Building around Coby-Giddey-Matas

[waffle]

YUP.

That is part of my thinking with Ayo. I could see him getting moved, not because the bulls don't want him, but because I could see him having value around the league. And we have too many guards

I could see a trade where it is Vuch, this years pick, and 1 or 2 other players, at least 1 of which has to have some value, for a DECENT big.

[sco]

YUP.

That is part of my thinking with Ayo. I could see him getting moved, not because the bulls don't want him, but because I could see him having value around the league. And we have too many guards

I could see a trade where it is Vuch, this years pick, and 1 or 2 other players, at least 1 of which has to have some value, for a DECENT big.

The deal would need to open up a roster spot, and ideally some cap space to keep Jones.

[WindyCityBorn]

Lets get real. The way Pat played the last 3-4 games suggest he is also coming out. We would be scary good to have a young Kawhi in Pat!

Please don’t do that. I’m begging you.

I would ecstatic if Pat can give 10/4 on average efficiency. My expectations for him are nonexistent at this point.

[WindyCityBorn]

I really don’t look at Giddey-Coby-Matas as a core of anything special. The Bulls basically might have the complementary pieces needed for a good team but you still need the core piece.

Basically if you add Jokic or a healthy Embiid to this group you might be talking about something.

I have no idea how you get an elite 4 or 5 but that’s what you have to do. Maybe trade up in the draft and hope to hit the jackpot?

I don’t think (hardly) anyone really disagrees that this “core” lacks the much needed franchise star. But it’s rhetorical core we are pretty clearly going to start with.

And given the last couple of months it’s hard to say it’s the wrong thing to do as a first step forward. Just don’t rush it.

That said, trading Coby while his value is super high is very much on the table for me.

Yeah, I don’t look at any of these guys as untouchable. I would trade all three of them for Flagg to be honest.

Fact is, the team that gets #1 wouldn’t and that shows you the true value of this core.

I don’t want to be too negative here though. The team is in a significantly better place than I thought it was and they have some flexibility now. Just ONE good move could turn this into a 50 win team.

It shows how overvalued draft picks are. We probably couldn’t get #2 or #3 for any our player but either. Maybe Giddey, but I wouldn’t do that.

[coldfish]

I don’t think (hardly) anyone really disagrees that this “core” lacks the much needed franchise star. But it’s rhetorical core we are pretty clearly going to start with.

And given the last couple of months it’s hard to say it’s the wrong thing to do as a first step forward. Just don’t rush it.

That said, trading Coby while his value is super high is very much on the table for me.

Yeah, I don’t look at any of these guys as untouchable. I would trade all three of them for Flagg to be honest.

Fact is, the team that gets #1 wouldn’t and that shows you the true value of this core.

I don’t want to be too negative here though. The team is in a significantly better place than I thought it was and they have some flexibility now. Just ONE good move could turn this into a 50 win team.

It shows how overvalued draft picks are.

In general I agree with you. The odds of a pick after like #5 going on to be a contributor for your team are pretty bad.

That said, if you hit you really hit it big and you can set up your franchise for 10+ years with one great pick. I see the appeal.

The other value not discussed is that they are cheap labor to fill out a roster but that’s not a concern for the bulls at this time.

[MrSparkle]

The idea that made sense to me was trying to keep Giddey’s salary affordable (100/4 or 70/2 team option in 2026 and/or 27). That may really not work if Brooklyn prepares a 4Y max offer.

I think Giddey-Coby-Matas are a fine trio to retain, but at what salary cost? Not the max, obviously. We need to add a star before Coby extension would kick in (and obviously Matas has 3 whole years left). The one 2026 option is JJJ, who is a tangible target I think: unrestricted, Memphis is kind of stuck between contending and underperforming badly, and he will be legit overpaid on the max (esp. if MEM has to franchise max him). But this would be a DPOY prime C with offensive range. The 27 options are superstars, but also pipe-dreams.

Anyway, you take it one step at a time. Giddey’s contract is going to be tricky.

[waffle]

YUP.

That is part of my thinking with Ayo. I could see him getting moved, not because the bulls don't want him, but because I could see him having value around the league. And we have too many guards

I could see a trade where it is Vuch, this years pick, and 1 or 2 other players, at least 1 of which has to have some value, for a DECENT big.

The deal would need to open up a roster spot, and ideally some cap space to keep Jones.

well in my scenario we'd be giving up 2 players at least and a good pick for A Player. I think we have to make some consolidating trades.

[dougthonus]

In general I agree with you. The odds of a pick after like #5 going on to be a contributor for your team are pretty bad.

Not sure what your bar for contributor is, by that word, I think rotation player. Probably 30 players in a typical draft go on to be rotation players. So your odds are extremely high of getting a contributor. That said we may just be splitting hairs over semantics there, and you mean something higher than rotation guy by contributor. Also it depends how fast you need them to be a rotation guy.

I agree with the general assessment that picks have become overrated (on an upside basis anyway). Agree with your point about cheap labor though, if you are working within a lot of financial constraints then having a pipeline of cheaper labor it is helpful.

[DuckIII]

The idea that made sense to me was trying to keep Giddey’s salary affordable (100/4 or 70/2 team option in 2026 and/or 27). That may really not work if Brooklyn prepares a 4Y max offer.

If Brooklyn does that they can have him. Just tank and rebuild.

[eierluke]

I really don’t look at Giddey-Coby-Matas as a core of anything special. The Bulls basically might have the complementary pieces needed for a good team but you still need the core piece.

Basically if you add Jokic or a healthy Embiid to this group you might be talking about something.

I have no idea how you get an elite 4 or 5 but that’s what you have to do. Maybe trade up in the draft and hope to hit the jackpot?

I don’t think (hardly) anyone really disagrees that this “core” lacks the much needed franchise star. But it’s rhetorical core we are pretty clearly going to start with.

And given the last couple of months it’s hard to say it’s the wrong thing to do as a first step forward. Just don’t rush it.

That said, trading Coby while his value is super high is very much on the table for me.

I don't understand those who want to trade White? No logic, as if we could get anyone in return, who has a higher probability to become our franchise player?

[coldfish]

In general I agree with you. The odds of a pick after like #5 going on to be a contributor for your team are pretty bad.

Not sure what your bar for contributor is, by that word, I think rotation player. Probably 30 players in a typical draft go on to be rotation players. So your odds are extremely high of getting a contributor. That said we may just be splitting hairs over semantics there, and you mean something higher than rotation guy by contributor. Also it depends how fast you need them to be a rotation guy.

I agree with the general assessment that picks have become overrated (on an upside basis anyway). Agree with your point about cheap labor though, if you are working within a lot of financial constraints then having a pipeline of cheaper labor it is helpful.

Fair point, let me reword: The odds that you can land a player with a pick after 5 that are better than what you can get with the MLE are pretty bad.

Basically a team could never have a draft pick and still fill out its roster with MLE quality players. As such, draft picks have value as players due to their low salary OR when they are better than MLE guys.

I need to check bbref to see what percentage of draft picks have good vorp numbers but im traveling and on mobile.

[BullChit]

Lets get real. The way Pat played the last 3-4 games suggest he is also coming out. We would be scary good to have a young Kawhi in Pat!

Please don’t do that. I’m begging you.

I would ecstatic if Pat can give 10/4 on average efficiency. My expectations for him are nonexistent at this point.

He can barely be an enthused bench warming cheerleader these days.

[Chi town]

We all know AK will be resigning Giddey and Coby on most likely team friendly deals. Non max.

We will have the assets and the salary slot to add a star to the core three 26 TDL or Draft. If we get a stud defensive C this draft we may not need to make that trade either.

[dougthonus]

Fair point, let me reword: The odds that you can land a player with a pick after 5 that are better than what you can get with the MLE are pretty bad.

Basically a team could never have a draft pick and still fill out its roster with MLE quality players. As such, draft picks have value as players due to their low salary OR when they are better than MLE guys.

I need to check bbref to see what percentage of draft picks have good vorp numbers but im traveling and on mobile.

Yeah I agree with the above, MLE caliber is probably a higher bar than contributor. I view an MLE guy as probably top 6 guy on your team. Most teams probably don't have more than 6 guys making the MLE (guessing, not looking).

A lot of it is also not just the value of the player, but as you noted the salary space, and also just the amount of assets you have. If you are a non tax team, then you get one MLE a year and one pick a year, so they both help you get two shots at a rotation guy. You could trade the the pick for an above MLE guy most of the time I think, but the problem is that you then need the matching salary to pull off the trade (or the cap room, but so few teams operate under the cap).

Assuming you have some dead salary to move, then if you aren't picking pretty high in the draft, moving your pick for a guy who will be in your top 6 of your rotation probably helps you more times than it hurts you, the problem of course is that it also means you do give up that upside for significant improvement if you were to get really lucky. Probably the odds of that mostly fall off a cliff after 15 or so, and aren't that great before hand.

[WindyCityBorn]

The idea that made sense to me was trying to keep Giddey’s salary affordable (100/4 or 70/2 team option in 2026 and/or 27). That may really not work if Brooklyn prepares a 4Y max offer.

I think Giddey-Coby-Matas are a fine trio to retain, but at what salary cost? Not the max, obviously. We need to add a star before Coby extension would kick in (and obviously Matas has 3 whole years left). The one 2026 option is JJJ, who is a tangible target I think: unrestricted, Memphis is kind of stuck between contending and underperforming badly, and he will be legit overpaid on the max (esp. if MEM has to franchise max him). But this would be a DPOY prime C with offensive range. The 27 options are superstars, but also pipe-dreams.

Anyway, you take it one step at a time. Giddey’s contract is going to be tricky.

We can’t extend Coby for more than $18 million. Obviously he won’t accept so he is going to be an unrestricted free agent in 2026. On the plus side we get another full season to see if improved play is sustainable. On minus side he could get near max from som me team if he does sustain it.
Obviously we want him to sustain it, but we don’t want him on a max contract!

[WindyCityBorn]

We all know AK will be resigning Giddey and Coby on most likely team friendly deals. Non max.

We will have the assets and the salary slot to add a star to the core three 26 TDL or Draft. If we get a stud defensive C this draft we may not need to make that trade either.

Do we know that? What’s a team friendly deal that Giddey would accept? Probably not less than $25 million at this point. If we send him out to get an offer sheet it could get more expensive. I’d try to offer 5 years/$140 million initially and hope he takes it. We have no control over Coby other than trading him. He will be unrestricted and can just walk if someone offers more or he just wants out for some reason. The latter unlikely.

[Chi town]

We all know AK will be resigning Giddey and Coby on most likely team friendly deals. Non max.

We will have the assets and the salary slot to add a star to the core three 26 TDL or Draft. If we get a stud defensive C this draft we may not need to make that trade either.

Do we know that? What’s a team friendly deal that Giddey would accept? Probably not less than $25 million at this point. If we send him out to get an offer sheet it could get more expensive. I’d try to offer 5 years/$140 million initially and hope he takes it. We have no control over Coby other than trading him. He will be unrestricted and can just walk if someone offers more or he just wants out for some reason. The latter unlikely.

The chemistry that is forming real. Coby will want to be paid but he’s not a diva.

I think if Giddey keeps it up through playoffs he gets 35M per. He will have earned it too. I’d be fine because I believe in his work ethic and IQ. He develops a legit 3 ball he’s an easy max player. With cap jumping 35M could be a bargain.

Coby has more variance. I can see where he keeps this up all next season and gets 35-40 per. We will have more data to support payday. I would be shocked if he got the max or higher than 40M per game. He’d have to improve on D to get that IMO.

[dougthonus]

The chemistry that is forming real. Coby will want to be paid but he’s not a diva.

I think if Giddey keeps it up through playoffs he gets 35M per. He will have earned it too. I’d be fine because I believe in his work ethic and IQ. He develops a legit 3 ball he’s an easy max player. With cap jumping 35M could be a bargain.

Coby has more variance. I can see where he keeps this up all next season and gets 35-40 per. We will have more data to support payday. I would be shocked if he got the max or higher than 40M per game. He’d have to improve on D to get that IMO.

Coby seems down to Earth, but he got underpaid on his last deal. He's going to likely aim for every cent he can get on the next one because of that, and will have a reasonable case that the Bulls can't underpay him two deals in a row.

What Coby will be worth is too hard to call right now. He's on an absolute heater, and if he did this for a whole season vs just a month and the Bulls are say the 6th seed and he makes the all-star team then he could easily be looking at the 30% max, and it would be the going rate for that performance even without much defense.

It's hard for me to see Coby keeping this up for a full season, but that may be just anchoring too much to the past, who knows what will happen next year.

[coldfish]

Fair point, let me reword: The odds that you can land a player with a pick after 5 that are better than what you can get with the MLE are pretty bad.

Basically a team could never have a draft pick and still fill out its roster with MLE quality players. As such, draft picks have value as players due to their low salary OR when they are better than MLE guys.

I need to check bbref to see what percentage of draft picks have good vorp numbers but im traveling and on mobile.

Yeah I agree with the above, MLE caliber is probably a higher bar than contributor. I view an MLE guy as probably top 6 guy on your team. Most teams probably don't have more than 6 guys making the MLE (guessing, not looking).

A lot of it is also not just the value of the player, but as you noted the salary space, and also just the amount of assets you have. If you are a non tax team, then you get one MLE a year and one pick a year, so they both help you get two shots at a rotation guy. You could trade the the pick for an above MLE guy most of the time I think, but the problem is that you then need the matching salary to pull off the trade (or the cap room, but so few teams operate under the cap).

Assuming you have some dead salary to move, then if you aren't picking pretty high in the draft, moving your pick for a guy who will be in your top 6 of your rotation probably helps you more times than it hurts you, the problem of course is that it also means you do give up that upside for significant improvement if you were to get really lucky. Probably the odds of that mostly fall off a cliff after 15 or so, and aren't that great before hand.

I was looking at bbref draft history going back a few years and most drafts seem to have 5 to 8 players that are worth a dam and 2-3 of them are taken top 5. If you extend that to top 15 its most of them.

Ill give an example of Avidja. Not a terrible player but not someone who moves a needle on any team. He is someone I would classify as “ not a contributor” or “worth a dam”. Teams can get guys like this any time they want and as such he has no value in building a roster.

One thing that has grown in value due to the second apron is open capspace. An inventive gm can use it to add a lot of value for a team in facilitating trades or saving lux tax for someone.

[Dez]

I really don’t look at Giddey-Coby-Matas as a core of anything special. The Bulls basically might have the complementary pieces needed for a good team but you still need the core piece.

Basically if you add Jokic or a healthy Embiid to this group you might be talking about something.

I have no idea how you get an elite 4 or 5 but that’s what you have to do. Maybe trade up in the draft and hope to hit the jackpot?

I don’t think (hardly) anyone really disagrees that this “core” lacks the much needed franchise star. But it’s rhetorical core we are pretty clearly going to start with.

And given the last couple of months it’s hard to say it’s the wrong thing to do as a first step forward. Just don’t rush it.

That said, trading Coby while his value is super high is very much on the table for me.

I don't understand those who want to trade White? No logic, as if we could get anyone in return, who has a higher probability to become our franchise player?

You don't understand the logic of selling high on a player that's going to be severely overpaid on his next contract? This board will turn on Coby very quickly once he signs that deal and they realise it's not going to help the Bulls.