The Bulls should go all in for Zion

[Infinity2152]

Risk is relative. I'm still waiting for the "No Zion" crowd to suggest a method of getting any current number 1 option in the league other than Zion. If people agree we need a number 1, top 10 level player we have to do something. The chances of getting a top 10 player in the league thru the draft have to be less than 1% at any pick besides 1. And Zion's not the only number 1 pick constantly injured (Anthony Davis, Ben Simmons, Joel Embid). Or you get KAT, Andrew Wiggins, DeAndre Ayton, Markell Fultz, Anthony Bennett. Most of the actual number 1's in the league are drafted all over the place. That's not a plan.

Suggest an alternative to getting a top 10 player with low injury concerns. That's not 35 years old or older. They rarely become available and you usually have to trade the other team the world when they do. If the idea is to target another top player, cool. Who? Or do we keep overvaluing our players and picks and stay a mid team with no number 1? What's the risk of adding a player when you can void his contract, other than the value of what you sent out for him? Should depend on the cost to acquire Zion, imo.

This team needs to keep cap flexibility until 2027 free agency, or until AK is fired. Any more costly cap trades by AK will set us back another 5 years.

In the meantime, guy can use his capologist experts, good player relationships to resign Giddey and Tre cheap. He should also draft another Matas caliber prospect. And dump Patrick without shedding too costly of an asset.

Getting a superstar via play-ins is a pipe-dream, and getting Zion to have a healthy remaining career is also a pipe-dream.

Cap Flexibility: This deal sends Coby (most are predicting around $30 mill) and two first round picks (total cost probably around $8-9 mill). Our cap space is roughly the same with re-signed Coby and pay the rookies. Except their contracts won't be voidable. The point of getting cap space is to add players at Zion's level right? We could do what we usually do and use that $40 mill on a player like Lavine or Derozan, I guess. Because number 1's almost never hit free agency, and again the cost to get one thru trade is half your team and all your picks. Getting a superstar in the draft is a pipe dream, how many superstars are drafted each draft and what are the odds you pick the Giannis or Kawhi out of the bunch when the best player goes at 15? There's a reasonable chance to get a good player or a star with a high pick, superstars seem to get drafted all over.

He's not re-signing Giddey at under $30 mill i don't think. That starts our clock. Matas will be in his second year. Two cheap years after that. I'm hoping by the time we complete free agency 2026, we have a complete squad. Lot of smoke in NO, Zion might be sold at fire sale prices. I know some will disagree. His market would probably not be huge this summer.

Flip the script. Is he likely to lose value the next two years, or gain value? He's been injured and his team is ready to move on, plus the off the court antics. Value at an all-time low. Say he's healthy the first half of next season. Forget healthy the next 4 years. What's his value at the deadline if he's been healthy and putting up 28 pts on 65% shooting for a few months straight? His last injury was a back contusion, that could happen to anybody. He was much slimmer than past years.

I promise we're all dubious over his injury issues. I think some of us disagree on the risk/reward. Sounds like the main reasons for them trading him are personal issues, not the injury issues. We might be able to get a bargain.

[greenwing]

A Zion trade is an all in type of move based on his contract. You’re banking on health and star power to convince another star to want to team up with him and Giddey.

I think if you extend Giddey then it’s a move that could accelerate a rebuild but it’s a gutsy one considering we just got away from Lavine’s contract. I don’t think it would take that much more than Coby and Vuc plus filler to get the job done given Zion’s availability history as well as his contract.

McCollum/White/Murray/Ingram/Vucevic is at least a competitive core with better financial flexibility for New Orleans.

Giddey/Huerter/Buzelis/Zion/Collins is a balanced core that looks to be one star away from being a legitimate threat in the EC.

Granted, if the lotto balls somehow work out for us then I don’t think this is entertained at all but it’s at least an interesting possibility.

[MrSparkle]

Risk is relative. I'm still waiting for the "No Zion" crowd to suggest a method of getting any current number 1 option in the league other than Zion. If people agree we need a number 1, top 10 level player we have to do something. The chances of getting a top 10 player in the league thru the draft have to be less than 1% at any pick besides 1. And Zion's not the only number 1 pick constantly injured (Anthony Davis, Ben Simmons, Joel Embid). Or you get KAT, Andrew Wiggins, DeAndre Ayton, Markell Fultz, Anthony Bennett. Most of the actual number 1's in the league are drafted all over the place. That's not a plan.

Suggest an alternative to getting a top 10 player with low injury concerns. That's not 35 years old or older. They rarely become available and you usually have to trade the other team the world when they do. If the idea is to target another top player, cool. Who? Or do we keep overvaluing our players and picks and stay a mid team with no number 1? What's the risk of adding a player when you can void his contract, other than the value of what you sent out for him? Should depend on the cost to acquire Zion, imo.

This team needs to keep cap flexibility until 2027 free agency, or until AK is fired. Any more costly cap trades by AK will set us back another 5 years.

In the meantime, guy can use his capologist experts, good player relationships to resign Giddey and Tre cheap. He should also draft another Matas caliber prospect. And dump Patrick without shedding too costly of an asset.

Getting a superstar via play-ins is a pipe-dream, and getting Zion to have a healthy remaining career is also a pipe-dream.

Cap Flexibility: This deal sends Coby (most are predicting around $30 mill) and two first round picks (total cost probably around $8-9 mill). Our cap space is roughly the same with re-signed Coby and pay the rookies. Except their contracts won't be voidable. The point of getting cap space is to add players at Zion's level right? We could do what we usually do and use that $40 mill on a player like Lavine or Derozan, I guess. Because number 1's almost never hit free agency, and again the cost to get one thru trade is half your team and all your picks. Getting a superstar in the draft is a pipe dream, how many superstars are drafted each draft and what are the odds you pick the Giannis or Kawhi out of the bunch when the best player goes at 15? There's a reasonable chance to get a good player or a star with a high pick, superstars seem to get drafted all over.

He's not re-signing Giddey at under $30 mill i don't think. That starts our clock. Matas will be in his second year. Two cheap years after that. I'm hoping by the time we complete free agency 2026, we have a complete squad. Lot of smoke in NO, Zion might be sold at fire sale prices. I know some will disagree. His market would probably not be huge this summer.

Flip the script. Is he likely to lose value the next two years, or gain value? He's been injured and his team is ready to move on, plus the off the court antics. Value at an all-time low. Say he's healthy the first half of next season. Forget healthy the next 4 years. What's his value at the deadline if he's been healthy and putting up 28 pts on 65% shooting for a few months straight? His last injury was a back contusion, that could happen to anybody. He was much slimmer than past years.

I promise we're all dubious over his injury issues. I think some of us disagree on the risk/reward. Sounds like the main reasons for them trading him are personal issues, not the injury issues. We might be able to get a bargain.

Dubious over his injury issues? Dude has missed 4 of 6 seasons if 31 games is considered a season.

[Infinity2152]

A Zion trade is an all in type of move based on his contract. You’re banking on health and star power to convince another star to want to team up with him and Giddey.

I think if you extend Giddey then it’s a move that could accelerate a rebuild but it’s a gutsy one considering we just got away from Lavine’s contract. I don’t think it would take that much more than Coby and Vuc plus filler to get the job done given Zion’s availability history as well as his contract.

McCollum/White/Murray/Ingram/Vucevic is at least a competitive core with better financial flexibility for New Orleans.

Giddey/Huerter/Buzelis/Zion/Collins is a balanced core that looks to be one star away from being a legitimate threat in the EC.

Granted, if the lotto balls somehow work out for us then I don’t think this is entertained at all but it’s at least an interesting possibility.

Don't see it as all in as long as Matas and Giddey aren't included. Don't think you even need another star if Zion is reasonably healthy. Very good defensive shooting guard and center, strong bench, that's a contender. Should have cap space to do so, Giddey and Zion would combine to be one of the lowest paid star duo combos in the league and Matas is still on rookie. Again, not trying to trade the 2025 pick, so that's one player who could hopefully fill one of those spots. For them to get that pick, Pat Will goes in the trade instead of Vuc and I replace that spot with the expiring $20 mill summer 2026.

And if we don't like Zion, trade him back out! The resources we're talking about trading (Coby, expiring, picks) aren't central to the team. Zion would need a career ending injury not to retain trade value equal to Coby and some picks. Picks the next few years should be mid at best, hopefully really low.

[MrSparkle]

It’d also be funny if AK went for Zion after his 10 good player speech. That would indicate he’s not pursuing any star talent at the expense of depth assets.

[Infinity2152]

It’d also be funny if AK went for Zion after his 10 good player speech. That would indicate he’s not pursuing any star talent at the expense of depth assets.

Hilarious! Because the fact that we haven't had a top 10 player on this team since Derrick Rose has so little to do with this teams win/loss record over that period, lol.

Damn, it's been a long time since we had a superstar level player! Have we had one since Rose? Tell me I'm forgetting somebody.

[MrSparkle]

It’d also be funny if AK went for Zion after his 10 good player speech. That would indicate he’s not pursuing any star talent at the expense of depth assets.

Hilarious! Because the fact that we haven't had a top 10 player on this team since Derrick Rose has so little to do with this teams win/loss record over that period, lol.

Damn, it's been a long time since we had a superstar level player! Have we had one since Rose? Tell me I'm forgetting somebody.

Butler?

[Charlesareed]

Why do he can continue to collect free money for not being in shape why so he can continue to be in street clothes collecting money for being lazy why s he can continue to be spoiled for not being that good to begin with no thanks

[WindyCityBorn]

It’d also be funny if AK went for Zion after his 10 good player speech. That would indicate he’s not pursuing any star talent at the expense of depth assets.

Hilarious! Because the fact that we haven't had a top 10 player on this team since Derrick Rose has so little to do with this teams win/loss record over that period, lol.

Damn, it's been a long time since we had a superstar level player! Have we had one since Rose? Tell me I'm forgetting somebody.

Zion is definitely not a top 10 player. That requires you to actually play. He might be a top 10 talent.

[MrSparkle]

Zion’s amazing in his 29 games a year. It’s just that this team can’t afford such a high-risk. Reason being at best, he still wouldn’t have a complimentary core (Rim protector? Point-of-attack guard? Established stars?), and at worst (injuries), we’d be capped as an Eastern play-in team with no picks.

The way AK settles, and the way NOP is preparing his market with the trade press, I’m certain the bare minimum will have to be two FRPs (3 if Patrick is included).

[Jeffster81]

Zion’s amazing in his 29 games a year. It’s just that this team can’t afford such a high-risk. Reason being at best, he still wouldn’t have a complimentary core (Rim protector? Point-of-attack guard? Established stars?), and at worst (injuries), we’d be capped as an Eastern play-in team with no picks.

The way AK settles, and the way NOP is preparing his market with the trade press, I’m certain the bare minimum will have to be two FRPs (3 if Patrick is included).

NO have to tack on frp to get the Bulls to take him of their hands.

[greenwing]

Zion’s amazing in his 29 games a year. It’s just that this team can’t afford such a high-risk. Reason being at best, he still wouldn’t have a complimentary core (Rim protector? Point-of-attack guard? Established stars?), and at worst (injuries), we’d be capped as an Eastern play-in team with no picks.

The way AK settles, and the way NOP is preparing his market with the trade press, I’m certain the bare minimum will have to be two FRPs (3 if Patrick is included).

I don’t think his market is that high. He’s only played in more than 30 games in a regular season twice in six years. And he has an albatross of a contract considering his availability. He’s being paid currently based on his talent level - not what he is actually worth. Any team that acquires him is making a huge gamble and that has to factor into whatever trade return that the Pelicans will get for him should they decide to move on. That being said, it just takes one GM to make a crazy offer beyond market value so who knows?

[Infinity2152]

Seems like most people in here are giving Zion like 10% chance to play more than 50 games. Average games per year sucks as a stat because some injuries are way longer than others. He missed one entire season, throws the curve. In two of his six seasons, Zion has played 61 and 70 games. The 70 was just last year. 33% of his seasons he's played over 60 games. He's lighter and older now while still being early 20's, presumably smarter. Shouldn't his odds be at least 33% or more he plays 60+ next season?

Over the last two seasons he's averaged 50 games for instance. He's at least 20 lbs lighter than he was three years ago. His injuries are not chronic and most appear to be weight related. If he keeps the pounds off, he should be heathier at the very least. His last injury was a back contusion from falling on that hard floor, couldn't that happen to anyone? No matter what size, if they're a high flyer? Do those missed games add to his injury proneness? It was a contact injury.

In a sense, I guess his style of play will lead to more injuries, the same as for any player that frequently attacks the basket and gets fouled, rather than taking mostly jump shots. But that risk comes with any attacker.

[MrSparkle]

Seems like most people in here are giving Zion like 10% chance to play more than 50 games. Average games per year sucks as a stat because some injuries are way longer than others. He missed one entire season, throws the curve. In two of his six seasons, Zion has played 61 and 70 games. The 70 was just last year. 33% of his seasons he's played over 60 games. He's lighter and older now while still being early 20's, presumably smarter. Shouldn't his odds be at least 33% or more he plays 60+ next season?

Over the last two seasons he's averaged 50 games for instance. He's at least 20 lbs lighter than he was three years ago. His injuries are not chronic and most appear to be weight related. If he keeps the pounds off, he should be heathier at the very least. His last injury was a back contusion from falling on that hard floor, couldn't that happen to anyone? No matter what size, if they're a high flyer? Do those missed games add to his injury proneness? It was a contact injury.

In a sense, I guess his style of play will lead to more injuries, the same as for any player that frequently attacks the basket and gets fouled, rather than taking mostly jump shots. But that risk comes with any attacker.

Are you a pro in advertising? He literally just finished a season with 30 games. I mean, yes, the average of 70 and 30 is 50, but that’s a funny cherry to pick. He’s averaged 32 games in the last 4 years.

10%? I’d say anything below 75% odds of a decent healthy run (50+ games and playoffs to be lenient) is a huge risk for 3Y of guaranteed max you’re trading assets for. It’s a triple-whammy. Big cap hold, spending costly assets, and watching the guy hit the injured list atleast once a year.

[bledredwine]

Zion has averaged 45 games…. half of the games, per season for his first five years now.

Are you guys crazy?


Sign me up as well.

[sco]

This team needs to keep cap flexibility until 2027 free agency, or until AK is fired. Any more costly cap trades by AK will set us back another 5 years.

In the meantime, guy can use his capologist experts, good player relationships to resign Giddey and Tre cheap. He should also draft another Matas caliber prospect. And dump Patrick without shedding too costly of an asset.

Getting a superstar via play-ins is a pipe-dream, and getting Zion to have a healthy remaining career is also a pipe-dream.

Cap Flexibility: This deal sends Coby (most are predicting around $30 mill) and two first round picks (total cost probably around $8-9 mill). Our cap space is roughly the same with re-signed Coby and pay the rookies. Except their contracts won't be voidable. The point of getting cap space is to add players at Zion's level right? We could do what we usually do and use that $40 mill on a player like Lavine or Derozan, I guess. Because number 1's almost never hit free agency, and again the cost to get one thru trade is half your team and all your picks. Getting a superstar in the draft is a pipe dream, how many superstars are drafted each draft and what are the odds you pick the Giannis or Kawhi out of the bunch when the best player goes at 15? There's a reasonable chance to get a good player or a star with a high pick, superstars seem to get drafted all over.

He's not re-signing Giddey at under $30 mill i don't think. That starts our clock. Matas will be in his second year. Two cheap years after that. I'm hoping by the time we complete free agency 2026, we have a complete squad. Lot of smoke in NO, Zion might be sold at fire sale prices. I know some will disagree. His market would probably not be huge this summer.

Flip the script. Is he likely to lose value the next two years, or gain value? He's been injured and his team is ready to move on, plus the off the court antics. Value at an all-time low. Say he's healthy the first half of next season. Forget healthy the next 4 years. What's his value at the deadline if he's been healthy and putting up 28 pts on 65% shooting for a few months straight? His last injury was a back contusion, that could happen to anybody. He was much slimmer than past years.

I promise we're all dubious over his injury issues. I think some of us disagree on the risk/reward. Sounds like the main reasons for them trading him are personal issues, not the injury issues. We might be able to get a bargain.

Dubious over his injury issues? Dude has missed 4 of 6 seasons if 31 games is considered a season.

100% agree on Zion being a success here being a less than 50/50 proposition. My other worry is that AK pays more than 2 1sts + Coby (which IMO is a slight overpay for his injury history) because AK sees himself in the hotseat and is willing to mortgage the future where he isn't here if it fails anyhow. From a cap flexibility perspective, sending out Coby preserves some of it. The hidden upside of a big deal like this is I think the org would be willing to go into the tax to maximize the roster where they would need to see success before doing so with our young core.

If somehow we could work Ball into the deal, our overal team risk would go down, or PWill, which would give us salary flexibility in the future.

I would be excited to see Giddey/Huerter (or Jones if we keep him)/Matas/Zion/Collins (ideally Smith, but that seems impossible). With Zion, even trotting grandpa Vuc might be tennable to watch (MIGHT BE).

[jnrjr79]

Zion’s amazing in his 29 games a year. It’s just that this team can’t afford such a high-risk. Reason being at best, he still wouldn’t have a complimentary core (Rim protector? Point-of-attack guard? Established stars?), and at worst (injuries), we’d be capped as an Eastern play-in team with no picks.

The way AK settles, and the way NOP is preparing his market with the trade press, I’m certain the bare minimum will have to be two FRPs (3 if Patrick is included).

NO have to tack on frp to get the Bulls to take him of their hands.

No, because NO can simply cut him b/c he didn't hit his minimum games played threshold this year for the remainder of his contract to be guaranteed.

[Bulldog23]

I didn’t watch this season at all. Not a fan of AK or Billy. I would watch games just to see Zion play, it wouldn’t matter if the Bulls won. Hate to say it. I really would like the Bulls to trade Coby to a winning franchise.

[dougthonus]

Seems like most people in here are giving Zion like 10% chance to play more than 50 games. Average games per year sucks as a stat because some injuries are way longer than others. He missed one entire season, throws the curve. In two of his six seasons, Zion has played 61 and 70 games. The 70 was just last year. 33% of his seasons he's played over 60 games. He's lighter and older now while still being early 20's, presumably smarter. Shouldn't his odds be at least 33% or more he plays 60+ next season?

Over the last two seasons he's averaged 50 games for instance. He's at least 20 lbs lighter than he was three years ago. His injuries are not chronic and most appear to be weight related. If he keeps the pounds off, he should be heathier at the very least. His last injury was a back contusion from falling on that hard floor, couldn't that happen to anyone? No matter what size, if they're a high flyer? Do those missed games add to his injury proneness? It was a contact injury.

In a sense, I guess his style of play will lead to more injuries, the same as for any player that frequently attacks the basket and gets fouled, rather than taking mostly jump shots. But that risk comes with any attacker.

Here's another way to look at it. In 6 seasons, Zion has never ended a season available for the playoffs. Whether they made it or not, he was shut down at the end of every single year of his career.

I also think it's a huge stretch to say his injuries aren't chronic. He doesn't have a degenerative disease, but anatomically, he doesn't seem to be able to with stand the amount of torque his weight + athleticism puts on his legs. I don't think he's any thinner now than he was coming out of college, where that was still true.

[Ccwatercraft]

If New Orleans accepts 2025 1st and 2nd rounder, POR pick and PWill, do a trade! Otherwise Nope!

I'm not gnerally in favor of a zion trade but that hypothetical works for me, he is the lesser of two evils vs patrick. I don't want to see an overpay for a risky move, we'd Have to add filler also.