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Lauri Markkanen Discussion Thread

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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#81 » by FranchisePlayer » Fri Feb 7, 2020 8:32 pm

chefo wrote:It looks like the leaks from Lauri's circle are starting to come more often and more directly.

People seem to forget he is a pretty young guy and probably very impressionable... at least for a while. If Mottola and the guys he trusts tell him the Bulls coaches and FO are a bunch of idiots who are wasting his talent--> and all available evidence (the losing, his usage, the schemes) points to that--> yeah, things are only about to get worse, if nothing changes.

Lauri, as soft spoken and self-deprecating as he is, has said two or three times this year, that he has been told to go sit in the corner for most of the game. As soon as they got him moving in one of the last games before he got hurt he said something to the effect of how much he enjoyed getting to move around and NOT just sit in the corner waiting for a kick-out. He had a pretty good game too.

Not to repeat myself, but the O, as designed, was put together for 4 smalls/wings and a pick-setter. Euro offense or whatever you want to call it. As simple as simple gets. That's it. On O it didn't make one of lick of difference schematically if it was Lauri in the corner/elbow 3 or Archi/Val/Sato/Thad/Scrub. In that system, you either handle the ball (which he doesn't any longer), you set the pick (which the Bulls don't do with him because WCJ's guy cheats as is, and would cheat even more if WCJ was to space), or you space and wait for a kick-out where you either pull the trigger immediately for a semi-contested 3 (which Lauri started doing a lot because he can shoot on top of pretty much anybody) or drive (which he has sucked at because he's freakin' 7 feet tall and outside of Giannis, I can't remember any other player that size that has made a living off of driving from 3 with consistency).

There is no place in that offense for him where he can get in rhythm with ANY consistency because as we all know, there are times where he doesn't touch the ball in a place to do something with it apart from handing it off to a guard for an entire quarter. You can see it from low orbit that this O was not designed with him in mind one bit, because an O that relies on your 20/10 7 footer to either quick-trigger it from 3 or go ISO from the 3 point line as his only viable options is idiotic beyond reason. Or how about Jimbo taking him out at the 6 minute mark every game, regardless if he has it going or not and keeping him glued to the bench for 15-20 minutes of time, until the middle of the 2nd quarter. Way to ice a 'shooter', coach!

That system is most definitely not the same as last year, and furthermore, the 3s and layups only rule was just the cherry on the stupid cake because it could only work until an assistant on ANY opposing team points it out and then EVERYBODY with a bit of discipline would play you for that tendency... which is EXACTLY what happened and the Bulls coaches, took 40 games to react to that, ever so slightly.

So yeah, if I were him, I'd also be 'Get your cow manure together, or I'm out'.

P.S. It makes a huge difference if you're a big and pump fake at the elbow, then one dribble and go to the hoop versus the same exercise from the 3 point line. In the former case, the D has little time to react to the drive and if you beat your guy, it's either a foul or a layup/dunk. In the latter case, the extra two dribbles mean that there are probably 3-4 guys waiting for you in the paint unless everybody else on the team is a legit 3 point threat. That's why old offenses treated the elbow as their optimal place for a scorer to get the ball. Anyhow, just musing on how 'new-age Bulls ball' seems to have thrown out 60 years of accumulated basketball knowledge.


That was a fantastic post, chefo!
MrSparkle wrote:I don't see a scenario here or there where Lauri becomes the "7-pick we thought he could be." If you remove his 3P ability, he's worse than Felicio by a mile.

12/2/2022
I like the quote- it makes me chuckle. And it was/is pretty much true.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#82 » by AKfanatic » Fri Feb 7, 2020 8:40 pm

chefo wrote:It looks like the leaks from Lauri's circle are starting to come more often and more directly.

People seem to forget he is a pretty young guy and probably very impressionable... at least for a while. If Mottola and the guys he trusts tell him the Bulls coaches and FO are a bunch of idiots who are wasting his talent--> and all available evidence (the losing, his usage, the schemes) points to that--> yeah, things are only about to get worse, if nothing changes.

Lauri, as soft spoken and self-deprecating as he is, has said two or three times this year, that he has been told to go sit in the corner for most of the game. As soon as they got him moving in one of the last games before he got hurt he said something to the effect of how much he enjoyed getting to move around and NOT just sit in the corner waiting for a kick-out. He had a pretty good game too.

Not to repeat myself, but the O, as designed, was put together for 4 smalls/wings and a pick-setter. Euro offense or whatever you want to call it. As simple as simple gets. That's it. On O it didn't make one of lick of difference schematically if it was Lauri in the corner/elbow 3 or Archi/Val/Sato/Thad/Scrub. In that system, you either handle the ball (which he doesn't any longer), you set the pick (which the Bulls don't do with him because WCJ's guy cheats as is, and would cheat even more if WCJ was to space), or you space and wait for a kick-out where you either pull the trigger immediately for a semi-contested 3 (which Lauri started doing a lot because he can shoot on top of pretty much anybody) or drive (which he has sucked at because he's freakin' 7 feet tall and outside of Giannis, I can't remember any other player that size that has made a living off of driving from 3 with consistency).

There is no place in that offense for him where he can get in rhythm with ANY consistency because as we all know, there are times where he doesn't touch the ball in a place to do something with it apart from handing it off to a guard for an entire quarter. You can see it from low orbit that this O was not designed with him in mind one bit, because an O that relies on your 20/10 7 footer to either quick-trigger it from 3 or go ISO from the 3 point line as his only viable options is idiotic beyond reason. Or how about Jimbo taking him out at the 6 minute mark every game, regardless if he has it going or not and keeping him glued to the bench for 15-20 minutes of time, until the middle of the 2nd quarter. Way to ice a 'shooter', coach!

That system is most definitely not the same as last year, and furthermore, the 3s and layups only rule was just the cherry on the stupid cake because it could only work until an assistant on ANY opposing team points it out and then EVERYBODY with a bit of discipline would play you for that tendency... which is EXACTLY what happened and the Bulls coaches, took 40 games to react to that, ever so slightly.

So yeah, if I were him, I'd also be 'Get your cow manure together, or I'm out'.

P.S. It makes a huge difference if you're a big and pump fake at the elbow, then one dribble and go to the hoop versus the same exercise from the 3 point line. In the former case, the D has little time to react to the drive and if you beat your guy, it's either a foul or a layup/dunk. In the latter case, the extra two dribbles mean that there are probably 3-4 guys waiting for you in the paint unless everybody else on the team is a legit 3 point threat. That's why old offenses treated the elbow as their optimal place for a scorer to get the ball. Anyhow, just musing on how 'new-age Bulls ball' seems to have thrown out 60 years of accumulated basketball knowledge.



Exactly this. Said much better than I’ve been trying to say for awhile.

Folks that believe Lauri should automatically be producing as he had before, in an offense that has taken away his best weapon, one in which allowed him to find rhythm, haven’t truly played ball.

Great post Chefo
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#83 » by transplant » Fri Feb 7, 2020 8:52 pm

I'm a Markkanen fan.

The NBA is a players league. Unlike high school and college where players need to conform to the system, in the NBA, the better teams fit their systems to enhance the ability of their players.

This said, none of this explains/excuses the fact that Markkanen missed way too many open 3s when he was supposedly healthy.

I don't much care if Markkanen wants out or not. Either way, he needs to get healthy and play well.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#84 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 7, 2020 9:00 pm

I don't think Lauri's initial bad play can be lumped to one root cause. There were multiple factors that went into the sh*tshow.

Regardless of injuries, the system wasn't doing him any favors. It's already been discussed but his role was severely limited compared to the past. I think the mistake is thinking it was always like that. My thinking is this Lauri WAS initially intended to be more involved in the offense however, I do think he had a serious nagging injury. We could see he wasn't right. The right thing to do at that time WAS to minimize his role in the offense. He WAS shooting poorly but he WAS also still one of the more effective floor spacers on the floor (just gravity by reputation).

Unfortunately, I think while trying to not overburden him during recovery, habits were set, pecking order established and Lauri was now an afterthought. During December, we saw Lauri being more "Lauri" but unfortunately those came in spurts. This is where I think the blame shifts to the coaching/system. When you see a top option returning to form, you should use him more, instead he was being even more marginalized (Extended periods on the bench, primary objective as a spacer, appeasing Thad).

Then FINALLY the coaching/system started to give him more usage/minutes and bam double whammy: he gets an ankle sprain & WCJ/Gafford go down. Now you have a player back in recovery phase but you ask him to play a different harder role as a C (which is not the role for him to excel at).

Then the stress reaction happens. It's the classic saying. This year was one step forward, two steps back for Lauri.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#85 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 7, 2020 9:01 pm

transplant wrote:I'm a Markkanen fan.

The NBA is a players league. Unlike high school and college where players need to conform to the system, in the NBA, the better teams fit their systems to enhance the ability of their players.

This said, none of this explains/excuses the fact that Markkanen missed way too many open 3s when he was supposedly healthy.

I don't much care if Markkanen wants out or not. Either way, he needs to get healthy and play well.


Idk where you got he was healthy from. He was not healthy. but yeah he needs to hit his open 3s regardless.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#86 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 7, 2020 9:17 pm

dougthonus wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:I guess I should have put in the qualifier as "elite shooter for a big man" but he's on his way to becoming an elite shooter in general. Ability should be assessed outside of injury play. First year Lauri was very much a streaky shooter but when he was on fire, he was on fire. Last year, coming back from a serious injury to his SHOOTING elbow, he was around 38% until the fatigue stuff happened.


I don't think he's really elite for a big man either, given that he is mostly taking assisted open threes. There is no point in arguing that when he shoots well he shoots well. His overall efficiency and shot difficulty is what you look at and balance. His overall difficulty isn't especially high and his efficiency isn't especially good.

His type of shooting will probably be the norm for most big men in the league over the next few years and not something that is elite or even notably above average.

This year it was whatever his problem was earlier (I do think it was some sort of injury) he was bad for 20 games. But he was at 38% for the last 26, 41% until he sprained his ankle.


Looking at good periods statistically and then ignoring bad periods and creating a reason like "I think he was really dealing with an unreported injury" feels like a really inaccurate way to come up with an assessment.

We really haven't had a full season of assessing Lauri. I am also getting tired about making excuses about injury but it is what it is. Hovering around 38% on high volume is a high level shooter and I expect him to be at that and probably get better with more NBA years.


He's not hovering around 38% though. He's hovering around 35%. You can't arbitrarily just get rid of all the bad data because it doesn't fit your desired outcome. You could probably come up with similar stories for all kinds of guys who shoot 35%.

His injury history is concerning but not terrifying. He doesn't have the type of injuries, generally, that make you feel like he could never stay healthy, but there's certainly a question about whether his body can hold up as we haven't seen it yet.


You can get rid of bad data when it's outliers compared to norms. I guess it is true that Lauri being injured is unfortunately becoming the norm. I wasn't removing data where Lauri was going through slumps (up and down for the season). It was legitimate injuries. He looked like a different player not the same player just missing shots. Zach's last few games are what you would consider the norms and going through slumps.

Also, looking at overall season numbers is disingenuous in this context. You can get the same overall mean with wildly different seasons. Look at this:

Image

In both of these cases, both shooters average 35%. However, one is not like the other. The blue line is what you would consider a TRUE 35% shooter. He averages around 35% game to game. Lauri's season this year was the red line with a clean break at Dec 1st. He had a similar distribution last year when he fell off a cliff after that fatigue issue.

Now which do you think the "true healthy Lauri" is closer to? I say 40% because we have info that he WAS injured earlier. It's not unreported. It was literally in every Boylen postgame. Always along the lines of "I'm proud of Lauri. He's going through some things but he's battling. He wants to be out there for the team".

You would be well within your rights to say he's closer to a 30% shooter because injuries are a part of the game and Lauri is seems to be consistently injured. But I don't think it's a good conclusion to average the two and say he's just a 35% shooter. When Lauri is on, he is on. When he is not, he is not. There is very rarely middle ground 35% for him.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#87 » by Mbrahv0528 » Fri Feb 7, 2020 9:19 pm

DuckIII wrote:
Dominater wrote:
MeloRoseNoah wrote:
LOL Boylen can gtfo and Paxson can be on the same express bus for supporting this clown.

As a hard critic of Lauri, I feel bad for him now especially putting up 30+ pts and 15+ boards in the season opener.

That is effed up beyond belief. He plays like a superstar that 1st game, and Boylen reprimands him? I would've demanded a trade on the spot.


As foolish as Boylen can be, and as perplexing as I find Paxson’s support of him to be, I basically don’t believe it. Or at least not the way it’s described.

It’s unfathomable that a coach would go in on a player in those terms after he goes for 35/17 on 25 fga in a high paced game.

If you told me he received constructive criticism in the film room for isolated instances of shot selection, stuff like that, sure I’d believe that. That’s what post game film sessions are for - reinforce the positive, discuss areas of improvement.

But not even Coach Pushups would do what is described. It’s either not believable to me at all, or hyperbole, or Lauri is outrageously soft and copped a “how dare he” attitude. Those three are far more likely.
It's really not totally unfathomable with a buffoon as your head coach my dude. This is the same moron who said "if you build it, they will come" in regards to the team garnering wins. I'm sorry, but this is actually MORE than fathomable given what we know of this head coach and the FO.

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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#88 » by Hold That » Fri Feb 7, 2020 9:23 pm

dice wrote:
Hold That wrote:I think he might have the second highest trade value on this team. Wendell is always hurt and haven’t even shown enough yet to warrant anything decent at this point

no chance. wendell plays defense and is competent offensively. lauri is competent offensively and plays little defense. plus wendell has an extra year on a cheap deal

I agree with everything you said but I highly doubt the rest of the league shares that sentiment of Wendell being more valued than Lauri. Wendell hasn’t even proven he can stay on the court in his first two years. All of what you said is fine and quite possibly true what does it all mean if you can’t stay on the court
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#89 » by Hold That » Fri Feb 7, 2020 9:38 pm

BloodyQ wrote:
Hold That wrote:
DuckIII wrote:I mean, okay. He’s played like ass all season. If you play like crap, and then want out because you aren’t getting the shots you haven’t earned anyway, so long.

Problem I have is that his trade value is likely crap.

I don’t think it is. I feel like the rest of the league thinks he’s a legit player.

Remember listening to NBA Radio and Eddie Johnson was going off on how we were destroying Markannen and how he believes he’s such a good player. I think he might have the second highest trade value on this team. Wendell is always hurt and haven’t even shown enough yet to warrant anything decent at this point


The Bulls system gives him a whole bunch of open looks and he misses 80% of them. What other NBA star would miss that many?

Eddie Johnson was piggy backing off the premise that our analytical guys have him as a spot up shooter. That seems like the dark cloud over the Bulls organization after LaVine exposes them for saying he shouldn’t shoot the midrange. So many assume it’s the Bulls organization making Lauri into a spot up shooter. If that’s the case then I don’t see that lowering his trade value around the league if the league assumes it’s us. Which is good for the Bulls in trade talks, because the team that trades for Lauri will start to see it didn’t have much to do with the Bulls but more so Lauri’s lack of assertiveness in games.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#90 » by dougthonus » Fri Feb 7, 2020 9:39 pm

PaKii94 wrote:In both of these cases, both shooters average 35%. However, one is not like the other. The blue line is what you would consider a TRUE 35% shooter. He averages around 35% game to game. Lauri's season this year was the red line with a clean break at Dec 1st. He had a similar distribution last year when he fell off a cliff after that fatigue issue.

Now which do you think the "true healthy Lauri" is closer to? I say 40% because we have info that he WAS injured earlier. It's not unreported. It was literally in every Boylen postgame. Always along the lines of "I'm proud of Lauri. He's going through some things but he's battling. He wants to be out there for the team".

You would be well within your rights to say he's closer to a 30% shooter because injuries are a part of the game and Lauri is seems to be consistently injured. But I don't think it's a good conclusion to average the two and say he's just a 35% shooter. When Lauri is on, he is on. When he is not, he is not. There is very rarely middle ground 35% for him.


I think Lauri has over 1000 career attempts from three and averages 35%. He has had a reasonably close total amount of threes in each of the three years, so splitting that sample into rough 3rds, you still have about 35% each time. I think it is possible that Lauri could have a 40% year or a 38% year, but I wouldn't consider a number around 36% more likely than either.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#91 » by Red8911 » Fri Feb 7, 2020 9:40 pm

MrSparkle wrote:
Red8911 wrote:
Peelboy wrote:I don't know how anyone can watch the Bulls and say Boylen is doing anything to even give Lauri a chance to develop. And that's the #1 job of a coach in this situation. Yes, it is also true that Lauri could handle it better, that some players can overcome that kind of thing, etc. But more often than not, if you're a young player and your coach doesn't even seem remotely interested in doing what you do well and what maximizes your performance, you're going to struggle - unless maybe you're a Lebron, Zion, etc.

My problem with Lauri is his softness. For a 7 footer he has to be tougher than that and the way he’s playing it’s not going to cut it. He’s just too calm and too nice. Can Boylen or any coach fix that? Who knows.

Another problem he has is his basketball IQ. He has incredible talent but he needs to play smarter and score easy points. Coaching can definitely help him here a bit but it’s also on him to learn the game better. He doesn’t even know how to use his size the right way.

Overall I don’t blame Boylen over Lauri. There were a bunch of games where Lavine, Sato, and his other teammates were looking to pass to him only to get him going and he still struggled. I guess they should try another coach so we can see if he can help him but I’m not convinced that coaching is Lauris problem. He has to take it upon himself and work on his game.

This summer he needs to work his ass off in a basketball court and that doesn’t mean just lifting weights. Maybe get Pippen or someone else like that to push him to his limits. Last summer it seems like he didn’t do anything since he didn’t improve at all. Maybe it was that issue he had with the fatigue at the end of last season and that affected him but whatever the case is he needs to turn things around and it’s all on him not Boylen or any coach.


Yeah.... maybe Lauri is soft compared to the aggressive bigs of the NBA.

But like I've said, a good coach hides a player's weaknesses. I'm sure if Carlisle had Dirk banging at C in his youth (or I guess Nelson back when he coached), Dirk would probably end up with a busted hip and shot knees by the time he was 25. What did they have? They had a soft defense and an ultra offense. I think by the time Dirk turned 32, I personally felt like he hit a peak as a "big man." He rebounded and finished with contact, with authority. And he had a 7'3 pogo stick named Tyson Chandler, in his prime, grabbing rebounds.

Same with Chris Bosh. Called Princess Bosh up to about to that same point, especially when Boozer schooled him in regular season. Then he turned 27, hit the weights, and could actually rebound the ball at center with authority, and he figured out his role as the 3rd banana. It took a pretty stacked and epic Spurs team to beat them. He also routinely schooled Boozer. Also, the whole time, Riley made sure to have insurance at C (Joel Anthony, Birdman), regardless of what scrubs they were; they were big bodies who played 15-20 mpg.

Playing Lauri with an undersized, average athlete in Carter, and a young project to be frank, in a 1-4 type of offense Boylen's got... coupled with blitz defense, it's just all kinds of stupid. I don't think this is a matter of proving that Lauri can be a great legend in the history of the NBA, but holy cow are you challenging the kid to do absolutely nothing he's capable of doing comfortably other than taking contested 3P spot-up shots from the weak side. And the thing is, any team with a scouting report, their guys aren't really letting him take uncontested 3Ps, so he's still shooting them with a hand or rushing defender in his face. Not like Carter, Sato and Dunn were creating space.

And I agree that a big weakness for Lauri is that he can't rebound strong and block shots. It's a problem for him. But I wouldn't feed into that and highlight it. He's 21. He might figure that out at 25 or 26. In the meantime, if you need to get him a Tyson Chandler type of C, or I guess RoLo (whose impact I underestimated), then you do it.
I partly agree with you that he might need a bigger center(worked with Lopez) but this still isn’t the coaches fault. That’s on Paxson and the front office. They could of made a move to to get Capela or better yet Drummond but they didn’t even try.

Having said that though Lauri is still to blame for his performances. As I said before he can blame coaches, players and the whole world if he wants to but at the end of the day he can’t depend on others ,it’s on him. He needs to work hard and improve his craft. Hopefully your right and he will get better with age but the examples you gave Bosh/ Dirk they both were very good players from the very beginning and they grew more over time.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#92 » by TeamMan » Fri Feb 7, 2020 9:46 pm

Went through the thread and I have some thoughts...

- Early in the season there appeared to be something going on between Lauri and some of the other players.
- It seemed to improve over time, but my take was that he'd accepted his position and was gutting it out.
- However, even when he was playing well, I almost never saw him smile.
- After he was injured though, it seemed to me (watching him on the bench) that he was more relaxed, and maybe even happy to take a break.

Conclusion: We can all speculate, but the next shoe to drop will be this summer. If he signs an extension then, obviously, he's staying. But if he doesn't, then it will be because he wants to see if he can find a better situation.

The question will become, how much money does another team have to offer him to make the Bulls let him go.

He's already a legend in Finland, so he doesn't really need extra money. Whatever he makes will be more than enough.

But my guess is that he wants to be competing for a championship, and has already figured out that it's not going to happen with the Bulls.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#93 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 7, 2020 9:51 pm

dougthonus wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:In both of these cases, both shooters average 35%. However, one is not like the other. The blue line is what you would consider a TRUE 35% shooter. He averages around 35% game to game. Lauri's season this year was the red line with a clean break at Dec 1st. He had a similar distribution last year when he fell off a cliff after that fatigue issue.

Now which do you think the "true healthy Lauri" is closer to? I say 40% because we have info that he WAS injured earlier. It's not unreported. It was literally in every Boylen postgame. Always along the lines of "I'm proud of Lauri. He's going through some things but he's battling. He wants to be out there for the team".

You would be well within your rights to say he's closer to a 30% shooter because injuries are a part of the game and Lauri is seems to be consistently injured. But I don't think it's a good conclusion to average the two and say he's just a 35% shooter. When Lauri is on, he is on. When he is not, he is not. There is very rarely middle ground 35% for him.


I think Lauri has over 1000 career attempts from three and averages 35%. He has had a reasonably close total amount of threes in each of the three years, so splitting that sample into rough 3rds, you still have about 35% each time. I think it is possible that Lauri could have a 40% year or a 38% year, but I wouldn't consider a number around 36% more likely than either.


Cool? :dontknow: I mean each of those season have been different. It's a coincidence it lines up at 35%. His first season he truly was a 35% streaky shooter. His second season he was closer to 38%. If they had shut him down at the first instance of fatigue instead of letting him die on the court for the last 2 weeks, his overall season 3 point percentage would have been at 38%. Would that have made him a vastly better shooter? No not to me. But maybe it would have in your eyes.

This season it's closer to 40%. I showed you how the same number could mean different things. I didn't pull it out of a hat. Lauri's season literally has looked like that. Here is his rolling average (10 games averages) for this current season. Do you see the step pattern I described? The difference is statistically significant enough to be considered an outlier. The dip at the end even coincides with the timing of his rolled ankle.
Image


---
EDIT: Here is season 2 which includes the ups and downs of a season. Can you see where the outlier fatigue issue is? Lauri was streaky last season too. Streaky with an average of 38% if you remove that outlier. This current season is the first season where he is consistent with his shot.

Image
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#94 » by dougthonus » Fri Feb 7, 2020 10:25 pm

PaKii94 wrote:Cool? :dontknow: I mean each of those season have been different. It's a coincidence it lines up at 35%. His first season he truly was a 35% streaky shooter. His second season he was closer to 38%. If they had shut him down at the first instance of fatigue instead of letting him die on the court for the last 2 weeks, his overall season 3 point percentage would have been at 38%. Would that have made him a vastly better shooter? No not to me. But maybe it would have in your eyes.


Shutting someone down for fatigue, literally, the only time I've seen that in the NBA, doesn't bode well for Lauri regardless of when it happens. What's to make you think Lauri won't suffer fatigue again if he has to play a full season? What if they asked him to play all the time and not stop because he was tired? Maybe he'd have dropped to much lower percentages. This excuse seems to be one that works against the thought that he's going to be a full year player at 38%.

This season it's closer to 40%. I showed you how the same number could mean different things. I didn't pull it out of a hat. Lauri's season literally has looked like that. Here is his rolling average (10 games averages) for this current season. Do you see the step pattern I described? The difference is statistically significant enough to be considered an outlier. The dip at the end even coincides with the timing of his rolled ankle.


I think a lot of guys have patterns that are like that. They are hot for awhile, and then they aren't. I just don't think it is enough to say the norm is the high number and the slump is due to some abnormality that won't ever come up again. Again, not sure why you just throw out the numbers at the beginning of the season when he was ice cold. He was battling through being sore or banged up? Well, so is the rest of the NBA, why do you think that won't be the case next year?
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#95 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 7, 2020 10:32 pm

dougthonus wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:Cool? :dontknow: I mean each of those season have been different. It's a coincidence it lines up at 35%. His first season he truly was a 35% streaky shooter. His second season he was closer to 38%. If they had shut him down at the first instance of fatigue instead of letting him die on the court for the last 2 weeks, his overall season 3 point percentage would have been at 38%. Would that have made him a vastly better shooter? No not to me. But maybe it would have in your eyes.


Shutting someone down for fatigue, literally, the only time I've seen that in the NBA, doesn't bode well for Lauri regardless of when it happens. What's to make you think Lauri won't suffer fatigue again if he has to play a full season? What if they asked him to play all the time and not stop because he was tired? Maybe he'd have dropped to much lower percentages. This excuse seems to be one that works against the thought that he's going to be a full year player at 38%.

This season it's closer to 40%. I showed you how the same number could mean different things. I didn't pull it out of a hat. Lauri's season literally has looked like that. Here is his rolling average (10 games averages) for this current season. Do you see the step pattern I described? The difference is statistically significant enough to be considered an outlier. The dip at the end even coincides with the timing of his rolled ankle.


I think a lot of guys have patterns that are like that. They are hot for awhile, and then they aren't. I just don't think it is enough to say the norm is the high number and the slump is due to some abnormality that won't ever come up again. Again, not sure why you just throw out the numbers at the beginning of the season when he was ice cold. He was battling through being sore or banged up? Well, so is the rest of the NBA, why do you think that won't be the case next year?


See but that's a different discussion and I agree with you. The pattern shows fatigue/injured/banged up Lauri is a bad player. And if Lauri is consistently injured then yes that's a MAJOR cause for concern. I would hope it's something he can get away from or get used to it but if past performance is an indication of how he will perform while banged up, that's damning for him.


BUT I dissagree lot of guys have patterns like that. Normal/healthy play does have ups and downs (like Lauri did in his second season) and that's when the averages are accurate. Not many players go through distinct cuts in levels of play over extended periods of time. You can see the ups and downs for both the "bad" play at the beginning and "good" play at the end. The ups and downs for the bad play average at 30%. The ups and downs of good play average at 40%. Give me an example of someone who has gone through this over two months (without injuries) and I'll drop it but I am 90% sure you can't.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#96 » by transplant » Fri Feb 7, 2020 10:33 pm

PaKii94 wrote:
transplant wrote:I'm a Markkanen fan.

The NBA is a players league. Unlike high school and college where players need to conform to the system, in the NBA, the better teams fit their systems to enhance the ability of their players.

This said, none of this explains/excuses the fact that Markkanen missed way too many open 3s when he was supposedly healthy.

I don't much care if Markkanen wants out or not. Either way, he needs to get healthy and play well.


Idk where you got he was healthy from. He was not healthy. but yeah he needs to hit his open 3s regardless.

IDK where you got that he was not healthy.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#97 » by League Circles » Fri Feb 7, 2020 10:36 pm

Even if he is going to be a 38% 3-point shooter going forward long-term that does still doesn't necessarily make him a high-quality player. He doesn't bring much else to the table.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#98 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 7, 2020 10:41 pm

transplant wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:
transplant wrote:I'm a Markkanen fan.

The NBA is a players league. Unlike high school and college where players need to conform to the system, in the NBA, the better teams fit their systems to enhance the ability of their players.

This said, none of this explains/excuses the fact that Markkanen missed way too many open 3s when he was supposedly healthy.

I don't much care if Markkanen wants out or not. Either way, he needs to get healthy and play well.


Idk where you got he was healthy from. He was not healthy. but yeah he needs to hit his open 3s regardless.

IDK where you got that he was not healthy.


Nov 1st
"Otto (Porter) sat out a fourth quarter in Memphis. Sometimes I’m going to ride with a guy.," Boylen said. "[Lauri] had an injury tonight. So I don’t think that really applies. Hopefully he’ll be OK and he’ll be back.""


https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bulls/lauri-markkanen-falls-out-closing-rotation-2nd-straight-game


Nov 12th
Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen has been playing with a sore oblique muscle for two weeks, coach Jim Boylen said Tuesday.

“If you’ve ever had one of those, it’s just a weird injury,” Boylen told reporters at the Advocate Center hours before the Bulls played host to the Knicks. “It’s not enough to keep you out; it’s not enough to stop your momentum. But it’s enough to maybe influence how you do things and how you play, and he’s fought through it and I’m really proud of him.”


https://www.blogabull.com/2019/11/12/20961792/lauri-markkanen-is-hurt-and-the-bulls-belatedly-just-mentioned-it

Hmmmmm is this the fake news Our Supreme Leader Trump has been warning us about? hmmmm :roll:


http://m.mlb.com/glossary/injuries/oblique-strain
Using MLB's Health and Injury Tracking System (HITS), the study ultimately revealed that hitters typically take 27 days to recover from a Grade 1 strain, while pitchers typically take as many as 35 days.


27 days recovery on average for a grade 1 strain so roughly 4 weeks (IF it's not restrained), which coincides with 1 month of poor play in November.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#99 » by PaKii94 » Fri Feb 7, 2020 10:45 pm

League Circles wrote:Even if he is going to be a 38% 3-point shooter going forward long-term that does still doesn't necessarily make him a high-quality player. He doesn't bring much else to the table.


True valid point. We saw 40% spacer Lauri for a month but it wasn't enough production regardless. His draw as a prospect was all the other offensive skills we saw PLUS a high level shot and average other stuff. We need more from him.
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Re: Rumor: Lauri wants out. 

Post#100 » by dice » Fri Feb 7, 2020 11:46 pm

Hold That wrote:
dice wrote:
Hold That wrote:I think he might have the second highest trade value on this team. Wendell is always hurt and haven’t even shown enough yet to warrant anything decent at this point

no chance. wendell plays defense and is competent offensively. lauri is competent offensively and plays little defense. plus wendell has an extra year on a cheap deal

I agree with everything you said but I highly doubt the rest of the league shares that sentiment of Wendell being more valued than Lauri. Wendell hasn’t even proven he can stay on the court in his first two years. All of what you said is fine and quite possibly true what does it all mean if you can’t stay on the court

lauri hasn't been particularly healthy either
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