Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[kodo]

That's what I'm saying, both players and teams know this.

Nobody is going to get their feelings hurt because they didn't get what they wanted immediately.

Respectfully Dez, this is really naive. It just goes against human nature. Have you ever felt underpaid or disrespected in a job? If you did, you hopefully didn't cut off your nose to spite your face. You took the best deal you could get and immediately started plotting how and when you could get out of there.

Just hope their is new delusion from either side…

Giddey thinking he’s worth the max.

AK thinking he’s worth 20M max.

Giddey said before FA started he wanted $30M and we got a mid FA update that they were thought he was worth at least Suggs who got $30M, so I don't think his agent is thinking close to max. Although he's played better than Scottie Barnes, who did get max.

[Dan Z]

Number 2 makes no sense, every player knows that negotiations are about getting the best possible deal and that's true for team and player.

It's a business. If Giddey doesn't understand that then that's on him.

In business, when I didn't like my compensation package, or the way I was treated by those who paid me, I got the hell out. That was indeed on me. And I never regretted it.

If he feels disrespected Giddey can leave too, but I don't think what the Bulls are doing (based on reports) is disrespecting him.

Also, the Bulls are a good situation for him. They traded for Giddey when he had a down year (plus the off court stuff) and then traded LaVine to let him run the team. Next year he can build on that.

If he'd rather go somewhere else then so be it.

[dougthonus]

In a Redditt poll of about 500 posters, 402 put his value over 24 million. 254 were over 26 million. 144 were over 28 million.

The AI response to how much the Bulls should pay Giddey (I don't use AI as a source normally but it does a reasonable job of summarizing what it sees from multiple sites on the internet):

"He is reportedly seeking a contract extension in the range of $30 million annually. This would be similar to the contract Jalen Suggs signed with the Orlando Magic.
Some sources suggest he might land a deal closer to $25 million per year.
His agents reportedly believe he's seeking a contract worth roughly $30 million in average annual value.
Based on his performance, some believe his talent merits a contract of $25-27 million per season for four years.
One analyst's formula even projected his annual value at $34 million, although this was noted as potentially overinflated due to his age and rebounding skills."

When someone says they want 30, and the consensus is they will get closer to 25, that infers somewhere between 25-30 mil. All to say that your idea that most agree with you that 30 million is dramatically more than he is worth isn't true.

FWIW, the comment about him believing Giddey is worth dramatically more than everyone else was based on a comment he made that if push came to shove, he would match an offer of a max contract to Giddey today because he thinks Giddey is worth that deal. I believe thinking Giddey is worth a max contract is dramatically more than the majority of people.

We're clearly not going to give him a max contract, but he believes the risk of having to pay him over 40M next year is very high, and believes at a fundamental deal that 30M is a value contract for Giddey based on his willingness to match even a max deal. I think those estimates are what is different than the majority opinion.

[League Circles]

Kuminga turned down $150M/5 and Brandon Ingram turned down $160M/4, no idea on the guarantees / incentives on either.
Even though Brandon bet on himself and "lost" he didn't lose any annual salary, he's still getting $40M per year just 3 years vs 4.

I don't rate either as being even close to what Giddey did post trade deadline, but I guess that's up to opinion.

I'm unaware, when did these guys turn down these deals? I'm saying relative to playing on the QO, in real time. Like what's the most a guy has ever turned down to play on the QO?

Both turned these down at the extension deadline.

I'm sorry I'm not entirely clear when that was for those guys. If it wasn't simultaneously with being on the open market and not getting offers and having to decide between the QO and the team's offer, I don't think there is much of a comparison with Giddey.

Truth is, a guy like Giddey is a serious injury away from losing many tens of millions of dollars. Only proven stars really would get a big contract coming straight off of a serious injury. So if we offer Giddey like 130 million or something, and his alternative is like 11 mil or whatever, I think he'll take it.

[League Circles]

The question with Giddey isn't really what is he worth. If he's good enough to be the full time starting point(3) on a competitive NBA team, he's probably worth like 35 mil+ per year. If he's not good enough to be that guy long term, he's an MLE caliber guy, cause he's either not going to start, or he's going to start while his team constantly looks for an upgrade.

So IMO the equation is really something like a compromise between say an 80% likelihood that he's worth 35+ mil AAV, and a 20% likelihood that he's an MLE guy. Whatever that math works out to should theoretically be what he's paid IMO. That's how I'd think of it as the FO.

[dougthonus]

I don't get someone like Kuminga turning down $150m. At this point, your career could go either way. Get the lifetime generational wealth. You'd be like 27 at the end of the deal. Plenty of time to get another huge contract.

I think for Kuminga, he thought he broke out in year 3 and had tons of upwards potential and would be a max guy. Then in year 4, he regressed a bit, and I don't think the realized how much of that 5/150 was based on continuing an upwards trajectory and for potential that may not hit. Now it looks way more likely that potential won't hit, and his value probably is closer to 5/100-125.

[Stratmaster]

It's a business. If Giddey doesn't understand that then that's on him.

In business, when I didn't like my compensation package, or the way I was treated by those who paid me, I got the hell out. That was indeed on me. And I never regretted it.

If he feels disrespected Giddey can leave too, but I don't think what the Bulls are doing (based on reports) is disrespecting him.

Also, the Bulls are a good situation for him. They traded for Giddey when he had a down year (plus the off court stuff) and then traded LaVine to let him run the team. Next year he can build on that.

If he'd rather go somewhere else then so be it.

If you think you are worth 90k a year, and it is backed up by the salaries of everyone else with your credentials who does your job, and a prospective employer offers you 66k a year, you don't feel that is disrespect from the employer? Sure.

He is in such a great spot, he can build on that this season, and is so certain to improve his value. You just made a case for exactly why he would not want to sign a long-term low-ball contract. If they only want to pay 22 mil and I am Giddey, I say sure. I'll take a 2 year deal with a player option in the 2nd season. If you can't offer a player option on that short of a deal... sure...I'll take a 1 year 22 mil deal and we can try this again next off-season.

As far as your last sentence, it is obvious you don't value his skills much. It is certainly subjective as are all opinions. I think your perceived value is lower than most.

[Dan Z]

That's an absolute lie. Bend over and give in vs offering maybe 40% of what the client is looking for is so far from the same thing, it's ridiculous.

You have been in an utter panic since FA started because we have not given Giddey 30M already, which is 100% of what he is asking for.

40% of 30M is 12M. The quote is that KC thinks we're not quite at 25M which means we're likely between 75%-80% of what he is asking for, and that seems quite normal.

I specifically pointed out percentages and margins of difference for exactly that reason. I'm not even saying we should offer him $30 mill right now, lmao!!! Like you keep exaggerating what I'm saying.

All your math is based on your opinion one side is being more reasonable than the other, because you have said you would give Giddey the max if necessary, so your basis points for all your math is based on a premise that no one else in the league except you believes about Giddey's worth.

You want to make fun of my negotiating, you tell me in your experience how many contracts go thru when the parties are 40%-50% different in value assessment? How many houses are listed at $300k, and the seller is ok with taking $160k?

I mean literally do some math, because that's not even close to what is happening, but if someone puts their house on the market for 300k and literally no one in the world but one person can pay over 150k, then the odds of that person getting 300k are pretty low.

I'm going to make this statement very clear. Try to twist it if you can. I don't know what the Bulls value Giddey at. If the Bulls are willing to match up to $30 mill, then IMO they believe he's worth $30 mill. I think it's disingenuous and bad business to start at $22 mill if you believe he's worth $30 mill. I believe heartily in saving money, all my cars I bought at auction and my home in a short sale. I'm a deal hunter. Let's say I hadn't ever negotiated a damn thing. in my personal opinion, I believe starting that far apart from what you believe e a player's true value is bad business.

In a world where you had the exact extremes both sides would take (ie most Bulls would pay and least Giddey would take), the odds are those ranges overlap at more than one exact point. They might overlap by 5M dollars. Why should one side meet the other at the absolute maximum of their acceptable range rather than in the middle of both parties acceptable ranges?

Imagine this. Giddey comes in asking for $35 mill. It's actually not that unreasonable, and may be what happened who knows? The team thinks he's worth $30 mill. Do they still start at $22 mill? Probably not. They start at $25 mill to get to $30 mill, which they feel is fair market value.

Every argument you have made could be reversed in favor of the other side and be similarly valid, because the core piece of your argument is really not about negotiation at all but your underlying belief that Giddey is worth dramatically more than most people.

In a Redditt poll of about 500 posters, 402 put his value over 24 million. 254 were over 26 million. 144 were over 28 million.

The AI response to how much the Bulls should pay Giddey (I don't use AI as a source normally but it does a reasonable job of summarizing what it sees from multiple sites on the internet):

"He is reportedly seeking a contract extension in the range of $30 million annually. This would be similar to the contract Jalen Suggs signed with the Orlando Magic.
Some sources suggest he might land a deal closer to $25 million per year.
His agents reportedly believe he's seeking a contract worth roughly $30 million in average annual value.
Based on his performance, some believe his talent merits a contract of $25-27 million per season for four years.
One analyst's formula even projected his annual value at $34 million, although this was noted as potentially overinflated due to his age and rebounding skills."

When someone says they want 30, and the consensus is they will get closer to 25, that infers somewhere between 25-30 mil. All to say that your idea that most agree with you that 30 million is dramatically more than he is worth isn't true.

The latest update from KC is that the two sides are talking again, Billy Donovan has even sat down and talked with Giddey. Good signs. However, the coach having to sit him down and talk to him hints that the relationship with the front office has become contentious. Not a good sign.

I expect he will sign for AAV of 26 mil, and as you have stated a couple times, if the Bulls are smart they will front load it as much as possible.

Giddey talking to his coach doesn't necessarily mean that negotiations have become contentious.

[Infinity2152]

In a Redditt poll of about 500 posters, 402 put his value over 24 million. 254 were over 26 million. 144 were over 28 million.

The AI response to how much the Bulls should pay Giddey (I don't use AI as a source normally but it does a reasonable job of summarizing what it sees from multiple sites on the internet):

"He is reportedly seeking a contract extension in the range of $30 million annually. This would be similar to the contract Jalen Suggs signed with the Orlando Magic.
Some sources suggest he might land a deal closer to $25 million per year.
His agents reportedly believe he's seeking a contract worth roughly $30 million in average annual value.
Based on his performance, some believe his talent merits a contract of $25-27 million per season for four years.
One analyst's formula even projected his annual value at $34 million, although this was noted as potentially overinflated due to his age and rebounding skills."

When someone says they want 30, and the consensus is they will get closer to 25, that infers somewhere between 25-30 mil. All to say that your idea that most agree with you that 30 million is dramatically more than he is worth isn't true.

FWIW, the comment about him believing Giddey is worth dramatically more than everyone else was based on a comment he made that if push came to shove, he would match an offer of a max contract to Giddey today because he thinks Giddey is worth that deal. I believe thinking Giddey is worth a max contract is dramatically more than the majority of people.

We're clearly not going to give him a max contract, but he believes the risk of having to pay him over 40M next year is very high, and believes at a fundamental deal that 30M is a value contract for Giddey based on his willingness to match even a max deal. I think those estimates are what is different than the majority opinion.

Lying again. please repost where I said I would pay him a max contract. If I did somewhere, I certainly misspoke, but I don't believe it. I said I would have no problem giving him the $30 mill right now. That's very far from max. I did not express he's likely to get over $40 mill next year, please repost where I said that. Giddey can't even get a "max" deal, most he can get is rookie max. I think the odds he would make over $25 mill next year, which is the number you were presenting, is extremely high.

The "max" Giddey could even get right now is $38.6 mill year 1. That's a long way from $30 mill. I also expressed I would be happy if we signed him for less than $30 mill, but if we're starting at $22 mill, that's bad faith negotiations and bad business. Tell the whole story. I specifically asked if Utah offered him $30 mill or more, would you be in favor of the Bulls just letting him go. In all your statements, you neglected to answer a straight out, yes or no question.

[League Circles]

In a Redditt poll of about 500 posters, 402 put his value over 24 million. 254 were over 26 million. 144 were over 28 million.

The AI response to how much the Bulls should pay Giddey (I don't use AI as a source normally but it does a reasonable job of summarizing what it sees from multiple sites on the internet):

"He is reportedly seeking a contract extension in the range of $30 million annually. This would be similar to the contract Jalen Suggs signed with the Orlando Magic.
Some sources suggest he might land a deal closer to $25 million per year.
His agents reportedly believe he's seeking a contract worth roughly $30 million in average annual value.
Based on his performance, some believe his talent merits a contract of $25-27 million per season for four years.
One analyst's formula even projected his annual value at $34 million, although this was noted as potentially overinflated due to his age and rebounding skills."

When someone says they want 30, and the consensus is they will get closer to 25, that infers somewhere between 25-30 mil. All to say that your idea that most agree with you that 30 million is dramatically more than he is worth isn't true.

FWIW, the comment about him believing Giddey is worth dramatically more than everyone else was based on a comment he made that if push came to shove, he would match an offer of a max contract to Giddey today because he thinks Giddey is worth that deal. I believe thinking Giddey is worth a max contract is dramatically more than the majority of people.

We're clearly not going to give him a max contract, but he believes the risk of having to pay him over 40M next year is very high, and believes at a fundamental deal that 30M is a value contract for Giddey based on his willingness to match even a max deal. I think those estimates are what is different than the majority opinion.

In fairness, being willing to match a max offer doesn't have to mean you think he's worth it. It could just mean you think maxing him, while maybe overpaying at least based on what he's done so far, is less bad than letting him walk for nothing. Which it might be IMO.

[Stratmaster]

In a Redditt poll of about 500 posters, 402 put his value over 24 million. 254 were over 26 million. 144 were over 28 million.

The AI response to how much the Bulls should pay Giddey (I don't use AI as a source normally but it does a reasonable job of summarizing what it sees from multiple sites on the internet):

"He is reportedly seeking a contract extension in the range of $30 million annually. This would be similar to the contract Jalen Suggs signed with the Orlando Magic.
Some sources suggest he might land a deal closer to $25 million per year.
His agents reportedly believe he's seeking a contract worth roughly $30 million in average annual value.
Based on his performance, some believe his talent merits a contract of $25-27 million per season for four years.
One analyst's formula even projected his annual value at $34 million, although this was noted as potentially overinflated due to his age and rebounding skills."

When someone says they want 30, and the consensus is they will get closer to 25, that infers somewhere between 25-30 mil. All to say that your idea that most agree with you that 30 million is dramatically more than he is worth isn't true.

FWIW, the comment about him believing Giddey is worth dramatically more than everyone else was based on a comment he made that if push came to shove, he would match an offer of a max contract to Giddey today because he thinks Giddey is worth that deal. I believe thinking Giddey is worth a max contract is dramatically more than the majority of people.

We're clearly not going to give him a max contract, but he believes the risk of having to pay him over 40M next year is very high, and believes at a fundamental deal that 30M is a value contract for Giddey based on his willingness to match even a max deal. I think those estimates are what is different than the majority opinion.

A max for Giddey would be roughly 38.5. Giddey is asking for 30. No one has 38.5 to offer him. Whether or not someone would match 38.5 mil is really of no consequence. I don't know what the context was of the max deal contract. Didn't see that. If Giddey were unrestricted and there were several teams with space to sign him, I could certainly see him getting over 30 mil and then the team would have to decide if they think he is worth it. Fortunately, the Bulls aren't in that spot, and Giddey isn't asking for that. Giddey is worth what he is asking. Due to circumstances he will surely get a few million less.

[dougthonus]

Lying again. please repost where I said I would pay him a max contract. If I did somewhere, I certainly misspoke, but I don't believe it. I said I would have no problem giving him the $30 mill right now. That's very far from max. I did not express he's likely to get over $40 mill next year, please repost where I said that. Giddey can't even get a "max" deal, most he can get is rookie max. I think the odds he would make over $25 mill next year, which is the number you were presenting, is extremely high.

The "max" Giddey could even get right now is $38.6 mill year 1. That's a long way from $30 mill. I also expressed I would be happy if we signed him for less than $30 mill, but if we're starting at $22 mill, that's bad faith negotiations and bad business. Tell the whole story. I specifically asked if Utah offered him $30 mill or more, would you be in favor of the Bulls just letting him go. In all your statements, you neglected to answer a straight out, yes or no question.

If I have misconstrued your opinion or left out some context, and you don't think that, I'll withdraw my view. I was not intentionally trying to misrepresent you. I believe you said that in one of our discussions, but I perhaps misread or perhaps you were overzealous in the heat of the moment, either way, if that's not what you really think, I will mention it no more (and not think of it from that perspective).

I must have missed you asking me if I would match 30M on Giddey, no, I would let him go at 30M. I've said general cap is 25M per year, I might be able to force myself to flex up to 27M but I'd really have to think about it. Granted, I've also said, my view on that is based on a lot of things including how I would pivot into paths our current FO probably will not.

[Infinity2152]

The max for Giddey right now is $38.6 mill year one. There's absolutely no reason to think that's even in play, so he's bringing up incredibly unlikely numbers. But yes, rather than lose Giddey for nothing, I'd take the chance on $38.6 mill. You're always taking risks in the NBA, albeit calculated risks. With an expanding cap, I believe Giddey would have plus trade value over the length of his contract. Only way I wouldn't do it is if I think there's a likely chance he's untradable on that contract for the next 5 years.

Now we're getting into how we value players. Would you give Luka $38 mill? No question. Banchero? No question? Morant? No question. If you look at comps of most RFA's getting contracts putting up even close to the numbers Giddey is putting up, rookie max is much closer to what they'd average, not 58% of max. That would be the 22 mill you're projecting they started at vs the $38.6 max.

A flat contract of $30 mill, vs a max contract starting at $38 mill and ascending with the cap are incredibly different animals. That's an entirely different hypothetical, with most reports saying Giddey's looking at $30 mill. A front loaded 5yr 150 mill contract would be even more savings with the rising cap.

There's a lot more to contracts than just money. Maybe they give up some on money, but front load the contract, make some of $150 mill performance bonuses, last year team option. Bulls could be better off with that contract than a straight 5 yrs/$125 mill.

Edit: posted this before I saw Doug's last post. No offense meant, these are just my opinions with some facts sprinkled in.

[League Circles]

Lying again. please repost where I said I would pay him a max contract. If I did somewhere, I certainly misspoke, but I don't believe it. I said I would have no problem giving him the $30 mill right now. That's very far from max. I did not express he's likely to get over $40 mill next year, please repost where I said that. Giddey can't even get a "max" deal, most he can get is rookie max. I think the odds he would make over $25 mill next year, which is the number you were presenting, is extremely high.

The "max" Giddey could even get right now is $38.6 mill year 1. That's a long way from $30 mill. I also expressed I would be happy if we signed him for less than $30 mill, but if we're starting at $22 mill, that's bad faith negotiations and bad business. Tell the whole story. I specifically asked if Utah offered him $30 mill or more, would you be in favor of the Bulls just letting him go. In all your statements, you neglected to answer a straight out, yes or no question.

If I have misconstrued your opinion or left out some context, and you don't think that, I'll withdraw my view. I was not intentionally trying to misrepresent you. I believe you said that in one of our discussions, but I perhaps misread or perhaps you were overzealous in the heat of the moment, either way, if that's not what you really think, I will mention it no more (and not think of it from that perspective).

I must have missed you asking me if I would match 30M on Giddey, no, I would let him go at 30M. I've said general cap is 25M per year, I might be able to force myself to flex up to 27M but I'd really have to think about it. Granted, I've also said, my view on that is based on a lot of things including how I would pivot into paths our current FO probably will not.

Man, as one of the more skeptical guys on Giddey, I gotta respect this line in the sand for you even though I disagree. I'd easily match 30 mil AAV, and even offer it, at least with a team option or non guarantee on year 4 or 5. A deal starting at 30 mil with max raises I would match but not offer over the QO.

You seriously wouldn't match even like a 5 year, 30 mil AAV deal with like a team option on year 5?

[Infinity2152]

Know what a lot of this feels like. Ever buy some stock and say "it's at 15 now, I'll sell if it gets to $20."? You won't sell at $18, because you just created an arbitrary point based on little or nothing? "I'll pay up to $250k for a house with one bathroom but no more." People like round numbers. When I ask this question, I'm genuinely not trying to be difficult, but I really want to know where people are coming up with $20 mill, $25 mill, $30 mill as his value or cap. I do see $26, $27 popping up as meeting in the middle, but where exactly does the $30 mill cap come from?

As far as I know, like in most sports, new contracts are based on similar previous contracts by previous players. Adjusted for the rising cap. Sugg's contract has literally been brought up repeatedly. Would love to see calculations where people actually put some thought into saying what they would pay. Use any metrics you want that you think count in business negotiations, be in points, rebounds, assists per dollar paid, similar age players entering the same contract situation and adjusting, etc.

If for instance, Jalen Suggs is the primary comp. Similar guys, similar situation guys would be like Jalen Green, Anferenee Simons, Scottie Barnes, etc. Guys don't have to be exactly like Giddey, what do guys you see as the same LEVEL as Giddey get as a percentage of the cap in RFA? Use those numbers. No two players are the same, every player's comp in history has to be adjusted.

Not trying to knock anybody. But can't tell you how many times I've had a client say "I want to get X for my house" using a price they made up in their head and ignoring actual market analysis which would say their house is probably worse more or less than they think it is. X is almost always a round number, " I want $150k, $200k, $250k." Never had a client say "I've looked at similar houses in the area sold over the last three months, price my house at $188k." Just sharing my personal experiences, I'm not claiming to be the perfect negotiator .

[dougthonus]

Man, as one of the more skeptical guys on Giddey, I gotta respect this line in the sand for you even though I disagree. I'd easily match 30 mil AAV, and even offer it, at least with a team option or non guarantee on year 4 or 5. A deal starting at 30 mil with max raises I would match but not offer over the QO.

You seriously wouldn't match even like a 5 year, 30 mil AAV deal with like a team option on year 5?

It's kind of complicated, but if I ran the Bulls and had full discretion, then no.

If I ran the Bulls but had a bunch of incentives that might change my actions, then maybe, depending what they were.

If I ran the Bulls and was forced to follow AK's game plan of not wanting to rebuild, then yes.

[dougthonus]

Know what a lot of this feels like. Ever buy some stock and say "it's at 15 now, I'll sell if it gets to $20."? You won't sell at $18, because you just created an arbitrary point based on little or nothing? "I'll pay up to $250k for a house with one bathroom but no more." People like round numbers. When I ask this question, I'm genuinely not trying to be difficult, but I really want to know where people are coming up with $20 mill, $25 mill, $30 mill as his value or cap. I do see $26, $27 popping up as meeting in the middle, but where exactly does the $30 mill cap come from?

As far as I know, like in most sports, new contracts are based on similar previous contracts by previous players. Adjusted for the rising cap. Sugg's contract has literally been brought up repeatedly. Would love to see calculations where people actually put some thought into saying what they would pay. Use any metrics you want that you think count in business negotiations, be in points, rebounds, assists per dollar paid, similar age players entering the same contract situation and adjusting, etc.

If for instance, Jalen Suggs is the primary comp. Similar guys, similar situation guys would be like Jalen Green, Anferenee Simons, Scottie Barnes, etc. Guys don't have to be exactly like Giddey, what do guys you see as the same LEVEL as Giddey get as a percentage of the cap in RFA? Use those numbers. No two players are the same, every player's comp in history has to be adjusted.

Not trying to knock anybody. But can't tell you how many times I've had a client say "I want to get X for my house" using a price they made up in their head and ignoring actual market analysis which would say their house is probably worse more or less than they think it is. X is almost always a round number, " I want $150k, $200k, $250k." Never had a client say "I've looked at similar houses in the area sold over the last three months, price my house at $188k." Just sharing my personal experiences, I'm not claiming to be the perfect negotiator .

Maybe to use this analogy, it's like seeing a house you just hate all the esthetics of, and it's worth 300k based on the number of bedrooms, bathrooms, and neighborhood but after the home inspection, you realize it needs 20k of repairs, and then you really dislike the layout of the house.

Whether the house is worth 300k or not, you'd rather just go buy a different 300k house, but if the house was 250k, it's enough that you'd say I can live with the lousy layout and make all the repairs needed.

As for Suggs, I sure as hell wouldn't want Suggs at 30M a year either, so using a bad contract to justify this contract isn't compelling to me. If you find someone who likes Suggs at 30M then maybe that would be different, but you also couldn't find two more different players than Giddey and Suggs either, so it's not really much of a comparison.

There are very few contracts handed out in this range for a variety of reasons, but Herb Jones signed last year for 22M a year, I'd rather have Herb Jones than Josh Giddey, and so that's just as valid a comparison to me. He's as similar to Giddey as Suggs is (which is not even remotely similar).

Ignoring player comparisons though, because there aren't any similar ones, a question I ask is on a championship team, how many players do I have better than Josh Giddey, and my thought is 3 or more, and 30M is too much for your fourth starter. On a 40 win team, I think Giddey might be able to be your best or 2nd best player, and so if you look at it that way, 30M feels cheap.

From a Reinsdorf perspective, trying to build 1st round exit teams, Giddey at 30M isn't unreasonable, hence why I've said he's a floor raiser but ceiling lowering type guy. You don't have to agree with that assessment of course, it's just my assessment and is part of my pricing of him.

[MGB8]

Respectfully Dez, this is really naive. It just goes against human nature. Have you ever felt underpaid or disrespected in a job? If you did, you hopefully didn't cut off your nose to spite your face. You took the best deal you could get and immediately started plotting how and when you could get out of there.

Just hope their is new delusion from either side…

Giddey thinking he’s worth the max.

AK thinking he’s worth 20M max.

Giddey said before FA started he wanted $30M and we got a mid FA update that they were thought he was worth at least Suggs who got $30M, so I don't think his agent is thinking close to max. Although he's played better than Scottie Barnes, who did get max.

Eh…. Barnes is a much better defender, and has had 2 full seasons at ~ 20 ppg, 8 rb, 6 as, 2.5 or so stl+blk. Poor from 3 and poor scoring efficiency, but still. Not to mention 9’0 reach, 7’2.5 wingspan - both 4-6 inches greater than Giddey…. But Giddey is barely more efficient when looking across any multi season stretch, and has t had the sustained production, nor the D or base athletic profile…

[sco]

I still like the idea of a declining deal. Start this year at $32 and then have it decline to $25 over time. Point being that paying him extra this season has no impact on our roster construction.

[dougthonus]

Giddey said before FA started he wanted $30M and we got a mid FA update that they were thought he was worth at least Suggs who got $30M, so I don't think his agent is thinking close to max. Although he's played better than Scottie Barnes, who did get max.

Scottie Barnes averaged 19.9/8.2/6.1 as a plus defender, plus athlete, and made the all-star team the summer prior to getting the max.

Jalen Suggs got 30M as a player that shot 40% from three and made an all-defense team. Literally the exact prototype of the modern NBA 3rd/4th option that can fit next to any player in the NBA, excelling in the two most valuable skills even if the shooting was likely a mirage. Part of the reason I hate his contract now.

Josh Giddey averaged 14.6/8.1/7.2 as a minus defender, minus athlete, not an all-star this year.