Coby's Next Contract

[DuckIII]

Trade Coby to the highest bidder this offseason. That is the absolute best option going forward.

Better than Coby just continuing to be this good and staying on the Bulls?

I’m not sold on Coby. We’ve been down this path with him before (similarly, not identically). Need to see it for a season.

But if this is really him now, when getting to be a number 1 and playing next an unselfish sprinter like Giddey, it’s hard to imagine any scenario where trading him this summer is likely to be better than keeping him.

[League Circles]

"trade player X" is always the uninteresting half of an actual idea

[NecessaryEvil]

Trade Coby to the highest bidder this offseason. That is the absolute best option going forward.

[HoopsterJones]

Trade Coby to the highest bidder this offseason. That is the absolute best option going forward.

Better than Coby just continuing to be this good and staying on the Bulls?

I’m not sold on Coby. We’ve been down this path with him before (similarly, not identically). Need to see it for a season.

But if this is really him now, when getting to be a number 1 and playing next an unselfish sprinter like Giddey, it’s hard to imagine any scenario where trading him this summer is likely to be better than keeping him.

We’ve all seen Coby get hot for stretches before. Is it sustainable, repeatable going forward? He’s going to be a UFA after next season. Which either means he walks away for nothing or re-signs with the Bulls for a large amount of money which will only be worth it if he’s March 2025 Coby White more often than not. Extending him this offseason isn’t going to worth it for Coby because I think the most the Bulls can offer is $32.8m AAV.

If the Bulls can land multiple firsts and swaps, that might be something to consider.

[kodo]

Coby White (post ASG): 26 ppg 4.2 rpg 4.3 apg 50%/38%, W-L 14-9
2023 Lavine (post ASG): 27 ppg 3.5 rpg 4.7 apg 53%/39%, W-L 13-9

[DuckIII]

"trade player X" is always the uninteresting half of an actual idea

So true. Because except for a very tiny handful of players you’d be wise to trade virtually anyone for the right return.

[DuckIII]

Coby White (post ASG): 26 ppg 4.2 rpg 4.3 apg 50%/38%, W-L 14-9
2023 Lavine (post ASG): 27 ppg 3.5 rpg 4.7 apg 53%/39%, W-L 13-9

Lavine is very good. Very, very good. I hate it when Bulls fans bag on him.

But fit and chemistry matter a lot and as a result those stats don’t tell the whole story. Coby has always been best running. Lavine should have been a terrific open court player, but he prefers half court basketball.

Giddey is a runner and doesn’t take a lot of shots. The chemistry and fit with Coby allowing them to both play to their preferred styles means more.

Further, I assume (which is dangerous with AK) they will continue to try to populate the roster with even more runners. Add Ayo, Ball and Matas who all thrive in a full court high pace offense (and defend), and you have an identity. We could never do that if Lavine was still the offensive centerpiece of this team.

[Stratmaster]

It’s a concern because our FO is bad and may overpay him for basketball like he played earlier this year which would be a mistake.

But there are legitimate reasons to believe that post-trade deadline Coby is a real, sustainable thing. And if next season proves that out you can’t really overpay because that is a max quality shooting guard.

The only downside to having the extra year is that AK has been really terrible so far. It casts a shadow over all strategies discussed.

Agreed on the risk that AK overpays. I don't think there is any realistic scenario where Coby can be a true max guy on a contender. IMO, if he's making a max contract, that pretty much assures that the team won't be much above average. That's why the entire concept of max contract sucks. Though maybe I'm traumatized by seeing 30% and 35% "max" guys on nba teams not living up to that pay. Coby could maybe possibly be OK at 25% max if this is the real him. But isn't he going to be eligible for 30% or even more?

TBF, a DNP David Lee and Bogut were max guys on a contender. One of the best teams ever. Wiggins in the next iteration of that team.

Not saying your points suck, but the grandiose statement of being handicapped by contracts… you’re only handicapped by bad players on big contracts. We literally improved by trading Zach Lavine for 3 “scrubs.”

I’d work backwards with this one, and evaluate by the end of next season how many playoff teams would covet Coby as a starter. If the answer is “most” , you have to seriously consider the weight of his marginal under-performance (to salary) against his value as a prime top-20 guard.

So your perception is that this team is better because they traded Lavine for 3 "scrubs"? Really?

Nothing to do with Williams finally being benched? Nothing to do with the schedule and the time of the season they are playing the teams on that schedule? Nothing to do with Vuc finally being a complimentary piece instead of a whiny bitch demanding the offense run through him?

That's interesting because every player other than those 3 scrubs was already here. Where were they before?

Oh... that's right. Lavine was hiding them.

But somehow, paying Coby that kind of money would be better?

[Dan Z]

Trade Coby to the highest bidder this offseason. That is the absolute best option going forward.

Better than Coby just continuing to be this good and staying on the Bulls?

I’m not sold on Coby. We’ve been down this path with him before (similarly, not identically). Need to see it for a season.

But if this is really him now, when getting to be a number 1 and playing next an unselfish sprinter like Giddey, it’s hard to imagine any scenario where trading him this summer is likely to be better than keeping him.

I agree with you about Coby and specifically your last point...it doesn't make sense to trade him.

I'm fairly certain that AK will re-sign Giddey and he probably looks at the Bulls recent play as something they can build on for next season. Giddey's strength is passing and if Coby is gone who will score the ball? Matas can do that sometimes, but i wouldn't trust a 2nd year player to do that consistently. Coby is inconsistent, but there's nobody else on the team who can get hot like him.

Does AK overpay him when his contract is up? Maybe. AK won't build through the draft and I'd be surprised if he was willing to trade Coby for picks. Getting a player back...maybe,but who would they get that's better? If AK trades for a vet so they can "win now" I imagine he'd want to do so to add to the core of Giddey, Coby and Matas.

[MrSparkle]

Agreed on the risk that AK overpays. I don't think there is any realistic scenario where Coby can be a true max guy on a contender. IMO, if he's making a max contract, that pretty much assures that the team won't be much above average. That's why the entire concept of max contract sucks. Though maybe I'm traumatized by seeing 30% and 35% "max" guys on nba teams not living up to that pay. Coby could maybe possibly be OK at 25% max if this is the real him. But isn't he going to be eligible for 30% or even more?

TBF, a DNP David Lee and Bogut were max guys on a contender. One of the best teams ever. Wiggins in the next iteration of that team.

Not saying your points suck, but the grandiose statement of being handicapped by contracts… you’re only handicapped by bad players on big contracts. We literally improved by trading Zach Lavine for 3 “scrubs.”

I’d work backwards with this one, and evaluate by the end of next season how many playoff teams would covet Coby as a starter. If the answer is “most” , you have to seriously consider the weight of his marginal under-performance (to salary) against his value as a prime top-20 guard.

So your perception is that this team is better because they traded Lavine for 3 "scrubs"? Really?

Nothing to do with Williams finally being benched? Nothing to do with the schedule and the time of the season they are playing the teams on that schedule? Nothing to do with Vuc finally being a complimentary piece instead of a whiny bitch demanding the offense run through him?

That's interesting because every player other than those 3 scrubs was already here. Where were they before?

Oh... that's right. Lavine was hiding them.

But somehow, paying Coby that kind of money would be better?

Absolutely. Giddey and Coby running the show looks way better than when Zach was the highest usage player. I would agree that playing Matas over Pat was a big upgrade too (was quite frustrated Billy iced him for the first 50 games). I also put “scrubs” in quotes, because Tre/Huerter/Collins have individually helped too as roleplayers.. they’re not such scrubs after all.

[MrSparkle]

Agreed on the risk that AK overpays. I don't think there is any realistic scenario where Coby can be a true max guy on a contender. IMO, if he's making a max contract, that pretty much assures that the team won't be much above average. That's why the entire concept of max contract sucks. Though maybe I'm traumatized by seeing 30% and 35% "max" guys on nba teams not living up to that pay. Coby could maybe possibly be OK at 25% max if this is the real him. But isn't he going to be eligible for 30% or even more?

TBF, a DNP David Lee and Bogut were max guys on a contender. One of the best teams ever. Wiggins in the next iteration of that team.

Not saying your points suck, but the grandiose statement of being handicapped by contracts… you’re only handicapped by bad players on big contracts. We literally improved by trading Zach Lavine for 3 “scrubs.”

I’d work backwards with this one, and evaluate by the end of next season how many playoff teams would covet Coby as a starter. If the answer is “most” , you have to seriously consider the weight of his marginal under-performance (to salary) against his value as a prime top-20 guard.

So your perception is that this team is better because they traded Lavine for 3 "scrubs"? Really?

Nothing to do with Williams finally being benched? Nothing to do with the schedule and the time of the season they are playing the teams on that schedule? Nothing to do with Vuc finally being a complimentary piece instead of a whiny bitch demanding the offense run through him?

That's interesting because every player other than those 3 scrubs was already here. Where were they before?

Oh... that's right. Lavine was hiding them.

But somehow, paying Coby that kind of money would be better?

You can read into it however you’d like. I didn’t say Lavine was hiding them, nor that paying Coby that money would be better.

But we’ve been a hell of a lot more fun to watch, and more competent than any other 1-month stretch the last 2 seasons.

[DuckIII]

Agreed on the risk that AK overpays. I don't think there is any realistic scenario where Coby can be a true max guy on a contender. IMO, if he's making a max contract, that pretty much assures that the team won't be much above average. That's why the entire concept of max contract sucks. Though maybe I'm traumatized by seeing 30% and 35% "max" guys on nba teams not living up to that pay. Coby could maybe possibly be OK at 25% max if this is the real him. But isn't he going to be eligible for 30% or even more?

TBF, a DNP David Lee and Bogut were max guys on a contender. One of the best teams ever. Wiggins in the next iteration of that team.

Not saying your points suck, but the grandiose statement of being handicapped by contracts… you’re only handicapped by bad players on big contracts. We literally improved by trading Zach Lavine for 3 “scrubs.”

I’d work backwards with this one, and evaluate by the end of next season how many playoff teams would covet Coby as a starter. If the answer is “most” , you have to seriously consider the weight of his marginal under-performance (to salary) against his value as a prime top-20 guard.

So your perception is that this team is better because they traded Lavine for 3 "scrubs"? Really?

That and the massive improvements to Coby and Giddey that followed as a result. And Matas. Yeah, I think we pretty much all believe that.

The problem is some people contort that into an indictment of Lavine. It’s not. It’s just different and worked better given the personnel. Lavine, unlike Coby and Giddey, didn’t end up in an ideal situation. He basically landed in the exact same situation he had been in.

[Chi town]

I like Coby at 5/150 a helluva lot better than Zach at 5/215.

Coby is also being maximized.

Zach never was with DDR and Vuc. He also chose to play more on ball than off ball where he is lethal. Zach is a really good player that could look even better than Coby now if he was out next to a star and played off ball.

[Onibuh]

I will never understand the desire to trade young players that get it together for the sake of getting other young players that might need the same time. All just to see a bad product during that time.

After the Lavine trade all thats left is Vuc.

Bulls finally get something to like, that is growing and looking good. You won't get a superstar on a losing team, you won't just get good with getting a #1 overall pick. It takes more and there are different ways to become a good team.
Get good on the back of a 25 year old next to a 22 and 20 years old.
Keep him, pay him if he can play like this next season, then offer him what he is worth.

[eierluke]

Coby White (post ASG): 26 ppg 4.2 rpg 4.3 apg 50%/38%, W-L 14-9
2023 Lavine (post ASG): 27 ppg 3.5 rpg 4.7 apg 53%/39%, W-L 13-9

That crossed my mind as well.
The difference is between the ears. LaVine has been a career long stat padder, while Cobys effort wins games.
LaVine ain't a bad guy though, he does not even realize this and still thinks he is doing everything for his team to win.

[eierluke]

Coby White (post ASG): 26 ppg 4.2 rpg 4.3 apg 50%/38%, W-L 14-9
2023 Lavine (post ASG): 27 ppg 3.5 rpg 4.7 apg 53%/39%, W-L 13-9

That crossed my mind as well.
The difference is between the ears. LaVine has been a career long stat padder, while Cobys effort wins games.
LaVine ain't a bad guy though, he does not even realize this and still thinks he is doing everything for his team to win.

We did not go 13:9 after the ASG 2023 because of LaVine, we did so despite LaVine being here.

[Indomitable]

But he isn't playing like one. The Bulls haven't had a top 15 players at any point since Rose. Scoring doesn't make you a top player. Like i posted Zach was a 24-27 ppg guy the entire time here and as much as i waned him to be a top 20 players in reality he didn't do enough other things to break through.

Eye test says Coby is playing better than Zach. Raw numbers don’t tell the full story. Better decision making, less turnovers, better handles, significantly better pressure in situations(the biggest difference he isn’t a choker like Zach). And he is doing it without needing to dominate the ball.

If he does this for a full season I’ll be convinced he’s a foundational piece.

That's just not true. His usage has been at 30٪ during this streak. That is dominating the ball. He doesn't have any less, or more, turnovers than Lavine with the same usage.

People are desperate.


The biggest improvements are that Mateas is starting and is a far more impactful player then Pat ever has been.

That Giddey is actually getting more time with the ball as a playmaker.

That the big man like a Collins are actually playing like big man.

[RSP83]

Coby White (post ASG): 26 ppg 4.2 rpg 4.3 apg 50%/38%, W-L 14-9
2023 Lavine (post ASG): 27 ppg 3.5 rpg 4.7 apg 53%/39%, W-L 13-9

damn.. that gives me a headache.

[RSP83]

Coby White (post ASG): 26 ppg 4.2 rpg 4.3 apg 50%/38%, W-L 14-9
2023 Lavine (post ASG): 27 ppg 3.5 rpg 4.7 apg 53%/39%, W-L 13-9

Lavine is very good. Very, very good. I hate it when Bulls fans bag on him.

But fit and chemistry matter a lot and as a result those stats don’t tell the whole story. Coby has always been best running. Lavine should have been a terrific open court player, but he prefers half court basketball.

Giddey is a runner and doesn’t take a lot of shots. The chemistry and fit with Coby allowing them to both play to their preferred styles means more.

Further, I assume (which is dangerous with AK) they will continue to try to populate the roster with even more runners. Add Ayo, Ball and Matas who all thrive in a full court high pace offense (and defend), and you have an identity. We could never do that if Lavine was still the offensive centerpiece of this team.

I like to believe this one. Coby can get his high volume buckets while still playing within the same system and pace that Billy run through Giddey. While Zach was more similar to a Demar type iso scorer. Despite having the ability to score in high volume off-the-ball with his skill set, he never truly excel at it, for some reason. We still have the play-ins and next season to assess Coby.

I think we'll know better what to do with Coby based on his performance in the upcoming play-in.

[dougthonus]

Trade Coby to the highest bidder this offseason. That is the absolute best option going forward.

Better than Coby just continuing to be this good and staying on the Bulls?

I’m not sold on Coby. We’ve been down this path with him before (similarly, not identically). Need to see it for a season.

But if this is really him now, when getting to be a number 1 and playing next an unselfish sprinter like Giddey, it’s hard to imagine any scenario where trading him this summer is likely to be better than keeping him.

If his salary is a 30% max after playing this well then trading him may still be better than keeping him.

The trade vs keep is really comparing two unknowns, one of which is cost and one is return.

In some ways I think trade vs keep is kind of a wash, it is how you align all of your moves together to maximize the trade path or keep path. In the end, it is likely that you won't be excited about Coby on his new deal and also not excited about the return he fetches.

It is clear we want to maximize the keep path based on our other decisions all pointing that way.