The Zach Lavine Problem

[Rerisen]

What strikes me is how many posters write off LaVine because of his negative team impact numbers, but find reasons to ignore Mirotic's positive team impact numbers.

Pointing out a guy has had poor impact doesn't equal 'writing them off'. Especially when they are 22 years old. It's just acknowledging where they are at currently.

In the case of Mirotic, most likely the same people that don't like those numbers on Lavine, DID like them about Mirotic. Like me, who wanted Mirotic to start at PF from the 1st day of the season.

[kingkirk]

Whats your definition of multi though? Besides Hinke what team says let's suck for 5 years? If the Bulls could get two top 5 picks in 2018 and 2019 then start to add to that to win games why is that bad? There's multiple correct ways to build this back.

I never said it was bad. But I agree with this poster here:

I believe(their plan) this will be a 1 year rebuild. They'll land a top 3 pick and will add vets via FA that will help the team get in the postseason(which won't be hard as the East has weaken even more so)

But how this team develops it's players, it wouldn't shock me one bit if they become a doormat.

The Bulls' plan won't be to be sitting at the bottom of the league until 2019-20. They're banking on LaVine, Dunn and Markkanen being successful players that grow into starters. They're banking on their 2018 pick to add to that. Once they have those pieces in place, assuming they do develop, they will look to add free agents to get back into the postseason.

Like I said, it may end up being something that last for 3-4 years, but the ideal scenario is that the team is at its worst for next season, and then to trend up from there.

The plan isn't to bottom out for 3 drafts, acquiring a heap of picks and having multiple bites at the draft for 3 years running.

[Rerisen]

I believe(their plan) this will be a 1 year rebuild. They'll land a top 3 pick and will add vets via FA that will help the team get in the postseason(which won't be hard as the East has weaken even more so)

But how this team develops it's players, it wouldn't shock me one bit if they become a doormat.

The Bulls' plan won't be to be sitting at the bottom of the league until 2019-20. They're banking on LaVine, Dunn and Markkanen being successful players that grow into starters. They're banking on their 2018 pick to add to that. Once they have those pieces in place, assuming they do develop, they will look to add free agents to get back into the postseason.

Like I said, it may end up being something that last for 3-4 years, but the ideal scenario is that the team is at its worst for next season, and then to trend up from there.

The plan isn't to bottom out for 3 drafts, acquiring a heap of picks and having multiple bites at the draft for 3 years running.

Agree, I don't think the Bulls have the stomach for a Hinkie.

But you won't likely rebuild to a contender out of a 1 year tank. So the Bulls really need to hit big in the next draft, because indeed like Ralph suggested, I could easily see them quickly scrambling to add vets and get back into the playoff picture again.

Which means we are at super high risk of them abandoning the rebuild too soon, just to end up back in the lower middle somewhere, but without a guy as good as Butler. Then this will all have been for nothing.

[Paxson43]

One thing that should be interesting with Zach, is if he can keep his efficiency up if our PG talent is very poor.

As he'll likely be our 1st option when he returns, compared to say Jimmy (Ast 41%), Zach was assisted much more at 60% and may have a harder time here finding good shots, esp on his 3 pointers, which you usually need to be set up for to shoot a high percentage.

Fantastic question I don't recall being brought up before. Raw numbers inflate when you are the tallest shorty as you say. How good he actually is will be interesting to break down.

A lot can go into that, but I expect the ball to be flying around for us offensively so I'm anticipating those assist number and assist percentages to increase. Jimmy's game wasn't to be running off screens and then catching and shooting the ball. LaVine can do that, but he also can get into the paint due to his ridiculous first step.

[jump]

What strikes me is how many posters write off LaVine because of his negative team impact numbers, but find reasons to ignore Mirotic's positive team impact numbers.

Pointing out a guy has had poor impact doesn't equal 'writing them off'. Especially when they are 22 years old. It's just acknowledging where they are at currently.

In the case of Mirotic, most likely the same people that don't like those numbers on Lavine, DID like them about Mirotic. Like me, who wanted Mirotic to start at PF from the 1st day of the season.

Well, congratulations on you option on Mirotic. And I mean that sincerely because I agree. I think he will benefit greatly from starting and would have been a better player all last season if he had started.

As for "writing him off," I'll admit I'm not tracking individual posts. But the negativity gains momentum with each negative post on LaVine, until it seems (and I said "seems") that most of the people here think he's going to be average or negative. I realize how the FO has deservedly lost trust of the fans, but it feels like mob mentality and everyone wants to hate every FO move to reinforce their distain for management. They deserve it, but to me, too many people on this board just want to hate everything.

[Rerisen]

They're banking on LaVine, Dunn and Markkanen being successful players that grow into starters.

I think Fred actually said that point himself (or someone close to the team with sources).

That the Bulls felt (or hoped) they got 3 potential starters out of the Butler trade.

TBH though, I'm not sure the right way to rebuild is just by finding a handful of starters first, unless one of them becomes a legit star.

[kingkirk]

Agree, I don't think the Bulls have the stomach for a Hinkie.

But you won't likely rebuild to a contender out of a 1 year tank. So the Bulls really need to hit big in the next draft, because indeed like Ralph suggested, I could easily see them quickly scrambling to add vets and get back into the playoff picture again.

Which means we are at super high risk of them abandoning the rebuild too soon, just to end up back in the lower middle somewhere, but without a guy as good as Butler. Then this will all have been for nothing.

See the Bulls during the mid-2000s, who got their guys in Hinrich, Gordon and Deng over two drafts, then looked to add free agents. It reset itself in 2007, 08 and 09 because the team fell backwards, which may happen here if the Bulls pump the accelerator too hard too quickly.

[fleet]

It's only thing we have. Are we going to start call on people who are optimistic or those who try feel themselves better making optimistic prognosis for Bulls future? Even if it is likely false one. Do you want this board to be in state of depression even during offseason? Let people be, otherwise this board will slowly start to die.

if the Bulls cared what fans think, it would have been the optimists that enabled all this crap we have seen. The board should have been depressed imo, bad stuff was happening. Optimists didn't want to face any of it. If they want to keep it up, so be it. I'm certainly not advocating depression. I'm advocating holding this team accountable. Optimists go farther in life. That's also reality. But if they get stuck with bad partners, I believe it does no service not to challenge.

Now, I share the outlook that Zach Lavine is not that good really. In that he should not be regarded as a centerpiece of a rebuild, or even guaranteed a roster spot in 2 years. The FO is selling this now. Is anybody interested in challenging this? I was wrong about my belief that Lavine would be flipped at the deadline before the Bulls would pay him mega millions to play on a bad team. Doesn't seem right. Granted he is certainly young enough to grow into those mega millions, and perhaps the centerpiece of a great team. Not going to preclude it. But I'm not betting on it. Should people be cheerleading for this in confidence? I think it's crazy. But the Bulls have almost done nothing I wanted them to do until the Butler trade. They want to put all their chips on Lavine, that's their business. As usual, they seem to have no long term vision anymore,or at least one that is based on solid decision-making. That's they way the approached the draft in not considering a point guard because they had Dunn and Payne in place already battling for the starting job. Is an optimist picking up on this?

who said the bulls are putting all their chips on Lavine? Maybe I'm just not used to reading these threads on my mobile and I'm missing posts but I feel like there's a huge disconnect between what the "optimists" are saying and what the "pessimists" are debating.

Lavine is young and most young players come back fine from an ACL injury. Lauri hasn't even seen an nba court yet. Dunn had an underwhelming.... scratch that... bad rookie season in 17 mpg. I think I will wait a bit before declaring them all busts. That's pretty much my optimists view.

It seems like the responses are "none of them are going to be superstars, and lavine had negative on off stats on a doormat team".

Seems everyone is just talking past each other. Or maybe it is just me. There is a ton of upside for the 3 players the Bulls got. More so than what the team had entering the off-season.

Players don't have to be superstars or busts. 99% of NBA rotation players fall somewhere along the sliding scale in the middle.

If every move and every player is judged on whether they're the next Superstar this is going to be a really long tank. The first season of it hasn't even started and we are already lamenting we haven't picked up the franchise player yet.

Sent from my SM-G920V using RealGM mobile app

I don't know where the post is where I thought Pax was saying ZL is now the "centerpiece". Or whatever that comment was. Maybe it was Gar, IDK. A ridiculous thing to be talking about for reasons of prior performance, and Bulls instability and likely future change factor. I don't have a problem with Zach being on the team. I only have questions.

GarPax are running the show with JR. If this is good with someone who doesn't have a negative outlook on their job performance, and team performance, you might be an optimist. Said to sound like Jeff Foxworthy. Nothing wrong with that if that's how you feel, not given to worry about any FO accountability. Not ever it seems. If you are unsatisfied with how things have gone, well.....

[Rerisen]

As for "writing him off," I'll admit I'm not tracking individual posts. But the negativity gains momentum with each negative post on LaVine, until it seems (and I said "seems") that most of the people here think he's going to be average or negative. I realize how the FO has deservedly lost trust of the fans, but it feels like mob mentality and everyone wants to hate every FO move to reinforce their distain for management. They deserve it, but to me, too many people on this board just want to hate everything.

Ironic thing is Zach is the only thing I find remotely interesting/hopeful about this team right now.

Because he does have star potential, even if the odds are low, and he's sort of behind the curve of development of what a superstar would be showing by now.

But at least does have clear All-Star potential.

[Rerisen]

I don't know where the post is where I thought Pax was saying ZL is now the "centerpiece". Or whatever that comment was. Maybe it was Gar, IDK. A ridiculous thing to be talking about for reasons of prior performance, and Bulls instability and likely future change factor.

Zach's agent better be storing those comments up, as when it comes time for his contract next year, I wonder if GarPax will be singing the same tune.

And tbh they shouldn't be unless he shows a ton this year, which is going to be incredibly hard if he misses a lot.

[fleet]

I believe(their plan) this will be a 1 year rebuild. They'll land a top 3 pick and will add vets via FA that will help the team get in the postseason(which won't be hard as the East has weaken even more so)

But how this team develops it's players, it wouldn't shock me one bit if they become a doormat.

The Bulls' plan won't be to be sitting at the bottom of the league until 2019-20. They're banking on LaVine, Dunn and Markkanen being successful players that grow into starters. They're banking on their 2018 pick to add to that. Once they have those pieces in place, assuming they do develop, they will look to add free agents to get back into the postseason.

Like I said, it may end up being something that last for 3-4 years, but the ideal scenario is that the team is at its worst for next season, and then to trend up from there.

The plan isn't to bottom out for 3 drafts, acquiring a heap of picks and having multiple bites at the draft for 3 years running.

Agree, I don't think the Bulls have the stomach for a Hinkie.

But you won't likely rebuild to a contender out of a 1 year tank. So the Bulls really need to hit big in the next draft, because indeed like Ralph suggested, I could easily see them quickly scrambling to add vets and get back into the playoff picture again.

Which means we are at super high risk of them abandoning the rebuild too soon, just to end up back in the lower middle somewhere, but without a guy as good as Butler. Then this will all have been for nothing.

There's not much doubt this will happen. Not that they can't recover from playing the hand wrong if they got the right lotto luck to get them out of it. But they are going to do exactly what you described, and get jumpy, probably over losing popularity in Chicago and all the fallout from that. That's not even a question in my mind.

[jump]

As for "writing him off," I'll admit I'm not tracking individual posts. But the negativity gains momentum with each negative post on LaVine, until it seems (and I said "seems") that most of the people here think he's going to be average or negative. I realize how the FO has deservedly lost trust of the fans, but it feels like mob mentality and everyone wants to hate every FO move to reinforce their distain for management. They deserve it, but to me, too many people on this board just want to hate everything.

Ironic thing is Zach is the only thing I find remotely interesting/hopeful about this team right now.

Because he does have star potential, even if the odds are low, and he's sort of behind the curve of development of what a superstar would be showing by now.

But at least does have clear All-Star potential.

We are in agreement again. I'm totally jazzed about LaVine. I believe he can be an All-Star. And The Finnisher, too. I also have hopes for Dunn. A star? Maybe not. But I see no reason to believe he can't be a solid starter for several years.

[PharmD]

^

Zach ON, Wiggins OFF: Team 103.0 PPP | Opponent 107.4 PPP = -4.4

Wiggins ON, Lavine OFF: Team 111.4 PPP | Opponent 110.6 PPP = +0.8

Wiggins having the ball hurting Zach doesn't hold up in the numbers, if anything the opposite.

Rerisen I've watched wolves games and talked with many wolves fans. This is one of those things advance stats suck without context moments.

Lavine was their best shooter out of main scorers and made argument was who should be the SG Wiggins or Lavine. Many saw Lavine rising up over Wiggins as the better offensive player.

I'm not sure what on/off numbers have to do with what i was saying about the team being worse at the start of the year due to point Wiggins and getting better after Dec 13th because of point Rubio (again, Zach got hurt so he played relatively more in the Point Wiggins era).

I think everyone (or at least most people) who watches the wolves think that Zach is/will be the better offensive player vs Wiggins. It's that Wiggins should become a good defender and I really don't think that Zach ever will. Zach's defensive stance is too hunched over, which robs him of some of his athleticism. And he doesn't instinctively understand how defense works, rotations, etc. He tries too hard at times and gets burned. For example, he tries to blow up dribble handoffs that he recognizes, but this usually ends up with him getting backdoored. That said, i've been league passing a lot of your games to watch Butler and Zach is NOWHERE NEAR as big of a defensive liability as Doug McDermott. You can't just iso Zach and attack him as he's pretty good one on one. You have to confuse him (which is not that hard unfortunately) with something offball.

[GimmeDat]

I think another thing about Zach's 'effect' on the game - out of many deficiencies the Wolves had, volume scoring was not one of them. When you have guys like Wiggins and KAT on your roster, Zach's game become somewhat redundant given their needs, and given the alternatives would've given more in more complimentary areas of the game.

Now that Zach can be the alpha here, I think he'll be a pretty pivotal part of our success going forward.

[Ralphb07]

Whats your definition of multi though? Besides Hinke what team says let's suck for 5 years? If the Bulls could get two top 5 picks in 2018 and 2019 then start to add to that to win games why is that bad? There's multiple correct ways to build this back.

I never said it was bad. But I agree with this poster here:

I believe(their plan) this will be a 1 year rebuild. They'll land a top 3 pick and will add vets via FA that will help the team get in the postseason(which won't be hard as the East has weaken even more so)

But how this team develops it's players, it wouldn't shock me one bit if they become a doormat.

The Bulls' plan won't be to be sitting at the bottom of the league until 2019-20. They're banking on LaVine, Dunn and Markkanen being successful players that grow into starters. They're banking on their 2018 pick to add to that. Once they have those pieces in place, assuming they do develop, they will look to add free agents to get back into the postseason.

Like I said, it may end up being something that last for 3-4 years, but the ideal scenario is that the team is at its worst for next season, and then to trend up from there.

The plan isn't to bottom out for 3 drafts, acquiring a heap of picks and having multiple bites at the draft for 3 years running.

Well Paxson did say they made the trade to jumpstart the rebuild. So rather than hold onto Jimmy until he left in FA in two years, they decided to trade him for this years #7 and last years #5 and Lavine. So if it was only 2-3 years it was because the trade was in fact successful. I think they are okay with bottoming out for three straight drafts if it occurs. You don't blow it up without looking at the worst case scenario

[RedBulls23]

I believe(their plan) this will be a 1 year rebuild. They'll land a top 3 pick and will add vets via FA that will help the team get in the postseason(which won't be hard as the East has weaken even more so)

But how this team develops it's players, it wouldn't shock me one bit if they become a doormat.

The Bulls' plan won't be to be sitting at the bottom of the league until 2019-20. They're banking on LaVine, Dunn and Markkanen being successful players that grow into starters. They're banking on their 2018 pick to add to that. Once they have those pieces in place, assuming they do develop, they will look to add free agents to get back into the postseason.

Like I said, it may end up being something that last for 3-4 years, but the ideal scenario is that the team is at its worst for next season, and then to trend up from there.

The plan isn't to bottom out for 3 drafts, acquiring a heap of picks and having multiple bites at the draft for 3 years running.

Agree, I don't think the Bulls have the stomach for a Hinkie.

But you won't likely rebuild to a contender out of a 1 year tank. So the Bulls really need to hit big in the next draft, because indeed like Ralph suggested, I could easily see them quickly scrambling to add vets and get back into the playoff picture again.

Which means we are at super high risk of them abandoning the rebuild too soon, just to end up back in the lower middle somewhere, but without a guy as good as Butler. Then this will all have been for nothing.

The Bulls were never going to go a Hinkie route where they have a lot of terrible players, and I still question if they will add on bad contracts to take back draft picks.

I think what we as fans just have to hope for is they hit on and draft some potential super stars with their picks in the next 2-3 years.

[Red Larrivee]

If the Bulls are at their worst next season, and trend up each season after, I'm going to assume one of the players they drafted or traded for became an all-star. If not, it's a situation like 2004, where a bunch of young players broke out simultaneously. I can see why the latter would have downside, because it puts us further away from drafting an all-star. But that's a concern long-term for any rebuilding team because younger players are not going to play like trash forever.

Philadelphia is a different case because their team practically featured zero NBA players over the bulk of their rebuild. That's too extreme. No team should be expected to rebuild like that.

It's probable that the Bulls are terrible for the next 3-4 years rather than them putting together a playoff team next summer.

[Stratmaster]

One thing that should be interesting with Zach, is if he can keep his efficiency up if our PG talent is very poor.

As he'll likely be our 1st option when he returns, compared to say Jimmy (Ast 41%), Zach was assisted much more at 60% and may have a harder time here finding good shots, esp on his 3 pointers, which you usually need to be set up for to shoot a high percentage.

I agree with your point. However, hopefully he will be on the court with Niko a lot. Assuming Niko is back there is no reason the PF spot with Niko and Lauri shouldn't be the high volume scoring spot on this team a good portion of the time.

I don't mean to pick on this post, it is just a brief mention but I am seeing it in a lot of other posts also. If people are going to compare a 22 year old Lavine in his first season with the Bulls to a prime 27 year old Jimmy Butler playing on "Butler's team" we are destined to all be talking past each other every time Lavine's name is brought up. We are also destined to continue to view the trade that was made in all the wrong light.

[Stratmaster]

if the Bulls cared what fans think, it would have been the optimists that enabled all this crap we have seen. The board should have been depressed imo, bad stuff was happening. Optimists didn't want to face any of it. If they want to keep it up, so be it. I'm certainly not advocating depression. I'm advocating holding this team accountable. Optimists go farther in life. That's also reality. But if they get stuck with bad partners, I believe it does no service not to challenge.

Now, I share the outlook that Zach Lavine is not that good really. In that he should not be regarded as a centerpiece of a rebuild, or even guaranteed a roster spot in 2 years. The FO is selling this now. Is anybody interested in challenging this? I was wrong about my belief that Lavine would be flipped at the deadline before the Bulls would pay him mega millions to play on a bad team. Doesn't seem right. Granted he is certainly young enough to grow into those mega millions, and perhaps the centerpiece of a great team. Not going to preclude it. But I'm not betting on it. Should people be cheerleading for this in confidence? I think it's crazy. But the Bulls have almost done nothing I wanted them to do until the Butler trade. They want to put all their chips on Lavine, that's their business. As usual, they seem to have no long term vision anymore,or at least one that is based on solid decision-making. That's they way the approached the draft in not considering a point guard because they had Dunn and Payne in place already battling for the starting job. Is an optimist picking up on this?

who said the bulls are putting all their chips on Lavine? Maybe I'm just not used to reading these threads on my mobile and I'm missing posts but I feel like there's a huge disconnect between what the "optimists" are saying and what the "pessimists" are debating.

Lavine is young and most young players come back fine from an ACL injury. Lauri hasn't even seen an nba court yet. Dunn had an underwhelming.... scratch that... bad rookie season in 17 mpg. I think I will wait a bit before declaring them all busts. That's pretty much my optimists view.

It seems like the responses are "none of them are going to be superstars, and lavine had negative on off stats on a doormat team".

Seems everyone is just talking past each other. Or maybe it is just me. There is a ton of upside for the 3 players the Bulls got. More so than what the team had entering the off-season.

Players don't have to be superstars or busts. 99% of NBA rotation players fall somewhere along the sliding scale in the middle.

If every move and every player is judged on whether they're the next Superstar this is going to be a really long tank. The first season of it hasn't even started and we are already lamenting we haven't picked up the franchise player yet.

Sent from my SM-G920V using RealGM mobile app

I don't know where the post is where I thought Pax was saying ZL is now the "centerpiece". Or whatever that comment was. Maybe it was Gar, IDK. A ridiculous thing to be talking about for reasons of prior performance, and Bulls instability and likely future change factor. I don't have a problem with Zach being on the team. I only have questions.

GarPax are running the show with JR. If this is good with someone who doesn't have a negative outlook on their job performance, and team performance, you might be an optimist. Said to sound like Jeff Foxworthy. Nothing wrong with that if that's how you feel, not given to worry about any FO accountability. Not ever it seems. If you are unsatisfied with how things have gone, well.....

If they called him the centerpiece, as in, "we are building our championship team around Zach Lavine", I have a problem with that. If he said something to the effect that Zach Lavine will be the central point of the offense as in...for this season...I have no problem with that; well, maybe a little as I think the PF position with Niko and Lauri is the best volume offense opportunity but in the grand scheme of things it will mean nothing and that really is Fred's call anyway, right?

The front office gave us a contender until Rose's knees and psyche blew. When that happened and Butler emerged they took one last shot at contending with Gasol the last season under Thibs. When that didn't work, they blew it up.

Did they blow the McD pick? Looks likely, although when he is draining 3's at 40% this season there may be some revisiting of that assumption. 3 Point shooters seem to age like wine; pretty bitter at first but much smoother as they get older.

Have they made other mistakes? Yep, as has every single front office out there. Of course they should be held accountable, but people act like their track record is one of failure. It isn't. You can say they got lucky with the Rose pick, or that Thibs is a magical alien and willed the team into contenders despite having no talent. There isn't any track record of failure to hold them accountable for unless you count 1 season to long of the "core".

So yes, I hold them accountable for being one of the top organizations in the league, but so far failing to win a championship.

[MrFortune3]

I think the Bulls thought process going into their rebuild is to be bad and hopefully land the #1 pick once of twice in 2 of the 3 likely rebuilding years. All the while you gain talent from trading Butler and use it to build around the top picks from the rebuild.

That would leave the team with a glut of talent in a similar manner to Boston and not require us to be Philly level bad.

What Hinkie did was for the most part in the best interest of Philadelphia. They hired a good coach and had to go to the extreme to ensure they would be bad enough to land talent. They built up assets and those assets allowed them to eventually have enough to deal up for Fultz.