othawhitemeat wrote:TheSuzerain wrote:DuckIII wrote:
High floor players in the late teens are not a negative. It also doesn’t mean the ceiling is inadequate at that range. Plus having an outstanding mid range game isn’t a negative unless it’s the only positive, which here it is not. In the toughest conference in college basketball he’s a 3 level scorer and has been a clutch-basket-getting-iso-scoring stud for two straight years.
I’m not going to pretend Ayo has superstar upside, he doesn’t. But he has “very good NBA player who can contribute to winning in multiple ways” upside and in that range would be a good get who I predict will end up playing above his draft position over the course of his career.
If your draft philosophy is “always take the highest upside player no matter what” the Ayo’s not your guy. Nor would have been Jimmy Butler or many others.
To add: I am an Illini fan so I’ve seen him a lot. Prior to this year I would have had him as a second round pick and despite Kofi’s big year and improved play I consider him at best a second round flier now and completely undrafted last year. My opinion is not based on homerism.
The only other potential “quality” NBA player on Illinois is Curbelo, and he’s still got a long way to go.
Butler had elite physical traits coming out, and that's a large part of upside.
And I do think upside is the most important thing when drafting. I don't see how it's a win to grab an average rotation guard in the draft, even if it's late in the 1st. You can sign those guys in FA every year for cheap.
I think people adjust expectations for later picks according to the expected value of those picks (median outcome). I think that's the wrong way to think about it. Unless you land somebody worth more than MLE, I don't view it as all that useful of a pick.
Butler was known as a defensive glue guy that had good verticality and was built. He was mainly drafted as defensive wing play with hopes of being a 3-and-d guy. No one besides Jimmy thought he would be this good offensively. However, the mentality to me in Ayo makes me think he will succeed. There are good college players that aren't good NBA players either due to lack of physical talent or true motivation. Ayo is not an elite jumper, but has good body mass, is fast, and not a slouch defensively while being elite in terms of motivation. To me, Ayo is going to have that moment like at minimum like a Shuan Livingston or Brogdon type careers where he makes winning plays while also providing a good player for a team (not superstar, but good player).
Nobody expected Jimmy to be this good. But the reason he became a star is that he added a bunch of offensive skills on top of a 6'8" strong/athletic frame. He's not a star without both of those things. If you give Butler's offensive skills to someone of Ayo's physical characteristics, you don't have a star. And I doubt Ayo will even attain Butler's level of skill in terms of handling/playmaking.
Shaun Livingston is a pretty middling player. He's also 6'7" with long arms.
Brogdon's value is mostly related to being a knockdown shooter in Milwaukee. I'm not convinced that he's all that valuable in his increased role in Indiana.
But in any case, neither of those players sounds much like Ayo to me. E'Twaun Moore comes to mind as a reasonable comp for Ayo.
). 