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Pick retention tracking thread

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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#81 » by DuckIII » Sat May 8, 2021 2:17 pm

Am2626 wrote:
DuckIII wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
Just curious if you have always thought this way or came to this conclusion over time. This was my initial reaction to the trade, but it didn't seem widely shared.

Interestingly, the most important of the unlikely dominoes (keeping our pick) moved from need a ton of luck to somewhat reasonable given our implosion and Zach's COVID absence.


I didn’t come out of the gates breathing fire angry, but found it highly questionable because it failed to address our desperate need for a playmaker with limited assets in which to do so later. Specifically, I said we need to land Lonzo or this looks like a bad and restrictive deal.

I realize I have a higher opinion of Lonzo than many Bulls fans, but I still think landing him salvages some issues with this trade.

Regardless, that is a remote possibility. As is the even better outcome, which would be jumping into the top 4.

Summary: I was uncomfortable with this deal immediately because the logic of it was contingent on other uncontrollable, unrealized outcomes. I still feel that way today, but the concern is amplified.

P.S. In fairness, I do have a bias. My view of team building is more in line with Paxson’s anyway. Stay flexible and accumulate assets. Don’t make the “big move” unless it’s a pretty clear path. Many fans don’t have patience for the “flexibility” model and it even became a mocking meme around here with negative connotations. But I’m afraid those fans are about to get a 5 year taste of the downside of the other, long desired, approach. Be careful what you wish for.


I have no problems with the approach of remaining flexible but for whatever reason the prior regime never used that flexibility. They just let it expire maybe because they overvalued their guys, were too risk adverse, etc. Something different needed to be done and with a guy like LaVine on your roster I think you have to try and work with what you have rather then blow this thing up again. I think the Bulls would have lost a lot of fans if they took that approach. GarPax were hated amongst most fans and if a new GM came in and continued the same course I don’t think he would have been able to have success. There just has been too much losing and disappointment in the last several years. If this doesn’t work out it’s not like it’s anything new as this organization has been a failure for quite a long time.


Oh, I have no doubt at all that this is a mandate from ownership. Or at minimum was how AK sold himself during the interview process. “I will aggressively overhaul this roster to get this team into the playoffs ASAP.”

That’s a perfectly reasonable and likely 100% accurate explanation for what AK did. But there being an explanation does’t mean it was smart. It just means is was expected or required.

Anyway, as I’ve always said, it can still work out. I just think if you really dig into all the considerations, it’s extremely unlikely and could end up being absolutely devastating to the franchise in the longer term.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#82 » by Michael Jackson » Sat May 8, 2021 5:28 pm

I agree that the Vuc trade was definitely a plan of both AK and the Org to change the optics of the team. From never having been the guys to make a move to now making a move. Hiring an established coach... optics for sure IMHO. I also don't know that it is smart but I understand the motivation. I don't hate the path of getting a decent squad to be attractive as a FA or trade destination as that seems the current trend. Its a terrible move for say OKC... but Chicago's market is big enough that the gamble has potential to pay off. We are in this lane though now for sure, unless we get a top and we end up scrapping vac and ravine for picks.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#83 » by DJhitek » Sat May 8, 2021 5:46 pm

dougthonus wrote:
DuckIII wrote:P.S. In fairness, I do have a bias. My view of team building is more in line with Paxson’s anyway. Stay flexible and accumulate assets. Don’t make the “big move” unless it’s a pretty clear path. Many fans don’t have patience for the “flexibility” model and it even became a mocking meme around here with negative connotations. But I’m afraid those fans are about to get a 5 year taste of the downside of the other, long desires, approach. Be careful what you wish for.


Sam Presti probably most sums up my philosophy with GMing so far of all the GMs out there. I like the flexibility model, but I probably would have been a bit more extreme in maximizing my losses and flipping my short term assets if I were GarPax.


Agreed, if rebuilding is the game, getting as many dart throws as humanely possible is important IMO. Trading assets for better players isn’t a bad idea, but it obviously has to be for the right players at the right positions.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#84 » by Wingy » Sun May 9, 2021 10:33 am

It’s clear we’re trending the wrong way for pick retention odds. I think we have an outside chance of catching Indy for The Putrid Playin. Unlikely, but not impossible for us to go 4-1 to close out. Maybe the Bucks have nothing to play for in the last game, and sit starters.

Indy getting only one win moving forward is the trick (we own tie breaker). They’re still competing despite coach drama. They’ve got Cleveland coming off a b2b next, so that seems like a lock W. Then they get Sixers, Bucks, Lakers (w/motivated ‘Bron?) Raps. First three teams are obviously tough for Indy. Comes down to the Raptors. Have they secured their lottery position by then, and maybe want to end the year with a win?
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#85 » by Wingy » Fri May 14, 2021 5:53 am

Sucks. We’re gonna end up in a 3-way tie for 8th. Kings/Pels have nothing to play for, and have opponents who do.

Meanwhile, we’ll lose to Nets, but then Milwaukee will sit everyone for their last game. They’ll see the Nets will be blowing out the Cavs before our game even starts, and have nothing to play for.

We’ll get the final slap in the face win to lower our odds even more.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#86 » by Am2626 » Fri May 14, 2021 7:31 am

Wingy wrote:Sucks. We’re gonna end up in a 3-way tie for 8th. Kings/Pels have nothing to play for, and have opponents who do.

Meanwhile, we’ll lose to Nets, but then Milwaukee will sit everyone for their last game. They’ll see the Nets will be blowing out the Cavs before our game even starts, and have nothing to play for.

We’ll get the final slap in the face win to lower our odds even more.


The Raptors held out 8 players for their game today. Why can’t the Bulls do the same if they have nothing to play for at that point? It’s just pure stupidity if they try to go all out at the expense of impacting their draft position.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#87 » by Wingy » Fri May 14, 2021 11:31 am

Am2626 wrote:The Raptors held out 8 players for their game today. Why can’t the Bulls do the same if they have nothing to play for at that point? It’s just pure stupidity if they try to go all out at the expense of impacting their draft position.


You answered your own question my Bulls friend.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#88 » by DuckIII » Fri May 14, 2021 1:02 pm

Am2626 wrote:
Wingy wrote:Sucks. We’re gonna end up in a 3-way tie for 8th. Kings/Pels have nothing to play for, and have opponents who do.

Meanwhile, we’ll lose to Nets, but then Milwaukee will sit everyone for their last game. They’ll see the Nets will be blowing out the Cavs before our game even starts, and have nothing to play for.

We’ll get the final slap in the face win to lower our odds even more.


The Raptors held out 8 players for their game today. Why can’t the Bulls do the same if they have nothing to play for at that point? It’s just pure stupidity if they try to go all out at the expense of impacting their draft position.


Because the Bulls are trying to make the playoffs.

AK’s whole plan is to make the Bulls as “competitive” as possible as fast as possible to retain Zach and attract free agents/disgruntled stars.

He told us he does not care about the draft and he meant it.

Is it a colossally stupid plan? Maybe not the ideal language, but it’s certainly extremely risky and in my opinion likely to fail miserably.

But to be clear, the Bulls will do everything they can to make the play-in unless or until they are mathematically eliminated.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#89 » by MGB8 » Fri May 14, 2021 1:24 pm

Wizards have the Cavs and the Hornets - while it's possible that they lose out, I think it's unlikely. Westbrook, for all of his flaws, has basically willed this team into the play-in (with the Wiz starting deep bench guard Raul Neto at the offensive 3 for much of this run) - and I don't see him allowing the Wiz to lose both games against a bad and a not-good team. So play-in is highly unlikely for the Bulls even if they do win out.

Bulls probably won't win out given that Brooklyn got Harden back, just spanked them, and are also fighting for positioning - potentially the #1 seed, or potentially dropping to #3.

The issue is dropping from the current 7th spot to 8th or 9th, which with the Bulls recent wins (particularly against Boston, which was unexpected) is a real possibility.

Pelicans look like they will lose out given that they are playing the Warriors (fighting for positioning and have won their last 3 and 6 of their last 7) and the Lakers (also fighting for positioning).

They are currently 1 game ahead of the Bulls, so if they lose out and the Bulls win out, the Bulls jump them.

Otherwise, tied. Kings are also one game ahead, but a much deeper team than the Pelicans. That said, they also seem to be tanking with holding players out - or, like last night only playing Holmes for 10 minutes. They just lost to the Grizz last night (which hurts - and it was by only 6 - so if Holmes had played a full 30 or so minutes...), and have them again tonight.

Then the Jazz. Depending on whether the Suns beat the Spurs tomorrow (with the Jazz likely to beat the Thunder) the Jazz may have incentive to try very hard to beat the Kings (though the Jazz are depleted with Mitchell out until the playoffs and Conley banged up).

This does make me want to hope that the lotto is in fact rigged and tankers will not see the Balls bounce their way (as opposed to simply bad teams).
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#90 » by thedarkstark » Fri May 14, 2021 2:08 pm

Bulls were slotted 9th when the lotto balls bounced their way for Derrick Rose, let's hope history repeats itself.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#91 » by Red8911 » Fri May 14, 2021 3:01 pm

Am2626 wrote:
Wingy wrote:Sucks. We’re gonna end up in a 3-way tie for 8th. Kings/Pels have nothing to play for, and have opponents who do.

Meanwhile, we’ll lose to Nets, but then Milwaukee will sit everyone for their last game. They’ll see the Nets will be blowing out the Cavs before our game even starts, and have nothing to play for.

We’ll get the final slap in the face win to lower our odds even more.


The Raptors held out 8 players for their game today. Why can’t the Bulls do the same if they have nothing to play for at that point? It’s just pure stupidity if they try to go all out at the expense of impacting their draft position.

Bulls can still make the play ins, they did have something to play for this whole time. If the Wizards win tonight then the bulls will probably not play any of their better players for the nets and Bucks game.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#92 » by fleet » Fri May 14, 2021 4:29 pm

DuckIII wrote:
Am2626 wrote:
Wingy wrote:Sucks. We’re gonna end up in a 3-way tie for 8th. Kings/Pels have nothing to play for, and have opponents who do.

Meanwhile, we’ll lose to Nets, but then Milwaukee will sit everyone for their last game. They’ll see the Nets will be blowing out the Cavs before our game even starts, and have nothing to play for.

We’ll get the final slap in the face win to lower our odds even more.


The Raptors held out 8 players for their game today. Why can’t the Bulls do the same if they have nothing to play for at that point? It’s just pure stupidity if they try to go all out at the expense of impacting their draft position.


Because the Bulls are trying to make the playoffs.

AK’s whole plan is to make the Bulls as “competitive” as possible as fast as possible to retain Zach and attract free agents/disgruntled stars.

He told us he does not care about the draft and he meant it.

Is it a colossally stupid plan? Maybe not the ideal language, but it’s certainly extremely risky and in my opinion likely to fail miserably.

But to be clear, the Bulls will do everything they can to make the play-in unless or until they are mathematically eliminated.

And that…. is why we suck.

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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#93 » by Am2626 » Fri May 14, 2021 4:40 pm

DuckIII wrote:
Am2626 wrote:
Wingy wrote:Sucks. We’re gonna end up in a 3-way tie for 8th. Kings/Pels have nothing to play for, and have opponents who do.

Meanwhile, we’ll lose to Nets, but then Milwaukee will sit everyone for their last game. They’ll see the Nets will be blowing out the Cavs before our game even starts, and have nothing to play for.

We’ll get the final slap in the face win to lower our odds even more.


The Raptors held out 8 players for their game today. Why can’t the Bulls do the same if they have nothing to play for at that point? It’s just pure stupidity if they try to go all out at the expense of impacting their draft position.


Because the Bulls are trying to make the playoffs.

AK’s whole plan is to make the Bulls as “competitive” as possible as fast as possible to retain Zach and attract free agents/disgruntled stars.

He told us he does not care about the draft and he meant it.

Is it a colossally stupid plan? Maybe not the ideal language, but it’s certainly extremely risky and in my opinion likely to fail miserably.

But to be clear, the Bulls will do everything they can to make the play-in unless or until they are mathematically eliminated.


At that point though the Bulls would be mathematically eliminated. It’s all going to come down to tonight’s Washington Cleveland game. If Washington wins as is expected the Bulls will have nothing to play for at that point. Many of us still believe that the Bulls will still continue to try and win games which at that point would be pure stupidity.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#94 » by Am2626 » Fri May 14, 2021 4:44 pm

MGB8 wrote:Wizards have the Cavs and the Hornets - while it's possible that they lose out, I think it's unlikely. Westbrook, for all of his flaws, has basically willed this team into the play-in (with the Wiz starting deep bench guard Raul Neto at the offensive 3 for much of this run) - and I don't see him allowing the Wiz to lose both games against a bad and a not-good team. So play-in is highly unlikely for the Bulls even if they do win out.

Bulls probably won't win out given that Brooklyn got Harden back, just spanked them, and are also fighting for positioning - potentially the #1 seed, or potentially dropping to #3.

The issue is dropping from the current 7th spot to 8th or 9th, which with the Bulls recent wins (particularly against Boston, which was unexpected) is a real possibility.

Pelicans look like they will lose out given that they are playing the Warriors (fighting for positioning and have won their last 3 and 6 of their last 7) and the Lakers (also fighting for positioning).

They are currently 1 game ahead of the Bulls, so if they lose out and the Bulls win out, the Bulls jump them.

Otherwise, tied. Kings are also one game ahead, but a much deeper team than the Pelicans. That said, they also seem to be tanking with holding players out - or, like last night only playing Holmes for 10 minutes. They just lost to the Grizz last night (which hurts - and it was by only 6 - so if Holmes had played a full 30 or so minutes...), and have them again tonight.

Then the Jazz. Depending on whether the Suns beat the Spurs tomorrow (with the Jazz likely to beat the Thunder) the Jazz may have incentive to try very hard to beat the Kings (though the Jazz are depleted with Mitchell out until the playoffs and Conley banged up).

This does make me want to hope that the lotto is in fact rigged and tankers will not see the Balls bounce their way (as opposed to simply bad teams).


The 7 spot is no longer a possibility. Bulls will finish anywhere from 8 to 10.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#95 » by sco » Fri May 14, 2021 5:43 pm

Part of me wants to just rip the band-aid off and not have a 1st this offseason. Entitlement minutes for young guys has been our second biggest reason for losses behind injuries. Fill this roster with efficient 2-way vets like Temple and Young and let's lean on Zach/Vuc to carry the load offensively!
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#96 » by drosestruts » Fri May 14, 2021 6:52 pm

I don't think the lottery is rigged but I do believe in the basketball gods. I'm hopeful the Bulls will be rewarded for their effort to actually be good and receive a top-4 pick.

On the team-building side of things. I liked what Paxson was doing during the Baby Bulls era with the mix of young guys and vets. Those 2003 - 2008 years we had guys like Pippen, Antonio Davis, Jalen Rose, Kendall Gill, Corrie Blount, Piatowski, Adrian Griffin, PJ Brown, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Brad Miller, John Salmons to compliment guys like Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Noah, Duhon, Rose, etc.

In recent years we seemed to move away from that, like outside of Thad young last year - who's the veteran out there? Otto Porter? The year before that we had Rolo and really no other significant veteran. We were missing the mix.


I'm also not a big Hinkie guy and am waiting to see what Presti's goal is down in OKC - but if there was a franchise I would recently model after it would be Denver, Utah, and until recently Houston. These teams were always shooting for the playoffs, and relied on trades, free agency, and good drafting to boost their team's ceiling. Yeah tanking into a generational player is nice, but it's not really much of a strategy. These execs get paid millions of dollars, tanking and crossing your fingers is a plan anybody can execute. It's kind of bull in all honesty. The job's supposed to be hard, the pay they receive shows that.

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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#97 » by drosestruts » Fri May 14, 2021 7:00 pm

sco wrote:Part of me wants to just rip the band-aid off and not have a 1st this offseason. Entitlement minutes for young guys has been our second biggest reason for losses behind injuries. Fill this roster with efficient 2-way vets like Temple and Young and let's lean on Zach/Vuc to carry the load offensively!


I'm admittingly a flip-flopper on the play them vs make them earn their minutes stance. I do think it can negatively impact a player when it seems like you're punishing them by moving them to the bench like what happened with Lauri and White this year. Two players who probably didn't deserve the starting spots they were given, Now we have Williams, whose started most games, though Temple and Trow Brown probably both provide more on the court at this point.

So what happens if we sign a wing this offseason in free agency? How does Williams respond?

The flip-side of playing your rookies in recent NBA coaching has been Thibs. This season alone Knicks fans have been pleading at times for him to play Quickley more yet he continues to start Payton. Would Quickley have been as good if he was simply gifted entitlement minutes right for the start of the season? I think Quickley is playing better than Williams at this point. Is he simply just better and a bunch of teams missed on him? Is New York's development staff better than the Bulls. Does the way the players have been used this season had an effect on their development? There's lots of potential factors contributing to the growth/lack of growth for both players so I'm not sure it's as simple as it being only one thing.

As of this time, right now, I wish we hadn't started Williams from the jump, simply because it's hard to then go back on that decision later.

I also strongly believe the lack of a good point guard, and the lack of quality veteran players overall has been detrimental to the development of recent draftees like Lauri, Carter, Gafford, White, etc.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#98 » by GoBlue72391 » Fri May 14, 2021 7:00 pm

So what exactly needs to happen in order for us to make the play-in? We win out and Wizards lose out?
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#99 » by kodo » Fri May 14, 2021 7:38 pm

GoBlue72391 wrote:So what exactly needs to happen in order for us to make the play-in? We win out and Wizards lose out?


Bulls wins over Brooklyn & Milwaukee.
Wizard losses to Cleveland & Charlotte.
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Re: Pick retention tracking thread 

Post#100 » by sco » Fri May 14, 2021 7:45 pm

kodo wrote:
GoBlue72391 wrote:So what exactly needs to happen in order for us to make the play-in? We win out and Wizards lose out?


Bulls wins over Brooklyn & Milwaukee.
Wizard losses to Cleveland & Charlotte.

What does that parlay pay out?
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