Board opinion: do we want to beat Miami?

[bullskokie]

I have been dreaming about this for two nights now… we beat the Heat, Magic and then we lose to the Cavs in 7. No lottery or deep playoff for us… But I guarantee 100% we will get RESPECT!

[dougthonus]

I did note looking at their data that it's a relatively smooth decline as you go through the draft - so to your point, I think smoothing it would give you pretty good picture, but looking at the surrounding picks, I think what I put together is in the general ballpark of what it would look like if you smoothed it.

Doesn't look very smooth to me at least in terms of getitng at least an All-Star, there's a huge decline after top 11 and then almost no decline.

It is interesting that once you draft lower than 11, it doesn't matter. There's not a big difference in All Star results between #12, #18, and #24. That coincides with what we've seen from GMs in pick protections, they usually put in protections for top 12. And of course, we're most likely drafting #12.



It's funny that the worst top pick for producing all-stars is #7, the pick the Bulls are famous for repeatedly getting.

ChatGPT smoothing out the curve would say there is basically no difference between 12 / 15. Also worth noting again that we may also have 13 and not 12 if we lose the coin flip assuming Dallas and us both miss the playoffs.

[prolific passer]

Sure. That makes sense as far as it goes. But the scenario is really this, basically:

94% chance of drafting #12 plus a 6% chance of moving up and having a significantly increased chance of that player becoming a star vs. drafting at around #15 and having the odds you referenced.

According to this, https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-draft-history-how-likely-are-you-to-land-a-star-at-each-pick/, there is a 65% chance at #1, 42% chance at #2 45% chance at #3, and 34% chance at #4 of the pick becoming an All-Star. Rounding the numbers, there's a 13% chance at #12, but only a 7% chance at 15 (roughly the same as you noted), so there does seem to be some meaningful difference at those slots, even if the Bulls didn't move up.

So, the scenario here is, roughly:

Lose to Miami:

.94 (chance of not moving up) x .13 (chance #12 is an All-Star) + .06 (chance of moving up) x .46% (chance of star in top 4) = 21% overall chance of securing an All-Star.

Go to playoffs:

7% chance of securing an All-Star at #15.

It's a fairly significant swing. I'm not the biggest math whiz, so let me know if you see anything wrong with this thinking.

I think this is correct mathematically except that their calculations for values at picks aren't done in a sound way. They are using the literal results of each selection, and aren't smoothing out the curve, so that they have things like you're 0% likely to get an MVP at 14 but 3% likely at 15. Well at 14, you could have taken the guy at 15.

That said, ignoring this quibble, you are correct that I didn't properly account for the gap between what happens at 12 vs 15 when you stay, but I think you'd need to do a lot more work to figure out how big that gap really is vs using their numbers, and I think deciding that methodology to do so fairly is more detail than I want to get into.

Nerds.

Homer Simpson approved

[Guru]

Looks like we can pick 12, 13, 14, 15,16, 1, 2, 3, 4

16 would take Dallas and us both making the play in
1-2-3-4 would be if we win and win the lottery
12 is the tie breaker with Dallas
14 is if Sacramento won the lottery.

[kodo]

ChatGPT smoothing out the curve would say there is basically no difference between 12 / 15. Also worth noting again that we may also have 13 and not 12 if we lose the coin flip assuming Dallas and us both miss the playoffs.

Why would you want to artificially alter the data? I've never asked or had analytics do such a thing.
But 12+ I would agree the differences are probably just noise due to a low volume data set of 1 player per year per draft slot.

[dougthonus]

ChatGPT smoothing out the curve would say there is basically no difference between 12 / 15. Also worth noting again that we may also have 13 and not 12 if we lose the coin flip assuming Dallas and us both miss the playoffs.

Why would you want to artificially alter the data? I've never asked or had analytics do such a thing.
But 12+ I would agree the differences are probably just noise due to a low volume data set of 1 player per year per draft slot.

I'm not sure if you misunderstand what I'm doing, but this is the fundamental data regression which is probably one of the most common statistical methods. You would use the raw data to create an estimated formula, and the estimated formula will create a smoothed curve.

Your regression formula is more predictive than the raw data, because the raw data typically has a lot of variance.

That's common sense here, we know there is no reason to expect a later pick to have more value than an earlier pick in reality, but that happens all the time in this raw data due to limited sample size / dumb luck, but you would never predict that pick #18 will return more value than pick #15 over the next 20 years because it did over the previous 20.

Smoothing the curve is just representing based on all the data a guess at what the real expected values are while attempting to control for random chance / luck

[jc23]

yes. if demar and zach were still on the team the answer would be the opposite. Now that we are young lets get some playoff experience.

[DropStep]

I did note looking at their data that it's a relatively smooth decline as you go through the draft - so to your point, I think smoothing it would give you pretty good picture, but looking at the surrounding picks, I think what I put together is in the general ballpark of what it would look like if you smoothed it.

Doesn't look very smooth to me at least in terms of getitng at least an All-Star, there's a huge decline after top 11 and then almost no decline.

It is interesting that once you draft lower than 11, it doesn't matter. There's not a big difference in All Star results between #12, #18, and #24. That coincides with what we've seen from GMs in pick protections, they usually put in protections for top 12. And of course, we're most likely drafting #12.



It's funny that the worst top pick for producing all-stars is #7, the pick the Bulls are famous for repeatedly getting.

It's funny because it's literally us. A good bit of that white space above the #7 bar is the Bulls' actual lousy #7 picks being shown in the data.

[sco]

I did note looking at their data that it's a relatively smooth decline as you go through the draft - so to your point, I think smoothing it would give you pretty good picture, but looking at the surrounding picks, I think what I put together is in the general ballpark of what it would look like if you smoothed it.

Doesn't look very smooth to me at least in terms of getitng at least an All-Star, there's a huge decline after top 11 and then almost no decline.

It is interesting that once you draft lower than 11, it doesn't matter. There's not a big difference in All Star results between #12, #18, and #24. That coincides with what we've seen from GMs in pick protections, they usually put in protections for top 12. And of course, we're most likely drafting #12.



It's funny that the worst top pick for producing all-stars is #7, the pick the Bulls are famous for repeatedly getting.

It's funny because it's literally us. A good bit of that white space above the #7 bar is the Bulls' actual lousy #7 picks being shown in the data.

True, but in hindsight, the Coby and Lauri picks were actually good...just the WCJ was a bad one, and he's not terrible.

[SfBull]

Surely yes, let's beat the Heat and go as deep as possible in the playoffs,Giddey is playing very well.

[Guru]

Looks like we can pick 12, 13, 14, 15,16, 1, 2, 3, 4

16 would take Dallas and us both making the play in
1-2-3-4 would be if we win and win the lottery
12 is the tie breaker with Dallas
14 is if Sacramento won the lottery.

So now this is

1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 12, 13, 14

[prolific passer]

Be nice if the bulls win but the heat are more experienced and are better coached so don't be surprise if they lose. At least they get a lottery pick if they lose in a pretty deep draft.

at this post.

[dougthonus]

It's funny because it's literally us. A good bit of that white space above the #7 bar is the Bulls' actual lousy #7 picks being shown in the data.

We had three #7s and one has been an all-star, so we're operating above the #7 curve.

[dougthonus]

Looks like we can pick 12, 13, 14, 15,16, 1, 2, 3, 4

16 would take Dallas and us both making the play in
1-2-3-4 would be if we win and win the lottery
12 is the tie breaker with Dallas
14 is if Sacramento won the lottery.

So now this is

1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 12, 13, 14

I don't think there is any way we can be 11.

[GoBlue72391]

I have been dreaming about this for two nights now… we beat the Heat, Magic and then we lose to the Cavs in 7. No lottery or deep playoff for us… But I guarantee 100% we will get RESPECT!

Are we respected yet?

[Hangtime84]

I think they need to go through pain and watch all those high turnover games together

[Guru]

Looks like we can pick 12, 13, 14, 15,16, 1, 2, 3, 4

16 would take Dallas and us both making the play in
1-2-3-4 would be if we win and win the lottery
12 is the tie breaker with Dallas
14 is if Sacramento won the lottery.

So now this is

1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 12, 13, 14

I don't think there is any way we can be 11.

If Miami wins the play in and we win the coin flip.

[ChiSportsGuy]

Looks like we can pick 12, 13, 14, 15,16, 1, 2, 3, 4

16 would take Dallas and us both making the play in
1-2-3-4 would be if we win and win the lottery
12 is the tie breaker with Dallas
14 is if Sacramento won the lottery.

So now this is

1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 12, 13, 14

I don't think there is any way we can be 11.

Wouldn’t the Bulls be 11 if both Miami and Dallas are the #8 seed in the east and west respectively? Sacramento / Atlanta / Memphis all finished with a better record than the Bulls.

If Miami and Dallas make playoffs: Bulls 11
If Miami makes playoffs and Dallas misses: Bulls and Dallas split ping pong balls for 11 & 12 spots
If Miami and Dallas miss playoffs: Bulls and Dallas split ping pong balls for 12 & 13 spots

Feel free to correct me, but that’s how I interpreted it.

[dougthonus]

So now this is

1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 12, 13, 14

I don't think there is any way we can be 11.

If Miami wins the play in and we win the coin flip.

Ahh, yeah, hadn't considered that. Fair chance Miami can beat Atlanta too, that is a toss up game.

[dougthonus]

So now this is

1, 2, 3, 4, 11, 12, 13, 14

I don't think there is any way we can be 11.

Wouldn’t the Bulls be 11 if both Miami and Dallas are the #8 seed in the east and west respectively? Sacramento / Atlanta / Memphis all finished with a better record than the Bulls.

If Miami and Dallas make playoffs: Bulls 11
If Miami makes playoffs and Dallas misses: Bulls and Dallas split ping pong balls for 11 & 12 spots
If Miami and Dallas miss playoffs: Bulls and Dallas split ping pong balls for 12 & 13 spots

Feel free to correct me, but that’s how I interpreted it.

You are right. I'm now a big Miami fan next game