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Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April)

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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#841 » by fleet » Sun Jan 9, 2022 5:05 pm

Wingy wrote:
coldfish wrote:
mack2354 wrote:Pat's floor is perfect for what we need short term. I guy who can hit the catch and shoot 3's at a high rate, play average defense at the 4, and not be a liability with defense on the peremiter. Perfect.

The problem is for a 4th pick in the draft people want a superstar. He has played way too conservative, timid, and inconsistent for that. The team is poised for success long term if he improves at the same time DeMar and Vuc start declining.

I don't think in 2022 that we need more than a 6'9 Tony Snell so I'm cool with keeping him. He may develop into more. He may not. I'm patient and don't want to move him. I really think the idea of trading Pat or not comes to how patient fans are and how small they believe our championship window is.

I wouldn't trade Pat right now and I hope our FO feels the same.

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Pat's floor is someone on the bench in street clothes during one of two playoff runs with Vuc and Derozan.

I think people are thinking replacing them will be easier than it actually will. You don't hold onto a potential 4th or 5th man while wasting a year with a near MVP level player.

"Hey, MJ is in his 30's and the team has no PF but hey, Jason Caffey might be ready in a few years so let's stay away from Rodman and we will just replace MJ when he leaves."

As I said above, I suspect that there will be no trade. In which case, I sure hope that Pat starts playing in March and lives up to expectations because mack is largely right. The player who Pat theoretically could be is exactly what Chicago needs.


The biggest problem beyond the injury, and wanting a 4th pick to be a star (which, I don't think is a substantially real problem in terms of number of people that actually think like that) is that even if he does come back -- he's still a ways away from even getting to that floor that we need now.

Unless he suddenly turns some corner coming off a long layoff, and significant injury - despite some positive flashes - he wasn't average defensively, nor good on the perimeter. Then combine his slow release + more talented/harder playing/more disciplined playoff defenses - how often does he get his shot off despite generally good %s? With that it's questionable how well he can even deliver on those catch and shoot 3s. If he were at that floor already, I'd hope early returns on the medicals might tell us we could be good holding on for now. That floor could be years away still.

+1 to thinking replacement of DeMar/Vuc is going to be easy. I think AK can do it, but immediately with zero gap while still in Zach's physical prime? Tall, tall task. I don't see how we have anything but a short window w/Zach's max coming.

It takes two to tango, and an upgrade deal might not be there despite our 1000s of posts. But if there is, and we balk due to some dude who doesn't seem destined to be an all star, and could be years away from a modest floor? Sheesh.

I don’t know about AKME vision concerning this window, but imo reasons we would balk at trading young for old would be a lack of long term financial commitment/ability to pay a difference maker rental. People seem to walk right past the financial aspects. Nothing to go on, but I will be surprised to see these guys go all in for a window rental.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#842 » by Wingy » Sun Jan 9, 2022 5:15 pm

fleet wrote:I don’t know about AKME vision concerning this window, but imo reasons we would balk at trading young for old would be a lack of long term financial commitment/ability to pay a difference maker rental. People seem to walk right past the financial aspects. Nothing to go on, but I will be surprised to see these guys go all in for a window rental.


Sigh. You're absolutely correct. I've largely let my ownership cynicism go to enjoy this run, but it's still there. I know my sig seems old, but I'm well aware that it's there, and I ain't changing it intentionally. Their removal of GarPax was completely reactionary, and had to be pushed by Pax. All the investments of late are touted by some fans here, but they really just get us on par with modern NBA franchises. Let's not kid ourselves acting like they're doing anything special. We've caught up with the Cavs now...fist pump!!

I have zero faith in this ownership group.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#843 » by fleet » Sun Jan 9, 2022 5:18 pm

I just think after they pay Zach they will not likely be putting big money into a power forward.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#844 » by coldfish » Sun Jan 9, 2022 5:18 pm

fleet wrote:
Wingy wrote:
coldfish wrote:
Pat's floor is someone on the bench in street clothes during one of two playoff runs with Vuc and Derozan.

I think people are thinking replacing them will be easier than it actually will. You don't hold onto a potential 4th or 5th man while wasting a year with a near MVP level player.

"Hey, MJ is in his 30's and the team has no PF but hey, Jason Caffey might be ready in a few years so let's stay away from Rodman and we will just replace MJ when he leaves."

As I said above, I suspect that there will be no trade. In which case, I sure hope that Pat starts playing in March and lives up to expectations because mack is largely right. The player who Pat theoretically could be is exactly what Chicago needs.


The biggest problem beyond the injury, and wanting a 4th pick to be a star (which, I don't think is a substantially real problem in terms of number of people that actually think like that) is that even if he does come back -- he's still a ways away from even getting to that floor that we need now.

Unless he suddenly turns some corner coming off a long layoff, and significant injury - despite some positive flashes - he wasn't average defensively, nor good on the perimeter. Then combine his slow release + more talented/harder playing/more disciplined playoff defenses - how often does he get his shot off despite generally good %s? With that it's questionable how well he can even deliver on those catch and shoot 3s. If he were at that floor already, I'd hope early returns on the medicals might tell us we could be good holding on for now. That floor could be years away still.

+1 to thinking replacement of DeMar/Vuc is going to be easy. I think AK can do it, but immediately with zero gap while still in Zach's physical prime? Tall, tall task. I don't see how we have anything but a short window w/Zach's max coming.

It takes two to tango, and an upgrade deal might not be there despite our 1000s of posts. But if there is, and we balk due to some dude who doesn't seem destined to be an all star, and could be years away from a modest floor? Sheesh.

I don’t know about AKME vision concerning this window, but imo reasons we would balk at trading young for old would be a lack of long term financial commitment/ability to pay a difference maker rental. People seem to walk right past the financial aspects. Nothing to go on, but I will be surprised to see these guys go all in for a window rental.


If you really want to go all in and create some potential financial problems, trade DJJ and TBJ's expiring contracts along with the Portland pick, future Bulls picks and swaps. Virtually no one is suggesting that.

Pat makes $7m next year as well as Coby. Those are the guys being bandied about in trade.

I do kind of doubt that the team does it for the reasons you state though. Trading Pat + DJJ for Grant (as an example), means lux tax next year and I suspect that the real Bulls wouldn't even do that.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#845 » by Wingy » Sun Jan 9, 2022 5:24 pm

coldfish wrote:
If you really want to go all in and create some potential financial problems, trade DJJ and TBJ's expiring contracts along with the Portland pick, future Bulls picks and swaps. Virtually no one is suggesting that.

Pat makes $7m next year as well as Coby. Those are the guys being bandied about in trade.

I do kind of doubt that the team does it for the reasons you state though. Trading Pat + DJJ for Grant (as an example), means lux tax next year and I suspect that the real Bulls wouldn't even do that.


I'll never understand the lux tax challenge. Certainly far from a financial expert, but the brand equity/fair weather fan dollars/increased fan base & name recognition + increased franchise valuation, attendance...what you can charge for lux boxes + season tickets + advertising all grow with a winner. Is it really that much of a loss in the big picture? I guess so since that's the way they operate and they can hire some really smart number crunchers, but I'd be really interested to see a realistic breakdown comp if there ever was one.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#846 » by Wingy » Sun Jan 9, 2022 5:27 pm

fleet wrote:I just think after they pay Zach they will not likely be putting big money into a power forward.


Just trade him for some picks. No tax concerns, problem solved. Everybody wins!
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#847 » by VolumePoster » Sun Jan 9, 2022 5:33 pm

I went back to look at some summer league and 2020-2021 footage on Pat - granted, highlight stuff. I think I'd forgotten how skilled, big and athletic this kid is for his age. If he continues to improve he's going to be seriously good - I'm not saying a star, but an excellent winning player.

Look. It's hard to play like your hair is on fire when you don't know what you're really doing. I'd be seriously anxious moving him.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#848 » by Wingy » Sun Jan 9, 2022 6:20 pm

VolumePoster wrote:I went back to look at some summer league and 2020-2021 footage on Pat - granted, highlight stuff. I think I'd forgotten how skilled, big and athletic this kid is for his age. If he continues to improve he's going to be seriously good - I'm not saying a star, but an excellent winning player.

Look. It's hard to play like your hair is on fire when you don't know what you're really doing. I'd be seriously anxious moving him.


summer league. Marko looked solid there.

But look, I largely agree w/you on Pat’s eventual outcome, but he’s several years away from being that blossomed excellent winning player. Said it recently, if we were the low playoff seed everyone thought we’d be, then I’d be glad to hold and wait on Pat. Now that we see where we are, and that DeMar has way more left than we dreamed, we can’t wait on a winning player who doesn’t have a lot of traits yelling ‘star’ at us. There are a LOT of good, winning players in the league.

Even if it’s a low % shot at the title, we need to take it. I don’t recall the last time this league has seen such parity...probably in my entire grew up in the 80s life. I’ve never seen it like now and the last few years.

Even the true superstars are flawed. KD, Embiid, Steph, Kawhi have all broken down. There’s no seemingly super-human invincible Michael, Shaq, Lebron that somehow is always available at top form in terms of health.

Giannis is a beast, but he’s no Michael/Kobe, or even Lebron type of consistently dominant scorer.

There’s no move that makes us the favorite. There’s no one we should downright fear either.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#849 » by gobullschi » Sun Jan 9, 2022 6:58 pm

Wingy wrote:
coldfish wrote:
If you really want to go all in and create some potential financial problems, trade DJJ and TBJ's expiring contracts along with the Portland pick, future Bulls picks and swaps. Virtually no one is suggesting that.

Pat makes $7m next year as well as Coby. Those are the guys being bandied about in trade.

I do kind of doubt that the team does it for the reasons you state though. Trading Pat + DJJ for Grant (as an example), means lux tax next year and I suspect that the real Bulls wouldn't even do that.


I'll never understand the lux tax challenge. Certainly far from a financial expert, but the brand equity/fair weather fan dollars/increased fan base & name recognition + increased franchise valuation, attendance...what you can charge for lux boxes + season tickets + advertising all grow with a winner. Is it really that much of a loss in the big picture? I guess so since that's the way they operate and they can hire some really smart number crunchers, but I'd be really interested to see a realistic breakdown comp if there ever was one.


Concerns that ownership won’t pay the luxury tax aren’t really justified (IMO) when you look at the context of each situation. The Bulls really never had a team that showed enough to where it would have made a difference.

I have no doubt in my mind that they wont hesitate paying the luxury tax with this roster. The Bulls are clearly contenders.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#850 » by Chi town » Sun Jan 9, 2022 7:38 pm

coldfish wrote:
logical_art wrote:Before we judge Pat too harshly based on the first 5 games of the season, let's not forget Coby's slow start adjusting to a new team and new role.


Pat's issues early on were the same ones he had last year and were his issues in college.

Maybe Pat can have a huge turnaround. I certainly hope so. I suspect there will be no trade, in which case I hope to hell he can get playing by some time in March.


Where you getting March? I’d love that to but I’m sure feeling good he even comes back before playoffs. He needs at least 15 games before playoffs just like Coby.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#851 » by Costa78 » Sun Jan 9, 2022 7:44 pm

Pat would need some games under his belt in the regular season. I wouldn't worry too much about his slow start this year. I don't doubt the talent, but my one concern I have with Pat is his passiveness. I believe he can be as good as he wants, and let's not forget that hes still VERY young
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#852 » by coldfish » Sun Jan 9, 2022 8:15 pm

Chi town wrote:
coldfish wrote:
logical_art wrote:Before we judge Pat too harshly based on the first 5 games of the season, let's not forget Coby's slow start adjusting to a new team and new role.


Pat's issues early on were the same ones he had last year and were his issues in college.

Maybe Pat can have a huge turnaround. I certainly hope so. I suspect there will be no trade, in which case I hope to hell he can get playing by some time in March.


Where you getting March? I’d love that to but I’m sure feeling good he even comes back before playoffs. He needs at least 15 games before playoffs just like Coby.


4 to 6 months. 4 months would actually be early March.

The organization has been very quiet about this overall. We have no idea where he really stands.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#853 » by coldfish » Sun Jan 9, 2022 8:19 pm

gobullschi wrote:
Wingy wrote:
coldfish wrote:
If you really want to go all in and create some potential financial problems, trade DJJ and TBJ's expiring contracts along with the Portland pick, future Bulls picks and swaps. Virtually no one is suggesting that.

Pat makes $7m next year as well as Coby. Those are the guys being bandied about in trade.

I do kind of doubt that the team does it for the reasons you state though. Trading Pat + DJJ for Grant (as an example), means lux tax next year and I suspect that the real Bulls wouldn't even do that.


I'll never understand the lux tax challenge. Certainly far from a financial expert, but the brand equity/fair weather fan dollars/increased fan base & name recognition + increased franchise valuation, attendance...what you can charge for lux boxes + season tickets + advertising all grow with a winner. Is it really that much of a loss in the big picture? I guess so since that's the way they operate and they can hire some really smart number crunchers, but I'd be really interested to see a realistic breakdown comp if there ever was one.


Concerns that ownership won’t pay the luxury tax aren’t really justified (IMO) when you look at the context of each situation. The Bulls really never had a team that showed enough to where it would have made a difference.

I have no doubt in my mind that they wont hesitate paying the luxury tax with this roster. The Bulls are clearly contenders.


I think concerns are justified. The owner has publicly said that he doesn't want to pay it and only would for a winner, which he clarified as meaning a team that has already made the conference finals.

In their defense, its a LOT of money. Now, maybe the Reinsdorfs are starting to realize that winning once in a while is necessary as it raises season ticket holder counts and seat values for years. Bulls ratings are way up this year too and given that JR owns part of the broadcaster, he is seeing revenue there.

I HOPE you are right. I'm not going to guarantee it.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#854 » by gardenofsound » Sun Jan 9, 2022 8:25 pm

coldfish wrote:
gobullschi wrote:
Wingy wrote:
I'll never understand the lux tax challenge. Certainly far from a financial expert, but the brand equity/fair weather fan dollars/increased fan base & name recognition + increased franchise valuation, attendance...what you can charge for lux boxes + season tickets + advertising all grow with a winner. Is it really that much of a loss in the big picture? I guess so since that's the way they operate and they can hire some really smart number crunchers, but I'd be really interested to see a realistic breakdown comp if there ever was one.


Concerns that ownership won’t pay the luxury tax aren’t really justified (IMO) when you look at the context of each situation. The Bulls really never had a team that showed enough to where it would have made a difference.

I have no doubt in my mind that they wont hesitate paying the luxury tax with this roster. The Bulls are clearly contenders.


I think concerns are justified. The owner has publicly said that he doesn't want to pay it and only would for a winner, which he clarified as meaning a team that has already made the conference finals.

In their defense, its a LOT of money. Now, maybe the Reinsdorfs are starting to realize that winning once in a while is necessary as it raises season ticket holder counts and seat values for years. Bulls ratings are way up this year too and given that JR owns part of the broadcaster, he is seeing revenue there.

I HOPE you are right. I'm not going to guarantee it.


I think the non-zero risk of fans no longer being in the stands due to public health restrictions is also top of mind for ownership. Remember, it's not only the Reinsdorfs... there are other board members to consider.

Paying the tax without arena revenue would be a really tough pill to swallow.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#855 » by gobullschi » Sun Jan 9, 2022 9:40 pm

coldfish wrote:
gobullschi wrote:
Wingy wrote:
I'll never understand the lux tax challenge. Certainly far from a financial expert, but the brand equity/fair weather fan dollars/increased fan base & name recognition + increased franchise valuation, attendance...what you can charge for lux boxes + season tickets + advertising all grow with a winner. Is it really that much of a loss in the big picture? I guess so since that's the way they operate and they can hire some really smart number crunchers, but I'd be really interested to see a realistic breakdown comp if there ever was one.


Concerns that ownership won’t pay the luxury tax aren’t really justified (IMO) when you look at the context of each situation. The Bulls really never had a team that showed enough to where it would have made a difference.

I have no doubt in my mind that they wont hesitate paying the luxury tax with this roster. The Bulls are clearly contenders.


I think concerns are justified. The owner has publicly said that he doesn't want to pay it and only would for a winner, which he clarified as meaning a team that has already made the conference finals.

In their defense, its a LOT of money. Now, maybe the Reinsdorfs are starting to realize that winning once in a while is necessary as it raises season ticket holder counts and seat values for years. Bulls ratings are way up this year too and given that JR owns part of the broadcaster, he is seeing revenue there.

I HOPE you are right. I'm not going to guarantee it.


When did the Reinsdorfs say that? Valuations of teams have gone bonkers the last decade.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#856 » by coldfish » Sun Jan 9, 2022 9:43 pm

gobullschi wrote:
coldfish wrote:
gobullschi wrote:
Concerns that ownership won’t pay the luxury tax aren’t really justified (IMO) when you look at the context of each situation. The Bulls really never had a team that showed enough to where it would have made a difference.

I have no doubt in my mind that they wont hesitate paying the luxury tax with this roster. The Bulls are clearly contenders.


I think concerns are justified. The owner has publicly said that he doesn't want to pay it and only would for a winner, which he clarified as meaning a team that has already made the conference finals.

In their defense, its a LOT of money. Now, maybe the Reinsdorfs are starting to realize that winning once in a while is necessary as it raises season ticket holder counts and seat values for years. Bulls ratings are way up this year too and given that JR owns part of the broadcaster, he is seeing revenue there.

I HOPE you are right. I'm not going to guarantee it.


When did the Reinsdorfs say that? Valuations of teams have gone bonkers the last decade.


It was over a decade ago.

I don't think that the Reinsdorfs care about team valuation. They aren't the majority owner. They serve literally hundreds of trust fund babies with annual cash payments out of profit. Cash flow is extremely important to this team.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#857 » by dougthonus » Sun Jan 9, 2022 9:59 pm

coldfish wrote:If you really want to go all in and create some potential financial problems, trade DJJ and TBJ's expiring contracts along with the Portland pick, future Bulls picks and swaps. Virtually no one is suggesting that.

Pat makes $7m next year as well as Coby. Those are the guys being bandied about in trade.

I do kind of doubt that the team does it for the reasons you state though. Trading Pat + DJJ for Grant (as an example), means lux tax next year and I suspect that the real Bulls wouldn't even do that.


Coby + Pat + expirings for Harrison Barnes if Zach doesn't get a supermax would avoid the luxury tax next year.

If they're highly adverse to the tax, the might be screwed with LaVine either way if he's eligible for supermax which seemed like a distant possibility when the season started but now seems to be at least a 50/50. Of course they don't have to pay him that if eligible, but that sure might get ugly fast if they don't.

Part of the hold up might even be that they're okay paying some tax, but if you did Pat + DJJ and Zach gets the supermax the tax is all of a sudden a lot more than you anticipated.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#858 » by coldfish » Sun Jan 9, 2022 10:04 pm

dougthonus wrote:
coldfish wrote:If you really want to go all in and create some potential financial problems, trade DJJ and TBJ's expiring contracts along with the Portland pick, future Bulls picks and swaps. Virtually no one is suggesting that.

Pat makes $7m next year as well as Coby. Those are the guys being bandied about in trade.

I do kind of doubt that the team does it for the reasons you state though. Trading Pat + DJJ for Grant (as an example), means lux tax next year and I suspect that the real Bulls wouldn't even do that.


Coby + Pat + expirings for Harrison Barnes if Zach doesn't get a supermax would avoid the luxury tax next year.

If they're highly adverse to the tax, the might be screwed with LaVine either way if he's eligible for supermax which seemed like a distant possibility when the season started but now seems to be at least a 50/50. Of course they don't have to pay him that if eligible, but that sure might get ugly fast if they don't.

Part of the hold up might even be that they're okay paying some tax, but if you did Pat + DJJ and Zach gets the supermax the tax is all of a sudden a lot more than you anticipated.


IMO, this team basically has a two year window for a variety of reasons. Tax among them. If I had to guess, I think you are right that they would be OK with a short dip into the tax but not a deep or long one. Any success this team has probably has to be done before June 2023.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#859 » by Bulls2021 » Sun Jan 9, 2022 10:17 pm

coldfish wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
coldfish wrote:If you really want to go all in and create some potential financial problems, trade DJJ and TBJ's expiring contracts along with the Portland pick, future Bulls picks and swaps. Virtually no one is suggesting that.

Pat makes $7m next year as well as Coby. Those are the guys being bandied about in trade.

I do kind of doubt that the team does it for the reasons you state though. Trading Pat + DJJ for Grant (as an example), means lux tax next year and I suspect that the real Bulls wouldn't even do that.


Coby + Pat + expirings for Harrison Barnes if Zach doesn't get a supermax would avoid the luxury tax next year.

If they're highly adverse to the tax, the might be screwed with LaVine either way if he's eligible for supermax which seemed like a distant possibility when the season started but now seems to be at least a 50/50. Of course they don't have to pay him that if eligible, but that sure might get ugly fast if they don't.

Part of the hold up might even be that they're okay paying some tax, but if you did Pat + DJJ and Zach gets the supermax the tax is all of a sudden a lot more than you anticipated.


IMO, this team basically has a two year window for a variety of reasons. Tax among them. If I had to guess, I think you are right that they would be OK with a short dip into the tax but not a deep or long one. Any success this team has probably has to be done before June 2023.

Isnt the repeater tax really the killer? That's why I think they may be OK going into the luxury tax for one year, but not a 2nd year. This is why I don't see them using the TPE this year for a guy making 3.5m~+. It will put them in the luxury tax if I'm not mistaken, and they'll almost surely be above the threshold next seasons.
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Re: Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April) 

Post#860 » by MrSparkle » Sun Jan 9, 2022 10:50 pm

IMO, the Bulls without super depth (i.e. paying luxury for a depth chart) aren't sniffing a chip. The Rockets and Nuggets had a chance when they were loaded, but when the contract extensions came up and they had to bail on some guys (Ariza, Grant/Plumlee), the regressions began.

But man, after avoiding luxury tax penalty all but 2 times since its inception, while small market teams like OKC and ORL have paid it multiple times, I don't want to hear one lick from the Reinsdorfs about needing to avoid it, especially after leading the league in attendance (not cause of the product but because it's an old devoted fanbase), lucrative sponsorships and global branding. If Michael inherits Jerry's mental problem, we're in big trouble. I don't know why AK would want to stick around if the same old BS starts happening. He might as well move on to Orlando, where the weather's nice during the season, and he can spend freely with less pressure.

As a big fan of this new AKME era, I expect at least 2 years of luxury tax while the Demar/Vuc window is open. If not, then they can screw themselves. This team will have no chance. Every other market in the NBA is willing to pay it. That includes freaking Cleveland, OKC and Minnesota. GSW, MIA, MIL and BRK just don't care. Every last man on a contending bench matters.

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