OT: TMZ - Rose being sued/accused of drugging and gang raping former GF

[johnnyvann840]

Tim Robbins- You are throwing these random numbers out , like 1 out of 1000 or other percents, just like you did in the standing and playoffs thread a while back..

But just off the top of my head, we have Derrick, Kobe, Deshawn Stevenson, Michael Beasley... throw Marv Albert in there as a celebrity involved with the NBA.. That is four players and an announcer, just thinking about it for a minute..... The NBA has less than 500 players... so 4 alone would put the number closer to 1 out of every 125 NBA players are accused of rape... I know there are others.. now that doesn't include all the false accusations and even real ones settled out of court privately that we never hear about. So your number is at the very very minimum 8x too high.

And I guarantee the number for celebs and wealthy athletes is not only larger than it is for normal people but ASTRONOMICALLY larger. Just for NBA players it is probably at least 100x more common to be accused of rape.

I'm going by the numbers people provide here (and the numbers I did in the Kings playoff race were very accurate).

So here it is: We have around 450 players to play on the league every year. You're giving m

Firse 4 names of players who were accused of rape over the past decade. That's 0.4 cases per year out of 450 or slightly less than 1/1000 per year. Over the entire country, there are around 300K sexual assaults per year. Assuming there are around 75M men in the country between the ages 18-60, that's 1/250. So, according to this back-handed math, sexual assault charges are more likely to happen in the general population than with NBA players.

I can't see how your claim of rape charges being ASTRONOMICALLY larger within the NBA player population holds any water. If your number of X100 would have been true, it would imply that 1/2.5 NBA players would be accused of rape every year. Do that make sense?

There is so much wrong with everything in your post, I won't even dignify your voodoo mathematics. Jesus, talk about "back-handed math". First of all, I'm just giving you a few cases off the top of my head -of active players out of the 450 currently on NBA rosters. I'm sure if I wanted to scour the internet for them I could find many more. We are talking about accusations, not charges or convictions.. We already discussed that there are no doubt many cases settled quietly. The shakedowns on the famous and wealthy that we never hear about. What does annual figures have to do with the likelihood of a person being accused of rape in their lifetimes?

And regarding your playoff odds and percentages from a few months ago. They were a joke and nobody took you seriously.. It even got to the point where I just thought you were trolling the thread (kind of like now) ...but you were actually serious while disregarding the real genuine odds figuring in the games teams played each other and other factors that changed the odds.

[TimRobbins]

There is so much wrong with everything in your post, I won't even dignify your voodoo mathematics. Jesus, talk about "back-handed math". First of all, I'm just giving you a few cases off the top of my head -of active players out of the 450 currently on NBA rosters. I'm sure if I wanted to scour the internet for them I could find many more. We are talking about accusations, not charges or convictions.. We already discussed that there are no doubt many cases settled quietly. The shakedowns on the famous and wealthy that we never hear about. What does annual figures have to do with the likelihood of a person being accused of rape in there lifetimes?

And regarding your playoff odds and percentages from a few months ago. They were a joke and nobody took you seriously.. It even got to the point where I just thought you were trolling the thread (kind of like now) ...but you were actually serious while disregarding the real genuine odds figuring in the games teams played each other and other factors that changed the odds.

I'm going to ask again - do you have any data regarding cases which were settled 'quietly'? Is it one case, 2 cases, 100 cases? When you're saying the "shakedowns are famous", what are you basing it on?

So if you scour the internet, how many cases do you think you'll find? Whichever way you turn it, rape accusations are extremely rare. Unfortunately, that's one exclusive club Rose now belongs to.

Also, you can easily translate an annual figure to a lifetime figure if you wanted to.

There's such a thing as the "law of large numbers". The Kings came in exactly within the range I predicted. However got it, got it and whoever didn't, didn't.

[TimRobbins]

Also, that is only counting falsifiable rapes. That does not mean that 90% of rape accusations are real. In fact, almost half of rape accusations don't even make it to court (due to insufficient evidence, accuser refusing to testify, etc.). So don't make it seem like a rape accusation automatically means a rape occurred.

I'm fine with 1%, 2%, or 8%. Nobody knows the exact number. Every study is a little different, but the consensus is that false accusations are extremely rare.

The fact that a lot of cases don't make it to trial doesn't say much. The has to do with evidence. There are far more rape cases that the victims don't even file a complaint.

[johnnyvann840]

You think wrong.

Really? Wow! Did you read the account of what happened there?

Someone mentioned Michael Irvin and Erik Williams already, and I mentioned the Duke Lacrosse team. And not that I want to get into a discussion with you about it, and frankly won't, but I put Kobe Bryant on that list as well. I did a quick google search and also came up with the following wealthy and famous people: Brian Banks (NFL), David Copperfield, Keanu Reeves and Tucker Carlson. Mark Chmura was found not guilty, who I already mentioned.

Look, this is based on 90 seconds of internet research. I'm not particularly interested in spending a lot of time on this.

So you have 8 cases in history of false accusations. Doesn't seem like a common occurrence to me. Just about every single study has shown that false rape accusations are extremely rare. Around 1%.

The FBI has it at 8% and as high as 13% when using certain criteria.. Where do you get these crazy numbers?

, the FBI Uniform Crime Report in 1996 and the United States Department of Justice in 1997 stated 8% of rape accusations in the United States were regarded as unfounded or false

while researchers and prosecutors do not agree on the exact percentage of false allegations, they generally agree on a range of 2% to 10%. Edward Greer (2000) estimates a much higher percentage of false accusations. Writing in the Law Review of Loyola of Los Angeles, Greer writes:"Despite the difficulties in measuring wrongful accusations, there is indirect data available that is highly suggestive that far more than two percent of rape accusations are false. In a significant fraction of instances, the accusers recant their charges; in others, where no formal recantation occurs but where rape may have occurred, there are good reasons to believe that the accusation must nevertheless be wrong about the identity of the assailant. One illustration of this phenomenon are the instances where DNA testing has determined that the man actually imprisoned for rape after trial was not the individual the victim claimed was the assailant.

Kanin (1994)

In 1994, Eugene J. Kanin of Purdue University investigated the incidences of false rape allegations made to the police in one small urban community between 1978 and 1987. He states that unlike those in many larger jurisdictions, this police department had the resources to "seriously record and pursue to closure all rape complaints, regardless of their merits." He further states each investigation "always involves a serious offer to polygraph the complainants and the suspects" and "the complainant must admit that no rape had occurred. She is the sole agent who can say that the rape charge is false."

The number of false rape allegations in the studied period was 45; this was 41% of the 109 total complaints filed in this period. The researchers verified, whenever possible, for all of the complainants who recanted their allegations, that their new account of the events matched the accused's version of events.

A 2006 paper by Philip N.S. Rumney in the Cambridge Law Journal offers a review of studies of false rape allegations ..Here is a list of all the studies......

A selection of findings on the prevalence of false rape allegations. Data from Rumney (2006). False reporting of rape percentages.....

-Theilade and Thomsen (1986) 1 out of 56/ 4 out of 39 1, .5% (minimum) 10% (maximum)
-New York Rape Squad (1974) n/a 2%
-Hursch and Selkin (1974) 10 out of 545 2%
-Kelly et al. (2005) 67 out of 2,643, 3% ("possible" and "probable" false allegations) 22% (recorded by police as "no-crime")
-Geis (1978) n/a 3–31% (estimates given by police)
-Smith (1989) 17 out of 447 3.8%
-U.S. Department of Justice (1997) n/a 8%
-Clark and Lewis (1977) 12 out of 116, 10.3%
-Harris and Grace (1999) 53 out of 483 / 123 out of 483, 10.9% ("false/malicious" claims) 25% (recorded by police as "no-crime")
-Lea et al. (2003) 42 out of 379, 11%
-HMCPSI/HMIC (2002) 164 out of 1,379, 11.8%
-McCahill et al. (1979) 218 out of 1,198, 18.2%
-Philadelphia police study (1968) 74 out of 370, 20%
-Chambers and Millar (1983) 44 out of 196, 22.4%
-Grace et al. (1992) 80 out of 335, 24%
-Jordan (2004) 68 out of 164 -62 out of 164, 41% ("false" claims) 38% (viewed by police as "possibly
true/possibly false")
-Kanin (1994) 45 out of 109, 41%
-Gregory and Lees (1996) 49 out of 109, 45%
-Maclean (1979) 16 out of 34, 47%
-Stewart (1981) 16 out of 18, 90%

All quite a bit higher than 1%

[TimRobbins]

I'll take the correction. Should be in the 1%-10% range. The point is that false accusations are rare.

[drbg43]

False accusations are relatively common among athletes. Compared to the 8% for general population, I would put it much higher, at like atleast 30%, directly proportional to the inordinate amount of rape accusations compared to the general public.

Tim Robbins why is it so hard to grasp this? And why do you keep asking for data on cases settled in private. NO ONE HAS THAT DATA.

[johnnyvann840]

The Kings came in exactly within the range I predicted. .

No. they did not.. would you like me to find the thread?

[TimRobbins]

The Kings came in exactly within the range I predicted. .

No. they did not.. would you like me to find the thread?

Actually, I looked it up, they came in a little worse after the post Malone firing disintegration.

In any case, My point in that thread was that it would take 35-38 wins to get the 11th pick in the draft and that's exactly what it took. A bunch of people were arguing differently.

[Flopper]

I'll take the correction. Should be in the 1%-10% range. The point is that false accusations are rare.

It wouldn't be too much of a stretch to think that the percentage of false accusations in strictly civil cases are much higher than criminal ones, simply because there's no investigation performed by law enforcement and significantly less risk in making a false claim. Not sure there are any stats to back that up though.

[mj234eva]

If the girl believes she didn't consent then she didn't consent.

I believe you are wrong, does that make you?

[TimRobbins]

I'll take the correction. Should be in the 1%-10% range. The point is that false accusations are rare.

It wouldn't be too much of a stretch to think that the percentage of false accusations in strictly civil cases are much higher than criminal ones, simply because there's no investigation performed by law enforcement and significantly less risk in making a false claim. Not sure there are any stats to back that up though.

Could be, but then again, I can't remember any such case with an NBA player. Do they all get settled before they get to court? Filing a rape accusation (civil or criminal) comes at a huge cost. These girls get publicly trashed, and they get harassed (i.e. Kobe case). It's not something they do for fun or can be taken lightly as some have suggested here. Most rape victims do not even file a complaint.

[ATRAIN53]

The issue here that she is including 3 men. Its much easily to lie about one man raping someone but three is hard to do because all it takes is one guy

Agreed, I think this is where this case will either stand up or fall apart.

1 person can remain quiet and hide a secret and stick to a story - true or false.

But 2 people cannot keep a secret forever. According to her statement there were up to 5 people in that apartment when this allegdly occured. One of those guys will talk if/when the heat gets turned up.

It''s really Allen supposedly calling her a month afterwards to discuss this that is the most compelling piece of evidence IMO. Can this be proven he called her? Can they prove what was discussed?

[jnrjr79]

There is so much wrong with everything in your post, I won't even dignify your voodoo mathematics. Jesus, talk about "back-handed math". First of all, I'm just giving you a few cases off the top of my head -of active players out of the 450 currently on NBA rosters. I'm sure if I wanted to scour the internet for them I could find many more. We are talking about accusations, not charges or convictions.. We already discussed that there are no doubt many cases settled quietly. The shakedowns on the famous and wealthy that we never hear about. What does annual figures have to do with the likelihood of a person being accused of rape in there lifetimes?

And regarding your playoff odds and percentages from a few months ago. They were a joke and nobody took you seriously.. It even got to the point where I just thought you were trolling the thread (kind of like now) ...but you were actually serious while disregarding the real genuine odds figuring in the games teams played each other and other factors that changed the odds.

I'm going to ask again - do you have any data regarding cases which were settled 'quietly'? Is it one case, 2 cases, 100 cases? When you're saying the "shakedowns are famous", what are you basing it on?

So if you scour the internet, how many cases do you think you'll find? Whichever way you turn it, rape accusations are extremely rare. Unfortunately, that's one exclusive club Rose now belongs to.

Also, you can easily translate an annual figure to a lifetime figure if you wanted to.

There's such a thing as the "law of large numbers". The Kings came in exactly within the range I predicted. However got it, got it and whoever didn't, didn't.

The most repugnant thing about these continued posts are in the way you simply convict anyone accused, based on the supposed rarity of accusation. I can't think of anything more fundamentally at odds with the American justice system and simple notions of right and wrong.

[drbg43]

It''s really Allen supposedly calling her a month afterwards to discuss this that is the most compelling piece of evidence IMO. Can this be proven he called her? Can they prove what was discussed?

Good question... I'm sure that if the call took place that they have a record of it and can identify from what phone the call was made.

But can they actually listen to a recording of the call? I doubt it.

[johnnyvann840]

It''s really Allen supposedly calling her a month afterwards to discuss this that is the most compelling piece of evidence IMO. Can this be proven he called her? Can they prove what was discussed?

Good question... I'm sure that if the call took place that they have a record of it and can identify from what phone the call was made.

But can they actually listen to a recording of the call? I doubt it.

She claims her friend heard it on speakerphone. In fact, it was this friend who urged her to call a lawyer according to the complaint.

[Peelboy]

She could have called them to her apartment with intent to have a sexual liason. And then she could have backed out of it. But they decided to force it anyway.

If it comes out that she texted or called them, then her claim is screwed. Her story is that she escaped Rose's house and that they all of a sudden showed up at her home, intruded it, and then raped her.

If it comes out that she was texting or calling these guys after her "escape" and this was easily proveable, then the plaintiff would have confronted this in the complaint. Otherwise, this would sink her story.

Ultimately, what I'm saying is this: If Rose's defense is going to be, "She called us over and said she wanted an orgy," the plaintiff's counter will be that this conversation didn't happen, not that she was too intoxicated to consent.

This looks like a pretty tough case for her to win IMO, consistent with this being her 3d attorney and the guy she ended up with having been sanctioned multiple times in the past (i.e. seems like a shyster). Add to it the time passed, lack of physical evidence, etc. Seems like in the end this is going to either a)settle because Rose won't want to answer questions about what he did/didn't do (not the rape but just generally talking about specifics in his sexual habits) or b)get tossed for lack of evidence.

However, and this is a point that IMO gets lost - whether or not it goes to trial/she wins/etc doesn't really tell you a lot about whether she was raped. She has already admitted that she was drunk/drugged. So any relatively minor inconsistencies in her story (did she call them, etc) are easily explained. The key point: she didn't want them to have sex with her and they did is something that is near impossible to prove, but lack of proof is not lack of the event. She could have invited them in, danced naked, and then changed her mind. She could have done all of that and passed out (rendering her incapable of consent). Or of course, she could be making it up. Pretty much everything we've heard is equally consistent with her making it up as it is with it happening, her being ashamed/scared and not taking it to police, and therefore there being no hard evidence so it becomes a tough case to try. No one will really know unless it can be shown that the guys didn't show up at her place.

EDIT: and all the discussion about other rape allegations typically have similar issues. Something like the Banks/Carlson story is unusual, having proof that it was made up is uncommon. Generally it's a question of a)whether it's provable and b)whether someone wants it to go away so settles. Just as settlement doesn't equate to guilt, lack of prosecution doesn't similarly equate to innocence, merely to lack of evidence.

[drbg43]

Whichever way you turn it, rape accusations are extremely rare. Unfortunately, that's one exclusive club Rose now belongs to.

Oh so this is what you're getting at, okay. It's definitely unfortunate, but this club is not so exclusive. There are dozens of other unfortunate athletes that have gone through the same thing, the unfortunate ones being those falsely accused, which I believe to be the case here, but we shall see.

[DuckIII]

I'd need to double check, but I don't think it even goes that far. I think he says that he finally came to learn that she didn't believe she'd consented. Not that he believed she didn't consent. Translation: I realize she thinks she didn't consent. But she did.

Not sure what kind of logic you're using here. If the girl believes she didn't consent then she didn't consent. Kobe said that at the time he thought she did consent. Just a game of words. Any reasonable person can understand there was no consent.

Let me break it down for you: Kobe believes she consented. He doesn't believe he raped her. And he didn't admit to raping her. He admitted, in a carefully manufactured mutually agreed upon public statement as part of the settlement, that she says she looks at it differently than he does and that she believes she didn't consent. Which changes nothing, since its the positions they both took all along. It is without question one of the most meaningless public statements accompanying the settlement of a case that you will ever read.

And your last sentence is preposterous and telling, given that none of us were there but them. If you are basing it solely on his press release, either your reading comprehension ability is atrocious, or you just decided he raped her and are subjectively misreading it to conform to your view. It doesn't matter which.

And despite saying I won't debate Bryant's guilt with you (I still don't intend to), I'll post this link for anyone interested:

http://articles.latimes.com/2004/jul/24/sports/sp-bryant24

Bryant's case, much as I don't like the man, is in my view a virtually textbook case of a woman falsely accusing a famous athlete of rape in an effort to extort money. Which, by the way, she did successfully. Not that it has anything to do with Rose's case. It doesn't. Some allegations are valid, some aren't. One being invalid says nothing about the validity of the next.

[TimRobbins]

Let me break it down for you: Kobe believes she consented. He doesn't believe he raped her. And he didn't admit to raping her. He admitted, in a carefully manufactured mutually agreed upon public statement as part of the settlement, that she says she looks at it differently than he does and that she believes she didn't consent. Which changes nothing, since its the positions they both took all along. It is without question one of the most meaningless public statements accompanying the settlement of a case that you will ever read.

And your last sentence is preposterous and telling, given that none of us were there but them. If you are basing it solely on his press release, either your reading comprehension ability is atrocious, or you just decided he raped her and are subjectively misreading it to conform to your view. It doesn't matter which.

And despite saying I won't debate Bryant's guilt with you (I still don't intend to), I'll post this link for anyone interested:

http://articles.latimes.com/2004/jul/24/sports/sp-bryant24

Bryant's case, much as I don't like the man, is in my view a virtually textbook case of a woman falsely accusing a famous athlete of rape in an effort to extort money. Which, by the way, she did successfully. Not that it has anything to do with Rose's case. It doesn't. Some allegations are valid, some aren't. One being invalid says nothing about the validity of the next.

I see nothing in this "article" that implies he was falsely accused. "The textbook of a woman falsely accusing a famous athlete"? Seriously? Base on what? her having sex with somebody else before?

You're obviously locked into believing Kobe's version. That's definitively understandable since you believe the narrative that it's common for women to falsely accuse rich/famous men of rape, even though there's ZERO evidence of that.

I guess we're done here. There obviously nothing that can sway you from that narrative. I just had no idea so many people believe that narrative.

[TimRobbins]

Oh so this is what you're getting at, okay. It's definitely unfortunate, but this club is not so exclusive. There are dozens of other unfortunate athletes that have gone through the same thing, the unfortunate ones being those falsely accused, which I believe to be the case here, but we shall see.

I don't know of dozens. I do know there are very few NBA players who were accused of rape. You can count the number of NBA players accused of rape during the past decade on one hand. It's a very exclusive club. I sincerely hope that Rose can settle this issue soon, but I'm also hoping the Bulls part ways with him as soon as possible.