The Chicago Bulls select forward Patrick Williams #4 overall.

[transplant]

Patrick Williams is a player who most analysts think is a legitimate NBA prospect, but the new Bulls front office think is a great NBA prospect. That's why Williams was a 30-1 shot to be the 4th overall pick. In AK We Trust is going to be tested here.

[FriedRise]

I know it's just a highlight video and we're all so starved for some positivity and Bulls basketball, but you telling me the kid has a good looking 3, a midrange game, a fadeaway, can throw a bullet pass, plays above the rim, can handle the rock some, AND defense is his bread and butter?

OK AK, I see you.

[Benedict Miller]

A questionable pick by the new regime

[cjbulls]

Yes his upside is a ball dominant scorer/distributor. You can use Luka, Harden, LeBron or Westbrook if you want. He was at about 20/7/7 in the NBL last year. This is an argument about ceiling, not probable outcome. And it’s the reason the top 3 were who they were without much debate.

To pretend that Patrick Williams belongs in that high ceiling conversation?!?! I don’t even....

Sure Patrick Williams has upside in that vicinity. If someone told you in 2011 that Jimmy Butler had as much upside as Derrick Williams, you'd have probably laughed at them. If someone told you that now, you'd say "Derrick who?".

In this sense, I prefer to think of it more as confidence than upside. With his physical body, there's not much reason to think someone like Patrick Williams (or Isaac Okoro if we want to anchor to a non Bulls player) have tremendous upside if everything worked out. We're highly skeptical because there is such a long way to go and so have very low confidence of them making massive changes based on their current development.

With someone like LaMelo, the path is a bit simpler to get there, but I doubt most people would be too shocked if any one of maybe 20 players ended up being the best guy in this draft, and Patrick Williams is probably one of those guys in that list that has a reasonable chance at it.

This is just silly, as you point out there is a clear difference in ceiling under the bolded. Essentially every player drafted has a Jimmy Butler level ability to become great. Simonovic could be the next Dirk, let's all say they have a high ceiling. It's not a true lottery, ceiling has a reasonability factor.

Williams doesn't flash that star-level upside. He's a combo forward with good, but not elite athleticism. In fact, he's not elite at anything except size and frame for a 3, but there are serious doubts he can make it as a 3. His handle is decent with no real moves, and a lack of wiggle so he needs to rely on strength and length, the shot is ok with potential for more, defensive IQ is good, on-ball defense is good, A/TO numbers are weak. Again, nothing elite that he can hang his hat on. So where is this ceiling coming from?

I have said all along Patrick is more like a 10-14 pick. Some 10-14 picks make it big and most don't.

[cjbulls]

I disagree. None of the top 3 are the wing I'm talking about. Edwards is a big guard with awful D and low IQ. Melo doesn't play D and his shot is fixable to below average IMO. Wiseman is an athletic specimen that doesn't and won't have a 3 ball IMO and he's a C... the least important position in the pros.

Not only do I think PW has the highest ceiling but I think based on what we know from background and continued improvement he is more likely to reach it. I could be totally wrong but I don't get those reaching potential vibes from Edwards and Melo. I do from Wiseman but I just don't think his position is important enough.

On a basic level, if you're saying a guy has a low ceiling because he doesn't play D then you're ignoring the whole concept of a ceiling.

Edwards has shown he can be a lock down defender, but his energy/effort is mixed (putting it nicely). Now, I am not saying that means he will, in fact he likely won't, be a good defender. But his ceiling is great defender and 25-30pt scorer with middling bball iq.

Wiseman's a potential All-NBA center with his size and athleticism.

And Ball is a Luka type do-it-all scorer/distributor.

Williams has no elite skills other than size/strength for a 3. He's a jack of all trades, so he needs something to set him apart to get a ceiling near those guys.

You tell him to stop using hyperbole... and then proceed to list those 3 players in a hyperbolic manner. Ball being compared to Luka, lol. You can't make this stuff up.

Sent from my SM-F707U using RealGM mobile app

As noted already, I am not saying they are the same player, but that his ceiling is a triple-double threat scorer/distributor. Williams ceiling is a two-way forward that everyone says is underrated but no one wants to vote into the all-star game.

[MrSparkle]

Hypothetically though, let's say worst-case scenario PW is a total bust. How many guys are we worried about actually becoming elite players in the 5-30 range?

Frankly I'll be shocked if there's a real-deal all-star in the entire draft by 2022. Anybody got calls on the Mitchell, Giannis, Kawhi, Jokic of this draft? I can see a Shai or Fox-caliber steal here or there, but not a true top-20 talent.

Does anyone actually see Edwards or LaMelo as can't miss trade-ups, ala Luka?

[dougthonus]

This is just silly, as you point out there is a clear difference in ceiling under the bolded. Essentially every player drafted has a Jimmy Butler level ability to become great. Simonovic could be the next Dirk, let's all say they have a high ceiling. It's not a true lottery, ceiling has a reasonability factor.

Williams doesn't flash that star-level upside. He's a combo forward with good, but not elite athleticism. In fact, he's not elite at anything except size and frame for a 3, but there are serious doubts he can make it as a 3. His handle is decent with no real moves, and a lack of wiggle so he needs to rely on strength and length, the shot is ok with potential for more, defensive IQ is good, on-ball defense is good, A/TO numbers are weak. Again, nothing elite that he can hang his hat on. So where is this ceiling coming from?

I have said all along Patrick is more like a 10-14 pick. Some 10-14 picks make it big and most don't.

I agree that reasonability is definitely the factor, but I think Williams has more reasonable upside than you and LaMelo has less reasonable upside than you. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if Williams is the better player of the two.

[GimmeDat]

A day later, I've bought in to this pick a lot.

PatWill seems to have improved his body for the better already, and from what I've read, seems to have upside to potentially improve his foot-speed if he corrects physical imbalances. That's not to say I believe he can be an SF, still pretty wary on that one, seems like an unlikely possibility to me, but it should improve his game and his defensive versatility a bit more.

Combine that with the fact that he was really underutilized his freshman season and has shown really positive flashes as a passer/handler/pull-up shooter, there is a lot to like.

I see AK's vision now and I'm sorry I doubted him, if only for 24 hours, lol. I'm officially excited for this pick. Him and WCJ are going to form such an exciting back-court.

[cjbulls]

Hypothetically though, let's say worst-case scenario PW is a total bust.

How many players are we worried about actually becoming all-stars in the 5-30 range? Frankly I'll be shocked if there's a real-deal all-star in the entire draft by 21/22. Anybody got calls on the Mitchell, Giannis, Kawhi, Jokic of this draft?

That's a fair point, although we should remember this draft as when they could have traded up but chose not to. It will never be cheaper to take a risk on a high ceiling guy as this year.

And they could have traded down and chose not to. 7 and 16 was almost certainly on the table. So i guess you're looking at Hayes/Toppin/Hali/Deni/Vassell/Kira. Very few of those players have potential all-star ceilings, maybe Toppin and Hayes.

If I wanted a defensive wing with potential, Okoro was a better choice. If I wanted a higher floor defensive wing, I should have gone Vassell. If I wanted a versatile player that can develop as a shooter and playmaker, Deni was a better choice.

It was almost like there was a multiple choice test, and the Bulls saw red flags on every guys, so they crossed off each possible choice and at the end only Patrick Williams was left. Generally I want my team to pick the guy that hits some quality they want, rather than is not missing some of the other flaws.

[cjbulls]

This is just silly, as you point out there is a clear difference in ceiling under the bolded. Essentially every player drafted has a Jimmy Butler level ability to become great. Simonovic could be the next Dirk, let's all say they have a high ceiling. It's not a true lottery, ceiling has a reasonability factor.

Williams doesn't flash that star-level upside. He's a combo forward with good, but not elite athleticism. In fact, he's not elite at anything except size and frame for a 3, but there are serious doubts he can make it as a 3. His handle is decent with no real moves, and a lack of wiggle so he needs to rely on strength and length, the shot is ok with potential for more, defensive IQ is good, on-ball defense is good, A/TO numbers are weak. Again, nothing elite that he can hang his hat on. So where is this ceiling coming from?

I have said all along Patrick is more like a 10-14 pick. Some 10-14 picks make it big and most don't.

I agree that reasonability is definitely the factor, but I think Williams has more reasonable upside than you and LaMelo has less reasonable upside than you. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if Williams is the better player of the two.

I wouldn't be surprised either (but not remotely). But that shouldn't have been the concern here. We are pick 4, for the last time supposedly. Let's go for a star. It's not like we have some great core that we can't sacrifice. They are headed for the treadmill at a very fast pace unless they plan to quickly start making sacrifices, or we underestimate how bad Boylen was.

[HearshotKDS]

Interested to see how he turns out. First impression was disappointment at the pick, but given this draft there wasn't going to be anyone I liked outside of a trade up.

Going to give him a chance though, I suspect he will have a similar career to "whoever the good Morris Twin is at the moment" from earlier in this thread, but im not confident in that assessment - its my gut reaction until we actually see him play NBA games.

But the beauty of the Bulls position in the middle of basketball irrelevancy is that they have all the time in the world to develop the kid and see what he can become. I've got my fingers crossed that he turns into something special, but will settle for strong contributor if that's what fate has in store for him.

[bad knees]

Digging deep on the PWill videos. Did you know that his mom was a great bball player, that he loves the WNBA and thinks Diana Taurasi is the GOAT? Well, now you do. I like this.

Watch on YouTube

[cjbulls]

Can a mod add a poll to this thread, At the time of signing his second contract (which clearly will be a max given the rosy outlook on this board), is Patrick Williams a 3 or a 4?

[nomorezorro]

other than maybe his mobility, i think the biggest disconnect between people who hate this pick and people who are at least open to the idea of it working out is williams's shooting

i assume people just look at his 32% 3pt and read/hear that his outside shot is still a work in progress and assume "damn, no guarantee he's a good shooter..maybe if we're lucky he gets to league average." but to me, part of the appeal is that williams is easily projectable as a strong shooter. good ft%, good on long twos, weirdly weakest from the corners in college (which feels fluky or like he just needs to get more accustomed to that shot)

[dumbell78]

Full video here:

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CHym2d8BfPb/?igshid=1pvqv11tydszb

I like what I see. Obviously they aren't going all out defensively, but looks like he's slowly developing a smoothness to his game, he's always in the right gear. Doesn't look totally uncomfortable with his off-hand either.

Not only does he "not look totally uncomfortable with his off hand", he actually looks GREAT with it. One of the first things I noticed about him is that he uses both hands really well. He can dribble, finish and throw one handed bullet passes on the money with both hands. It's a rare trait for somebody so young to be that ambidextrous.

I know its a silly pick up game and Instagram but he looked a lot like Glenn Robinson with his fluidity and smoothness. Glenn obviously had a solid offensive game and was a true 3 in his career, remains to be seen if this kid can build an offensive arsenal. The smoothness in that useless clip is showing.

[VolumePoster]

It reminds me of the time I saw a clip of Paul George working out. Just thought to myself, yup. Player. Same reaction here. Rough edges, needs development...but player.

Good lesson of not letting your first reaction rule the day. I was livid at the moment of the pick. But I’m really interested for the season. He and WCJ, health provided, could anchor a nice defense.

That is a great point. We have too many indifferent/inflexible defenders. WCJ finally has someone who can help him out.

Okoro just would have been better. Haha

I don’t know man. This kid is three inches taller and I like the shot more.

[transplant]

If you watched every minute of PWill's college career, you have a database of 652.5 minutes...of an 18 year old kid...playing on a top-5 team that returned a bunch of guys. Seriously, forget trying to justify the pick on what he's done. This is a pure potential pick.

[johnnyvann840]

I like what I see. Obviously they aren't going all out defensively, but looks like he's slowly developing a smoothness to his game, he's always in the right gear. Doesn't look totally uncomfortable with his off-hand either.

Not only does he "not look totally uncomfortable with his off hand", he actually looks GREAT with it. One of the first things I noticed about him is that he uses both hands really well. He can dribble, finish and throw one handed bullet passes on the money with both hands. It's a rare trait for somebody so young to be that ambidextrous.

I know its a silly pick up game and Instagram but he looked a lot like Glenn Robinson with his fluidity and smoothness. Glenn obviously had a solid offensive game and was a true 3 in his career, remains to be seen if this kid can build an offensive arsenal. The smoothness in that useless clip is showing.

This is 7 months ago. I know it's an empty gym workout, but this impressed me. Also, watching some of his late season FSU games, I noticed how well he uses both hands. He can finish with his left hand, he can throw bullets passes off the bounce with both hands equally well. It's really a rare thing to see.

Watch on YouTube

[cjbulls]

It reminds me of the time I saw a clip of Paul George working out. Just thought to myself, yup. Player. Same reaction here. Rough edges, needs development...but player.

Good lesson of not letting your first reaction rule the day. I was livid at the moment of the pick. But I’m really interested for the season. He and WCJ, health provided, could anchor a nice defense.

That is a great point. We have too many indifferent/inflexible defenders. WCJ finally has someone who can help him out.

Okoro just would have been better. Haha

I don’t know man. This kid is three inches taller and I like the shot more.

But Okoro has no athleticism concerns defensively. He is an elite defender with quick feet and fluid hips that can truly guard 1-4. You just need him to develop a shot. I agree that Williams is certainly a better potential shooter and bigger, but that's not necessarily an advantage. I want a defensive wing over a defensive forward.

[cjbulls]

I like what I see. Obviously they aren't going all out defensively, but looks like he's slowly developing a smoothness to his game, he's always in the right gear. Doesn't look totally uncomfortable with his off-hand either.

Not only does he "not look totally uncomfortable with his off hand", he actually looks GREAT with it. One of the first things I noticed about him is that he uses both hands really well. He can dribble, finish and throw one handed bullet passes on the money with both hands. It's a rare trait for somebody so young to be that ambidextrous.

I know its a silly pick up game and Instagram but he looked a lot like Glenn Robinson with his fluidity and smoothness. Glenn obviously had a solid offensive game and was a true 3 in his career, remains to be seen if this kid can build an offensive arsenal. The smoothness in that useless clip is showing.

Big dog would have been a 4 in today's NBA. He had ankle issues that limited his lateral quickness. He was also a truly elite mid range shooter.