Lauri:' I can make the comeback'

[Indomitable]

The only person I’ve seen analyze this RFA class is Hollinger (former Grizzlies exec and stats-based analyst). His numbers-based analysis pegged Lauri’s value at 18.1, which is interesting to me only because I would think numbers wouldn’t favor him.



https://theathletic.com/2194510/2020/11/13/contract-extensions-what-bam-tatum-fox-and-rest-of-class-of-2017-are-worth/?amp

Anti-Lauri brigade reaction:

If he pays well this season and they end up matching an offer of 18.1 year one with 8% decreases the next 3 seasons, I am great with that. First he has to play well.

No one is anti-Lauri; at least I am not. But he hasn't done anything to earn 18 mil a year yet.

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I question his desire to improve and to many people make excuse for him. In many ways Portis is a better player. Portis has actually improved his shot. He was an inferior athlete to Lauri but at least he seems to get better.

[dougthonus]

He's not even a stat based guy, but just a guy that believes heavily in his own stat, PER.

It's been like 5 seconds since I last heard someone here using Lauri's PER as proof as to why he's not worth a 15 million dollar contract.

PER is an outdated stat.

PIPM, RPM, Raptor are better overall. Lauri doesn't really stand out in those.

We'll see what he does this coming season.

PER is a box score stat, and it is somewhat outdated perhaps as a pure box score stat.

I agree that PER is not a perfect all in one encompassing stat (to which I don't think there is such a stat, though Raptor attempts to be), but it has a pretty obvious use to it that is still valid today. If you look at something like RAPTOR, RPM, or PIPM, they'll tell you that Shaq Harrison was a better player than Zach LaVine for the Bulls last year. In fact, Shaq Harrison, vet minimum guy that he is, is clearly the best player on the Bulls by Raptor last season.

There are extreme flaws in stats that apply value to an outcome based on correlation rather than causation which is one of the basic principles of statistical analysis. Every stat you named, at its core is a correlation based stat not a causation based stat which is why every stat you named has some really funky outcomes.

So I wouldn't say that PER is outdated or even worse than those stats, you should know what PER is good at and what it isn't good at as with all those other stats you mentioned. If you want causation based stats that look at what a player actually did, you should be looking at things like PER which I think is still one of the better ones. If you want to look at correlation based stats the ones you mentioned are all there.

What I think would be interesting, and maybe someone has done so but hasn't really made it popular, is if someone created an updated stat like PER but to take into account things like how often they are assisted on shots and other modern box score / causal type data that wasn't readily available when PER was introduced.

[RedBulls23]

It's been like 5 seconds since I last heard someone here using Lauri's PER as proof as to why he's not worth a 15 million dollar contract.

PER is an outdated stat.

PIPM, RPM, Raptor are better overall. Lauri doesn't really stand out in those.

We'll see what he does this coming season.

PER is a box score stat, and it is somewhat outdated perhaps as a pure box score stat.

I agree that PER is not a perfect all in one encompassing stat (to which I don't think there is such a stat, though Raptor attempts to be), but it has a pretty obvious use to it that is still valid today. If you look at something like RAPTOR, RPM, or PIPM, they'll tell you that Shaq Harrison was a better player than Zach LaVine for the Bulls last year. In fact, Shaq Harrison, vet minimum guy that he is, is clearly the best player on the Bulls by Raptor last season.

There are extreme flaws in stats that apply value to an outcome based on correlation rather than causation which is one of the basic principles of statistical analysis. Every stat you named, at its core is a correlation based stat not a causation based stat which is why every stat you named has some really funky outcomes.

So I wouldn't say that PER is outdated or even worse than those stats, you should know what PER is good at and what it isn't good at as with all those other stats you mentioned. If you want causation based stats that look at what a player actually did, you should be looking at things like PER which I think is still one of the better ones. If you want to look at correlation based stats the ones you mentioned are all there.

What I think would be interesting, and maybe someone has done so but hasn't really made it popular, is if someone created an updated stat like PER but to take into account things like how often they are assisted on shots and other modern box score / causal type data that wasn't readily available when PER was introduced.

Well there also should be more nuances involved too.

For example, the type of role that player plays on his team. If Zach wasn't forced to be the lead ball handler and someone else could take over those duties, his advanced stats would look better.

If Shaq was given the responsibility of being the 1sy option defense focused in on him, then his advanced stats would not look so great.

I think what Shaq's current stat shows is that he's great at what his specific role. A defensive hustle player that has a low usage on offense.

So I guess it's fair to say we should also think a little critically when looking at the stats.

I think PIPM does at least a good job of acknowledging the type of role on offense and defense each player plays.

[Stratmaster]

Anti-Lauri brigade reaction:

If he pays well this season and they end up matching an offer of 18.1 year one with 8% decreases the next 3 seasons, I am great with that. First he has to play well.

No one is anti-Lauri; at least I am not. But he hasn't done anything to earn 18 mil a year yet.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

I question his desire to improve and to many people make excuse for him. In many ways Portis is a better player. Portis has actually improved his shot. He was an inferior athlete to Lauri but at least he seems to get better.

I part ways with you on Portis. BP has never seen a shot he didn't like. What's he getting paid? Vet minimum?

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[Stratmaster]

It's been like 5 seconds since I last heard someone here using Lauri's PER as proof as to why he's not worth a 15 million dollar contract.

PER is an outdated stat.

PIPM, RPM, Raptor are better overall. Lauri doesn't really stand out in those.

We'll see what he does this coming season.

PER is a box score stat, and it is somewhat outdated perhaps as a pure box score stat.

I agree that PER is not a perfect all in one encompassing stat (to which I don't think there is such a stat, though Raptor attempts to be), but it has a pretty obvious use to it that is still valid today. If you look at something like RAPTOR, RPM, or PIPM, they'll tell you that Shaq Harrison was a better player than Zach LaVine for the Bulls last year. In fact, Shaq Harrison, vet minimum guy that he is, is clearly the best player on the Bulls by Raptor last season.

There are extreme flaws in stats that apply value to an outcome based on correlation rather than causation which is one of the basic principles of statistical analysis. Every stat you named, at its core is a correlation based stat not a causation based stat which is why every stat you named has some really funky outcomes.

So I wouldn't say that PER is outdated or even worse than those stats, you should know what PER is good at and what it isn't good at as with all those other stats you mentioned. If you want causation based stats that look at what a player actually did, you should be looking at things like PER which I think is still one of the better ones. If you want to look at correlation based stats the ones you mentioned are all there.

What I think would be interesting, and maybe someone has done so but hasn't really made it popular, is if someone created an updated stat like PER but to take into account things like how often they are assisted on shots and other modern box score / causal type data that wasn't readily available when PER was introduced.

Good points. Those stats tell you what happened but not how or why, nor any context or consideration of environment. There will never be a single stat that does.

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[Indomitable]

If he pays well this season and they end up matching an offer of 18.1 year one with 8% decreases the next 3 seasons, I am great with that. First he has to play well.

No one is anti-Lauri; at least I am not. But he hasn't done anything to earn 18 mil a year yet.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

I question his desire to improve and to many people make excuse for him. In many ways Portis is a better player. Portis has actually improved his shot. He was an inferior athlete to Lauri but at least he seems to get better.

I part ways with you on Portis. BP has never seen a shot he didn't like. What's he getting paid? Vet minimum?

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

I was not a fan. But he has actually improved his shooting. I do not want here but he has at least improved. Lauri seems to be the same player. He is comfortable.

[BigJimFinn]

If he pays well this season and they end up matching an offer of 18.1 year one with 8% decreases the next 3 seasons, I am great with that. First he has to play well.

No one is anti-Lauri; at least I am not. But he hasn't done anything to earn 18 mil a year yet.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

I question his desire to improve and to many people make excuse for him. In many ways Portis is a better player. Portis has actually improved his shot. He was an inferior athlete to Lauri but at least he seems to get better.

I part ways with you on Portis. BP has never seen a shot he didn't like. What's he getting paid? Vet minimum?

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

Portis signed with the Bucks! for 2 years/7.5M, so about double the vet min.
If Lauri doesn't get a bigger contract from some NBA team, I offer to never post on the Bulls forum again.

[dougthonus]

I was not a fan. But he has actually improved his shooting. I do not want here but he has at least improved. Lauri seems to be the same player. He is comfortable.

Bobby Portis vs Lauri Markkanen

When you look at the per minute stats and the advanced stats, there is very minimal difference between these guys. Portis seems kind of like a crazy ahole which might not be great for team culture, but Lauri doesn't necessarily seem like a great culture guy either, passive, gets defeated easily, low motor, etc..

Neither one is a plus defender by any stretch, like I'd say sure, Lauri is better, but it shows you how little Lauri is actually worth IMO.

[coldfish]

I was not a fan. But he has actually improved his shooting. I do not want here but he has at least improved. Lauri seems to be the same player. He is comfortable.

Bobby Portis vs Lauri Markkanen

When you look at the per minute stats and the advanced stats, there is very minimal difference between these guys. Portis seems kind of like a crazy ahole which might not be great for team culture, but Lauri doesn't necessarily seem like a great culture guy either, passive, gets defeated easily, low motor, etc..

Neither one is a plus defender by any stretch, like I'd say sure, Lauri is better, but it shows you how little Lauri is actually worth IMO.

Good comparison. In these threads I have noted that you can get a guy like Markannen nowadays for the MLE any time you want. Portis getting less than that for the same production is a great example. Any contract more than the MLE for Lauri is based on the assumption that he is going to significantly improve.

The unfortunate reality is that Chicago is in a lose lose situation now. If Lauri does improve some, he is going to get a massive offer from some team. If he doesn't, then Chicago will have a busted #7 pick.

[dougthonus]

I was not a fan. But he has actually improved his shooting. I do not want here but he has at least improved. Lauri seems to be the same player. He is comfortable.

Bobby Portis vs Lauri Markkanen

When you look at the per minute stats and the advanced stats, there is very minimal difference between these guys. Portis seems kind of like a crazy ahole which might not be great for team culture, but Lauri doesn't necessarily seem like a great culture guy either, passive, gets defeated easily, low motor, etc..

Neither one is a plus defender by any stretch, like I'd say sure, Lauri is better, but it shows you how little Lauri is actually worth IMO.

Good comparison. In these threads I have noted that you can get a guy like Markannen nowadays for the MLE any time you want. Portis getting less than that for the same production is a great example. Any contract more than the MLE for Lauri is based on the assumption that he is going to significantly improve.

The unfortunate reality is that Chicago is in a lose lose situation now. If Lauri does improve some, he is going to get a massive offer from some team. If he doesn't, then Chicago will have a busted #7 pick.

I think it's more of a lose/tie. We only lose if we overpay him. IMO, its already clear that it is highly likely he'll be on a really bad deal next deal regardless of whether he improves a lot or not. So avoid that bad deal and you've tied.

[cjbulls]

I was not a fan. But he has actually improved his shooting. I do not want here but he has at least improved. Lauri seems to be the same player. He is comfortable.

Bobby Portis vs Lauri Markkanen

When you look at the per minute stats and the advanced stats, there is very minimal difference between these guys. Portis seems kind of like a crazy ahole which might not be great for team culture, but Lauri doesn't necessarily seem like a great culture guy either, passive, gets defeated easily, low motor, etc..

Neither one is a plus defender by any stretch, like I'd say sure, Lauri is better, but it shows you how little Lauri is actually worth IMO.

If they’re so similar, care to explain why Bobby is an afterthought and Lauri is about to be overpaid?

[dougthonus]

If they’re so similar, care to explain why Bobby is an afterthought and Lauri is about to be overpaid?

It's not hard to imagine why people might make bad decisions. They get attached to some hype or some view of what a player might be or could be and don't let it go and get anchored in bad beliefs and make bad decisions.

Explaining why someone might make a bad decisions has many reasons. Showing that signing Lauri to a big contract is actually a good decision will be much more challenging IMO.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

I was not a fan. But he has actually improved his shooting. I do not want here but he has at least improved. Lauri seems to be the same player. He is comfortable.

Bobby Portis vs Lauri Markkanen

When you look at the per minute stats and the advanced stats, there is very minimal difference between these guys. Portis seems kind of like a crazy ahole which might not be great for team culture, but Lauri doesn't necessarily seem like a great culture guy either, passive, gets defeated easily, low motor, etc..

Neither one is a plus defender by any stretch, like I'd say sure, Lauri is better, but it shows you how little Lauri is actually worth IMO.

If they’re so similar, care to explain why Bobby is an afterthought and Lauri is about to be overpaid?

Shot discipline, size, and reputation are all reasons, but I suspect pedigree has a lot to do with it.

Everyone's trying to unlock Arizona Lauri. It's hard to process that the shooting in particular would just disappear.

[Indomitable]

If they’re so similar, care to explain why Bobby is an afterthought and Lauri is about to be overpaid?

It's not hard to imagine why people might make bad decisions. They get attached to some hype or some view of what a player might be or could be and don't let it go and get anchored in bad beliefs and make bad decisions.

Explaining why someone might make a bad decisions has many reasons. Showing that signing Lauri to a big contract is actually a good decision will be much more challenging IMO.

Never pay the comfortable. Those determined to prove themselves are my choice. Butler keeps ascending because he has an attitude. Lavine keeps growing. Lauri has yet to adjust his game.

[Indomitable]

Bobby Portis vs Lauri Markkanen

When you look at the per minute stats and the advanced stats, there is very minimal difference between these guys. Portis seems kind of like a crazy ahole which might not be great for team culture, but Lauri doesn't necessarily seem like a great culture guy either, passive, gets defeated easily, low motor, etc..

Neither one is a plus defender by any stretch, like I'd say sure, Lauri is better, but it shows you how little Lauri is actually worth IMO.

Good comparison. In these threads I have noted that you can get a guy like Markannen nowadays for the MLE any time you want. Portis getting less than that for the same production is a great example. Any contract more than the MLE for Lauri is based on the assumption that he is going to significantly improve.

The unfortunate reality is that Chicago is in a lose lose situation now. If Lauri does improve some, he is going to get a massive offer from some team. If he doesn't, then Chicago will have a busted #7 pick.

I think it's more of a lose/tie. We only lose if we overpay him. IMO, its already clear that it is highly likely he'll be on a really bad deal next deal regardless of whether he improves a lot or not. So avoid that bad deal and you've tied.

Use the cap to bring in a more versatile player.

[cjbulls]

If they’re so similar, care to explain why Bobby is an afterthought and Lauri is about to be overpaid?

It's not hard to imagine why people might make bad decisions. They get attached to some hype or some view of what a player might be or could be and don't let it go and get anchored in bad beliefs and make bad decisions.

Explaining why someone might make a bad decisions has many reasons. Showing that signing Lauri to a big contract is actually a good decision will be much more challenging IMO.

Or perhaps there is more to it than per 36 from a down year in evaluating players? I could have many counter-examples, including Year 2 Lauri vs. Gallinari, but it's not worth the effort of dragging up bench guys that happen to perform well offensively in limited minutes. I'll just leave it at the concept of several teams willing to pay Lauri $15M but no one wanting to play Bobby $5M+ is not a mistake (although it may not work out). I think if the rest of the league is generally in agreement and you are not, it's probably you.

They are different players with different attributes, personalities and potential. It's disingenuous to say you can replace the numbers based on per36. That isn't what Lauri's contract is going to be about, how he did on a per 36 in his worst season under Boylen.

But instead we can just mark down that you feel Portis and Markkanen are equivalent players.

Again, I'm down on Lauri and don't want to pay him big money absent some major change this year, but this effort to turn Lauri into a bottom of the roster player is getting more than a bit out of hand. Somehow over the course of this offeason, the die-hard Lauri fans have been overtaken by the die-hard Lauri haters in who can try to be more outrageous. I'm half expecting to see someone start bringing up Simi Shittu's G league numbers next as an equivalent replacement.

[MrSparkle]

If they’re so similar, care to explain why Bobby is an afterthought and Lauri is about to be overpaid?

It's not hard to imagine why people might make bad decisions. They get attached to some hype or some view of what a player might be or could be and don't let it go and get anchored in bad beliefs and make bad decisions.

Explaining why someone might make a bad decisions has many reasons. Showing that signing Lauri to a big contract is actually a good decision will be much more challenging IMO.

Or perhaps there is more to it than per 36 from a down year in evaluating players? I could have many counter-examples, including Year 2 Lauri vs. Gallinari, but it's not worth the effort of dragging up bench guys that happen to perform well offensively in limited minutes. I'll just leave it at the concept of several teams willing to pay Lauri $15M but no one wanting to play Bobby $5M+ is not a mistake (although it may not work out). I think if the rest of the league is generally in agreement and you are not, it's probably you.

They are different players with different attributes, personalities and potential. It's disingenuous to say you can replace the numbers based on per36. That isn't what Lauri's contract is going to be about, how he did on a per 36 in his worst season under Boylen.

But instead we can just mark down that you feel Portis and Markkanen are equivalent players.

Again, I'm down on Lauri and don't want to pay him big money absent some major change this year, but this effort to turn Lauri into a bottom of the roster player is getting more than a bit out of hand. Somehow over the course of this offeason, the die-hard Lauri fans have been overtaken by the die-hard Lauri haters in who can try to be more outrageous. I'm half expecting to see someone start bringing up Simi Shittu's G league numbers next as an equivalent replacement.

Everyone brings different strengths and weaknesses, even if their net effect and role is very similar (ala Shaq and Dunn). But sure - if you look at Bobby and Lauri's Per 36 and Advanced stats, they are extremely similar: https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=markkla01&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2=portibo01&p2yrfrom=2020

Lauri has a much better head on his shoulders, much nicer guy, albeit at the cost of confidence and intensity. He's also been starting whereas Bobby's been a career reserve. Bobby earned himself a $3.5m salary in MIL. Is Lauri worth $15-20m in comparison?

[TheSuzerain]

Lauri is basically a dinosaur if we're being bluntly honest about it. His position doesn't exist anymore.

Trade him for a future 1st. Use the cap space you saved to sign Terence Davis, THT, and/or Bol Bol,

[cjbulls]

It's not hard to imagine why people might make bad decisions. They get attached to some hype or some view of what a player might be or could be and don't let it go and get anchored in bad beliefs and make bad decisions.

Explaining why someone might make a bad decisions has many reasons. Showing that signing Lauri to a big contract is actually a good decision will be much more challenging IMO.

Or perhaps there is more to it than per 36 from a down year in evaluating players? I could have many counter-examples, including Year 2 Lauri vs. Gallinari, but it's not worth the effort of dragging up bench guys that happen to perform well offensively in limited minutes. I'll just leave it at the concept of several teams willing to pay Lauri $15M but no one wanting to play Bobby $5M+ is not a mistake (although it may not work out). I think if the rest of the league is generally in agreement and you are not, it's probably you.

They are different players with different attributes, personalities and potential. It's disingenuous to say you can replace the numbers based on per36. That isn't what Lauri's contract is going to be about, how he did on a per 36 in his worst season under Boylen.

But instead we can just mark down that you feel Portis and Markkanen are equivalent players.

Again, I'm down on Lauri and don't want to pay him big money absent some major change this year, but this effort to turn Lauri into a bottom of the roster player is getting more than a bit out of hand. Somehow over the course of this offeason, the die-hard Lauri fans have been overtaken by the die-hard Lauri haters in who can try to be more outrageous. I'm half expecting to see someone start bringing up Simi Shittu's G league numbers next as an equivalent replacement.

Everyone brings different strengths and weaknesses, even if their net effect and role is very similar (ala Shaq and Dunn). But sure - if you look at Bobby and Lauri's Per 36 and Advanced stats, they are extremely similar: https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=markkla01&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2=portibo01&p2yrfrom=2020

Lauri has a much better head on his shoulders, much nicer guy, albeit at the cost of confidence and intensity. He's also been starting whereas Bobby's been a career reserve. Bobby earned himself a $3.5m salary in MIL. Is Lauri worth $15-20m in comparison?

Here's Lauri year 2 against Danilo Gallinari. Gallinari just inked 3/61.5 at age 31, Lauri will be 24.

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=markkla01&p1yrfrom=2019&player_id2=gallida01&p2yrfrom=2020

So you have Portis and you have Gallinari. What now?

[MrSparkle]

Or perhaps there is more to it than per 36 from a down year in evaluating players? I could have many counter-examples, including Year 2 Lauri vs. Gallinari, but it's not worth the effort of dragging up bench guys that happen to perform well offensively in limited minutes. I'll just leave it at the concept of several teams willing to pay Lauri $15M but no one wanting to play Bobby $5M+ is not a mistake (although it may not work out). I think if the rest of the league is generally in agreement and you are not, it's probably you.

They are different players with different attributes, personalities and potential. It's disingenuous to say you can replace the numbers based on per36. That isn't what Lauri's contract is going to be about, how he did on a per 36 in his worst season under Boylen.

But instead we can just mark down that you feel Portis and Markkanen are equivalent players.

Again, I'm down on Lauri and don't want to pay him big money absent some major change this year, but this effort to turn Lauri into a bottom of the roster player is getting more than a bit out of hand. Somehow over the course of this offeason, the die-hard Lauri fans have been overtaken by the die-hard Lauri haters in who can try to be more outrageous. I'm half expecting to see someone start bringing up Simi Shittu's G league numbers next as an equivalent replacement.

Everyone brings different strengths and weaknesses, even if their net effect and role is very similar (ala Shaq and Dunn). But sure - if you look at Bobby and Lauri's Per 36 and Advanced stats, they are extremely similar: https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=markkla01&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2=portibo01&p2yrfrom=2020

Lauri has a much better head on his shoulders, much nicer guy, albeit at the cost of confidence and intensity. He's also been starting whereas Bobby's been a career reserve. Bobby earned himself a $3.5m salary in MIL. Is Lauri worth $15-20m in comparison?

Here's Lauri year 2 against Danilo Gallinari. Gallinari just inked 3/61.5 at age 31, Lauri will be 24.

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=markkla01&p1yrfrom=2019&player_id2=gallida01&p2yrfrom=2020

So you have Portis and you have Gallinari. What now?

Ha, wait - why did you compare Gallo's 19/20 season to Lauri's 18/19?

Gallo's numbers were better in 18/19, and Lauri's were worse in 19/20. Regardless, even in your comparison, Galli's advanced stats were better in almost every area. You should also check out the Play-By-Play stats.