2025 Draft prospects - thread 2

[sco]

Here is the top 10:

1. Cooper Flagg, Duke

2. Johni Broome, Auburn

3. Joseph Tugler, Houston

4. Braden Huff, Gonzaga

5. Thomas Haugh, Florida

6. Kon Knueppel, Duke

7. Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee

8. Kam Jones, Marquette

9. Braden Smith, Purdue

10. Walter Clayton, Florida

Seems like a reasonable list. Also this is based on stats not option. The numbers are what the numbers are. You dont have to like it.

Seems like they are only including highly ranked teams.

Competition matters. Its why Drake can go 31-4 and be unranked and an 11th seed in the tournament

We haven't discussed Clayton much. He's gone on a historic heater during the tourney. Thoughts on us drafting him?

[DuckIII]

There is really only one big swing guy in the 15 range, Noa Essengue. He could jump during the pre draft process though.

Demin as well.

Is that a big swing when the upside is pre all star break Giddey? We just had discussions over was that guy worth 15M per year.

He’s a freshman in college. A 6’9 PG who passes like Magic Johnson. I’m not going to microanalyze where he might be in 4 years. He projects to be one of the few truly unique players who may be available in the middle of the first round that, if things shake out right, could be the type of stud you can’t just go out and get. That’s the point.

He might end up sucking. I don’t care. Take the swing.

[Guru]

Here is the top 10:

1. Cooper Flagg, Duke

2. Johni Broome, Auburn

3. Joseph Tugler, Houston

4. Braden Huff, Gonzaga

5. Thomas Haugh, Florida

6. Kon Knueppel, Duke

7. Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee

8. Kam Jones, Marquette

9. Braden Smith, Purdue

10. Walter Clayton, Florida

Seems like a reasonable list. Also this is based on stats not option. The numbers are what the numbers are. You dont have to like it.

Seems like they are only including highly ranked teams.

Competition matters. Its why Drake can go 31-4 and be unranked and an 11th seed in the tournament

How is competition factored into his models?

[Guru]

Demin as well.

Is that a big swing when the upside is pre all star break Giddey? We just had discussions over was that guy worth 15M per year.

He’s a freshman in college. A 6’9 PG who passes like Magic Johnson. I’m not going to microanalyze where he might be in 4 years. He projects to be one of the few truly unique players who may be available in the middle of the first round that, if things shake out right, could be the type of stud you can’t just go out and get. That’s the point.

He might end up sucking. I don’t care. Take the swing.

Did you say similar things about Patrick Williams due to his size and athleticism?

[Jcool0]

Seems like they are only including highly ranked teams.

Competition matters. Its why Drake can go 31-4 and be unranked and an 11th seed in the tournament

We haven't discussed Clayton much. He's gone on a historic heater during the tourney. Thoughts on us drafting him?

Might be one of those great college guys with no place in the NBA. 6'2" combo guard & might never be a okay NBA defender. Will be 23 during his rookie year. For comparison Kon Knueppel will be 20. Probably a good enough shooter to stick in the NBA. Maybe a Seth Curry type.

He only had 133 attempts at the rim this year, per Bart Torvik, which is a bit of a low number for 38 games played. He made 64.7 percent of those attempts. Rutgers guard Dylan Harper, the likely No. 2 pick in this draft, had 170 rim attempts in 29 games, and made 70 percent of those looks.

Clayton isn’t the most explosive athlete, which hurts him finishing at the rim and getting to the foul line. He only had six dunks all year, and his 41.9 percent free throw rate is an average number.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2025/4/7/24402802/walter-clayton-nba-draft-range-comparison-march-madness

[sco]

Competition matters. Its why Drake can go 31-4 and be unranked and an 11th seed in the tournament

We haven't discussed Clayton much. He's gone on a historic heater during the tourney. Thoughts on us drafting him?

Might be one of those great college guys with no place in the NBA. 6'2" shooting guard & might never be a okay NBA defender. Will be 23 during his rookie year. For comparison Kon Knueppel will be 20. Probably a good enough shooter to stick in the NBA. Maybe a Seth Curry type.

Fair. That said, the comparisons to Kemba and Brunson seem to resonate.

[Jcool0]

We haven't discussed Clayton much. He's gone on a historic heater during the tourney. Thoughts on us drafting him?

Might be one of those great college guys with no place in the NBA. 6'2" shooting guard & might never be a okay NBA defender. Will be 23 during his rookie year. For comparison Kon Knueppel will be 20. Probably a good enough shooter to stick in the NBA. Maybe a Seth Curry type.

Fair. That said, the comparisons to Kemba and Brunson seem to resonate.

I think this hurts the comparison:

He only had 133 attempts at the rim this year, per Bart Torvik, which is a bit of a low number for 38 games played. He made 64.7 percent of those attempts. Rutgers guard Dylan Harper, the likely No. 2 pick in this draft, had 170 rim attempts in 29 games, and made 70 percent of those looks.

Clayton isn’t the most explosive athlete, which hurts him finishing at the rim and getting to the foul line. He only had six dunks all year, and his 41.9 percent free throw rate is an average number.

[Rose2Boozer]

I'd take Ben Saraf over Egor Demin.

[CROBulls]

I'd take Ben Saraf over Egor Demin.

I get what you saying, but you cannot teach size. 6'9 and high IQ can't be taught, but shooting can. Outside top 10 you take another high IQ passer who you can play. Guy can learn from guy like Giddey who was similar prospect. Demin maybe needs a G-league experience for a year, but if shooting is a thing he needs there are plenty of shots to do there.

[Rose2Boozer]

I'd take Ben Saraf over Egor Demin.

I get what you saying, but you cannot teach size. 6'9 and high IQ can't be taught, but shooting can. Outside top 10 you take another high IQ passer who you can play. Guy can learn from guy like Giddey who was similar prospect. Demin maybe needs a G-league experience for a year, but if shooting is a thing he needs there are plenty of shots to do there.

You can't teach aggression. Demin has trouble shooting and he has trouble turning the corner due to his poor first step. Josh Giddey is aggressive, and it unlocks his passing. Sure, 6'9 is great, but poor shooting, a weak first step, and an inability to play off ball makes drafting Demin a rough call. I was high on Demin and then the fluffy part of BYU's schedule ended.

[Guru]

I'd take Ben Saraf over Egor Demin.

I get what you saying, but you cannot teach size. 6'9 and high IQ can't be taught, but shooting can. Outside top 10 you take another high IQ passer who you can play. Guy can learn from guy like Giddey who was similar prospect. Demin maybe needs a G-league experience for a year, but if shooting is a thing he needs there are plenty of shots to do there.

And you get another poor defender?

Demin shouldn't be on anyone lists. He and Malauch are just projection. We shouldn't be taking guesses at players who do one thing ok and the other 5 pieces of their game are bad to unknown. Those guys are hard passes for me.

Whoever keeps saying we shouldn't draft negative defenders is right.

[jacoby1us]

Clayton Jr. is the real deal, I can definitely see his game at the peak level of Playoff Jamal Murray. He should honestly be Top 5 right now.

[CROBulls]

I'd take Ben Saraf over Egor Demin.

I get what you saying, but you cannot teach size. 6'9 and high IQ can't be taught, but shooting can. Outside top 10 you take another high IQ passer who you can play. Guy can learn from guy like Giddey who was similar prospect. Demin maybe needs a G-league experience for a year, but if shooting is a thing he needs there are plenty of shots to do there.

And you get another poor defender?

Demin shouldn't be on anyone lists. He and Malauch are just projection. We shouldn't be taking guesses at players who do one thing ok and the other 5 pieces of their game are bad to unknown. Those guys are hard passes for me.

Whoever keeps saying we shouldn't draft negative defenders is right.

Demin is not poor defender. I dont think anyone should talk about poor defense when people still enjoying watching Bulls last 5 years.

[nomorezorro]

not anything specific to how any individual player in this draft will develop, because i haven't done enough research into that, but i think the common perception of what a "high upside" player looks like is pretty misguided.

a lot of attention is given to guys like demin as potential "big swings" — prospects with one or two potentially-elite skills and/or great physical/athletic traits, but who also have a bunch of glaring weakness and is often on balance not particularly good at basketball compared to other players in his class. but in practice, how often do you really see those guys turn into anything? who's an example of a guy in the league who followed that developmental arc?

even the giannis model — take a guy who's a physical freak but pretty much a ball of clay as a player and hope he develops into something down the line — basically only applies to giannis of the current crop of star players in the league. i think a far more common path is when someone who's generally perceived to have a "low ceiling" unexpectedly finds a dimension to their game that nobody really picked up on during the scouting process. players like haliburton, kawhi, jimmy, brunson — these weren't "one elite trait and a bunch of garbage" guys; they were decently well rounded players with some weaknesses that were perceived to limit their chances of becoming true impact pieces.

now, i don't know how you determine which guys will defy the odds and burst through their "low ceiling." i don't think anyone really knows that, or else they would be the most coveted talent evaluator in the world. but i do think it shows it's misguided to only target a specific type of "high ceiling" prospect if you're hoping to find a star player outside of the lottery

[Ice Man]

Good post, nomorezorro. That is an excellent point, which I had not considered.

To which I would add ... MOTOR!

Steph ain't Steph if he ever stops moving
Giannis is a nonstop whirlwind
Jokic runs the floor, again and again and again
Butler has slowed with age, but he was a two-way dynamo in his prime
Draymond is renowned for his motor

I could go on and on. A BIG differentiator between the lower draft picks who become All Stars and the guys who don't is their work rate. And as Gilbert Arenas recently said, "You can't teach a motor." Which is true. You can't. Guys who come into the league with low energy don't one day figure it out, and the guys who come with high energy don't even lose it. I mean, they might not have enough skills/athleticism to really succeed, as with Nwaba, Archie, Javonte, TJ McConnell, etc., but they always have that motor.

[Jcool0]

Clayton Jr. is the real deal, I can definitely see his game at the peak level of Playoff Jamal Murray. He should honestly be Top 5 right now.

He should be going #1 Michael Jordan 2.0. Teams are going to regret passing on the future face of the league.

[Ice Man]

He should be going #1 Michael Jordan 2.0. Teams are going to regret passing on the future face of the league.

Green font, I assume. Although I will say, have only seen him play once, and he damn well looked like a #1 pick in that game. The man was born swishing 25 footers off the dribble.

[WindyCityBorn]

Demin as well.

Is that a big swing when the upside is pre all star break Giddey? We just had discussions over was that guy worth 15M per year.

He’s a freshman in college. A 6’9 PG who passes like Magic Johnson. I’m not going to microanalyze where he might be in 4 years. He projects to be one of the few truly unique players who may be available in the middle of the first round that, if things shake out right, could be the type of stud you can’t just go out and get. That’s the point.

He might end up sucking. I don’t care. Take the swing.

We already have uniquely talented 6’8” PG that’s only 22 years old.

I do care if our pick ends up sucking!

[Jcool0]

He should be going #1 Michael Jordan 2.0. Teams are going to regret passing on the future face of the league.

Green font, I assume. Although I will say, have only seen him play once, and he damn well looked like a #1 pick in that game. The man was born swishing 25 footers off the dribble.

Dripping of sarcasm. As i said earlier: Will be 23 during his rookie year. 6'2" combo guard and at best an below average athlete. His shooting will keep him in the league but nothing more then a 7th man unless something 1 in a million accrues. Mac McClung current dunk champ and former Bull is averaging 25.7 ppg (37.8% from 3 on 6.7 attempts) , 3.9 rebounds and 5.7 assists in the G league. He is 6'2", 185lbs and cant get any minutes in the NBA.

[DuckIII]

Is that a big swing when the upside is pre all star break Giddey? We just had discussions over was that guy worth 15M per year.

He’s a freshman in college. A 6’9 PG who passes like Magic Johnson. I’m not going to microanalyze where he might be in 4 years. He projects to be one of the few truly unique players who may be available in the middle of the first round that, if things shake out right, could be the type of stud you can’t just go out and get. That’s the point.

He might end up sucking. I don’t care. Take the swing.

Did you say similar things about Patrick Williams due to his size and athleticism?

No. I was even more confident of Pat’s physical talent and body. Much, much more confident. I still think he has all that. Unfortunately he appears to have the aggressiveness of a bowl of mashed potatoes and I no longer believe that will meaningfully change.

I’m sorry if you thought I was one of those guys who has a problem admitting being wrong.

And Demin could fall flat on his face too, of course.

At the of the day I guess it doesn’t really matter who we pick. The act of picking whomever that is renders it correct. Why? Because “AK don’t miss.”