burlydee wrote:Infinity2152 wrote:burlydee wrote:
The fact that they extended him has everything to do with it. They didn't save $25 mil. They "saved" 10 million (bc Smart makes $21 a year) and gave up a chance at a 1st round pick.
The fact that they extended him has NOTHING to do with his trade value at the time of the trade. Did he have his extension then? Did the extension even exist? Probably wasn't even discussed yet, since he was in trade talks in the first place. At the time he was not traded, he was a $21 mill expiring contract, right or wrong? Meaning adding in Smart plus the cost of the draft pick, At the time of the trade we were adding $22-24 mill of guaranteed money and probably a couple of seconds to have Marcus Smart and the 18th pick. Given that they got 2 seconds plus expirings in their actual trade, refuse to believe they weren't asking for seconds from us unless somebody shows definitive proof of the trade offer.
His "value at the time of the trade?" They extended him the same week they decided not to trade him. From a brief internet search, it looks like they announced the trade the day before the deadline.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2025/02/bulls-lonzo-ball-agree-to-two-year-extension.html#:~:text=The%20second%20year%20of%20the,has%20enjoyed%20a%20successful%20return.
I was hoping it was part of some plan to chase his brother but it really just looks like they misread the value here.
This is actually my biggest concern with AK and my biggest reason I believe he should be fired. He doesn't just misread talent evaluations, we all do. He fails to update his priors based on new info. He did it with Vuc, with Pat and now Ball.
I like Ball. But for a rebuilding team, I think a pick in the teens (which is what it became) is much better value. And he should have known it at the time. That Memphis pick is 6 picks behind the Bulls. 6! He got a get out of jail free card, and blew it.
What I'm saying is, clearly you don't see Ball as a viable player. At all. Not worth $10 mill. At all. The Bulls feel he is worth $10 mill. But they surely hadn't negotiated his extension with him on the trade block. Like, this is the extension we'll give you, unless we trade you this week? There's still $11.6 mill left from the money Smart makes this year, plus $2-3 mill for the rookie. Like I said, that amount allows you to re-sign a player like Tre Jones or any available $10 defensive wing that's available. Or space to trade for them. I know every pick has a chance but what are you really expecting from the 18th pick? You could strike gold, but you could also strike gold, maybe more easily, signing a young player for $13.6 mill that's underrated and has already proven he can play in the league.
And if seconds were included, that shifts the balance even more. That late first had a better chance of success than one second, but probably not much more than the combined chances with two seconds.
Is the player you get at 18 likely to be better than the best player you can trade for or sign in free agency with $13.6 mill and a second or two?
Real talk, we have a lot of young guys. Our core guys, Matas, Giddey, and White are all young. Probably adding a rookie this year. Williams. Smith. Jones. Ayo. Phillips. Terry. I see late draft picks as probable role players, would rather get some vet stars in FA or trade. Not opposed to adding picks, but they're not the Holy Grail for me. At all. Teams are trading 5 picks and 5 picks swaps in trades, and 3 for 1 for first round picks. Don't have the same gloss, lol.