Bears 10.0: GM and coach watch before the draft

[fleet]

The analysis cannot end with the quarterbacks. The Commanders have who the Bears should have hired at head coach, and offensive coordinator. But there’s also no reason Caleb shouldn’t have completed a lot of passes he flat missed on. Can’t blame the Bears for those.

The Bears had a lot of problems this past year, and I think Washington was set up better for success. That said, as you point out, Caleb Williams play was one of those problems. There was a reason DJ Moore was super pissed all year about his usage and how many times Caleb missed him on open deep balls.

Based on what we've seen from Daniels, he would have done far better with the Bears than Caleb. Granted, as you note you can't really easily compare apples/oranges situations, but Williams was bad even considering his situation.

It doesn't mean that's the end of Williams and his career sucks now, but it definitely should be a big concern right away.

I don’t know what Daniels looked like in college too much, I think, similar (LSU), but last night, his balance and footwork was something that Caleb would benefit a lot from being able to replicate. Caleb is either not well coached, or not as receptive to coaching as he needs to be. Caleb desperately needs a coach that has his full attention. Which is why it’s so important to include him on this decision.

[panthermark]

It is really more an indictment of Poles and this org. Wrong decision after wrong decision. And even when the decision isn't flat out wrong, they fail to lay the ground work to make that right decision successful.

Hopefully they don't blow this off-season because I just watched Pro-Bowl DT Jalen Carter get a sack in the play-offs.

[dice]

I don’t believe there was total consensus on Caleb by the time of the draft. Daniels had a ton of momentum, and quite a number of NFL people in media were calling for Daniels over Caleb. Knowing Poles, he just locked onto Caleb and dismissed any doubt. He didn’t even open his mind to it, never brought Daniels into the building. Other GMs in his position may have done things differently.

No, there was most certainly a consensus. The only person that had Daniels over Williams was Dan Olorvsky (sp). Beyond that, everyone else had Williams over Daniels, which was why it was a foregone conclusion come draft night. There was no question about who the top pick was going to be or who the perceived top prospect was.

Certainly there was no doubt about what the Bears were doing. Daniels never got a team visit. And Orlovsky wasn’t the only one.

85-90% in the final week had caleb. and most of those that went against the grain favored maye

[dice]

This is absurd. Does anyone seriously think that if the Bears took Daniels, and Washington took CW, that the positions would be reversed, or even that much different? The Bears would have still been terrible and people would be questioning whether Daniels is Fields 2.0

70.5 JD
47 caleb

that was QBR. my instinct if draft positions were reversed is something like:

61 JD
56 caleb

The analysis cannot end with the quarterbacks. The Commanders have who the Bears should have hired at head coach, and offensive coordinator. But there’s also no reason Caleb shouldn’t have completed a lot of passes he flat missed on. Can’t blame the Bears for those

if the QB #s would have been significantly different, it obviously is due to personnel. almost entirely coaching IMO

[patryk7754]

Shoulda signed Barkley

[dice]

To that point, if roles were reversed, and the Bears took the huge gamble of passing on Caleb and took Daniels instead, what are the chances Daniels would have had the same sort of season here?

I don’t envision a scenario where Daniels would have been much more successful than Williams was. As much as I love what I’ve seen from Daniel’s, I seldom see him do anything that Williams can’t do. He just did it more consistently and a decent chunk of the reason (in my opinion) was due to the fact that Daniels simply had a better infrastructure to operate within.

Tough to say.
Daniels showed major things that CW did not.

His deep ball WAY WAY WAY better.
He was a much bigger threat with his legs. (891 yards, 6 TD's, 55 first downs....that is about what Swift did this season. Slighly more yards, same TD's, less first downs).

---
The funny thing is the season JD had is what I thought/hoped Justin Fields would become.

speaking of justin...at least caleb's rookie year was better. with even worse coaching

[panthermark]

I don't JD would have been as good here as he was in Washington because of the OC, but I think he would have been better than CW was here because of his legs and deep ball accuracy.

I also don't think CW would have been as good as JD was if he would have went to the Commanders. The lack of deep ball production is really bad, but he might have better than he was here because of the OC.

Sort by the 40 yard and 50 yard deep ball numbers, along with air yards per attempt. CW was brutal this season. That is a concern given the WR's he had.
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php

[fleet]

No, there was most certainly a consensus. The only person that had Daniels over Williams was Dan Olorvsky (sp). Beyond that, everyone else had Williams over Daniels, which was why it was a foregone conclusion come draft night. There was no question about who the top pick was going to be or who the perceived top prospect was.

Certainly there was no doubt about what the Bears were doing. Daniels never got a team visit. And Orlovsky wasn’t the only one.

85-90% in the final week had caleb. and most of those that went against the grain favored maye

Maye, another guy the Bears were close minded on, and didn’t bring in iirc. Pro days alone is unfinished homework. There was a softening if anything in the conversation on Caleb #1. The Bears weren’t trading down for Daniels or Maye. They was in love. It would not have been a crazy idea to do all your homework, and consider all the options for Ryan Poles. The way they went about this was nothing short of incomplete.

[patryk7754]

It is really more an indictment of Poles and this org. Wrong decision after wrong decision. And even when the decision isn't flat out wrong, they fail to lay the ground work to make that right decision successful.

Hopefully they don't blow this off-season because I just watched Pro-Bowl DT Jalen Carter get a sack in the play-offs.

There are many misses you that poles has had but Carter isn’t one. There were legit character concerns about him. And he’s shown why those concerns exist during his time with the eagles on more than one occasion. The reason the eagles taking him made so much season was because of the great veteran leadership and how many of his actual friends from Georgia were already on the team. He wasn’t getting either of those here or anywhere else.

Would he be a murderer if we picked him? No. But there’s a good chance his outbursts would have been more significant. Passing on him wasn’t a mistake.

[panthermark]

It is really more an indictment of Poles and this org. Wrong decision after wrong decision. And even when the decision isn't flat out wrong, they fail to lay the ground work to make that right decision successful.

Hopefully they don't blow this off-season because I just watched Pro-Bowl DT Jalen Carter get a sack in the play-offs.

There are many misses you that poles has had but Carter isn’t one. There were legit character concerns about him. And he’s shown why those concerns exist during his time with the eagles on more than one occasion. The reason the eagles taking him made so much season was because of the great veteran leadership and how many of his actual friends from Georgia were already on the team. He wasn’t getting either of those here or anywhere else.

Would he be a murderer if we picked him? No. But there’s a good chance his outbursts would have been more significant. Passing on him wasn’t a mistake.

No!
Poles is the one who "built" this team. Saying the locker room could not handle him is a reflection on the architect of said locker room.

In the end, the team still imploded. Maybe he should have drafted Carter instead of Stevenson?

[fleet]

It is really more an indictment of Poles and this org. Wrong decision after wrong decision. And even when the decision isn't flat out wrong, they fail to lay the ground work to make that right decision successful.

Hopefully they don't blow this off-season because I just watched Pro-Bowl DT Jalen Carter get a sack in the play-offs.

There are many misses you that poles has had but Carter isn’t one. There were legit character concerns about him. And he’s shown why those concerns exist during his time with the eagles on more than one occasion. The reason the eagles taking him made so much season was because of the great veteran leadership and how many of his actual friends from Georgia were already on the team. He wasn’t getting either of those here or anywhere else.

Would he be a murderer if we picked him? No. But there’s a good chance his outbursts would have been more significant. Passing on him wasn’t a mistake.

Of all the excuses on passing on Carter, the ‘lack of team support’ thing is most baffling. Oh, we didn’t build a good team, or we don’t think we can build one, so Carter is out? Talk about a self fulfilling prophecy. But at least they weren’t wrong on their self scouting.

The guy dropped out of the sky into your lap at #9. It would have been perfectly fine to draft him there. More than fine.

[dice]

To be fair guys like Daniels don't have incompetent coaches and USFL level Ol play.

Whose to say that this might be the best Daniels plays in his career?

I'm glad Daniels is playing pretty well for Commanders but do want too what Caleb can do with a coach who knows what he is doing.

To that point, if roles were reversed, and the Bears took the huge gamble of passing on Caleb and took Daniels instead, what are the chances Daniels would have had the same sort of season here?

Offensive Line was a huge issue. Washington invested in theirs. Bears didn't. He likely would found similar success or worse than Caleb.

this is not really true. the only significant addition for WAS was a solid center in biadasz. sacks surrendered:

2023 WAS 65 bears 50
2024 bears 67 WAS 50

2024 PFF pass block grade: shelton 68, biadasz 65

so what was the major difference in the flip-flop of sack totals? hint: it had to do w/ other roster changes

[fleet]

It is really more an indictment of Poles and this org. Wrong decision after wrong decision. And even when the decision isn't flat out wrong, they fail to lay the ground work to make that right decision successful.

Hopefully they don't blow this off-season because I just watched Pro-Bowl DT Jalen Carter get a sack in the play-offs.

There are many misses you that poles has had but Carter isn’t one. There were legit character concerns about him. And he’s shown why those concerns exist during his time with the eagles on more than one occasion. The reason the eagles taking him made so much season was because of the great veteran leadership and how many of his actual friends from Georgia were already on the team. He wasn’t getting either of those here or anywhere else.

Would he be a murderer if we picked him? No. But there’s a good chance his outbursts would have been more significant. Passing on him wasn’t a mistake.

Of all the excuses on passing on Carter, the ‘lack of team support’ thing is most baffling. Oh, we didn’t build a good team, or we don’t think we can build one, so Carter is out? Talk about a self fulfilling prophecy. But at least they weren’t wrong on their self scouting.

The guy dropped out of the sky into your lap at #9. It would have been perfectly fine to draft him there. More than fine.

To add, Ryan Poles has been effusive this past year on his praise for the Bears team character and culture. So, something isn’t right here on the Carter of it all.

[dice]

It is really more an indictment of Poles and this org. Wrong decision after wrong decision. And even when the decision isn't flat out wrong, they fail to lay the ground work to make that right decision successful.

Hopefully they don't blow this off-season because I just watched Pro-Bowl DT Jalen Carter get a sack in the play-offs.

There are many misses you that poles has had but Carter isn’t one. There were legit character concerns about him. And he’s shown why those concerns exist during his time with the eagles on more than one occasion. The reason the eagles taking him made so much season was because of the great veteran leadership and how many of his actual friends from Georgia were already on the team. He wasn’t getting either of those here or anywhere else.

Would he be a murderer if we picked him? No. But there’s a good chance his outbursts would have been more significant. Passing on him wasn’t a mistake.

Of all the excuses on passing on Carter, the ‘lack of team support’ thing is most baffling. Oh, we didn’t build a good team, or we don’t think we can build one, so Carter is out? Talk about a self fulfilling prophecy. But at least they weren’t wrong on their self scouting.

The guy dropped out of the sky into your lap at #9. It would have been perfectly fine to draft him there. More than fine.

i don't think anybody wouldn't have understood taking him there. but it's also perfectly understandable that they didn't. we got a solid OT instead, which is substantially more important. along w/ dexter, who is no slouch. even w/ carter balling out and keeping his nose out of trouble i'd argue that the bears won the trade. and which is more likely going forward: carter not maintaining for whatever reason or our two guys declining?

dexter played comparably to carter this season!

[fleet]

I think we did it for the punter

[Almost Retired]

Shoulda signed Barkley

Barkley would have had a disappointing season with the Bears due to our O-Line and Waldron. We don't need a RB as good as Barkley. What we need is the Eagle's Offensive Line. Mailata is better than any O-Lineman we've had in decades. And Philly plucked him out of Australian Rugby in the 7th round. He had never played American Football before. But at 6'8", 365 ponds, less than 20% body fat and able to run the 40 in 5.1 seconds they took a shot. Every single player on the Eagle's O-Line is better at their position than ours.

If we had an O-Line I'd be willing to pick up a player like Jeanty with our First Rounder. But it would be a wasted pick. We have got to vastly improve our O-Line through the Draft and Free Agency in this offseason. And we have to add a player on defense that can get after QBs with regularity. The teams in these playoffs almost all have great O-Line and D-Line. We have neither.

[Dresden]

I don't JD would have been as good here as he was in Washington because of the OC, but I think he would have been better than CW was here because of his legs and deep ball accuracy.

I also don't think CW would have been as good as JD was if he would have went to the Commanders. The lack of deep ball production is really bad, but he might have better than he was here because of the OC.

Sort by the 40 yard and 50 yard deep ball numbers, along with air yards per attempt. CW was brutal this season. That is a concern given the WR's he had.
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php

I think Caleb will be fine throwing deep. It didn't seem like he had many attempts this year, and often they weren't serious attempts- it looked like he overthrew on purpose a lot, often because he was being pressured. Give him time to throw, and he can do it.

[dice]

It is really more an indictment of Poles and this org. Wrong decision after wrong decision. And even when the decision isn't flat out wrong, they fail to lay the ground work to make that right decision successful.

Hopefully they don't blow this off-season because I just watched Pro-Bowl DT Jalen Carter get a sack in the play-offs.

There are many misses you that poles has had but Carter isn’t one. There were legit character concerns about him. And he’s shown why those concerns exist during his time with the eagles on more than one occasion. The reason the eagles taking him made so much season was because of the great veteran leadership and how many of his actual friends from Georgia were already on the team. He wasn’t getting either of those here or anywhere else.

Would he be a murderer if we picked him? No. But there’s a good chance his outbursts would have been more significant. Passing on him wasn’t a mistake.

No!
Poles is the one who "built" this team. Saying the locker room could not handle him is a reflection on the architect of said locker room

um...poles had been here exactly 1 year at the time of that draft. they were coming off the tank year. the rebuild was just beginning. poles had been the architect of jack squat. jalen carter would have been the first new hire after eberflus!

[panthermark]

There are many misses you that poles has had but Carter isn’t one. There were legit character concerns about him. And he’s shown why those concerns exist during his time with the eagles on more than one occasion. The reason the eagles taking him made so much season was because of the great veteran leadership and how many of his actual friends from Georgia were already on the team. He wasn’t getting either of those here or anywhere else.

Would he be a murderer if we picked him? No. But there’s a good chance his outbursts would have been more significant. Passing on him wasn’t a mistake.

Of all the excuses on passing on Carter, the ‘lack of team support’ thing is most baffling. Oh, we didn’t build a good team, or we don’t think we can build one, so Carter is out? Talk about a self fulfilling prophecy. But at least they weren’t wrong on their self scouting.

The guy dropped out of the sky into your lap at #9. It would have been perfectly fine to draft him there. More than fine.

i don't think anybody wouldn't have understood taking him there. but it's also perfectly understandable that they didn't. we got a solid OT instead, which is substantially more important. along w/ dexter, who is no slouch. even w/ carter balling out and keeping his nose out of trouble i'd argue that the bears won the trade. and which is more likely going forward: carter not maintaining for whatever reason or our two guys declining?

That ignores who you would have taken with the 2nd round pick.
Maybe they go OL with the 2nd round pick.
Personally, I wanted the guy that went one pick after Stevenson. That is actually who I thought we were going to take (that is part of my bias against Stevenson).

For all we know, they still take Dexter, but don't take Pickens.

Funny to look at now, but JMS, O'Cyrus and Juice all went right after Stevenson, but before Zach.

[Dresden]

Shoulda signed Barkley

Barkley would have had a disappointing season with the Bears due to our O-Line and Waldron. We don't need a RB as good as Barkley. What we need is the Eagle's Offensive Line. Mailata is better than any O-Lineman we've had in decades. And Philly plucked him out of Australian Rugby in the 7th round. He had never played American Football before. But at 6'8", 365 ponds, less than 20% body fat and able to run the 40 in 5.1 seconds they took a shot. Every single player on the Eagle's O-Line is better at their position than ours.

If we had an O-Line I'd be willing to pick up a player like Jeanty with our First Rounder. But it would be a wasted pick. We have got to vastly improve our O-Line through the Draft and Free Agency in this offseason. And we have to add a player on defense that can get after QBs with regularity. The teams in these playoffs almost all have great O-Line and D-Line. We have neither.

I agree. We have to put every resource we have into fixing both lines. Our top 3 picks better all go to one of the lines or the other, and we better spend some of that cap money on them too.