ESPN Weekly Power Rankings

[FriedRise]

538 says we're 12th.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/

There are 11 teams better than the Chicago Bulls

i was scrolling down the list and got to the clippers and thought, "well, obviously this is goofy just based on this season, but i get why they'd be higher than us based on their roster at full strength."

then i got to the 76ers and was like "ehhhhh....i guess if it's still factoring ben simmons as a guy on the roster?"

then i got to the celtics and mavericks and i had no choice but to lol. i've said it once and i'll say it again: 538's basketball metrics are trash

Isn't that the site that labeled DDR as a "Dubious Starter" for us? Ah, yes it was. Useless crap analysis.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-player-projections/demar-derozan/

Look at that dropoff!

You can be really really good at everything but if your 3PT frequency is low, DUBIOUS STARTER!

[MrSparkle]

If I’m understanding correctly…

538 uses historical similarity scores to a player-X weighing +/-… and then they don’t take into account external circumstances that may have caused a drop-off the following year(s). For example, Dantley broke his leg near the end of his NBA career, causing his numbers to plummet upon limited return, and then he played ball in Italy. Which as Derozan’s #1 rpm similarity comp for the two individual seasons (last year on Spurs vs. the season before Dantley broke his leg), I guess it explains why his production was supposed to plummet to virtually zero (coupled with declining 3PAs).

Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s what my wiki digging came up with after the infamous “dubious starter” label. And if so, not only are random variables not considered, but how do RPM and 3P numbers even translate in radically different eras? Just all seems broken.

I’d keep player comps to 7-year samples (max). That way you can compare data and player progressions from the same era. And there has to be a way to weigh player gravity (bad teammates vs quality defense and spacing). Spurs lost LMA to medical retirement, Murray to the ACL, White ankle surgery, and a thinned out roster. Also I have a tricky relationship with shooting % , particularly 3Ps. Slumps happen and they might not tell the full story of a shooter’s skill. I’d put more weight on FT% and Attempts than 3Ps.

Lastly , ball-handling is a skill entirely unaccounted for in stats. So important yet nearly impossible to define by numbers. I guess usage, assists and turnovers give some picture, but a next level formula might take into account the amount of trap defenses and ball pressure a playmaker faces.

[nomorezorro]

i think it's also thrown by derozan having bad on/off stats in the past and having a really weird development curve.

the model expects a historical "net negative" player in his age 32 season to fall off a cliff and perform worse than he did at the beginning of his prime in his mid-20s. but in reality, demar didn't actually "put it all together" until his age 26 season (which is later than usual), and he leveled up again in san antonio (which almost no player does on the other side of 30). now, he's on a team that's even more complementary to his skillset and isn't dragged down by his poor defense, so he's having a career-best season that the model doesn't know how to account for.

the real flaw is that, instead of having some built-in mechanism to project a more gentle decline for players who break the system, the model just goes right back to projecting derozan to fall off a cliff next season because in its bones it believes that he genuinely sucks.

(iirc, pecota — nate silver's baseball projections system — had a similar problem with ichiro, because his statistical profile was so unique.)

[Clocian]

Wasn't sure where to post this, but Matt Barnes likes us

Watch on YouTube

[cowraiser]

Wasn't sure where to post this, but Matt Barnes likes us

Watch on YouTube

Did I miss it, but Matt Barnes didn't have us winning the championship. He just said that our ceiling is the Finals, which I think is a much fairer assessment.

What's with the damn clickbait

[Clocian]

Wasn't sure where to post this, but Matt Barnes likes us

Watch on YouTube

Did I miss it, but Matt Barnes didn't have us winning the championship. He just said that our ceiling is the Finals, which I think is a much fairer assessment.

Classic clickbait lol

[FriedRise]

Wasn't sure where to post this, but Matt Barnes likes us

Watch on YouTube

He’s not wrong. We’re the 1st seed, our ceiling should be the Finals.

[kodo]

Read on Twitter

[nitric0]

Read on Twitter

CNt believe he jumped ship to the Nets. One of the worst “analysts” around

[bad knees]

We are 22nd in ESPN's post-draft/FA/Summer League rankings. Before those three events, we were 20th. I look forward to the Bulls proving these experts wrong.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38031459/nba-power-rankings-post-offseason-edition-changed-summer

[FriedRise]

Kinda related, but DraftKings set the win total for the Bulls at 37.5. That's good for 10th in the East with the same number of wins as Indiana and Brooklyn.

https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=wins/playoffs

[bad knees]

Kinda related, but DraftKings set the win total for the Bulls at 37.5. That's good for 10th in the East with the same number of wins as Indiana and Brooklyn.

https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=wins/playoffs

ESPN also has us 10th in the East. I imagine that this will be the typical take that we are going to hear over the next three months. The team will have plenty of bulletin board material for motivation.

[TheJordanRule]

Kinda related, but DraftKings set the win total for the Bulls at 37.5. That's good for 10th in the East with the same number of wins as Indiana and Brooklyn.

https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=wins/playoffs

ESPN also has us 10th in the East. I imagine that this will be the typical take that we are going to hear over the next three months. The team will have plenty of bulletin board material for motivation.

You could say that we had the injury bug last year, but we've always played guards and small forwards against PFs, since we had zero PFs on the roster. The injury bug is inevitable under this team's ridiculous philosophy. That's what holds us down within the 8 to 10 range. This season included.

[greenwing]

Kinda related, but DraftKings set the win total for the Bulls at 37.5. That's good for 10th in the East with the same number of wins as Indiana and Brooklyn.

https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=wins/playoffs

I'd have to believe we will have a bit of a bounce-back this year. Not necessarily a top four seed, but a playoff team for sure. My guess is if we stay healthy then we will be above Brooklyn, Atlanta and Miami (losing Strus and Vincent). Only team behind us last season that has a shot at going up the rankings IMO is Indiana. Granted, a Lillard or Harden trade could completely change the landscape, so I guess we shall see.

[Michael Jackson]

Kinda related, but DraftKings set the win total for the Bulls at 37.5. That's good for 10th in the East with the same number of wins as Indiana and Brooklyn.

https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=wins/playoffs

I'd have to believe we will have a bit of a bounce-back this year. Not necessarily a top four seed, but a playoff team for sure. My guess is if we stay healthy then we will be above Brooklyn, Atlanta and Miami (losing Strus and Vincent). Only team behind us last season that has a shot at going up the rankings IMO is Indiana. Granted, a Lillard or Harden trade could completely change the landscape, so I guess we shall see.

Of course we will make the playoffs this year. We own our pick, next year when SA gets it, it will be a much better pick.

[DASMACKDOWN]

Kinda related, but DraftKings set the win total for the Bulls at 37.5. That's good for 10th in the East with the same number of wins as Indiana and Brooklyn.

https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=wins/playoffs

I'd have to believe we will have a bit of a bounce-back this year. Not necessarily a top four seed, but a playoff team for sure. My guess is if we stay healthy then we will be above Brooklyn, Atlanta and Miami (losing Strus and Vincent). Only team behind us last season that has a shot at going up the rankings IMO is Indiana. Granted, a Lillard or Harden trade could completely change the landscape, so I guess we shall see.

Of course we will make the playoffs this year. We own our pick, next year when SA gets it, it will be a much better pick.

Don't get doom and gloomy MJ. The pick is much better protected this time around. Top 10 protected the first year and top 8 after then its turns into a second rounder.

So if we do actually reset after next season, we will most likely be in great position to keep our pick.