Lauri:' I can make the comeback'

[cjbulls]

The only person I’ve seen analyze this RFA class is Hollinger (former Grizzlies exec and stats-based analyst). His numbers-based analysis pegged Lauri’s value at 18.1, which is interesting to me only because I would think numbers wouldn’t favor him.

Lauri Markkanen, Chicago — $18,177,306

I still think Markkanen is a better player than we saw from him last season, although the injury situation is getting a bit concerning. Nonetheless, this price feels eminently fair. On a four-year deal it would pay Markkanen just north of $80 million. He’s young enough to provide some upside that he’ll outrun this contract, and the downside seems limited by the fact that stretch bigs aren’t going out of style any time soon.

Also, note that the Bulls’ cap sheet is clean enough that they should almost certainly do a declining money deal with Markkanen, paying him a big 2021-22 salary but with 8 percent year-to-year decreases.

https://theathletic.com/2194510/2020/11/13/contract-extensions-what-bam-tatum-fox-and-rest-of-class-of-2017-are-worth/?amp

[League Circles]

Yeah this is the Butler situation again, but unlike Jimmy, Lauri is just coming off a down year AND I don't think he has the same work ethic that Jimmy had where he locked himself in the gym all summer without cable and internet (to be fair, very few do).

The Bulls should've extended Jimmy but ended up missing out on the discount and had to pay him the max. It's a different front office now, but if you can get a deal done for $15/$16M per, you do it. If he bounces back, you have a value long term contract that still allows you to improve the team. If he doesn't, he's young enough that you should be able to move him to another team who think they can revitalize his production. There are win-now teams who can use a stretch 4 like Lauri where he can be a 3rd/4th option in the starting lineup with guys who can handle (Jimmy's Heat comes to mind).

Jimmy was actually coming off of a down year too. Atrocious shooting/scoring numbers.

[Louri]

They really need to try to get an extension done instead of letting him become RFA. Next year’s free agency is gonna have many teams with a lot of cap space in anticiption of all these top stars but nobody to spend it on.

Lauri’s gonna be offered the max by somebody, and 20M/yr will look like a discount.

Really ? and which are those NBA teams which will pay for Lauri 20 / 20+ million per year or give near a max contract ?
Are those teams Lakers, Clippers, Heat, Mavericks, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Kings, Hawks, Jazz, Raptors, 76ers, Pacers, Nets, Hornets, Wizards, Pelicans, Knicks, Suns, Celtics, Magic, Rockets, City-Thunder, Warriors, Grizzlies, Pistons, Wizards, Trailblazers, Cavaliers or Bucks ?

And what are the facts where that yours estimate of Lauri's 20 / 20+ million USD market value is based on ?
Only team who might be enough stupid to pay for Lauri about 20 / 20+ million USD per year
without seeing his 3rd year regression in NBA is some rich euroleague team.

Tarmo might give few dollars.

[ZOMG]

From your list, outside of Favors, Tyus, and Jones Jr., I'd take all of them and add the following for players I'd consider taking over Lauri at $15-20million:

Christian Wood
Marcus Morris (last year)
Markeif Morris (last year)
Carmelo Anthony
Enes Kanter
Frank Kaminsky
Dewayne Dedmond
Ilyasova
Wilson Chandler
Skal Labissiere

And this isn't saying these players are more talented than Lauri, but if all he can be counted on is to hit some spot up jumpers (not consistently) then I think we can use that money to better use and still get comparable production out of those players.

Did you watch the final PS game?

I did. I also watched the other 170 regular season games he played. Surely you aren't saying we should base the extension decision on 1 pre-season game?

No. But rookie extensions are always about potential too. It is a fact that last season, Lauri was used in a way that made him look extremely one-dimensional (AND he was injured... AND just had a bad year).

This season is going to be different. If Billy sticks to his guns and allows Markkanen to play like he did in the final PS game, he's gonna shine and this whole discussion and hand-wringing is going to seem insane in hindsight.

But make no mistake, he's going to need the ball and the shots and an offense that makes sense. That's not too much to ask, that's professional basketball.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Is the extension deadline midnight?

5pm CT.

[ZOMG]

The only person I’ve seen analyze this RFA class is Hollinger (former Grizzlies exec and stats-based analyst). His numbers-based analysis pegged Lauri’s value at 18.1, which is interesting to me only because I would think numbers wouldn’t favor him.

Lauri Markkanen, Chicago — $18,177,306

I still think Markkanen is a better player than we saw from him last season, although the injury situation is getting a bit concerning. Nonetheless, this price feels eminently fair. On a four-year deal it would pay Markkanen just north of $80 million. He’s young enough to provide some upside that he’ll outrun this contract, and the downside seems limited by the fact that stretch bigs aren’t going out of style any time soon.

Also, note that the Bulls’ cap sheet is clean enough that they should almost certainly do a declining money deal with Markkanen, paying him a big 2021-22 salary but with 8 percent year-to-year decreases.

https://theathletic.com/2194510/2020/11/13/contract-extensions-what-bam-tatum-fox-and-rest-of-class-of-2017-are-worth/?amp

Anti-Lauri brigade reaction:

[PaKii94]

Yeah this is the Butler situation again, but unlike Jimmy, Lauri is just coming off a down year AND I don't think he has the same work ethic that Jimmy had where he locked himself in the gym all summer without cable and internet (to be fair, very few do).

The Bulls should've extended Jimmy but ended up missing out on the discount and had to pay him the max. It's a different front office now, but if you can get a deal done for $15/$16M per, you do it. If he bounces back, you have a value long term contract that still allows you to improve the team. If he doesn't, he's young enough that you should be able to move him to another team who think they can revitalize his production. There are win-now teams who can use a stretch 4 like Lauri where he can be a 3rd/4th option in the starting lineup with guys who can handle (Jimmy's Heat comes to mind).

The big thing about Jimmy was that he was improving and adding skills to his game. When he was up for his contract, it was reasonable to assume that he would continue to do so.

Was he though? (He was but most people didn't think so). During his contract extension times, he had just come off his 2012-13 year for which the majority of it he was dealing with turf toe. On a superficial level was a sub par shooter, his defense seemed to have dropped, he didn't seem to have an offensive game and he was drawing less fouls (his other elite ability).

It's actually very similar to Lauri's situation.

Both players showed their potential in spurts during the tail end of their sophomore seasons.
Both had high fanbase expectations to take the next step in year 3
Both took a step back from their skillset due to injury/utilization in year 3
Both will use year 4 to bet on themselves for that big contract.

[PaKii94]

The only person I’ve seen analyze this RFA class is Hollinger (former Grizzlies exec and stats-based analyst). His numbers-based analysis pegged Lauri’s value at 18.1, which is interesting to me only because I would think numbers wouldn’t favor him.

Lauri Markkanen, Chicago — $18,177,306

I still think Markkanen is a better player than we saw from him last season, although the injury situation is getting a bit concerning. Nonetheless, this price feels eminently fair. On a four-year deal it would pay Markkanen just north of $80 million. He’s young enough to provide some upside that he’ll outrun this contract, and the downside seems limited by the fact that stretch bigs aren’t going out of style any time soon.

Also, note that the Bulls’ cap sheet is clean enough that they should almost certainly do a declining money deal with Markkanen, paying him a big 2021-22 salary but with 8 percent year-to-year decreases.

https://theathletic.com/2194510/2020/11/13/contract-extensions-what-bam-tatum-fox-and-rest-of-class-of-2017-are-worth/?amp

It's dependent on what you consider last year. If last year was his new baseline then yeah he's not worth big money. I personally believe last year was the bare minimum production you can get from him if you limit his utilization to "spot up shooter" and then add nagging injuries to the mix.

[sco]

The only person I’ve seen analyze this RFA class is Hollinger (former Grizzlies exec and stats-based analyst). His numbers-based analysis pegged Lauri’s value at 18.1, which is interesting to me only because I would think numbers wouldn’t favor him.

Lauri Markkanen, Chicago — $18,177,306

I still think Markkanen is a better player than we saw from him last season, although the injury situation is getting a bit concerning. Nonetheless, this price feels eminently fair. On a four-year deal it would pay Markkanen just north of $80 million. He’s young enough to provide some upside that he’ll outrun this contract, and the downside seems limited by the fact that stretch bigs aren’t going out of style any time soon.

Also, note that the Bulls’ cap sheet is clean enough that they should almost certainly do a declining money deal with Markkanen, paying him a big 2021-22 salary but with 8 percent year-to-year decreases.

https://theathletic.com/2194510/2020/11/13/contract-extensions-what-bam-tatum-fox-and-rest-of-class-of-2017-are-worth/?amp

Anti-Lauri brigade reaction:

Youtube video of Lauri's 3pt shot last season?

[coldfish]

Yeah this is the Butler situation again, but unlike Jimmy, Lauri is just coming off a down year AND I don't think he has the same work ethic that Jimmy had where he locked himself in the gym all summer without cable and internet (to be fair, very few do).

The Bulls should've extended Jimmy but ended up missing out on the discount and had to pay him the max. It's a different front office now, but if you can get a deal done for $15/$16M per, you do it. If he bounces back, you have a value long term contract that still allows you to improve the team. If he doesn't, he's young enough that you should be able to move him to another team who think they can revitalize his production. There are win-now teams who can use a stretch 4 like Lauri where he can be a 3rd/4th option in the starting lineup with guys who can handle (Jimmy's Heat comes to mind).

The big thing about Jimmy was that he was improving and adding skills to his game. When he was up for his contract, it was reasonable to assume that he would continue to do so.

Was he though? (He was but most people didn't think so). During his contract extension times, he had just come off his 2012-13 year for which the majority of it he was dealing with turf toe. On a superficial level was a sub par shooter, his defense seemed to have dropped, he didn't seem to have an offensive game and he was drawing less fouls (his other elite ability).

It's actually very similar to Lauri's situation.

Both players showed their potential in spurts during the tail end of their sophomore seasons.
Both had high fanbase expectations to take the next step in year 3
Both took a step back from their skillset due to injury/utilization in year 3
Both will use year 4 to bet on themselves for that big contract.

It looks like Lauri is going to go the Jimmy route and go into RFA. Hopefully he blows up like Jimmy did and its all good. I would rather pay a 20PER Lauri $25m per year next year than give a 14PER Lauri $20m this year.

[PaKii94]

The big thing about Jimmy was that he was improving and adding skills to his game. When he was up for his contract, it was reasonable to assume that he would continue to do so.

Was he though? (He was but most people didn't think so). During his contract extension times, he had just come off his 2012-13 year for which the majority of it he was dealing with turf toe. On a superficial level was a sub par shooter, his defense seemed to have dropped, he didn't seem to have an offensive game and he was drawing less fouls (his other elite ability).

It's actually very similar to Lauri's situation.

Both players showed their potential in spurts during the tail end of their sophomore seasons.
Both had high fanbase expectations to take the next step in year 3
Both took a step back from their skillset due to injury/utilization in year 3
Both will use year 4 to bet on themselves for that big contract.

It looks like Lauri is going to go the Jimmy route and go into RFA. Hopefully he blows up like Jimmy did and its all good. I would rather pay a 20PER Lauri $25m per year next year than give a 14PER Lauri $20m this year.

Well yeah I agree. The point of slightly overpaying now is to save money on a later date. I know they are nowhere near the same caliber of players but the fact that GSW was able to lock in Curry at such a team friendly contract when he was going through injury/consistency issues was what allowed them to continue to add talent to the roster even after Curry blew up. No way they get KD if Curry was on the max.

[FranchisePlayer]

I have an idea.
Lets change this threads title to Lauri Markkanen The Bust instead of Lauri i can make the comeback.
This thread has turned to unreadable bull and last 28-to 30 pages are mostly just bashing and **** talk about Lauri.

My eyes are so hurt of all this **** so i really can't read this crap any further anymore.
It also seems quite clear even all last hopes about so called comeback of Lauri are totally dead.

So lets agree together that Lauri busted and very near future he'll be out of NBA.
Merry Christmas to everyone.

Hard to think anyone, who doesn't hold a grudge against the Markksman, willing to go on record for such an asinine idea.

If healthy and he himself willling, Lauri "The Finnisher" Markkanen, will play 10 more years in NBA.

But yeah, a lot of unknowledgeable smack talk in the late pages of this thread. A new thread with a neutral title like "Lauri Markkanen 2020-2021 season" would be a killer so people wouldn't join the thread with an attitude.

You are totally free to believe and think whatever you want.
But even you can't deny that Lauri's regression last season caused more questions than it gave answers.
Or can you honestly say that Lauri had fine season?

Does the majority of players have a career where they've never had a disappointing season? No.
Have some future All-Star players had seasons where they've played under expectations? Yes so why can't a not All-Star do that.
Has the majority of players been coached by Boylen and been told to stand in the corner? No.
Does a disappointing season mean a player will be out of NBA in the "very near future"? No.
Are you allowed to be 5 years older than Markkanen and have, say, 3 very disappointing seasons in a row, yet have no trouble being on the roster? Yes.

This is not about what you believe in, those Q & A's reflect the reality and the percentages are on Lauri's side.

No matter how high YOU set the bar, there are many GM's trying to keep their jobs and are willing to sign players, who have had bumps in their career, but believe those players can improve their team. Markkanen is one of those.

Saying Markkanen will be out of NBA is an uneducated, gross hyperbole probably caused by some frustration and deep misunderstanding. Really an incomprehensive idea.

Since you're Finnish, I really really cannot understand why you're so keen to dig a hole under Markkanen. He has been and probably will be for some time the best basketball player your country has to offer. Enjoy the ride while it lasts.

[PaKii94]

Hard to think anyone, who doesn't hold a grudge against the Markksman, willing to go on record for such an asinine idea.

If healthy and he himself willling, Lauri "The Finnisher" Markkanen, will play 10 more years in NBA.

But yeah, a lot of unknowledgeable smack talk in the late pages of this thread. A new thread with a neutral title like "Lauri Markkanen 2020-2021 season" would be a killer so people wouldn't join the thread with an attitude.

You are totally free to believe and think whatever you want.
But even you can't deny that Lauri's regression last season caused more questions than it gave answers.
Or can you honestly say that Lauri had fine season?

Does the majority of players have a career where they've never had a disappointing season? No.
Have some future All-Star players had seasons where they've played under expectations? Yes so why can't a not All-Star do that.
Has the majority of players been coached by Boylen and been told to stand in the corner? No.
Does a disappointing season mean a player will be out of NBA in the "very near future"? No.
Are you allowed to be 5 years older than Markkanen and have, say, 3 very disappointing seasons in a row, yet have no trouble being on the roster? Yes.

This is not about what you believe in, those Q & A's reflect the reality and the percentages are on Lauri's side.

No matter how high YOU set the bar, there are many GM's trying to keep their jobs and are willing to sign players, who have had bumps in their career, but believe those players can improve their team. Markkanen is one of those.

Saying Markkanen will be out of NBA is an uneducated, gross hyperbole probably caused by some frustration and deep misunderstanding. Really an incomprehensive idea.

Since you're Finnish, I really really cannot understand why you're so keen to dig a hole under Markkanen. He has been and probably will be for some time the best basketball player your country has to offer. Enjoy the ride while it lasts.

I think Jip is being sarcastic/hyperbolic in his posts lol.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

The only person I’ve seen analyze this RFA class is Hollinger (former Grizzlies exec and stats-based analyst). His numbers-based analysis pegged Lauri’s value at 18.1, which is interesting to me only because I would think numbers wouldn’t favor him.

Lauri Markkanen, Chicago — $18,177,306

I still think Markkanen is a better player than we saw from him last season, although the injury situation is getting a bit concerning. Nonetheless, this price feels eminently fair. On a four-year deal it would pay Markkanen just north of $80 million. He’s young enough to provide some upside that he’ll outrun this contract, and the downside seems limited by the fact that stretch bigs aren’t going out of style any time soon.

Also, note that the Bulls’ cap sheet is clean enough that they should almost certainly do a declining money deal with Markkanen, paying him a big 2021-22 salary but with 8 percent year-to-year decreases.

https://theathletic.com/2194510/2020/11/13/contract-extensions-what-bam-tatum-fox-and-rest-of-class-of-2017-are-worth/?amp

It's confusing to me that Hollinger values Lauri at 18M and Anunoby at *only* 21M. There's a massive gulf between the two imo, the latter being a top 3 individual defender and a guy you can plug into just about any starting unit.

[FranchisePlayer]

You are totally free to believe and think whatever you want.
But even you can't deny that Lauri's regression last season caused more questions than it gave answers.
Or can you honestly say that Lauri had fine season?

Does the majority of players have a career where they've never had a disappointing season? No.
Have some future All-Star players had seasons where they've played under expectations? Yes so why can't a not All-Star do that.
Has the majority of players been coached by Boylen and been told to stand in the corner? No.
Does a disappointing season mean a player will be out of NBA in the "very near future"? No.
Are you allowed to be 5 years older than Markkanen and have, say, 3 very disappointing seasons in a row, yet have no trouble being on the roster? Yes.

This is not about what you believe in, those Q & A's reflect the reality and the percentages are on Lauri's side.

No matter how high YOU set the bar, there are many GM's trying to keep their jobs and are willing to sign players, who have had bumps in their career, but believe those players can improve their team. Markkanen is one of those.

Saying Markkanen will be out of NBA is an uneducated, gross hyperbole probably caused by some frustration and deep misunderstanding. Really an incomprehensive idea.

Since you're Finnish, I really really cannot understand why you're so keen to dig a hole under Markkanen. He has been and probably will be for some time the best basketball player your country has to offer. Enjoy the ride while it lasts.

I think Jip is being sarcastic/hyperbolic in his posts lol.

For a moment I thought so too but usually sarcasm isn't at it's best when repeating the same insults over and over again.

Besides, I wanted to provide some food for thought for others too.

[drosestruts]

Time for some Player A/Player B action.

Per game stats
Player A: 12.8 pts, 4.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 50% eFG, 31.6% 3P

Player B: 14.7 pts, 6.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 51.7% eFG, 34.4% 3P

Spoiler:

Player A is Kyle Kuzma who is getting $13M over the next three seasons.

Player B is Lauri. So I don't think you could reasonably offer less than Kuzmas deal if you want to be taken seriously so this rumored $11M deal is obviously a no from his side.

[dougthonus]

Gafford, Carter, Hutch, and even Porter are trash offensively they are a liability on offense. Cannot believe you mentioned them as alternatives when theres no solution if Lauri leaves. If your letting Lauri walk, you better tank properly for a top 5 pick for Suggs.

Why not read what I wrote and respond to that.

[PaKii94]

The only person I’ve seen analyze this RFA class is Hollinger (former Grizzlies exec and stats-based analyst). His numbers-based analysis pegged Lauri’s value at 18.1, which is interesting to me only because I would think numbers wouldn’t favor him.

Lauri Markkanen, Chicago — $18,177,306

I still think Markkanen is a better player than we saw from him last season, although the injury situation is getting a bit concerning. Nonetheless, this price feels eminently fair. On a four-year deal it would pay Markkanen just north of $80 million. He’s young enough to provide some upside that he’ll outrun this contract, and the downside seems limited by the fact that stretch bigs aren’t going out of style any time soon.

Also, note that the Bulls’ cap sheet is clean enough that they should almost certainly do a declining money deal with Markkanen, paying him a big 2021-22 salary but with 8 percent year-to-year decreases.

https://theathletic.com/2194510/2020/11/13/contract-extensions-what-bam-tatum-fox-and-rest-of-class-of-2017-are-worth/?amp

It's confusing to me that Hollinger values Lauri at 18M and Anunoby at *only* 21M. There's a massive gulf between the two imo, the latter being a top 3 individual defender and a guy you can plug into just about any starting unit.

I think Hollinger is very analytical oriented. and in that sense, high volume 3 point shooting carries more weight in this offense oriented NBA.

Obviously OG's defense is more valuable than Lauri overall but that's why they are close. People are severely underrating Lauri's current & future potential offensive output compared to OG.

So far in their careers (p36 minutes), Lauri scores more, rebounds more, assists more (<- and people already b*tch about Lauri's "lack of playmaking"), draws more fouls, is more proven with usage (and that usage is still low) while turning over the ball less. He is also much less assisted compared to OG (ie shot creation)

But OG got the defense to hang his hat on.

[PaKii94]

Time for some Player A/Player B action.

Per game stats
Player A: 12.8 pts, 4.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 50% eFG, 31.6% 3P

Player B: 14.7 pts, 6.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 51.7% eFG, 34.4% 3P

Spoiler:

Player A is Kyle Kuzma who is getting $13M over the next three seasons.

Player B is Lauri. So I don't think you could reasonably offer less than Kuzmas deal if you want to be taken seriously so this rumored $11M deal is obviously a no from his side.

Anyone who believes Kuzma is more valuable than even year 3 Lauri, I will immediately downgrade their opinions. Kuzma had the perfect opportunity to thrive as a third option on a champtionship team with a good structure in place and no defensive pressure and he produced less than a struggling, injured, under utilized Lauri in a down year.

[Chi town]

MIN tried to trade for Aaron Gordon.

Culver has looked good in preseason.

Pat can def play PF.