Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[MGB8]

Btw, the answer to “why double or more” for Giddey is “projection for future,” but you have to acknowledge that folks can in good faith disagree about such uncertain things as projections.

[Infinity2152]

What happened in the past, pre 2nd Apron, IS IRRELEVANT. The rules changed. It is THIS YEAR’S SPENDING that tells you something, not past.

Take a look at 25 YO RJ Barrett. 21/6/5, middling 55% efficiency, but was higher than Giddey ever put up in a year the year prior at 58%. Meh on D but better than Giddey on the perimeter. 29 M AAV… is considered a bad deal now. Simons at 27 M … and no one willing to give up any assets for him. It was him plus picks for a breaking-down Jrue (though with more signs of breakdown just player for player). Things are different.

Giddey is neither a bottom feeder or pore limited guy, nor a MAX guy that you would stake your franchise’s future on as a franchise centerpiece. So that gets very hard in the 2nd apron environment to value. But saying that he looks like a x/y/z guy when he hasn’t actually put that up for an entire season… anyone can say that about any player that flashes for a stretch.

If you pay Giddey even 25 M but he reverts - sub 35% 3 pt percentages, worse off ball, can’t defend… now even that contract is crippling, where Pat’s lesser 18 M AAV is completely immovable. There is risk at even that level, and the higher it goes, the more risk. I would probably go up to 30 M AAV on a shorter deal, maybe 3 years, 4th year TO, maybe 3rd year only partially guaranteed, for Giddey… but even that could hurt a lot if he didn’t improve on his prior season averages. If the prior season average is all that you get, he should be a low 20s or below guy.

This year's spending tells you something? You're comparing a guy who averaged 8pts, 5 assts, 2 rbs to Giddey, lmao!

Answer this: This year, how many teams had cap space to sign a top FA?
Did the one team that had cap space start the off season saying they weren't signing RFA's?

Now, should I look at a season that is extremely atypical and use that as my basis? Is next year's free agency likely to be similar to this season? 20+ teams projected to have cap space.

Then you're obfuscating the argument again. So what if you or anyone thinks they don't deserve those contracts? They got them. Therefore that was their market value. We could use 5 guys that exceeded their contracts and teams were extremely happy 3 years later. So what? Doesn't change what their market value was at the time of signing. Market value is typically the amount of money a player can get in an unrestricted market. Not whether teams will regret it in the future. This market is restricted, so Giddey likely gets less than he could in an unrestricted market. Doesn't change his market value over the next 5 years.

Stop with the BS accusations… in fact projecting since you are the one arguing in bad faith. You said Giddey should be given the Max he can get if needed, then denied it and accused others of lying for accurately recalling your points.

And you again mislead here with the 8/5/2 example of Davion, at 12 M AAv, which is only 40% of 30 M. Davion is a MUCH better defender than Giddey. He has started. He is young. He had similar efficiency. Is he only 40% the player in terms of salary worth ? Not, say, 60%? Or at least 50%? Why is Giddey’s 14-15/8/7 where he is a liability on D at the perimeter (middling at the 3) with only one year of even decent 3 pt shooting (Mitchell has more and better) worth *more than double * what Davion is worth? Do you even have an argument there?

Repost where I said Giddey should get the max. You won't be able to. You say I've done it, my posts are right here. In fact, I've said repeatedly that we should get the best deal we can. Repeatedly. Over and over. I said I believed he's worth $30 mill. The max is not $30 mill. I'll say it again.

Didin't mislead at all with Davion. When you posted stats, you post what you want to post. That's as misleading, if you want to go there. I put how many minutes he played, 27 minutes is not far off starter minutes. Why do you think I put them there? To help my argument? No, to present a fair comparison. The argument isn't whether Giddey is worth double Davion Mitchell anyway. I'd have to agree that Davion Mitchell is only worth $12 mill to start with. Is that your argument? Fair market value for Davion Mitchell is $12 mill, so since you think Giddey is an inferior player, he should get that or less? You didn't post that Giddey has started 279 out of 280 games, vs 69 starts of 301 games for Mitchell, you trying to be misleading?

Is Davion Mitchell likely to start? Will Giddey? This is hilarious, you're comparing him with a guy who got $12 mill like he's viewed as better than Giddey. Do you think there's a chance in hell Giddey gets close to that? He could take the QO and get that.

Tell me what's the BS accusation. That the argument you keep pressing is not the point I was making in the first damn place? Y'all keep saying I said he should get the max, I could pull up 10 posts where I said $30 mill and would like to get a good deal. So even if I misspoke, which I don't think I did, I'd think 10 corrections would be enough to establish my position. Petty as hell. Damn sure didn't say it to you.

Here's an eleventh, I think he's worth $30 mill. I'm not discussing max, AS I SAID BEFORE, because that's not even on the table. But you don't think bring up contracts not even on the table is confusing the argument. You're right, I'm accusing you wrongly. You want to discuss what you think I said to someone else and accuse me of acting in bad faith, rather than debate the question.

I specifically asked if someone wants to repost where I said that. I don't recall saying that. That's not operating in bad faith. If I thought I said it, why would I say repost it? If you can find it, I'll say "My bad, I was wrong!". Will happily admit to being wrong. Then state my position for the 12th time. If you can't find it, you owe me an apology.

Do you have an argument why no one is the world is expecting Giddey to get a contract like Davion Mitchell or Tre Mann? Since they're great comps, but better?

Asked you how many teams had cap space this summer since you want to use this year's spending as a baseline. You dodged that excellently. Use one year of atypical data, rather than several years of data. The second apron did not appear this summer, it's been around. And teams are still re-signing players to max. This summer, nobody's getting paid but hey, wait!! No teams have money to pay them!!!

[League Circles]

My thing is, and I may very well be wrong, but I think going forward a team can indeed pay 30 mil (AAV) to their 4th starter. I'm probably a lot more comfortable than most people giving the overwhelming majority of my payroll to my starters though. Am I wrong?

That contract would rate at about 17% of the salary cap assuming 8% raises and 8% cap growth (that seems reasonable that these will be close to inline, though I believe infinity mentioned he thinks growth next year will be 7% and it will likely slow after that as most growth is based on the new TV deal and future growth is a bit higher due to the 10% per year cap that capped the initial growth, so probably he'll range from 17%-19% of the cap over the life of the contract).

If you have two max guys, say one 30% guy and one 35% guy because one is a super duper star, and one is an all-star, and then viewing Giddey as a 3B/4A type guy say the other guy better than him is a 22% cap guy, you're now at 104% of your cap with your top 4. Say you have two more MLE type guys at 8% of the cap each, and fill out the roster at mostly vet min / BAE draft picks ranging from 2%-5% and averaging about 3% you've got another 24% total on the cap. That puts your total cap space at 144%.

That would be building a really shallow team with an underpaid 5th/6th best guys and going bottom of the barrel on the rest of the roster. If you apply that to this year's numbers, it would put us at about 12M over the 2nd apron to have that roster with a tax bill of around 115M dollars if my quick math is correct. Something akin to a more expensive version of the Knicks.

I think to pay Giddey this deal, you have to view him as a clear #3 on a good team. I could see why someone would make that case, I just don't personally believe it, nor do I necessarily want to commit to the #3 guy with no #1 or #2 guy, but I certainly understand the dynamics of why you might. The consequence of not keeping Giddey is that you should do a deep rebuild, and if you were going to do that, you really hosed up by not starting it last year and not doing a bunch of other things, however, even if the best time to do something was last year, the next best time is now.

Not sure I follow everything here, but just to clarify, I think this is worth noting:

1. I consider the baseline payroll for a contender to be the tax level, not the cap (not saying you disagree)
2. I spoke of 30 mil AAV for Giddey, which means less than that in today's dollars
3. The guys better than Giddey don't necessarily have to make 30 and 35% max deals, for a few reasons. One is that due to inefficiencies in the market and the CBA, it's not that rare for great players to make less than that. A rookie deal is 4 years after all and a guy who becomes great is pretty likely to have say two great years on his rookie deal.

So in light of that, this is more how I see Giddey as a potential fraction of a top 8 ("contender") type team in next years dollars:

Tax level: 188 million. So let's say 190 million - just slightly into the tax.

Cap is at 155 million.

A 30 mil AAV deal for Giddey with 8% raises would start at under 26 mil next year.

Let's say the team also had a 35% max guy and two other guys also better than Giddey making say 32 mil each. The 35% max guy makes 54 mil.

Those 4 guys add up to 144 mil. This leaves 46 mil for the 5th through 14th guys on the roster (15 man rosters are insane IMO if you're in the tax).

#5 guy: 17 mil
#6-#8 guys: 7 mil each
#9-#14 guys: 1.3 mil each (yes, bare league minimum and absolutely fine with it)

Yes that's thinner than what most nba teams have but IMO it's by far the smartest route especially if you don't have a true superstar and need to win with a great unit.

I just see a build like this (even with an overpaid 35% max guy, not a true superstar) as being much, much more plausible and therefore appealing that trying to do a "deep rebuild" or similar conventional strategies.

The tricky part of my vision is that the top 4-5 guys need to complement each other extremely well. I think if we're careful we can do that. The next obvious step is a high quality C that actually complements our other protected core guys.

[Infinity2152]

My thing is, and I may very well be wrong, but I think going forward a team can indeed pay 30 mil (AAV) to their 4th starter. I'm probably a lot more comfortable than most people giving the overwhelming majority of my payroll to my starters though. Am I wrong?

That contract would rate at about 17% of the salary cap assuming 8% raises and 8% cap growth (that seems reasonable that these will be close to inline, though I believe infinity mentioned he thinks growth next year will be 7% and it will likely slow after that as most growth is based on the new TV deal and future growth is a bit higher due to the 10% per year cap that capped the initial growth, so probably he'll range from 17%-19% of the cap over the life of the contract).

If you have two max guys, say one 30% guy and one 35% guy because one is a super duper star, and one is an all-star, and then viewing Giddey as a 3B/4A type guy say the other guy better than him is a 22% cap guy, you're now at 104% of your cap with your top 4. Say you have two more MLE type guys at 8% of the cap each, and fill out the roster at mostly vet min / BAE draft picks ranging from 2%-5% and averaging about 3% you've got another 24% total on the cap. That puts your total cap space at 144%.

That would be building a really shallow team with an underpaid 5th/6th best guys and going bottom of the barrel on the rest of the roster. If you apply that to this year's numbers, it would put us at about 12M over the 2nd apron to have that roster with a tax bill of around 115M dollars if my quick math is correct. Something akin to a more expensive version of the Knicks.

I think to pay Giddey this deal, you have to view him as a clear #3 on a good team. I could see why someone would make that case, I just don't personally believe it, nor do I necessarily want to commit to the #3 guy with no #1 or #2 guy, but I certainly understand the dynamics of why you might. The consequence of not keeping Giddey is that you should do a deep rebuild, and if you were going to do that, you really hosed up by not starting it last year and not doing a bunch of other things, however, even if the best time to do something was last year, the next best time is now.

Not sure I follow everything here, but just to clarify, I think this is worth noting:

1. I consider the baseline payroll for a contender to be the tax level, not the cap (not saying you disagree)
2. I spoke of 30 mil AAV for Giddey, which means less than that in today's dollars
3. The guys better than Giddey don't necessarily have to make 30 and 35% max deals, for a few reasons. One is that due to inefficiencies in the market and the CBA, it's not that rare for great players to make less than that. A rookie deal is 4 years after all and a guy who becomes great is pretty likely to have say two great years on his rookie deal.

So in light of that, this is more how I see Giddey as a potential fraction of a top 8 ("contender") type team in next years dollars:

Tax level: 188 million. So let's say 190 million - just slightly into the tax.

Cap is at 155 million.

A 30 mil AAV deal for Giddey with 8% raises would start at under 26 mil next year.

Let's say the team also had a 35% max guy and two other guys also better than Giddey making say 32 mil each. The 35% max guy makes 54 mil.

Those 4 guys add up to 144 mil. This leaves 46 mil for the 5th through 14th guys on the roster (15 man rosters are insane IMO if you're in the tax).

#5 guy: 17 mil
#6-#8 guys: 7 mil each
#9-#14 guys: 1.3 mil each (yes, bare league minimum and absolutely fine with it)

Yes that's thinner than what most nba teams have but IMO it's by far the smartest route especially if you don't have a true superstar and need to win with a great unit.

I just see a build like this (even with an overpaid 35% max guy, not a true superstar) as being much, much more plausible and therefore appealing that trying to do a "deep rebuild" or similar conventional strategies.

The tricky part of my vision is that the top 4-5 guys need to complement each other extremely well. I think if we're careful we can do that. The next obvious step is a high quality C that actually complements our other protected core guys.

Like the math. Would be great if one of those top 4 is on rookie contract (Matas for instance, or Noa). Gives you a LOT more leeway. Agree tax level should be expected floor for contender, with maybe just under first apron as a ceiling in Chicago. They can afford to pay some tax if there re no apron penalties, imo.

Giddey at $30 mill and Matas on rookie scale gives you a lot of room to that $144 mill for the top 4 guys over the next few years.

[dougthonus]

1. I consider the baseline payroll for a contender to be the tax level, not the cap (not saying you disagree)

Agreed. I think you should at least spend up to the 2nd apron (maybe not over it) if you want to compete.

2. I spoke of 30 mil AAV for Giddey, which means less than that in today's dollars

The numbers I used started him at 25.6M, not 30M so I accounted for this in my calculations already.

3. The guys better than Giddey don't necessarily have to make 30 and 35% max deals, for a few reasons. One is that due to inefficiencies in the market and the CBA, it's not that rare for great players to make less than that. A rookie deal is 4 years after all and a guy who becomes great is pretty likely to have say two great years on his rookie deal.

They don't necessarily have to, on the other hand, basically saying you're barely over the vet min for 8 spots on the roster like I used doesn't necessarily have to be true.

So in light of that, this is more how I see Giddey as a potential fraction of a top 8 ("contender") type team in next years dollars:

Tax level: 188 million. So let's say 190 million - just slightly into the tax.

Cap is at 155 million.

A 30 mil AAV deal for Giddey with 8% raises would start at under 26 mil next year.

Let's say the team also had a 35% max guy and two other guys also better than Giddey making say 32 mil each. The 35% max guy makes 54 mil.

Those 4 guys add up to 144 mil. This leaves 46 mil for the 5th through 14th guys on the roster (15 man rosters are insane IMO if you're in the tax).

#5 guy: 17 mil
#6-#8 guys: 7 mil each
#9-#14 guys: 1.3 mil each (yes, bare league minimum and absolutely fine with it)

Yes that's thinner than what most nba teams have but IMO it's by far the smartest route especially if you don't have a true superstar and need to win with a great unit.

I just see a build like this (even with an overpaid 35% max guy, not a true superstar) as being much, much more plausible and therefore appealing that trying to do a "deep rebuild" or similar conventional strategies.

The tricky part of my vision is that the top 4-5 guys need to complement each other extremely well. I think if we're careful we can do that. The next obvious step is a high quality C that actually complements our other protected core guys.

I think that team would be very poor as a contender, because you now have 3 guys in sub max but greater than MLE range which I find to generally be the very bad contract range, and you'd have really, really bad depth. To say your 9-14 guys are all undrafted rookies is pretty crazy.

[Dez]

It's a business. If Giddey doesn't understand that then that's on him.

That's what I'm saying, both players and teams know this.

Nobody is going to get their feelings hurt because they didn't get what they wanted immediately.

Respectfully Dez, this is really naive. It just goes against human nature. Have you ever felt underpaid or disrespected in a job? If you did, you hopefully didn't cut off your nose to spite your face. You took the best deal you could get and immediately started plotting how and when you could get out of there.

It's not naive at all, these are negotiations where you try to get the best deal for you possible, both players and teams know this.

There's no argument you could make that Giddey is being disrespected. He was promoted and featured heavily as being a future core guy for this franchise, something he wasn't getting at OKC due to the talent they possessed. He got the role he wanted on this team that forced him to leave OKC.

You (we all did) complained about the deal that Williams got and now we have AKME finally not negotiating like a potato and actually using the leverage he has and you're not happy?

I'm a Giddey fan and believe in his ability but he gave us half a season of excellent play, there's a fair right to try not to give him 30M at this point in time.

[Infinity2152]

We're mostly arguing because we're bored and nothing is going on, lmao! Is it fair to say we all want Giddey re-signed? And even if somebody places his top value above where you place it, we all would be happy to re-sign him at the lowest price possible? I mean, we have only the vaguest of ideas where the Bulls top number is, or what's on the table.

Not trying to put words into anybody's mouth, but I think we all want the Bulls to be in the best position they can. We may differ some in what that looks like.

Whatever price he signs at, I think the earliest it would really matter is summer 2026. By then he'll have played another season, we'll have a clearer view of him. If the difference they're looking at is $5 mill/yr AAV or less, really don't see that difference hampering us next summer. Still want the best deal of course, but at some point it's micromanagement.

Really hope whatever price he signs at he doesn't look like a Pat Will overpay. Would estimate Pat is getting more than twice what I think he'd get in FA right now. Maybe 3 times. That would mean Giddey TOTALLY regresses.

[League Circles]

I think that team would be very poor as a contender, because you now have 3 guys in sub max but greater than MLE range which I find to generally be the very bad contract range, and you'd have really, really bad depth. To say your 9-14 guys are all undrafted rookies is pretty crazy.

I mean I get that the plus MLE but below max range yields plenty of reaches and bad deals, but the alternative is basically having two max guys and then a bunch of MLE deals, or 3 max and virtually nothing else. OKC just won with hartenstein and dort as the 2nd and third highest paid, and Caruso jumps up next year, so I think this is all very inexact.

A big part of my vision is that depth doesn't matter much in the playoffs. But it's not like we're on the verge of having 4 guys paid like Giddey might any time soon. It's Giddey now and Coby next summer. After that Matas still has 2 years and Essengue 3 in their rookie deals. Do you think OKC will not shuffle some of their guys in the coming years but probably remain competitive?
Maybe we get a guy via FA or trade, but IF we're gonna have Giddey as a 4th best guy, which I admit is a pretty big IF, the chances are relatively high that at least 1 or 2 of those guys are already on the roster (maybe Coby, Matas, Essengue, Okoro, Smith, Jones have some chance).

[League Circles]

One thing's for sure - this might be a great contract to front load, like we first did with Kirk Hinrich back in the day. Yeah we can maximize 2026 cap space by backloading it, but hopefully we'll be helped even more by frontloading by easing the hit when hopefully Matas and Coby+ are making big money too.

[Chi town]

Let’s say Giddey signs for 5/125.

What’s the most we can front load while keeping as much 26 cap space?

[Muzbar]

One thing's for sure - this might be a great contract to front load, like we first did with Kirk Hinrich back in the day. Yeah we can maximize 2026 cap space by backloading it, but hopefully we'll be helped even more by frontloading by easing the hit when hopefully Matas and Coby+ are making big money too.

I've been harping on about front loading his contract for a while, comparatively to Suggs deal. Front loading helps the team long term both financially and with the ability to move Giddey if need be in the future.

[kodo]

The irony of planning for the 2026 Free Agency is that best free agents that have a chance of actually changing teams (vs just signing with their current team, eg Luka) are Bulls players.

I'd rate the 2026 Free Agents as
- Zach Lavine
- Coby White
- Lillard* (talks say he'll sign with Boston before 2026 FA)
- Norm Powell
- Anfernee Simons
- Nikola Vucevic

There are eligible big names like Lebron but he's not just going to go on interviews with teams like Charlotte and hoping Charlottes gives him a max contract. He'll have a destination in mind and LA will S&T him. Just like KD was a 2026 FA but he's already been traded.

I wonder what the odds are that our big 2026 FA summer ends up being signing Zach, Coby, and Vucevic because they literally are the best players available.

[Stratmaster]

That's what I'm saying, both players and teams know this.

Nobody is going to get their feelings hurt because they didn't get what they wanted immediately.

Respectfully Dez, this is really naive. It just goes against human nature. Have you ever felt underpaid or disrespected in a job? If you did, you hopefully didn't cut off your nose to spite your face. You took the best deal you could get and immediately started plotting how and when you could get out of there.

It's not naive at all, these are negotiations where you try to get the best deal for you possible, both players and teams know this.

There's no argument you could make that Giddey is being disrespected. He was promoted and featured heavily as being a future core guy for this franchise, something he wasn't getting at OKC due to the talent they possessed. He got the role he wanted on this team that forced him to leave OKC.

You (we all did) complained about the deal that Williams got and now we have AKME finally not negotiating like a potato and actually using the leverage he has and you're not happy?

I'm a Giddey fan and believe in his ability but he gave us half a season of excellent play, there's a fair right to try not to give him 30M at this point in time.

It is naive to think contract negotiations are emotionless. None of what you said has anything to do with that.

"Not paying him 30 mil" is also very different than offering him 22 mil.

And you say he is being featured as the future core guy. But you expect to pay him like a super-sub.

[PaKii94]

Giddey will be closer to the second half player than the first half player. He's a player who needs some usage to getting rhythm and get his assist game going. It was not possible with the turmoil of the first half

[MisterRoy]

The irony of planning for the 2026 Free Agency is that best free agents that have a chance of actually changing teams (vs just signing with their current team, eg Luka) are Bulls players.

I'd rate the 2026 Free Agents as
- Zach Lavine
- Coby White
- Lillard* (talks say he'll sign with Boston before 2026 FA)
- Norm Powell
- Anfernee Simons
- Nikola Vucevic

There are eligible big names like Lebron but he's not just going to go on interviews with teams like Charlotte and hoping Charlottes gives him a max contract. He'll have a destination in mind and LA will S&T him. Just like KD was a 2026 FA but he's already been traded.

I wonder what the odds are that our big 2026 FA summer ends up being signing Zach, Coby, and Vucevic because they literally are the best players available.

Zach ain't coming back here...

[ConstableChaos]

Aside from all the contract talk.

I can't help but think what if...what if Giddey is just the guy we saw at the end of the season when we put the ball in his hands. What if he's someone who can more or less average a triple double with 20+ ppg on 50/40/80 splits?

It doesn't seem as far fetched to me as everyone else thinks it is. He did it for 20 games last year, it's not like he hasn't shown flashes in the past as well. Is it so crazy to think someone now entering their prime could find some consistency?

He's the youngest player ever to record a triple double.
One of 8 guys ever to average 22/10/10 over a 10 game span.
He was the 6th overall pick and is still just 22 years old.

Maybe the Bulls bought low on someone super talented who had a terrible year in OKC due to off the court problems and on the court fit. OKC is a team built around amazing defense and ISO scoring. He is good at neither. This Bulls team wants to play super fast and move the ball. He is good at both those things. His three point shooting has gotten better every year. Maybe he's just a guy who works really hard on his game and improves his weaknesses.

Again, not talking about his contract at all. Pay him the least amount possible but I'm really excited to see what he does next year with the keys to the team.

Well that would be a good indication, but still not a clear sign of his value. For example, Russell Westbrook averaged a triple double 4 different full seasons with some big scoring numbers. He's always been a significantly better defender than Giddey will ever be able to be. So if you're optimistic on Giddey and think his greater potential efficiency than Westbrook's may outweigh the defensive disparity such that they are even. The question remains - was Westbrook truly ever the kind of guy that you could pay the max to and win a title with?

I'm a big Westbrook fan, and I'm not so sure. For example, I don't think any team with Allen Iverson could ever win a title. MANY good but not great, flawed players are absolutely ceiling lowerers IMO.

Bulls were 7-0 when he recorded a trip double last season

[Dez]

Respectfully Dez, this is really naive. It just goes against human nature. Have you ever felt underpaid or disrespected in a job? If you did, you hopefully didn't cut off your nose to spite your face. You took the best deal you could get and immediately started plotting how and when you could get out of there.

It's not naive at all, these are negotiations where you try to get the best deal for you possible, both players and teams know this.

There's no argument you could make that Giddey is being disrespected. He was promoted and featured heavily as being a future core guy for this franchise, something he wasn't getting at OKC due to the talent they possessed. He got the role he wanted on this team that forced him to leave OKC.

You (we all did) complained about the deal that Williams got and now we have AKME finally not negotiating like a potato and actually using the leverage he has and you're not happy?

I'm a Giddey fan and believe in his ability but he gave us half a season of excellent play, there's a fair right to try not to give him 30M at this point in time.

It is naive to think contract negotiations are emotionless. None of what you said has anything to do with that.

"Not paying him 30 mil" is also very different than offering him 22 mil.

And you say he is being featured as the future core guy. But you expect to pay him like a super-sub.

Where did I say they were emotionless? I said nobody gets their feelings hurt just because they instantly didn't get what they wanted.

Again they are negotiating, you can't be critical of this when you have been the most vocal about the Williams contract and how bad it is. I also never said he should be getting 22M, I'm fine with him getting 25-27M per year or 30M declining over the deal.

[dougthonus]

Are we looking at is he a $30 mill player or do players of his caliber at his age showing what he has shown get $30 mill? I think that's an important difference. When I compare him to guys like Anfernee Simons, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, it's because like it or not, scoring guards at that level get paid around that amount despite their flaws. All those guys are flawed and they got the money. That's the going rate. Sure, you can try to get a deal. We should.

I would guess Giddey is up against the athleticism bias. You look at highly athletic players and gamble they can improve skills. You look at minus athletes and think no matter how skilled they get that it won't be enough to overcome the lack of athletic traits.

I'm not sure that's entirely fair to Giddey, but I do think that's a piece of how people view him (myself included in that group). He's got legit size, the dude is big for what he does. He'll never be an NBA caliber east / west athlete, but neither will Nikola Jokic or Luka Doncic, but like Giddey those guys have really good size and elite skills.

[dougthonus]

Let’s say Giddey signs for 5/125.

What’s the most we can front load while keeping as much 26 cap space?

The two are directly at odds, so I'm not sure what you mean, you are either front loading or maxing 26 cap space, but there's no front loading and maxing 26 cap space.

On a 5/125 though:
Full frontload next year he makes 26.8M
Full backload next year he makes 23M

The overall gap is pretty small between these, I'd sacrifice 3.8M of cap room to frontload the deal.

[sco]

Are we looking at is he a $30 mill player or do players of his caliber at his age showing what he has shown get $30 mill? I think that's an important difference. When I compare him to guys like Anfernee Simons, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, it's because like it or not, scoring guards at that level get paid around that amount despite their flaws. All those guys are flawed and they got the money. That's the going rate. Sure, you can try to get a deal. We should.

I would guess Giddey is up against the athleticism bias. You look at highly athletic players and gamble they can improve skills. You look at minus athletes and think no matter how skilled they get that it won't be enough to overcome the lack of athletic traits.

I'm not sure that's entirely fair to Giddey, but I do think that's a piece of how people view him (myself included in that group). He's got legit size, the dude is big for what he does. He'll never be an NBA caliber east / west athlete, but neither will Nikola Jokic or Luka Doncic, but like Giddey those guys have really good size and elite skills.

I think that's right. I think he's a very high BBIQ guy and his improvements will come from creating space through recognition of opportunities and craftiness, which he has. I think he's stronger than he's given credit for and has an elite sense of where the ball is going for rebounds. The wildcard is whether he can continue to be an above average 3pt shooter.