Bears 12.0

[TheJordanRule]

I’d also say the reasons I’m hopeful for Caleb as a processor is he did spread the ball around well to different options and didn’t get hyper focused on one guy like Fields. He also did a decent job of feeding the hot hand so if someone was having a good game he got them the ball so these are things that I think of as almost good PG skills it isn’t just random he’s trying to dictate and manage the offense. The other was he did progress throughout the season against tougher competition his trajectory continued to improve even while the coaching was chaotic.

Then one thing I liked that is unrelated to processing is through all of those sacks he still stood in the pocket took hits and tried to deliver the ball. Maybe he shouldn’t have so much but he’s tough and is willing to put it on the line for the team so it’s a good thing to see out of a player. Especially when you have a WR walking off the field while it’s happening.

IK this is more of a gut feeling, instinct from me because the data doesn't bear out much indication that CW's scheduled for major improvement on those deep balls but I still think CW is anyway, will since he's constantly overthrowing people on those deep routes. So it's at least not an issue like Tua (and a third of the other starting NFL QBs, honestly), where even when the read is right, the arm just can't get there. And CW is cerebral AF. The anti-Justin. So how on planet earth is that completion rate going to stay super low after a year of experience?

[TheJordanRule]

This specific issue - Caleb being scared to throw b/c he wanted to avoid picks - seems very much to be a coaching thing.

It'll be interesting to see how that changes, because Johnson has noted specifically that modern thinking has evolved to focus on Expected Points Added. For EPA, sacks are generally viewed as more damaging than picks, so theoretically the priorities may shift.

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/ben-johnson-shared-forward-thinking-234247627.html

The goat didn't do hero ball and he better be the model moving forward. CW needs to give up on that failed strategy. This kid will adjust appropriately because he's too smart not to. Don't try to be Mahomes too fast, CW! We **** love you! Even Mahomes wasn't Mahomes until he adjusted appropriately. CW IS KOBE!!!!

mahomes sat his rookie year and was MVP his 2nd

Damn Dice! U right! Mahomes appeared to adjust almost instantly, which falls in line with what Fleet was talking about. The good ones show it almost instantly. So we have every reason to believe in CW's progression THIS season... so if he doesn't, we're gonna have some real tough choices. What's CW's target for this year, given that?

[chitowndish]

IK this is more of a gut feeling, instinct from me because the data doesn't bear out much indication that CW's scheduled for major improvement on those deep balls but I still think CW is anyway, will since he's constantly overthrowing people on those deep routes. So it's at least not an issue like Tua (and a third of the other starting NFL QBs, honestly), where even when the read is right, the arm just can't get there. And CW is cerebral AF. The anti-Justin. So how on planet earth is that completion rate going to stay super low after a year of experience?

I'm not too worried about it because it was big strength of his in college and he did it on high volume so there is a lot of evidence out there that he can hit receivers deep. I haven't heard a compelling argument about why he was great at something in college but would suck at it one year later but we'll see. For a deep pass to connect you have to have a good plan to get a guy open, you have to have receivers where they are supposed to be going a predictable speed, you have to have enough blocking at the line to provide time and the QB has to recognize and deliver the ball so to just think that's on Caleb when so much was clearly going wrong with that offense doesn't make sense to me. I think deep pass is one of those things that start to come around when an offense starts to build those core things up and to me it is like complaining that the offense isn't running when it can barely walk.

[dice]

IK this is more of a gut feeling, instinct from me because the data doesn't bear out much indication that CW's scheduled for major improvement on those deep balls but I still think CW is anyway, will since he's constantly overthrowing people on those deep routes. So it's at least not an issue like Tua (and a third of the other starting NFL QBs, honestly), where even when the read is right, the arm just can't get there. And CW is cerebral AF. The anti-Justin. So how on planet earth is that completion rate going to stay super low after a year of experience?

I'm not too worried about it because it was big strength of his in college and he did it on high volume so there is a lot of evidence out there that he can hit receivers deep. I haven't heard a compelling argument about why he was great at something in college but would suck at it one year later but we'll see. For a deep pass to connect you have to have a good plan to get a guy open, you have to have receivers where they are supposed to be going a predictable speed, you have to have enough blocking at the line to provide time and the QB has to recognize and deliver the ball so to just think that's on Caleb when so much was clearly going wrong with that offense doesn't make sense to me. I think deep pass is one of those things that start to come around when an offense starts to build those core things up and to me it is like complaining that the offense isn't running when it can barely walk.

AI summary of caleb as a 2024 draft prospect:

"Caleb Williams is widely considered a top-tier quarterback prospect with exceptional arm talent and the ability to make plays from off-platform. However, his deep-ball accuracy is a point of debate, with some scouts expressing concerns about consistency and mechanics, while others highlight his ability to make impressive throws. He is also seen as a player who needs to refine his pocket presence and learn to avoid fumbles."

[chitowndish]

AI summary of caleb as a 2024 draft prospect:

"Caleb Williams is widely considered a top-tier quarterback prospect with exceptional arm talent and the ability to make plays from off-platform. However, his deep-ball accuracy is a point of debate, with some scouts expressing concerns about consistency and mechanics, while others highlight his ability to make impressive throws. He is also seen as a player who needs to refine his pocket presence and learn to avoid fumbles."

This stuff depends so much on the prompt to make sure it's actually just using data from college and not mixing that with his time as a Bear. Also is some of the debate that guy that thought Caleb shouldn't be drafted in the 1st round and thought Rattler was the best QB.

This site has the long ball listed as Caleb's biggest strength and by a fair margin.

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Caleb-Williams-QB-USC

This has a pretty good breakdown of his struggles as a Bear but goes into specifics about college. I'd agree I googled and I keep seeing draft profiles praise his deep ball game and say the problem is he gives up easy plays hunting for big plays but I don't see a lot of people saying he struggled with long passes. This has him in his final year for deep passes as top 5 in accuracy and yards per attempt and with 50+ deep attempts and he had a solid trajectory of improvement through college so it doesn't look like something to be concerned about based on what he did in college he had the volume he had the accuracy and he was throwing deep.

https://www.dabearsblog.com/2025/calebs-close-up-part-2-where-he-threw

On the flip side, Williams absolutely cannot be this bad on downfield passes if he wants to be a successful NFL QB.

These struggles are a big change from Williams’ college production. In 2023, Williams ranked 5th of 52 FBS QBs with 50+ deep passes in accuracy rate (53%) and 2nd among the same sample with 20.3 yards/deep attempt. He was also above average in deep accuracy in 2022 (48%), his only other full season as a starter.

Deep ball accuracy was also widely viewed as one of Williams’ strengths going into the NFL draft. When I Googled “Caleb Williams scouting report,” 6 of the first 7 draft profiles specifically mentioned deep accuracy as a strength (PFF, Pro Football Network, Bleacher Report, NFL Draft Buzz, The Draft Network, and Sports Info Solutions). Only NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein mentioned any issues with deep ball accuracy.

The good news is that Williams already showed in college that he can improve as a deep ball passer as he adjusts to a higher level of football.
In his freshman year at Oklahoma in 2021, Williams was accurate on 42% of deep passes and averaged 13 yards/attempt. This was compared to averages of 43% accuracy and 14 yards/attempt among FBS QBs with 50+ deep attempts, which meant Williams was a slightly below average deep passer in his first college season.

In his 2022 sophomore campaign, overall deep averages stayed consistent, but Williams improved to 48% accuracy and 16 yards/attempt, making him a solidly above-average deep passer (he ranked 14th and 8th of 57 QBs in those categories).
As mentioned above, Williams developed even further into an elite deep passer in his 3rd and final college season, ranking in the top five in both accuracy % and yards/attempt on deep passes.

Williams will need to repeat that similar growth trajectory in the NFL to become a true franchise QB in the NFL.

[Susan]

IK this is more of a gut feeling, instinct from me because the data doesn't bear out much indication that CW's scheduled for major improvement on those deep balls but I still think CW is anyway, will since he's constantly overthrowing people on those deep routes. So it's at least not an issue like Tua (and a third of the other starting NFL QBs, honestly), where even when the read is right, the arm just can't get there. And CW is cerebral AF. The anti-Justin. So how on planet earth is that completion rate going to stay super low after a year of experience?

I'm not too worried about it because it was big strength of his in college and he did it on high volume so there is a lot of evidence out there that he can hit receivers deep. I haven't heard a compelling argument about why he was great at something in college but would suck at it one year later but we'll see. For a deep pass to connect you have to have a good plan to get a guy open, you have to have receivers where they are supposed to be going a predictable speed, you have to have enough blocking at the line to provide time and the QB has to recognize and deliver the ball so to just think that's on Caleb when so much was clearly going wrong with that offense doesn't make sense to me. I think deep pass is one of those things that start to come around when an offense starts to build those core things up and to me it is like complaining that the offense isn't running when it can barely walk.

AI summary of caleb as a 2024 draft prospect:

"Caleb Williams is widely considered a top-tier quarterback prospect with exceptional arm talent and the ability to make plays from off-platform. However, his deep-ball accuracy is a point of debate, with some scouts expressing concerns about consistency and mechanics, while others highlight his ability to make impressive throws. He is also seen as a player who needs to refine his pocket presence and learn to avoid fumbles."

His deep ball accuracy fell off in the second half of 2023. The ND game did something to his confidence.

[fleet]

According to Jeff Hughes, DJ Moore is on the hot seat.

“I think Ben has gone in there and been very hard on him”, Jeff said. “He told him, ‘This is what we expect out of you, and if you don’t deliver it, we have no problem moving on.”

The Luther Burden pick is important in a couple of ways. Although Burden is an interesting personality himself.

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/insider-reveals-bears-star-received-private-warning-from-ben-johnson/

[Chi town]

According to Jeff Hughes, DJ Moore is on the hot seat.

“I think Ben has gone in there and been very hard on him”, Jeff said. “He told him, ‘This is what we expect out of you, and if you don’t deliver it, we have no problem moving on.”

The Luther Burden pick is important in a couple of ways. Although Burden is an interesting personality himself.

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/insider-reveals-bears-star-received-private-warning-from-ben-johnson/

Jeff is dialed in. He also said in that clip that Thuney will make heads roll if players don’t give it all on every play. Guy is a winner and will demand it.

[dougthonus]

IK this is more of a gut feeling, instinct from me because the data doesn't bear out much indication that CW's scheduled for major improvement on those deep balls but I still think CW is anyway, will since he's constantly overthrowing people on those deep routes. So it's at least not an issue like Tua (and a third of the other starting NFL QBs, honestly), where even when the read is right, the arm just can't get there. And CW is cerebral AF. The anti-Justin. So how on planet earth is that completion rate going to stay super low after a year of experience?

Are you really asking the question "how is he going to not be better than he is?" because the answer is pretty obvious that some guys just do not take steps forward. I hope Caleb does, he certainly has a lot of the tools to do so, but so did Justin Fields, and Justin Fields didn't.

[fleet]

IK this is more of a gut feeling, instinct from me because the data doesn't bear out much indication that CW's scheduled for major improvement on those deep balls but I still think CW is anyway, will since he's constantly overthrowing people on those deep routes. So it's at least not an issue like Tua (and a third of the other starting NFL QBs, honestly), where even when the read is right, the arm just can't get there. And CW is cerebral AF. The anti-Justin. So how on planet earth is that completion rate going to stay super low after a year of experience?

Are you really asking the question "how is he going to not be better than he is?" because the answer is pretty obvious that some guys just do not take steps forward. I hope Caleb does, he certainly has a lot of the tools to do so, but so did Justin Fields, and Justin Fields didn't.

Spot on perspective imo. I don’t know if even the Bears are confident that Caleb can carry the team like one of those dudes. Otherwise maybe they wouldn’t feel like they need pro bowlish type talent at every position surrounding him. Do they feel like they need talent to lift Caleb, or do they feel like Caleb can lift talent? Evidence atm is suggesting the former. If it was the latter, perhaps they draft differently. Truth may be that nobody has a strong idea how Caleb turns out. It is fair to question if the Bears seem concerned about his upside more than they are supremely confident.

[Jeffster81]

According to Jeff Hughes, DJ Moore is on the hot seat.

“I think Ben has gone in there and been very hard on him”, Jeff said. “He told him, ‘This is what we expect out of you, and if you don’t deliver it, we have no problem moving on.”

The Luther Burden pick is important in a couple of ways. Although Burden is an interesting personality himself.

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/insider-reveals-bears-star-received-private-warning-from-ben-johnson/

Well at CBJ press conference when he was hired, he directly looked at CW, DJ, Kmet and I believe Rome and told them to "get comfortable with being uncomfortable." This does not come as a surprise. I think DJ will step up.

[fleet]

According to Jeff Hughes, DJ Moore is on the hot seat.

“I think Ben has gone in there and been very hard on him”, Jeff said. “He told him, ‘This is what we expect out of you, and if you don’t deliver it, we have no problem moving on.”

The Luther Burden pick is important in a couple of ways. Although Burden is an interesting personality himself.

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/insider-reveals-bears-star-received-private-warning-from-ben-johnson/

Well at CBJ press conference when he was hired, he directly looked at CW, DJ, Kmet and I believe Rome and told them to "get comfortable with being uncomfortable." This does not come as a surprise. I think DJ will step up.

Speaking of Kmet, the way he was making mistakes at times like in the Commanders game last year, it is curious that he was the first veteran guy getting chewed out in OTAs as well. Probably only a coincidence…

Conveniently, the Bears have acquired significant talent at these guys’ positions in the offseason just in case.

[Dresden]

IK this is more of a gut feeling, instinct from me because the data doesn't bear out much indication that CW's scheduled for major improvement on those deep balls but I still think CW is anyway, will since he's constantly overthrowing people on those deep routes. So it's at least not an issue like Tua (and a third of the other starting NFL QBs, honestly), where even when the read is right, the arm just can't get there. And CW is cerebral AF. The anti-Justin. So how on planet earth is that completion rate going to stay super low after a year of experience?

Are you really asking the question "how is he going to not be better than he is?" because the answer is pretty obvious that some guys just do not take steps forward. I hope Caleb does, he certainly has a lot of the tools to do so, but so did Justin Fields, and Justin Fields didn't.

Spot on perspective imo. I don’t know if even the Bears are confident that Caleb can carry the team like one of those dudes. Otherwise maybe they wouldn’t feel like they need pro bowlish type talent at every position surrounding him. Do they feel like they need talent to lift Caleb, or do they feel like Caleb can lift talent? Evidence atm is suggesting the former. If it was the latter, perhaps they draft differently. Truth may be that nobody has a strong idea how Caleb turns out. It is fair to question if the Bears seem concerned about his upside more than they are supremely confident.

I think that's a faulty assumption- that the Bears loading up on offense is a sign they don't trust Caleb. The offense has been a bottom 5 unit for the past 3-4 years. So why wouldn't they do everything possible to improve it, rather than "just enough" and hope that Caleb can do the rest. Poor read of the situation, IMO. I doubt any front office thinks "well, we have a great QB, so we'll skimp at WR, TE, O line, because he's so good he can carry us.

[Dresden]

According to Jeff Hughes, DJ Moore is on the hot seat.

“I think Ben has gone in there and been very hard on him”, Jeff said. “He told him, ‘This is what we expect out of you, and if you don’t deliver it, we have no problem moving on.”

The Luther Burden pick is important in a couple of ways. Although Burden is an interesting personality himself.

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/insider-reveals-bears-star-received-private-warning-from-ben-johnson/

Well at CBJ press conference when he was hired, he directly looked at CW, DJ, Kmet and I believe Rome and told them to "get comfortable with being uncomfortable." This does not come as a surprise. I think DJ will step up.

If Burden works out, it wouldn't surprise me at all if DJ was traded for salary reasons at some point. But from a productivity standpoint, I think DJ is still one of the best guys in the league with the ball in his hands at his position.

[molepharmer]

Inside the Bears draft room. First 10-11 min mostly about Loveland and the scouting process. Most interesting bit to me was how much they seem to rely on the probability percentages of a particular player being available with a specific pick. I assume those percentages come from all the simulations the Bears run prior to the draft.

Watch on YouTube

[fleet]

https://clutchpoints.com/nfl/chicago-bears/bears-news-2-improvements-chicagos-new-coaching-staff-needs-caleb-williams

“There were two areas where the coaches wanted improvement from Williams,” Breer wrote. “Both related to how he carried himself as the quarterback, based on what the 2024 season showed. One was body language. The other was presnap procedure.”

The Bears understand that Williams took a beating during the 2024 season. Williams took the most sacks of any quarterback thanks in part ot a poor offensive line. He also suffered through a directionless season where multiple coaches, including Matt Eberflus, were fired midseason.

Regardless, Chicago's new coaching staff did not like how slow Williams was to pull himself off the ground at times.

IIRC, Breer called the coaching concerns about ‘big picture leadership stuff’, something to that effect. Curious to know if any of the players had a problem with this. It folds into the reports about cleaning ip DJ Moore’s ‘issues’. I like that the coaching staff is tuned into the details of how winners carry themselves.

[panthermark]

I’d also say the reasons I’m hopeful for Caleb as a processor is he did spread the ball around well to different options and didn’t get hyper focused on one guy like Fields. He also did a decent job of feeding the hot hand so if someone was having a good game he got them the ball so these are things that I think of as almost good PG skills it isn’t just random he’s trying to dictate and manage the offense. The other was he did progress throughout the season against tougher competition his trajectory continued to improve even while the coaching was chaotic.

Then one thing I liked that is unrelated to processing is through all of those sacks he still stood in the pocket took hits and tried to deliver the ball. Maybe he shouldn’t have so much but he’s tough and is willing to put it on the line for the team so it’s a good thing to see out of a player. Especially when you have a WR walking off the field while it’s happening.

Are you talking about last season? I didn't see that at all.

I think he was often hyper focused on KA, and did a horrible job spreading the ball around or finding the hot hand.
Kmet had 3 games with zero targets, 3 games with one target, 2 games with two targets, and 3 games with three targets.

[TheJordanRule]

IK this is more of a gut feeling, instinct from me because the data doesn't bear out much indication that CW's scheduled for major improvement on those deep balls but I still think CW is anyway, will since he's constantly overthrowing people on those deep routes. So it's at least not an issue like Tua (and a third of the other starting NFL QBs, honestly), where even when the read is right, the arm just can't get there. And CW is cerebral AF. The anti-Justin. So how on planet earth is that completion rate going to stay super low after a year of experience?

Are you really asking the question "how is he going to not be better than he is?" because the answer is pretty obvious that some guys just do not take steps forward. I hope Caleb does, he certainly has a lot of the tools to do so, but so did Justin Fields, and Justin Fields didn't.

Spot on perspective imo. I don’t know if even the Bears are confident that Caleb can carry the team like one of those dudes. Otherwise maybe they wouldn’t feel like they need pro bowlish type talent at every position surrounding him. Do they feel like they need talent to lift Caleb, or do they feel like Caleb can lift talent? Evidence atm is suggesting the former. If it was the latter, perhaps they draft differently. Truth may be that nobody has a strong idea how Caleb turns out. It is fair to question if the Bears seem concerned about his upside more than they are supremely confident.

Shout out to the two of you, brothers. I enjoy your deep perspectives. My optimism on Caleb comes from his ability to read a defense. It's nothing like Justin's basic think about "either Option A or Option B" skillset. They both have canon arms but Caleb is 10x as willing to stand in the pocket, let a play materialize and then take what the defense gives them, which is frequently neither Option A or Option B. It gives me confidence when a QB can think like a QB instead of a running back constantly looking for daylight. And those bread and butter plays in the short to mid range are things that Justin never had in his bag consistently. Justin's inconsistency in those parts of the field were a huge part of the dysfunction. Right now, after a year of watching Caleb, I still think CW>>>JF. Don't you feel the same?

[biggestbullsfan]

Read on Twitter

[dougthonus]

Shout out to the two of you, brothers. I enjoy your deep perspectives. My optimism on Caleb comes from his ability to read a defense. It's nothing like Justin's basic think about "either Option A or Option B" skillset. They both have canon arms but Caleb is 10x as willing to stand in the pocket, let a play materialize and then take what the defense gives them, which is frequently neither Option A or Option B. It gives me confidence when a QB can think like a QB instead of a running back constantly looking for daylight. And those bread and butter plays in the short to mid range are things that Justin never had in his bag consistently. Justin's inconsistency in those parts of the field were a huge part of the dysfunction. Right now, after a year of watching Caleb, I still think CW>>>JF. Don't you feel the same?

I don't have strong thoughts on Caleb either way to be honest. I'm far from a QB whisperer and don't want to pretend I know so much about it, because I don't. My non-expert opinion watching the Bears was that he seemed to also hold on to the ball too long and struggled a ton with accuracy. Is that harder or easier to fix than Fields problem (which seemed to be more around making it through progressions and reading the defense), I don't know.

I loved Fields when we drafted him, and after watching him play in year one, I thought "he's really far away, but you got to give him three years". We did that and it didn't work. Watching Caleb, I also just went with the consensus and said he looks like a good draft pick, and after year one, I feel the same as with Fields. He's a long way away and you got to give him 3 years. Will he make improvements? I sure hope so, but nothing I saw in year one made me go "this is in the bag".