Road to nowhere

[HomoSapien]

LaVine, Ball, Williams, White, Giddey, Buzelis, Smith, and Duarte are all lottery picks.

Vuc and Terry are both mid-first-round picks.

Ayo, Tucker, and Philips are all overachieving 2nd round picks (maybe not Philips yet).

I think there is a bit of a perception thing going on here. If we had used our own draft capital to draft most of these guys it would suddenly feel like we're building something with purpose. For whatever reason, acquiring these guys through trades/free-agency is less fulfilling.

Coldfish said something earlier that's really stuck with me but it was along the lines of first-round picks being the most over-valued asset, whereas recent former lottery picks who haven't instantly figured things out tend to be the most undervalued.

I agree that we're firmly on the road to nowhere. We're not winning enough and we're certainly not losing enough. We're also bleeding assets for no reason. I don't know how we can right this ship with AKME steering it. This off-season we added Giddey, Smith, and Tucker -- all young guys who have shown promise earlier in their careers but were somewhat undervalued. Maybe that's going to be their strategy moving forward. Adding young, underappreciated talent, and hoping one or two of them has untapped development.

I hope so. I agree with the notion that "first round picks" are highly overvalued, who then often become undervalued almost immediately, at least by 29 other teams. For some reason teams usually overvalue their own picks for several years.

Random side note - I HATE pick protections. I would prefer that the next CBA makes those impossible. It really throws a wrench into roster building for so many teams. Never knowing when a pick will convey etc. It feels like most first rounders are protected when they're traded these days which practically undermines the entire purpose of trading for a pick.

Good points!

I tend to agree. That said, the "value" of a first is the slim, but real, chance it becomes a superstar. IMO, there's a difference between a good value player (i.e. a guy who figures the NBA out after his rookie deal signed for a cheap deal), and a superstar.

Don't get me wrong. Having a good draft pick is the best spot to be in. It's an opportunity to find a star and control them contractually for years. It's the more likely path to produce a star. But there are good examples of players figuring it out later on -- Jermaine O'Neal, McGrady, Harden, even Lauri.

I strongly believe that if Smith was made a full-time starter, he'd likely give us 18 and 10 and suddenly look like a building block.

[League Circles]

This is why we should just go full Leroy Jenkins and trade Coby, Giddey, and Williams for Jimmy Butler

Ball-LaVine-Butler-Craig-Vucevic with Ayo, Smith, Matas could make some noise. I'd be here for it.

Watch on YouTube

[jnrjr79]

LaVine, Ball, Williams, White, Giddey, Buzelis, Smith, and Duarte are all lottery picks.

Vuc and Terry are both mid-first-round picks.

Ayo, Tucker, and Philips are all overachieving 2nd round picks (maybe not Philips yet).

I think there is a bit of a perception thing going on here. If we had used our own draft capital to draft most of these guys it would suddenly feel like we're building something with purpose. For whatever reason, acquiring these guys through trades/free-agency is less fulfilling.

Coldfish said something earlier that's really stuck with me but it was along the lines of first-round picks being the most over-valued asset, whereas recent former lottery picks who haven't instantly figured things out tend to be the most undervalued.

I agree that we're firmly on the road to nowhere. We're not winning enough and we're certainly not losing enough. We're also bleeding assets for no reason. I don't know how we can right this ship with AKME steering it. This off-season we added Giddey, Smith, and Tucker -- all young guys who have shown promise earlier in their careers but were somewhat undervalued. Maybe that's going to be their strategy moving forward. Adding young, underappreciated talent, and hoping one or two of them has untapped development.

I hope so. I agree with the notion that "first round picks" are highly overvalued, who then often become undervalued almost immediately, at least by 29 other teams. For some reason teams usually overvalue their own picks for several years.

Random side note - I HATE pick protections. I would prefer that the next CBA makes those impossible. It really throws a wrench into roster building for so many teams. Never knowing when a pick will convey etc. It feels like most first rounders are protected when they're traded these days which practically undermines the entire purpose of trading for a pick.

Good points!

I tend to agree. That said, the "value" of a first is the slim, but real, chance it becomes a superstar. IMO, there's a difference between a good value player (i.e. a guy who figures the NBA out after his rookie deal signed for a cheap deal), and a superstar.

Right. The reason that first rounders have so much value is the small chance that they will pop into huge stars. Every season a young player doesn’t make that leap, they become less valuable, because it becomes less and less likely they ever will. There are late bloomer exceptions, to be sure, but the reason someone like Josh Giddey has less market value than a decent 1st is teams feel they have seen enough of Giddey to know he’ll never be an elite star, even if he still has plenty of room to grow into a good player. And this makes sense, because more often than not, you need a top player, and not just a couple of All-Stars, to be a competitor.

[HomoSapien]

I hope so. I agree with the notion that "first round picks" are highly overvalued, who then often become undervalued almost immediately, at least by 29 other teams. For some reason teams usually overvalue their own picks for several years.

Random side note - I HATE pick protections. I would prefer that the next CBA makes those impossible. It really throws a wrench into roster building for so many teams. Never knowing when a pick will convey etc. It feels like most first rounders are protected when they're traded these days which practically undermines the entire purpose of trading for a pick.

Good points!

I tend to agree. That said, the "value" of a first is the slim, but real, chance it becomes a superstar. IMO, there's a difference between a good value player (i.e. a guy who figures the NBA out after his rookie deal signed for a cheap deal), and a superstar.

Right. The reason that first rounders have so much value is the small chance that they will pop into huge stars. Every season a young player doesn’t make that leap, they become less valuable, because it becomes less and less likely they ever will. There are late bloomer exceptions, to be sure, but the reason someone like Josh Giddey has less market value than a decent 1st is teams feel they have seen enough of Giddey to know he’ll never be an elite star, even if he still has plenty of room to grow into a good player. And this makes sense, because more often than not, you need a top player, and not just a couple of All-Stars, to be a competitor.

This is basically what the Bulls were faced with during the Caruso trade. They could have had the 13th pick from the Kings. I was personally really high on Devin Carter during the draft. I was also really high on Giddey who was drafted 6th in what was perceived as a much stronger draft. The 13th pick seemed more valuable than Giddey in many ways at the time of the trade, but is that true from a pure talent stand point? Hard to say.

[jnrjr79]

Good points!

I tend to agree. That said, the "value" of a first is the slim, but real, chance it becomes a superstar. IMO, there's a difference between a good value player (i.e. a guy who figures the NBA out after his rookie deal signed for a cheap deal), and a superstar.

Right. The reason that first rounders have so much value is the small chance that they will pop into huge stars. Every season a young player doesn’t make that leap, they become less valuable, because it becomes less and less likely they ever will. There are late bloomer exceptions, to be sure, but the reason someone like Josh Giddey has less market value than a decent 1st is teams feel they have seen enough of Giddey to know he’ll never be an elite star, even if he still has plenty of room to grow into a good player. And this makes sense, because more often than not, you need a top player, and not just a couple of All-Stars, to be a competitor.

This is basically what the Bulls were faced with during the Caruso trade. They could have had the 13th pick from the Kings. I was personally really high on Devin Carter during the draft. I was also really high on Giddey who was drafted 6th over in what was perceived as a much stronger draft. The 13th pick seemed more valuable than Giddey in many ways at the time of the trade, but is that true from a pure talent stand point? Hard to say.

Right. I think it’s fair to say that, on average, a 13th pick in the draft will not be as good as Giddey is/will be. But the fact that there’s a small chance that it could become your next Giannis or whatever would make, I think, most NBA teams prefer the pick.

It also depends where you are as a team, though. If you’re already set for your star players, you might prefer Giddey. But if you’re like the Bulls and still looking for that guy/those guys, you’d think it would make you prefer the pick (unless you’re AK trying to be “competitive” or whatever).

[Bulliever2020]

I mean all credit to the Talking Heads but thought I might at least get a shoutout for being the clear inspiracion for the thread title

viewtopic.php?p=116195527#p116195527

[WindyCityBorn]

It might take a decade to recover from all the lottery picks we gave away for Vuc and potentially DeRozan.

[MrSparkle]

It might take a decade to recover from all the lottery picks we gave away for Vuc and potentially DeRozan.

I don't know about a decade. PHX and MIN are in hotter water with their situations.

Literally, all AK had to do was throw in the towel 2 years earlier than he did, and we'd be out of the mess faster than we got into it. Losing Lauri and Franz for worse parts, losing Lonzo's entire 4y contract to an injury, all that hurts, but it happened, and you move on.

Otherwise, Zach, Demar, Vuc, Caruso, DJJ, Drummond, Terry/18th pick - these were all very tradable until they weren't. Coby/Ayo's value this past summer must've been very solid. Maybe Vuc's value decline was the hardest thing to stomach and work with on the trade market. Along with Pat's RFA status and recurring injuries and poor play. Lonzo is soon going to be an expiring contract , and potentially helpful to a contender.

So the options are there. But they're not when you let guys expire and overpay to resign them. AK's operating like we were 1-2 moves away from contention, but we're closer to tanking. I'm still nervous that he's going to pursue Butler, George, Durant, Kawhi, Zion or some other old or injury prone name, to give the Vuc/Zach & friends sunk cost one more shot. Now that would be a decade killer, after a single 2nd round or ECF appearance.

[Dan Z]

Good points!

I tend to agree. That said, the "value" of a first is the slim, but real, chance it becomes a superstar. IMO, there's a difference between a good value player (i.e. a guy who figures the NBA out after his rookie deal signed for a cheap deal), and a superstar.

Right. The reason that first rounders have so much value is the small chance that they will pop into huge stars. Every season a young player doesn’t make that leap, they become less valuable, because it becomes less and less likely they ever will. There are late bloomer exceptions, to be sure, but the reason someone like Josh Giddey has less market value than a decent 1st is teams feel they have seen enough of Giddey to know he’ll never be an elite star, even if he still has plenty of room to grow into a good player. And this makes sense, because more often than not, you need a top player, and not just a couple of All-Stars, to be a competitor.

This is basically what the Bulls were faced with during the Caruso trade. They could have had the 13th pick from the Kings. I was personally really high on Devin Carter during the draft. I was also really high on Giddey who was drafted 6th in what was perceived as a much stronger draft. The 13th pick seemed more valuable than Giddey in many ways at the time of the trade, but is that true from a pure talent stand point? Hard to say.

The other thing to keep in mind are contracts. Giddey is up for a new one this off season and once he gets it his value will change.

[Stratmaster]

I wonder where the Bulls would rank in number of top 10 picks on their roster. #1 in the league????

LaVine, Ball, Williams, White, Giddey, Buzelis, Smith, and Duarte are all lottery picks.

Vuc and Terry are both mid-first-round picks.

Ayo, Tucker, and Philips are all overachieving 2nd round picks (maybe not Philips yet).

I think there is a bit of a perception thing going on here. If we had used our own draft capital to draft most of these guys it would suddenly feel like we're building something with purpose. For whatever reason, acquiring these guys through trades/free-agency is less fulfilling.

Coldfish said something earlier that's really stuck with me but it was along the lines of first-round picks being the most over-valued asset, whereas recent former lottery picks who haven't instantly figured things out tend to be the most undervalued.

I agree that we're firmly on the road to nowhere. We're not winning enough and we're certainly not losing enough. We're also bleeding assets for no reason. I don't know how we can right this ship with AKME steering it. This off-season we added Giddey, Smith, and Tucker -- all young guys who have shown promise earlier in their careers but were somewhat undervalued. Maybe that's going to be their strategy moving forward. Adding young, underappreciated talent, and hoping one or two of them has untapped development.

I hope so. I agree with the notion that "first round picks" are highly overvalued, who then often become undervalued almost immediately, at least by 29 other teams. For some reason teams usually overvalue their own picks for several years.

Random side note - I HATE pick protections. I would prefer that the next CBA makes those impossible. It really throws a wrench into roster building for so many teams. Never knowing when a pick will convey etc. It feels like most first rounders are protected when they're traded these days which practically undermines the entire purpose of trading for a pick.

Plus 1 on the pick protection front.

[CROBulls]

It might take a decade to recover from all the lottery picks we gave away for Vuc and potentially DeRozan.

I don't know about a decade. PHX and MIN are in hotter water with their situations.

Literally, all AK had to do was throw in the towel 2 years earlier than he did, and we'd be out of the mess faster than we got into it. Losing Lauri and Franz for worse parts, losing Lonzo's entire 4y contract to an injury, all that hurts, but it happened, and you move on.

Otherwise, Zach, Demar, Vuc, Caruso, DJJ, Drummond, Terry/18th pick - these were all very tradable until they weren't. Coby/Ayo's value this past summer must've been very solid. Maybe Vuc's value decline was the hardest thing to stomach and work with on the trade market. Along with Pat's RFA status and recurring injuries and poor play. Lonzo is soon going to be an expiring contract , and potentially helpful to a contender.

So the options are there. But they're not when you let guys expire and overpay to resign them. AK's operating like we were 1-2 moves away from contention, but we're closer to tanking. I'm still nervous that he's going to pursue Butler, George, Durant, Kawhi, Zion or some other old or injury prone name, to give the Vuc/Zach & friends sunk cost one more shot. Now that would be a decade killer, after a single 2nd round or ECF appearance.

We will certainly not be competitive enough to make 2nd round playoffs before end of decade unless by some miracle we either win lottery eventually. First 1st round pick we fully own is in 2026. Meaning that rookie is gonna start season 2026-27. And lets be real under this management given they dont plan do tanking, only by winning lottery you have chance to get talent capable of ECF apperance. We know how that player looks like (Derrick Rose).


And then you need to take into consideration that even if you pick future superstar by any of those chances, they still need be experienced enough (like 2-3 years in league) to get at level where they are capable leading team to playoffs. Not only that you need basically need another similar level player to even win playoff series at minimum.

I hardly see any clear path for Bulls to get good in shorter future. By time Bulls are good, it's very possible that Lavine is retired.

[drosestruts]

It might take a decade to recover from all the lottery picks we gave away for Vuc and potentially DeRozan.

Just pretend we drafted Giddey and Smith and pray the Blazers pick becomes real before 2028

[MrSparkle]

It might take a decade to recover from all the lottery picks we gave away for Vuc and potentially DeRozan.

I don't know about a decade. PHX and MIN are in hotter water with their situations.

Literally, all AK had to do was throw in the towel 2 years earlier than he did, and we'd be out of the mess faster than we got into it. Losing Lauri and Franz for worse parts, losing Lonzo's entire 4y contract to an injury, all that hurts, but it happened, and you move on.

Otherwise, Zach, Demar, Vuc, Caruso, DJJ, Drummond, Terry/18th pick - these were all very tradable until they weren't. Coby/Ayo's value this past summer must've been very solid. Maybe Vuc's value decline was the hardest thing to stomach and work with on the trade market. Along with Pat's RFA status and recurring injuries and poor play. Lonzo is soon going to be an expiring contract , and potentially helpful to a contender.

So the options are there. But they're not when you let guys expire and overpay to resign them. AK's operating like we were 1-2 moves away from contention, but we're closer to tanking. I'm still nervous that he's going to pursue Butler, George, Durant, Kawhi, Zion or some other old or injury prone name, to give the Vuc/Zach & friends sunk cost one more shot. Now that would be a decade killer, after a single 2nd round or ECF appearance.

We will certainly not be competitive enough to make 2nd round playoffs before end of decade unless by some miracle we either win lottery eventually. First 1st round pick we fully own is in 2026. Meaning that rookie is gonna start season 2026-27. And lets be real under this management given they dont plan do tanking, only by winning lottery you have chance to get talent capable of ECF apperance. We know how that player looks like (Derrick Rose).


And then you need to take into consideration that even if you pick future superstar by any of those chances, they still need be experienced enough (like 2-3 years in league) to get at level where they are capable leading team to playoffs. Not only that you need basically need another similar level player to even win playoff series at minimum.

I hardly see any clear path for Bulls to get good in shorter future. By time Bulls are good, it's very possible that Lavine is retired.

I meant if they trade for a Butler or somebody. Even then, the hit rate on these over-the-hill superstar trades has been rough. You could literally trade all our lesser players (Ayo, Jalen, Jevon, Duarte, Phillips) for Jimmy (works in trade checker), and I still think that’s a 2nd rd exit with a drop off the cliff next year.

I personally don’t see a 2nd rd appearance before the end of the decade, though. Things change fast in the NBA, but our farm’s pre-prime stats aren’t adding up to redeeming prime numbers.

[JimmyButler21]

Ironically, trading for Zion Williamson might put the Bulls in a better position just because he'll never play and it'll actually lead to tanking.

[MrSparkle]

Ironically, trading for Zion Williamson might put the Bulls in a better position just because he'll never play and it'll actually lead to tanking.

I don't actually think NOP will give Zion away without receiving atleast 2 FRPs. It makes no sense for them. They're already in position to tank. All they need to do is trim $2M to get out the luxury tax, and an Ingram dump is pretty much priority #1.

So all I see happening, is the Bulls sending more 7-14 picks out to NOP, while treading water and losing play-ins.

[HomoSapien]

What team is the worst position in the NBA?
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2426380

Bulls fans: Its us. Definitely us.
Some random people: Well, team X is in a bad spot
Bulls fans: Yeah. That's nice. Its definitely us.

.....

OK, so, when was the last time the Lakers drafted a player in the top 10 that became a core player on a good team? Answer: Probably James Worthy in 1983. They have won a lot of titles from multiple groups since then.

There are many ways to build a good team. The draft is just one. Chicago's problem is that ownership is effectively disavowing ALL of them. They won't go for capspace. They won't tank for picks and they won't buy a team using salary.

Personally, I don't think that we will ever see the Bulls in a conference championship again in our lifetimes as long as the current ownership group is in charge. They just won't allow it. The Derrick Rose run was lightning striking multiple times:
- The Curry trade leading to Noah
- A core group of talented players that just fell apart getting a top 1 pick on a 1.7% chance
- Reinsdorf going outside his comfort zone and hiring Thibodeau at Arne Duncan's (Obama's Education secretary) suggestion
- A historically weak eastern conference outside of the Heat because the Heat soaked up all the talent

I'm not even sure the Bulls make that ECF if Obama didn't win in 2008. Talk about butterfly effect.

Personally, I think that even if the Bulls had a few top 10 picks it wouldn't make much difference. Hell, Patrick, Giddey and Coby are top 10 guys in their primes.

Going forward, the Bulls are a moneyball team that spends money very poorly. Lavine is overpaid. Ball is overpaid. Vucevic is overpaid. Williams is overpaid. Maybe if they start spending money such that a player's contribution is equal to or better than his contribution, this will start turning around and they can at least get competitive using their "let's not tank, spend lux tax money, get draft picks or really do anything of note" model of franchise building.

Basically, the summer of 2026 you might start to see something happen. Until then, might as well enjoy the games.

Great post. I disagree slightly with the bolded part. There's no question that ownership prevents us from building like a big market team, but the main culprit here has to be Artursas Karnisovas. Prior to this season, there seemed to be this delusional belief coming from the front office that this core group of DeRozan, Vuc, LaVine, and Caruso were better than they had shown. Maybe he's lying, but Arturas has said several times that ownership would sign off on a rebuild but that he specifically is uninterested in that route.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

The Bulls had deals for Drummond and Caruso at the deadline that they passed on because they believed we were a playoff team. Reinsdorf is one of the worst owners in the NBA, but Paxson and Forman were able to build three completely different playoff teams during their time here: the Gordon team, the Rose era, and briefly with Butler, Rondo, and Wade. It can be done. Instead, we have a front office that keeps building teams that make no sense. We haven't had a power forward on the roster for four seasons now. We never carry a third-string big. AK has whiffed on every draft pick outside of Ayo. He keeps doubling down on players that no one else wants. He's also bad at evaluating our own talent --- we'd be better off if we just held onto guys like Lauri and Gafford. It seems unlikely to me that these things are specifically a Reinsdorf issue.

What is a Reinsdorf issue is that the executives he hires are hired for decades. It's essentially a pope job. Our best shot, ultimately, might be to pool our money together for another billboard.

[Chi town]

AK wants to be competitive…

We have NOT been competitive since Zo’s injury.

[Chi town]

It might take a decade to recover from all the lottery picks we gave away for Vuc and potentially DeRozan.

Just pretend we drafted Giddey and Smith and pray the Blazers pick becomes real before 2028

Best way for that to happen is probably hitting on their pick this draft and then it conveys in 26 or 27.

[Mindcrime]

Doug nice work and thanks for the time to pull the data.

Still that horse has been beaten to the death so many times in recent years. Draft picks mean **** when a) it's just the wrong year, b) the talent pool is weak, c) the fit/motivation of the project doesn't align. You could be the most avarage franchise in the universe and luck into the best situation(Cleveland, Golden State), or the try harder and not accomplish anything for years one (Phili, Detroit and probably dozen other teams). In the end it's just LUCK.

[drosestruts]

It might take a decade to recover from all the lottery picks we gave away for Vuc and potentially DeRozan.

Just pretend we drafted Giddey and Smith and pray the Blazers pick becomes real before 2028

Best way for that to happen is probably hitting on their pick this draft and then it conveys in 26 or 27.

Unless of course the 2026 and 2027 drafts end up being deeper and better

Which none of us will know till like.... 2030 at the earliest