Dresden wrote:One thing Cowley is forgetting regarding tanking, is the fact that tanking teams do have to play each other, and that's what will determine the final draft order. I think we can assume that none of the tank teams will beat any non-tank teams the rest of the year (altho DAL did just that a few days ago, so it could happen, just not likely). So it comes down to what happens between the tanking teams.
Bulls have around 7 more games with tanking teams. I assume most tanking teams will have around the number as well. That's a lot of games- maybe around 25-30 wins all told that will be doled out among the 8 tanking teams. It could get quite comical near the end, seeing the lengths teams will go to, to maintain their draft position.
Games against bottom 8 teams:
ATL(4): Phx, Chi, @Sac, Orl
BKN (6): @Sac, Dal, Mem, @Orl, @Chi, Chi,
DAL(6): @Chi, Mem, @Bkn, @Sac, @Orl, Phx
MEM (7): Phx, @Orl, @Chi, @Dal, Chi, @Bkn, Sac
ORL(6): @Sac, Phx, Bkn, Chi, @Atl, Dal,
PHX(5):@Mem, @Atl, @Orl, Sac, @Dal
SAC(6): Bkn, Orl, Atl, Dal, @Phx, @Mem
Bulls(7): Dal, Mem, @Atl, @Mem, @Orl, Bkn, @Bkn
If you assume home teams win, and none of these teams win ANY other games (or they all win the same amount of other games), then you end up with:
ATL: 3-1, 21 wins
BKN: 3-3, 23 wins
DAL: 2-4, 21 wins
MEM: 3-4, 21 wins
ORL: 3-2, 21 wins
PHX: 1-4, 19 wins
SAC: 4-2, 22 wins
Bulls: 3-4, 23 wins
In that scenario, Bulls end up in 7th, tied with BKN. However if Bulls can lose all of their tank games, they'll be in 2d. The real keys are the 2 Memphis and the 2 BKN. Those get them 6th.