea of market value than pro agents and GM's are delusional. Players usually get signed around their market value at the time. They may decline like Pat and that contract looks worse, but that wasn't his value at contract signing. They can also recover value like Zach and Vuc have.

Was a professional real estate agent and appraiser. Can tell you virtually no layperson would be able to give nearly as accurate an appraisal of market value as a pro. And that's assuming the same resources, pros have access to far more information. Almost every homeowner is wildly incorrect about the value of their own home.

All to say without having a realistic view of his actual market value, which could change by the summer, doesn't make sense to b**th about a contract that's more than you expect. Your expectations could be seriously off. The same people who ae talking about how crappy he is also seem to assume he'll receive a large contract. Why would both things be true, just AK hate? From what I see, he's basically extended three young players, Pat, Coby and Ayo. Two were value contracts, one looks like an overpay at this point but not a ridiculous one. The range for Pat was probably between $16 mill and $20 mill. And that's based on my random fan guess without much knowledge, lmao!

Ayo had bad sophomore year. He went from having decent rookie year to his stats and percentages decreasing alot and while his 3rd year improved back to his rookie year, league was aware this jump only improved to his rookie year and did not further improve. So nobody was looking at 3rd year as anything but bouncing back and not necessarily takin next step. So nobody was offering him big money in FA.

White is even more shady. He had 2 decent and 2 terrible years during rookie deal. He was playing bad enough where Ayo was better player as a rookie than him and he was in 3rd year. And in next year Ayo despite being bad, White was even worse. White getting even extension was suprise.

It was more that Bulls would need to chose to extend either Coby or Ayo. And they extended both because both sucked enough. White more than Ayo.

[MrSparkle]

Question: If AK is so bad at negotiating extensions, why are Coby and Ayo signed to value deals? He overpaid Vuc, yet apparently there were offers from other teams to take Vuc at that same contract and send us picks. Overpaid Zach, but we just got a 2025 first round pick for him. Nobody's trying to overpay players, these fans who think they have a better idea of market value than pro agents and GM's are delusional. Players usually get signed around their market value at the time. They may decline like Pat and that contract looks worse, but that wasn't his value at contract signing. They can also recover value like Zach and Vuc have.

Was a professional real estate agent and appraiser. Can tell you virtually no layperson would be able to give nearly as accurate an appraisal of market value as a pro. And that's assuming the same resources, pros have access to far more information. Almost every homeowner is wildly incorrect about the value of their own home.

All to say without having a realistic view of his actual market value, which could change by the summer, doesn't make sense to b**ch about a contract that's more than you expect. Your expectations could be seriously off. The same people who ae talking about how crappy he is also seem to assume he'll receive a large contract. Why would both things be true, just AK hate? From what I see, he's basically extended three young players, Pat, Coby and Ayo. Two were value contracts, one looks like an overpay at this point but not a ridiculous one. The range for Pat was probably between $16 mill and $20 mill. And that's based on my random fan guess without much knowledge, lmao!

3Y MLE contracts for young players barely hitting league average play aren’t value deals. They’re trials. They played like crap the season before the ink. Now that they’re expiring, they’re almost worthless trade assets, besides cap relief. We’ll see what money they want next year.

A 4Y deal with club option would’ve been a killer deal.

[jnrjr79]

Question: If AK is so bad at negotiating extensions, why are Coby and Ayo signed to value deals? He overpaid Vuc, yet apparently there were offers from other teams to take Vuc at that same contract and send us picks. Overpaid Zach, but we just got a 2025 first round pick for him.

A few things on this. The critique that AK is a bad negotiator is not limited to extensions, but also to trades, where he has a bit of an odd history about including outgoing 2nds while often not seeing to get good inbound draft capital. On extensions, the biggest critique is his most recent one, which you omit. The Williams deal is viewed as particularly bad because it seemed to be well above market value and Patrick had shown enough motor and health problems to give you serious concerns about locking him in long-term. It appeared to be the classic move of overvaluing a guy you overdrafted to justify having made the pick.

The Ayo and Coby deals were good and I think most people view it that way, though there are no bird rights, so decisions are going to have to be made on those guys soon.

I don't think a ton of people are critical of the Zach signing, as it was a bit of a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. And note it took Zach years to rehabilitate his value (both from his play and from his deal just being shorter) to the point where you wouldn't have to attach assets to him to move him. I'm still fine with the signing, though.

Vooch is the same deal - he's had a negative asset value from the time he signed that contract until this year, where his miraculous shooting improvement combined with less money on his deal seems to have given him a positive value. And the Bulls did not capitalize on his positive asset value at the deadline, which stings. If they get something for him in return this offseason, then great. There's definite concern if his shooting regression continues, it'll hurt his value, but there may be more trade partners and flexibility in the offseason, so we'll see.

Was a professional real estate agent and appraiser.

I'm admittedly impressed by the argument that AK's history as a realtor makes him a good NBA GM.

All to say without having a realistic view of his actual market value, which could change by the summer, doesn't make sense to b**ch about a contract that's more than you expect. Your expectations could be seriously off. The same people who ae talking about how crappy he is also seem to assume he'll receive a large contract. Why would both things be true, just AK hate? From what I see, he's basically extended three young players, Pat, Coby and Ayo. Two were value contracts, one looks like an overpay at this point but not a ridiculous one. The range for Pat was probably between $16 mill and $20 mill. And that's based on my random fan guess without much knowledge, lmao!

I never really understand the "let's just leave it to the professionals" sentiment here. What's the point of the message board in that event?

[Infinity2152]

Question: If AK is so bad at negotiating extensions, why are Coby and Ayo signed to value deals? He overpaid Vuc, yet apparently there were offers from other teams to take Vuc at that same contract and send us picks. Overpaid Zach, but we just got a 2025 first round pick for him. Nobody's trying to overpay players, these fans who think they have a better idea of market value than pro agents and GM's are delusional. Players usually get signed around their market value at the time. They may decline like Pat and that contract looks worse, but that wasn't his value at contract signing. They can also recover value like Zach and Vuc have.

Was a professional real estate agent and appraiser. Can tell you virtually no layperson would be able to give nearly as accurate an appraisal of market value as a pro. And that's assuming the same resources, pros have access to far more information. Almost every homeowner is wildly incorrect about the value of their own home.

All to say without having a realistic view of his actual market value, which could change by the summer, doesn't make sense to b**ch about a contract that's more than you expect. Your expectations could be seriously off. The same people who ae talking about how crappy he is also seem to assume he'll receive a large contract. Why would both things be true, just AK hate? From what I see, he's basically extended three young players, Pat, Coby and Ayo. Two were value contracts, one looks like an overpay at this point but not a ridiculous one. The range for Pat was probably between $16 mill and $20 mill. And that's based on my random fan guess without much knowledge, lmao!

3Y MLE contracts for young players barely hitting league average play aren’t value deals. They’re trials. They played like crap the season before the ink. Now that they’re expiring, they’re almost worthless trade assets, besides cap relief. We’ll see what money they want next year.

A 4Y deal with club option would’ve been a killer deal.

Coby's and Ayo's deals are called value deals by almost everybody. These semantics games are tiresome. Both had and have trade value, and a 3 year contract is not a trial. A 1yr and 1 option year is a trial. 4 years with team option would certainly be better, in hindsight. I seriously doubt we can't get a first or young player for Coby, and at least 2 seconds for Ayo. Doubt they trade Ayo anyway, so his trade value is pretty moot, more about the value they re-sign him at and can he bounce back. He has looked solid for long stretches of his short career.

We're getting 19pts/gm from a player making $12 mill on his second contract, we're getting good value right now. And you do know Ayo signed to 3 yrs/$21 mill? That's well below MLE. Coby's also making less than MLE, next season MLE is $13.5 mill.

The irony is if AK had signed Coby to $18 Mill and Pat to $12 mill, most of the league probably considers those fair value at this point.

[meekrab]

Pat is a total chump, deer in headlights. Giddey is struggling and has physical flaws, but is more skilled and higher IQ.

What is Giddey 'struggling' at? He had some trouble adapting to the new team early in the year (wasn't helped by playing all his minutes with Patrick Casper Williams and Zach and Vuc who knew they could get traded any minute) but he's been very solid in calendar year 2025, hitting 37% on his 3s, nearly 7 assists per game and 7 rebounds with improved defense.

If we ship Vuc off for garbage and roll with Giddey Ayo Someone Buzelis and Smith as the starting lineup next year I think it'll be a much different look.

[PJSteven22]

Pat is a total chump, deer in headlights. Giddey is struggling and has physical flaws, but is more skilled and higher IQ.

What is Giddey 'struggling' at? He had some trouble adapting to the new team early in the year (wasn't helped by playing all his minutes with Patrick Casper Williams and Zach and Vuc who knew they could get traded any minute) but he's been very solid in calendar year 2025, hitting 37% on his 3s, nearly 7 assists per game and 7 rebounds with improved defense.

If we ship Vuc off for garbage and roll with Giddey Ayo Someone Buzelis and Smith as the starting lineup next year I think it'll be a much different look.

Scoring and finishing mainly

[MrSparkle]

Question: If AK is so bad at negotiating extensions, why are Coby and Ayo signed to value deals? He overpaid Vuc, yet apparently there were offers from other teams to take Vuc at that same contract and send us picks. Overpaid Zach, but we just got a 2025 first round pick for him. Nobody's trying to overpay players, these fans who think they have a better idea of market value than pro agents and GM's are delusional. Players usually get signed around their market value at the time. They may decline like Pat and that contract looks worse, but that wasn't his value at contract signing. They can also recover value like Zach and Vuc have.

Was a professional real estate agent and appraiser. Can tell you virtually no layperson would be able to give nearly as accurate an appraisal of market value as a pro. And that's assuming the same resources, pros have access to far more information. Almost every homeowner is wildly incorrect about the value of their own home.

All to say without having a realistic view of his actual market value, which could change by the summer, doesn't make sense to b**ch about a contract that's more than you expect. Your expectations could be seriously off. The same people who ae talking about how crappy he is also seem to assume he'll receive a large contract. Why would both things be true, just AK hate? From what I see, he's basically extended three young players, Pat, Coby and Ayo. Two were value contracts, one looks like an overpay at this point but not a ridiculous one. The range for Pat was probably between $16 mill and $20 mill. And that's based on my random fan guess without much knowledge, lmao!

3Y MLE contracts for young players barely hitting league average play aren’t value deals. They’re trials. They played like crap the season before the ink. Now that they’re expiring, they’re almost worthless trade assets, besides cap relief. We’ll see what money they want next year.

A 4Y deal with club option would’ve been a killer deal.

Coby's and Ayo's deals are called value deals by almost everybody. These semantics games are tiresome. Both had and have trade value, and a 3 year contract is not a trial. A 1yr and 1 option year is a trial. 4 years with team option would certainly be better, in hindsight. I seriously doubt we can't get a first or young player for Coby, and at least 2 seconds for Ayo. Doubt they trade Ayo anyway, so his trade value is pretty moot, more about the value they re-sign him at and can he bounce back. He has looked solid for long stretches of his short career.

We're getting 19pts/gm from a player making $12 mill on his second contract, we're getting good value right now. And you do know Ayo signed to 3 yrs/$21 mill? That's well below MLE. Coby's also making less than MLE, next season MLE is $13.5 mill.

The irony is if AK had signed Coby to $18 Mill and Pat to $12 mill, most of the league probably considers those fair value at this point.

We’re sub-500 and Coby’s PER is worse than Tre Jones. He has had a bad season! He’s scoring 19 ppg because the team sucks!

These aren’t semantics! I’d rather let Devin Dotson play on the vet min and have a top-4 pick!

If Coby had value, then he would’ve netted a good asset at the deadline.

[Infinity2152]

Question: If AK is so bad at negotiating extensions, why are Coby and Ayo signed to value deals? He overpaid Vuc, yet apparently there were offers from other teams to take Vuc at that same contract and send us picks. Overpaid Zach, but we just got a 2025 first round pick for him.

A few things on this. The critique that AK is a bad negotiator is not limited to extensions, but also to trades, where he has a bit of an odd history about including outgoing 2nds while often not seeing to get good inbound draft capital. On extensions, the biggest critique is his most recent one, which you omit. The Williams deal is viewed as particularly bad because it seemed to be well above market value and Patrick had shown enough motor and health problems to give you serious concerns about locking him in long-term. It appeared to be the classic move of overvaluing a guy you overdrafted to justify having made the pick.

The Ayo and Coby deals were good and I think most people view it that way, though there are no bird rights, so decisions are going to have to be made on those guys soon.

I don't think a ton of people are critical of the Zach signing, as it was a bit of a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation. And note it took Zach years to rehabilitate his value (both from his play and from his deal just being shorter) to the point where you wouldn't have to attach assets to him to move him. I'm still fine with the signing, though.

Vooch is the same deal - he's had a negative asset value from the time he signed that contract until this year, where his miraculous shooting improvement combined with less money on his deal seems to have given him a positive value. And the Bulls did not capitalize on his positive asset value at the deadline, which stings. If they get something for him in return this offseason, then great. There's definite concern if his shooting regression continues, it'll hurt his value, but there may be more trade partners and flexibility in the offseason, so we'll see.

Was a professional real estate agent and appraiser.

I'm admittedly impressed by the argument that AK's history as a realtor makes him a good NBA GM.

All to say without having a realistic view of his actual market value, which could change by the summer, doesn't make sense to b**ch about a contract that's more than you expect. Your expectations could be seriously off. The same people who ae talking about how crappy he is also seem to assume he'll receive a large contract. Why would both things be true, just AK hate? From what I see, he's basically extended three young players, Pat, Coby and Ayo. Two were value contracts, one looks like an overpay at this point but not a ridiculous one. The range for Pat was probably between $16 mill and $20 mill. And that's based on my random fan guess without much knowledge, lmao!

I never really understand the "let's just leave it to the professionals" sentiment here. What's the point of the message board in that event?

I didn't omit Pat. I specifically mentioned his contract looks like an overpay at the end. And somebody just posted that Coby and Ayo aren't value deals. All statements aren't directed at you. The point was that three major young player re-signings. Two look very good, one looks bad now but that's TBD. It's the first half season of a four year contract. 2 out of 3 is still not bad.

And I'm not saying "leave it to the professionals" and don't have an opinion. I'm talking about the fact that many people in here ridicule the professionals. If you're a professional in any field for 20 years or more, you know the distinct likelihood the 20-year pro with superior resources will usually have the superior judgement in most professional scenarios. Lot of comments go back and forth here, and not everybody is respectful. Many are insulting, rude and opinionated. As in my opinion is the only one that matters.

The pessimism in here is often draining. Try to fight back sometimes by bringing in some light. Already depressing enough we're sucking the rest of this season. We're cheering to lose. Bro. Looking at maybe trying to be good two years from now.

[Jcool0]

17 points on 8 shots tonight.

[Chi town]

17 points on 8 shots tonight.

Game Worst -29

Giddey struggles against athleticism.

[NecessaryEvil]

Send him to the Spurs for their lower first rounder