Moderators: HomoSapien, Ice Man, dougthonus, Michael Jackson, Tommy Udo 6 , kulaz3000, fleet, DASMACKDOWN, GimmeDat, RedBulls23, AshyLarrysDiaper, coldfish, Payt10
Ice Man wrote:Dez wrote:Okay was that tweet I saw about there being an error in the Georgia polls and Biden's lead went from 4,000 to 7,000 actually legit?
No.
dougthonus wrote:TheStig wrote:There is already a covid recession. It's just not in the stock market. Recessions typically don't last years. Things will be on the upswing in a couple of years. I don't think we'll be in a recession in 2024.
Who knows where things will be in 2024, you never know. The stock market is up 7% this year, people talk about economic recovery, but the stock market is actually up more this year than a "typical" year.
dice wrote:TheStig wrote:dice wrote:no, i'm not trying to tell you that, chuckles. i'm saying that if FDR was in obama's situation, he would have accomplished approximately the same for the progressive cause
it makes no damn sense to compare obama's situation (where we already HAVE social security) to some vacuum scenario where we don't
Doubtful. People forget that Obama had both houses of congress. He thought he could get everyone together and did the grand compromise, instead of the republicans ram it down the throat approach. And in the end they chewed him up and spit him out and blocked most of what he wanted to do. Other than giving grandiose speeches. No one can take that away from him. He's all talk.
It was an apt comparison.
we've been over this before. there's a thing called the filibuster in the united states senate. as such, 60 votes are effectively required to pass major legislation like health care reform. the democrats had 60 votes in the senate for mere weeks. joe lieberman was also virulently opposed to a public option. the "ram it down their throats" approach would have required the nuclear option, which the GOP has never employed for such purposes either. they DID use it to eliminate the filibuster for judicial appointments, which has allowed trump to nominate tons of unqualified federal judges. it was my hope that the democrats would take the senate, nuke the filibuster on all legislation, expand the supreme court and add a public option to obamacare...but that doesn't look like a possibility
there's absolutely no reason to believe that FDR would have magically wrangled 60 votes either. which is the point of this conversation. he HAD a supermajority of moderate democrats. obama had more liberal support, but didn't have the supermajority
FDR and obama were both pragmatists. FDR was criticized by the left for being too friendly to business, for being too harsh on striking workers, for failing to support ANTI-LYNCHING legislation as a political compromise. the guy put japanese-americans in internment camps. he ignored jesse owens after he won 4 gold medals in berlin. he waited to join the war against hitler until we were attacked...he had his own political realities to deal with, and was probably something of a racist
musiqsoulchild wrote:Ice Man wrote:musiqsoulchild wrote:Who in the Republican side can stand against Ivanka or Donald in 2024?
The central question is, will Donald Trump attempt to continue to dominate the GOP, or will he step aside, do the TV thing, and let others take the political lead? If it's the first, I think he will succeed. He will tweet-destroy anybody in the GOP who stands up to him. That doesn't strike me as a good long-term fate for the GOP, to have a kingmaker who crushes internal debate and dissension. But that surely is how it would be for at least the near term, given the loyalty that he commands with so many GOP voters.
Now if he does the TV thing and becomes another version of Fox & Friends, then he might help the GOP cause. But I'm not sure that his ego will accept being a cheerleader, as opposed to being the king or kingmaker.
Why cant he do both?
He can live telecast his /Ivankas preparation in the Republican primaries as a reality TV show.
He wins in EVERY possible way.
And it's not even his fault. Its OUR collective fault that this is the state of America.
Dresden wrote:People talking about Trump or his daughter running in 2024 forget that Trump may well be behind bars by then. He's facing serious charges in NY, and could be convicted of a crime that will see him do jail time. He may face other charges as well, now that he's no longer president.
PlayerUp wrote:Dresden wrote:People talking about Trump or his daughter running in 2024 forget that Trump may well be behind bars by then. He's facing serious charges in NY, and could be convicted of a crime that will see him do jail time. He may face other charges as well, now that he's no longer president.
We already discussed this yesterday. Nothing happens to top people in this nation. Whatever Biden did overseas is a thing of the past now as well. Besides that, Trump can just pardon himself now if he actually did wrong and that ends that.
Dresden wrote:PlayerUp wrote:Dresden wrote:People talking about Trump or his daughter running in 2024 forget that Trump may well be behind bars by then. He's facing serious charges in NY, and could be convicted of a crime that will see him do jail time. He may face other charges as well, now that he's no longer president.
We already discussed this yesterday. Nothing happens to top people in this nation. Whatever Biden did overseas is a thing of the past now as well. Besides that, Trump can just pardon himself now if he actually did wrong and that ends that.
No, he can't pardon himself for a state crime. NY is investigating him for tax, insurance, and business fraud, among other things. They've already been to the Supreme Court once, and you don't get that high unless it's a serious case, and unless Trump's lawyers can come up with a good reason, they are going to be forced to turn over 8 years of financial records, which could open Trump to all kinds os new charges as well.
As for elites never getting caught, Spiro Agnew had to resign as VP under Nixon for tax evasion. And Nixon himself might have gone to jail if Ford hadn't pardoned him.
Fantastik_Goat wrote:I turned 18 in 1992. This is the 8th presidential election I’ve voted in. In those 8 presidential contests, the republican candidate has only received the most votes 1 time. The republicans have seated 5 Supreme Court justices to 3 for the democrats in that time. And people are complaining that elections are rigged in favor of Democrats.
TheStig wrote:Ice Man wrote:MrFortune3 wrote:More to the point, candidates who lose re-election bids, never factor in afterwards.
Nixon kinda did, losing in 1960 as incumbent VP, then winning the Presidency in his 1968 comeback. Not the same thing, of course, but somewhat in that spirit. But ultimately the comparison fails because Nixon while running as a conventional politician while Trump lost while running as the leader of a personality movement. Trump is like no other President, so history isn't a very useful guide.
It's also worth noting we are speaking about ancient history here. In the last 24 years, all incumbents outside of Trump have won reelection. So this is not like something unknown. Biden himself has run for president 3 times. The first two times he didn't even get a delegate. Now he's president.
dougthonus wrote:TheStig wrote:There is already a covid recession. It's just not in the stock market. Recessions typically don't last years. Things will be on the upswing in a couple of years. I don't think we'll be in a recession in 2024.
Who knows where things will be in 2024, you never know. The stock market is up 7% this year, people talk about economic recovery, but the stock market is actually up more this year than a "typical" year.
TheStig wrote:dougthonus wrote:TheStig wrote:There is already a covid recession. It's just not in the stock market. Recessions typically don't last years. Things will be on the upswing in a couple of years. I don't think we'll be in a recession in 2024.
Who knows where things will be in 2024, you never know. The stock market is up 7% this year, people talk about economic recovery, but the stock market is actually up more this year than a "typical" year.
Yeah, they're buying all the corporate debt and mortgages. They got trillions to do so from the cares act.
But mainstreet and wall street are very disconnected. Tons of layoffs and hiring freezes.
PlayerUp wrote:Fantastik_Goat wrote:I turned 18 in 1992. This is the 8th presidential election I’ve voted in. In those 8 presidential contests, the republican candidate has only received the most votes 1 time. The republicans have seated 5 Supreme Court justices to 3 for the democrats in that time. And people are complaining that elections are rigged in favor of Democrats.
Republicans used to dominate politics prior to Clinton. Hollywood and pretty much everyone supported them. Things changed in the 90s under Clinton and ever since then the democratic party has been the party adapting to the rapidly changing US culture. The GOP needs a new identity and until they have one and adapt to the changing society they will continue to lose presidential elections.
Wingy wrote:TheStig wrote:Ice Man wrote:
Nixon kinda did, losing in 1960 as incumbent VP, then winning the Presidency in his 1968 comeback. Not the same thing, of course, but somewhat in that spirit. But ultimately the comparison fails because Nixon while running as a conventional politician while Trump lost while running as the leader of a personality movement. Trump is like no other President, so history isn't a very useful guide.
It's also worth noting we are speaking about ancient history here. In the last 24 years, all incumbents outside of Trump have won reelection. So this is not like something unknown. Biden himself has run for president 3 times. The first two times he didn't even get a delegate. Now he's president.
Feel like Ice Man nails it. Trump is an identity.
History means nothing. Not sure on TheStig’s sentiment above (hard to tell which side of the point that your point compliments), but I feel like I’m hearing pollsters when I see MF3’s post.
No matter how ridiculous it is...the cult base sees him as them. It’s like they see the Dems running against themselves, and orangey is their champion.
Unless he’s in jail, or in debilitatingly bad health, he’ll be the R nominee in 2024. Running on a “they stole the election from you” fervor.
Bullflip wrote:Rumors are circulating now that Melania will divorce him. This, along with all the lawsuits that become active after he leaves, will add to his problems. Will be interesting to see how Trump copes.
Dresden wrote:PlayerUp wrote:Fantastik_Goat wrote:I turned 18 in 1992. This is the 8th presidential election I’ve voted in. In those 8 presidential contests, the republican candidate has only received the most votes 1 time. The republicans have seated 5 Supreme Court justices to 3 for the democrats in that time. And people are complaining that elections are rigged in favor of Democrats.
Republicans used to dominate politics prior to Clinton. Hollywood and pretty much everyone supported them. Things changed in the 90s under Clinton and ever since then the democratic party has been the party adapting to the rapidly changing US culture. The GOP needs a new identity and until they have one and adapt to the changing society they will continue to lose presidential elections.
What do you mean by dominated? I find that a tenuous claim. And how far back do you want to go?
Dresden wrote:Wingy wrote:TheStig wrote:It's also worth noting we are speaking about ancient history here. In the last 24 years, all incumbents outside of Trump have won reelection. So this is not like something unknown. Biden himself has run for president 3 times. The first two times he didn't even get a delegate. Now he's president.
Feel like Ice Man nails it. Trump is an identity.
History means nothing. Not sure on TheStig’s sentiment above (hard to tell which side of the point that your point compliments), but I feel like I’m hearing pollsters when I see MF3’s post.
No matter how ridiculous it is...the cult base sees him as them. It’s like they see the Dems running against themselves, and orangey is their champion.
Unless he’s in jail, or in debilitatingly bad health, he’ll be the R nominee in 2024. Running on a “they stole the election from you” fervor.
I highly doubt it. He'll be 78 years old, and I would be surprised if he doesn't have some major health issues between now and then, given his lifestyle and diet. Not to mention that people will have moved on from him by then.