Lonzo Ball expected to see first action Wednesday

[dougthonus]

He's been injury prone his entire career, so one year of health isn't going to be enough to convince me to sign him to a contract extension.

Plus, if he has a decently productive year I bet another team will offer him a deal that I don't think the Bulls should match.

On top of all this will Lonzo be ok being Giddeys backup? And should the Bulls invest a lot of money in one position (PG)...?

It's a tricky situation without knowing many things, but my guess is the same fear we have of Lonzo's injury history will be around the league, and so his salary will likely be lower regardless. I'd also say unless Josh Giddey makes a huge step forward on defense or offensive efficiency that we should bench him and not offer him more than role player salary next year, because without making big improvements, he's not worth more than role player salary.

A healthy Lonzo is a much better player than Giddey, so it's really only a gamble on whether a healthy Lonzo can ever really exist. Again, I wouldn't bet on "yes" right now, but a fully healthy season, and I'd be a lot more optimistic. Granted, that's really unlikely. We're likely to get something more nebulous and harder to predict or something that makes it a very low cost contract because the risk is very big still.

[Dan Z]

I am not against him coming back on much cheaper contract if stays healthy and plays at a high level. No need to extend him. Just let it play out.

I don't trust that he'll stay healthy even if he has a good year. With that in mind I think it's best to move on.

I disagree if it’s a cheap deal.

How cheap do you think it'll be? If he has a decent season I doubt he'll take a "one year prove it deal" (which is what another poster suggested).

Also, what I just said to Doug...Lonzo has neen injury prone his entire career. If it isn't this injury whose to say another injury issue might happen? I know that's the risk with every player, but he has a bad track record when it comes to injuries.

Plus, is it smart for the Bulls to invest a lot of money in one position(PG)?

[Dan Z]

He's been injury prone his entire career, so one year of health isn't going to be enough to convince me to sign him to a contract extension.

Plus, if he has a decently productive year I bet another team will offer him a deal that I don't think the Bulls should match.

On top of all this will Lonzo be ok being Giddeys backup? And should the Bulls invest a lot of money in one position (PG)...?

It's a tricky situation without knowing many things, but my guess is the same fear we have of Lonzo's injury history will be around the league, and so his salary will likely be lower regardless. I'd also say unless Josh Giddey makes a huge step forward on defense or offensive efficiency that we should bench him and not offer him more than role player salary next year, because without making big improvements, he's not worth more than role player salary.

A healthy Lonzo is a much better player than Giddey, so it's really only a gamble on whether a healthy Lonzo can ever really exist. Again, I wouldn't bet on "yes" right now, but a fully healthy season, and I'd be a lot more optimistic. Granted, that's really unlikely. We're likely to get something more nebulous and harder to predict or something that makes it a very low cost contract because the risk is very big still.

Don't you think one of them will want to be a starter going forward? I think one reason why Giddey wanted out of OKC is because he didn't want to be benched...? You think Giddey will be ok coming off the bench going forward?

My two cents is that I wouldn't gamble on Lonzo staying healthy going forward, but who knows (as you point out). With the way NBA salaries are now I imagine that even a "small" contract ends up being bigger than I think they should pay him.

[dougthonus]

Don't you think one of them will want to be a starter going forward? I think one reason why Giddey wanted out of OKC is because he didn't want to be benched...? You think Giddey will be ok coming off the bench going forward?

I don't really care what Giddey wants if he can't become either a good defender or highly efficient offensive player. Without doing at least one of these things he simply isn't a good player. He's incredibly difficult to build a roster on and was benched on a team that had great defense and great shooting, so even surrounding him with such players didn't work.

I like Giddey as a buy low prospect, but you should absolutely be willing to walk away from him at season's end. There's no reason to pay him starter money and start him if he can't bring a starting quality game to the floor, and right now, he doesn't. He has a ton of skill in really hard to build things, but he's lacking the two most important things in the league, and all that other skill isn't enough to make up for that unless he makes big improvements.

My two cents is that I wouldn't gamble on Lonzo staying healthy going forward, but who knows (as you point out). With the way NBA salaries are now I imagine that even a "small" contract ends up being bigger than I think they should pay him.

I think the contract risk on Giddey will end up being much larger than Lonzo, but it's just predicting and projecting without merit at this point. I think the Bulls will start Giddey all season long, ignore the things I say above, pay him based on counting stats rather than in game impact. Lonzo has a much wider variance, but it's hard for me to see him getting more than 20M a year next year regardless of what happens this year, and I think the scenarios where you'd want to keep him will have him priced around the MLE.

That said, all of my predicting of what guys will be worth in a year is obviously incredibly flawed and based on nothing, so I freely acknowledge that too

[Dan Z]

Don't you think one of them will want to be a starter going forward? I think one reason why Giddey wanted out of OKC is because he didn't want to be benched...? You think Giddey will be ok coming off the bench going forward?

I don't really care what Giddey wants if he can't become either a good defender or highly efficient offensive player. Without doing at least one of these things he simply isn't a good player. He's incredibly difficult to build a roster on and was benched on a team that had great defense and great shooting, so even surrounding him with such players didn't work.

I like Giddey as a buy low prospect, but you should absolutely be willing to walk away from him at season's end. There's no reason to pay him starter money and start him if he can't bring a starting quality game to the floor, and right now, he doesn't. He has a ton of skill in really hard to build things, but he's lacking the two most important things in the league, and all that other skill isn't enough to make up for that unless he makes big improvements.

My two cents is that I wouldn't gamble on Lonzo staying healthy going forward, but who knows (as you point out). With the way NBA salaries are now I imagine that even a "small" contract ends up being bigger than I think they should pay him.

I think the contract risk on Giddey will end up being much larger than Lonzo, but it's just predicting and projecting without merit at this point. I think the Bulls will start Giddey all season long, ignore the things I say above, pay him based on counting stats rather than in game impact. Lonzo has a much wider variance, but it's hard for me to see him getting more than 20M a year next year regardless of what happens this year, and I think the scenarios where you'd want to keep him will have him priced around the MLE.

That said, all of my predicting of what guys will be worth in a year is obviously incredibly flawed and based on nothing, so I freely acknowledge that too

I agree with you about Giddey and think AKME will pay him based on what you said above (that I put in bold). I also bet that AKME sees him as the future starter even beyond this year.

At 20 million per year Id move on from Lonzo and it's for the reasons Ive already said about his history of injuries. In his 7 year career the most he's played in one season is 63 games. He averages around 50 per season if you don't count the last two years (actually you might have to take out his 35 game season too).

[WindyCityBorn]

So what do think is maximum minutes Ball will be allowed to play this season? Think he could ever get up to around 25 or more? Maybe the second half of the season if he stays healthy?

Prob 25 and max is playing back to backs. He will need to play back to backs to get a new contact more than one year prove it deal for cheap.

I honestly don’t think he is worried about his next contract. Just making it through the season healthy has to be priority number one. Not proving anything to GMs around the league.

[Jcool0]

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[ChiTownHero1992]

Well atleast its not a knee injury...

[sco]

Ugh. Kicked in our Ball.

[Red8911]

With this guy we don’t know if it’s 10 days, 10 months or 2.5 years.

[Dan Z]

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No surprise. Like I said in this thread I don't trust his health, even if he's fully recovered from his knee injury.

[WindyCityBorn]

With this guy we don’t know if it’s 10 days, 10 months or 2.5 years.

As long as it not a lower body injury it’s OK or anything that requires surgery it’s fine.Before the season started I said 50 plus games would be a great result.

[WindyCityBorn]

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No surprise. Like I said in this thread I don't trust his health, even if he's fully recovered from his knee injury.

We are not cdepending on him so it’s not the biggest deal. Hopefully Giddey is ready to play 30 minutes a night now. They have been really cautious with him too. Giddey, Coby, Ayo and Zach all need to play 30 plus for us win games when Lonzo is out. Can’t have Terry playing 20 plus minutes. He has zero scoring ability.

[CROBulls]

First 10 days of expected injuries. I Count he gonna miss 60-80 days of overall Season on small nagging injuries. That’s why regardless how Lonzo Looks you dont count on him

[Dan Z]

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No surprise. Like I said in this thread I don't trust his health, even if he's fully recovered from his knee injury.

We are not cdepending on him so it’s not the biggest deal. Hopefully Giddey is ready to play 30 minutes a night now. They have been really cautious with him too. Giddey, Coby, Ayo and Zach all need to play 30 plus for us win games when Lonzo is out. Can’t have Terry playing 20 plus minutes. He has zero scoring ability.

I agree, but I'm also thinking about the future of the team. His history of injuries is why I think they should move on from him when the season ends.

[DuallyNoted]

ship him to wherever his probably also injured brother is playing so they can go be irrelevant together

[jnrjr79]

Lonzo Ball was the most valuable player on the Bulls during the games he played in the 21-22 season.

Lonzo Ball was arguably the most impactful player per minute on the floor in his first game back in over 1000 days.

It’s hard to imagine he’s past all his major injuries but he’s his own kind of unicorn. 3 and D, guards 1-3 and sometimes 4's, floor general and gets everyone organized like only a handful of players in the league can, probably top 5 basketball IQ currently in the game, can be a primary ball handler or a floor spacer, only 26 years old.

If healthy, there is not one team in the league he could not improve in my opinion. I think the Bulls might have to consider extending him if he’s healthy through the next few months. He’s very grateful to them right now, would he take a 3 year extension with a team option on the 3rd for 15M or so a year. Worst case the Bulls eat 30 to 40 more mil when they are still bad to mediocre. Best case it’s one of the best contracts in the league. Probably would not take it but 30+ mil guaranteed when he wasn’t sure he’d ever play again is something, might feel like he owes them a team.

It would be a shame to see him sign a mid level somewhere else next year and not reap the rewards of the Bulls genuine patience and good will with him.

I disagree on any loyalty discounts. No matter which team he was on, he wou have been paid his guaranteed contract. It's a business, he doesn't owe the Bills anything.

I'm curious where it goes from here, but it's way too early to decide.

A lot of teams would have medically retired him.

Given he has consistently been rehabbing/trying to come back and has now done so successfully, it seems doubtful those efforts would have succeeded (and Lonzo gets paid his full salary either way).

[Guru]

With this guy we don’t know if it’s 10 days, 10 months or 2.5 years.

As long as it not a lower body injury it’s OK or anything that requires surgery it’s fine.Before the season started I said 50 plus games would be a great result.

And he can continue his conditioning.

[Indomitable]

I disagree on any loyalty discounts. No matter which team he was on, he wou have been paid his guaranteed contract. It's a business, he doesn't owe the Bills anything.

I'm curious where it goes from here, but it's way too early to decide.

A lot of teams would have medically retired him.

Given he has consistently been rehabbing/trying to come back and has now done so successfully, it seems doubtful those efforts would have succeeded (and Lonzo gets paid his full salary either way).

That did not matter. If he could not get back on the court. They would have gotten. He missed 2 1/2 seasons. The Bulls always had to pay him.

[ChettheJet]

It's his wrist so no gloom and doom required. This comes at a good time. The Bulls can play Terry and THT, even Duarte a bit more. There's the option of having Zach take minutes at guard so Craig and Phillips play more at the forward spots.

The Bulls have deep, if not spectacular bench, this affords them the chance to play some guys and showcase them for potential trades.