The Around The NBA Thread

[MrSparkle]

My 2c on the Heat, is they were really good last year. It wasn't a fluke, although PHI/MIL are much better today than last year's playoffs.

3 reasons for falling off the cliff:

1. Dragic had a late season resurgence to all-star form.

2. Their front-court depth chart was completely destroyed (understandably, for the long-shot FA superstar play), replaced with over-the-hill vet. min. types.

3. Herro turning from overachieving rookie steal to sophomore dud.

I will continue insisting that while your top 2 stars do set the tone and ceiling of your team, the 3-8 rotation and coaching is incredibly important. It was always the case (05 Smush/Kwame/Kobe), but today there is just even less room for roster error. Modern spacing and defensive schemes can exploit sub-par role-players and broken chemistry. That's why Lebron couldn't carry the Lakers to a playoff berth before the Davis trade, why Giannis looked like a shell of a star last August, and why Curry missed the playoffs.

You need (multi-position) defensive players who can make shots. Ariza was a great player, but at his current age, he shot 18% from the arc against the Bucks -- until today's game, where he actually shot well. On the other hand, he had 0 rebounds, 0 FTs, 0 blocks, 0 steals. Obviously not the guy he was a few years ago; incapable of covering Giannis, neither Middleton. Iguodala gave a valiant effort for a 37yo. These guys just weren't able to play well enough to allow Miami to get away with Duncan/Herro line-ups like last year (not to mention both of them lost a bit of edge, particularly Herro - major regression).

So did Jimmy and Bam decline? I don't think so. The line-up balance got screwed. IMO the Oladipo trade was a decent risk, but maybe they hoped too much for a guy whose injuries were piling on more than recovering. I still Miami making a FA/trade play, but hard for them to operate with Herro's sunk value.

I similarly think that LaVine/Vuc will look a whole lot different if a PG near Dragic's caliber and a vet two-way tweener like Crowder come along. Kind of preposterous writing them off cause they couldn't put it together with Coby and Pat learning through their youthful mistakes.

[TheStig]

We should monitor the Heat in the off-season. You don't get swept in the first round after being in the finals and return without any significant changes. Dragic may not have his option picked up...and if it is, he'll almost certainly be used as a trade chip. Same with Iggy.

That said, I really think we should keep an eye on what happens with Butler. There's a good chance that Shams' report of friction between he and the coaching staff/team was real and that's only going to be exacerbated by a sweep. It won't help things either if Jimmy's being a dick while playing meh. I think they'll likely try and make it work for one more year, but with Jimmy you never know.

If Jimmy is shopped, we expect that his trade value will be lower than it's ever been in part because he's older but more importantly because he's been traded so many times now. A deal around Coby or PWill and matching salaries could potentially be a competitive offer at that point.

there is zero chance that coby white and pat williams are the core of a deal for jimmy butler. not unless one or both of them blossoms first. and it would probably require jimmy to start to slip...which is why bulls management didn't want to gamble on maxing him out in the first place!

The last time he was traded, he was traded for Josh Richardson, Whiteside, and a 1st round pick. The time before that he was traded for Covington and Saric. His trade value is only going to keep getting worse, so I do believe that White/Williams would be a competitive base for a trade.

Pat Riley isn't a chump though. He's not in fire sale mode like the wolves were and he's being traded by a first time gm like Brand.

If anything, they're going to be the buyers. They have assets and cap space.

[CobyWhite0]

How is Miami supposed to be buyers?

They have 5 players under contract: Jimmy, Bam, Herro, Achiuwa, and Okpala. They could have $28 million in cap space and nothing else.

In order to keep Nunn and Robinson, cap holds take them down to $20 million in cap space.

They have no draft picks this year.
They only have Brooklyn's 1st-round pick next summer, no 2nd rounder
They have no draft picks in 2023.
They can't trade their 1st-round pick until 2025 (sound familiar)

The Cheatles left after the 2014 season - in the 7 seasons since then, they've missed the playoffs 3 years. Lost in the first round twice, the 2nd round once, and had last year's fluke Finals run. They haven't had a 50-win season.

Since the 2006 Heat won a title, they haven't had a single 50-win season outside of the Cheatles. And we now know that Riley didn't really have much to do with that, since Bron, Wade and Bosh had already decided to team up a few years earlier.

Though I guess he gets credit for having Wade, who did a great job recruiting other superstars (while DRose was busy saying "we don't need other superstars and I ain't recruiting, it's disrespectful to my teammates).

The plain and simple fact is that unless he had a superstar and max cap space for 2 more superstars, Riley hasn't put together a contender in 15 years. If anyone believes there's a superstar out there saying "wow, I can't wait to team up with Jimmy and Bam", I can only say that I strongly disagree. Because Jimmy and Bam are on a completely different planet than Bron and Wade.

[MrFortune3]

only in retrospect

It was obvious then. People ignored that Zach has improved every year of his career that he was healthy.

he sure as hell didn't improve like he has this season

and by the way, you, like many others here, keep making this statement that he has improved EVERY season...when he arguably didn't improve last season

He did improve last season, I have pointed out many times that the 3 pt shooting was overstated because he took 3 more shots to produce 1.8 more ppg.
Now the system was awful but Zach as a player improved last year and it carried over to this season.

tyler herro was a 20 year old who had just lit up the celtics in the ECF to help his team to the finals. while making under $4 mil and with 3 years left on his rookie contract. zach lavine was coming off yet another empty stats year where he watched the playoffs on television, making 19 mil w/ 2 years left on his contract. anyone preferring to have herro at that moment in time was not engaging in "hot takes." it was a cold take. ice cold

No, it was a ludicrous hot take. Just like when people were clamoring for Brandon Clarke and saying he was a better player cause of his PER numbers.
Zach improved his efficiency and became an elite scoring but he was already blossoming as a scorer when that nonsense was going around.
The contract and so called empty stats were brought up as a weird ass justification for a horrible hot take that never made any sense.

[MrFortune3]

I cant say I am surprised the Heat lost. Im more surprised how they were swept. That first game was neck and neck till that Middleton jumper. But after that it was a laugher.

I think its more an indication of how flukey the playoffs were for the Heat in the bubble. They really had no business making the finals last year. This season sort of proved it.

Not really flukey. The Heat gelled as a team and got hot from everywhere.
They were going up against a mostly fully healthy Bucks team with revenge on their mind and a lesser team than last season. Jimmy and Bam are straight, Duncan Robinson and Nunn are legit but Herro has lost a bunch, Dragic is lesser and they have to find a way to get better. A healthy Oladipo probably changes the series but the Heat overall have to get better.

I dont think they overall played worse. The Heat best players statwise were actually better this season than last. Even Herro.

Duncan Robinson is actually the biggest dropoff. He went from a being a truly elite best of the league shooter to just a really good shooter. Teams I think figured him out a bit and he didnt truly adjust. Herro is in the same boat as Coby in my opinion. They both actually did improve but expectations make things look worse.

They were a 5th seed last year and were a 6th this year. Sounds about right. But the fluke part is them going from average to elite in the bubble.

So expectations preceded them. People were talking about watchi out for the Heat based on last season. But everything this year said that they weren't all that good. Just solid.

If you're a team that goes on a playoff run or even on the cusp of one. You have to improve your roster and have player development occur to become a better team than the previous year.
The Heat for the most part remained the same and the development didn't come as sharply as needed.
Jimmy and Bam are clearly your 2 centerpieces but Riley builds around them further will be the key.

[dice]

It was obvious then. People ignored that Zach has improved every year of his career that he was healthy.

he sure as hell didn't improve like he has this season

and by the way, you, like many others here, keep making this statement that he has improved EVERY season...when he arguably didn't improve last season

He did improve last season, I have pointed out many times that the 3 pt shooting was overstated because he took 3 more shots to produce 1.8 more ppg.
Now the system was awful but Zach as a player improved last year and it carried over to this season.

tyler herro was a 20 year old who had just lit up the celtics in the ECF to help his team to the finals. while making under $4 mil and with 3 years left on his rookie contract. zach lavine was coming off yet another empty stats year where he watched the playoffs on television, making 19 mil w/ 2 years left on his contract. anyone preferring to have herro at that moment in time was not engaging in "hot takes." it was a cold take. ice cold

No, it was a ludicrous hot take. Just like when people were clamoring for Brandon Clarke and saying he was a better player cause of his PER numbers.
Zach improved his efficiency and became an elite scoring but he was already blossoming as a scorer when that nonsense was going around.
The contract and so called empty stats were brought up as a weird ass justification for a horrible hot take that never made any sense.

per 36:

2019 25/5/5 on 57% TS
2020 26/5/4 on 57% TS

he did average half a steal more in 2020, but if that's improvement, you're really splitting hairs

[TheStig]

How is Miami supposed to be buyers?

They have 5 players under contract: Jimmy, Bam, Herro, Achiuwa, and Okpala. They could have $28 million in cap space and nothing else.

In order to keep Nunn and Robinson, cap holds take them down to $20 million in cap space.

They have no draft picks this year.
They only have Brooklyn's 1st-round pick next summer, no 2nd rounder
They have no draft picks in 2023.
They can't trade their 1st-round pick until 2025 (sound familiar)

The Cheatles left after the 2014 season - in the 7 seasons since then, they've missed the playoffs 3 years. Lost in the first round twice, the 2nd round once, and had last year's fluke Finals run. They haven't had a 50-win season.

Since the 2006 Heat won a title, they haven't had a single 50-win season outside of the Cheatles. And we now know that Riley didn't really have much to do with that, since Bron, Wade and Bosh had already decided to team up a few years earlier.

Though I guess he gets credit for having Wade, who did a great job recruiting other superstars (while DRose was busy saying "we don't need other superstars and I ain't recruiting, it's disrespectful to my teammates).

The plain and simple fact is that unless he had a superstar and max cap space for 2 more superstars, Riley hasn't put together a contender in 15 years. If anyone believes there's a superstar out there saying "wow, I can't wait to team up with Jimmy and Bam", I can only say that I strongly disagree. Because Jimmy and Bam are on a completely different planet than Bron and Wade.

You do know having a lot of cap space, a young player who was in high demand last year, picks and other young players is a good start to a package. You don't have to trade 4 1sts to get a deal done. There is nothing preventing them from moving more guys and signing Kawhi if that becomes a possibility or trading for someone who hits the market.

So since Bron left and Bosh was a albatross contract because of health, you're disappointed that they missed the playoffs a couple times? How's Toronto doing since Kawhi left? That's one guy compared to two stars. How is SA doing since Duncan retired? GSW has missed the playoffs in back to back years since KD left. But we're supposed to be disappointed that they made the finals last year and playoffs this year? It's kind of a silly standard. They've out preformed like 85% of the league.

Riley has had 4 contenders in his time as exec. Hardaway/Morning, Wade/Shaq, Big 3 and now Jimmy/Bam. What other exec outside of Jerry West has done that? Danny Ainge has been in Boston almost as long and barely eeked out a title.

I think you're really down playing Riley. He's gonna be in a position to make a big swing this summer. If there is a guy who hits the trade market or Kawhi wants out, he'll be up there on the places to go. He can do so something like cap space, Herro and 2 picks for Beal.

[Chewie]

Not sure why the Wizards haven't resorted to a hack a Simmons strategy. Dude can't buy a FT.

[erlim]

Gafford looking strong.

[Andi Obst]

Not sure why the Wizards haven't resorted to a hack a Simmons strategy. Dude can't buy a FT.

Issue with that is that the Wizards halfcourt offense is too bad (and the Sixers halfcourt defense is too good) for them to intentionally slow the game down like that. Only chance for the Wiz to even win a game is probably to force a lot of turnovers, get running in transition and create open shots at the rim/from 3. That worked pretty well in the first half of game 1 when the Sixers looked a little rusty/sloppy. But then again, the Wiz were never going to make this a competitive series. It's a typical 1 vs 8 matchup, the Sixers are that much better.

It will be interesting to see how much of an issue Simmons will be on offense when the real games start for them, though.

[johnnyvann840]

Oh no... D Rose just walked off the court limping and went straight to the locker room. If he is out the Knicks are done. This is some fun basketball to watch though. These two teams just going at it hard. And I like that the refs are letting the game get physical.

[johnnyvann840]

Trae Young is ridiculously good. Kid is a superstar, no question. Steph Curry good. His passing game is unreal and it seems like he never misses a shot. Just one hell of a player.

[Andi Obst]

Trae Young is ridiculously good. Kid is a superstar, no question. Steph Curry good. His passing game is unreal and it seems like he never misses a shot. Just one hell of a player.

He’d have to become a way better shooter to be Curry good. This season hasn’t been promising in that regard. But he’s obviously still an insane talent.

[GetBuLLish]

I feel like in all the NY Knicks games I've watched, RJ Barrett has gone about 3/45 in three pointers. It's just an automatic brick every time I see him shoot a three.

[johnnyvann840]

I feel like in all the NY Knicks games I've watched, RJ Barrett has gone about 3/45 in three pointers. It's just an automatic brick every time I see him shoot a three.

He's been in a slump but he shot over .400 this season on high volume. the Knicks have gone cold at the wrong time. Randle, RJ especially. Neither of them have been able to buy a 3 pointer in this series. Randle seems like he might be breaking out of it today. I sure hope so. I really want to see the Knicks win this series. Amazing that they are even staying in these games with the poor play of Randle and Barrett. D Rose has single handedly kept the Knicks in this series.

[johnnyvann840]

... and it's been the opposite for Trae. I didn't realize he shot only .343 from 3 pt on the season. It seems like he can't miss in this series. The Hawks are on fire from deep right now. Bogs, Heurter, Trae, Gallo.. they all seem like they can't miss right now. If the Knicks D wasn't so good, they would be getting blown out of this game and series.

[Andi Obst]

It’s very obvious it’s Randle‘s first playoffs. Defense against him is more prepared than in the regular season, his shot isn’t falling the way it used to and he doesn’t have any counter-moves yet. Needs to find his way to the rim more.

Trae looks like he’s been doing this his whole career.

[CobyWhite0]

... and it's been the opposite for Trae. I didn't realize he shot only .343 from 3 pt on the season. It seems like he can't miss in this series. The Hawks are on fire from deep right now. Bogs, Heurter, Trae, Gallo.. they all seem like they can't miss right now. If the Knicks D wasn't so good, they would be getting blown out of this game and series.

The Hawks are only shooting 34.5% from 3 today, and they're up 12 as I type this. They're at 37.3% for the series, they only shot the 3 well once (in Game 3). Games 1 and 2 they shot 35.3% and 27.3%.

The Knicks simply aren't that good - just like usual, Thibs' teams play so hard in the regular season that they don't have a playoff gear. They can't turn it up a notch, they've been playing full-notch all season.

EDIT: In fact, I said the exact same thing earlier in this thread, right before the regular season ended:

viewtopic.php?p=90840896#p90840896

I could be wrong, but I expect the Knicks are going to have the same problem in the playoffs that the Bulls had when Thibs was coaching.

Thibs gets his teams to play 110% for most regular season games, but the problem is that they can't turn it up a notch in the playoffs, because they've been going full-notch all season.

Tomorrow's home game against the Celtics will probably decide their playoff fate. If they win (against a C's team that literally has nothing to play for), they wrap up the #4 seed. ATL gets HOU tomorrow, and a win gives them the #5 seed - that's the best the Knicks can hope for, they are 3-0 vs ATL this season, and the Hawks' 3 leading scorers (Trae, Collins and Bogdanovic) have a combined zero games of playoff experience.

[ImSlower]

You make a good point about Thibs' teams not kicking it up in the playoffs. Other than Old Man Rose playing his heart out, the Knicks look atrocious. I'm surprised it's only a 14 point game with the 3rd quarter about to wrap up. It feels more like 30 to me.

The Hawks were definitely the superior team coming out of the gate, but I didn't expect Randle to absolutely fall apart like this. I was shocked when he said the noise in MSG affected him. Dude, that's your damn home crowd! What the hell! I can see it now that the hilarious "over-rated" chants are echoing through State Farm Arena, I guess. He has made so many errors this game, I'm just baffled.

The Hawks might blow this one out by 25 soon.

[Andi Obst]

Yeah, the Knicks are not beating that team 3 times in a row. The Hawks are significantly better. It’s over.