Coronavirus

[coldfish]

The US probably has countless cases already. They are only testing people who are showing severe symptoms. I wouldn't doubt if the number is 500,000. At some point in the next month or so, the US will be losing thousands of people per day. Don't forget, we have 5 or 6 times as many people as Spain and Italy.

I think that the official tracking of infections values are indeed very inaccurate because many countries stopped tracking all the infections. This includes USA and Finland. Finland is at 10 000 infections for sure and not 300~ or what ever which is the official number.

Better ways to track each country's COVID-19 spread at the moment is either tracking critical/serious condition patients or fatality numbers. Tracking fatalities can never be accurate either due to each country's average age and the level of medical care differences compared to the rest of the countries but it's way better than checking the reported infections of each country now.

To get the infections number close you would multiply the death count by 100-400. If every 1-4 person die out of 100 now around the world as it seems this would make the real infection number quite close to what it really is per country.

Ok, hold your horses on balded part. Finland resumed testing again, although not everyone is getting tested. Same goes with most countries. Finland might have 10 000 infections, BUT that amount isnt comparable AT all on other countries. They might have 20-30 times the counted numbers, more or less. Or then again not. Thing is we dont know, no one does. Cultural differences can make a lot of difference with the spreading, how people react to restrictions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/health/coronavirus-statistics-undetected.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

It really is a huge variable but its coming out more and more that the vast majority of people who get this have virtually no symptoms. That's good and bad. It means that its likely far more prevalent and its also far less virulent (like 0.2% fatality).

We need to get more data but unfortunately, we don't have the technology nor resources to really test. We can't even test for antibodies at this point so if you had it and got over it, we wouldn't know.

[Andi Obst]

As someone who works in a school, I'm getting a bit frustrated. No matter what precautions we try to take, and how much we enforce hygiene with the students, it's a hotbed for germs. When we have (where I am) bans of 500 or more/100 or more if inside, it feels pretty stupid that I'm going to work every day and being in contact with so many people. Some kids are coughing/sneezing/otherwise sick, also doesn't help that I had a kid spit on my face last week, lol.

It's not an easy situation logistically to consider shutting schools down, but for my sake, and for the sake of every other school employee, I feel like it's definitely not in our best interest.

I hear you. The school I work in closed last week (all schools in Germany are closed now), but it took them until two students got positive test results to make that decision. That's...too late. I'll probably get tested in the next couple of days.

[dougthonus]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/health/coronavirus-statistics-undetected.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

It really is a huge variable but its coming out more and more that the vast majority of people who get this have virtually no symptoms. That's good and bad. It means that its likely far more prevalent and its also far less virulent (like 0.2% fatality).

We need to get more data but unfortunately, we don't have the technology nor resources to really test. We can't even test for antibodies at this point so if you had it and got over it, we wouldn't know.

Hard to say, we know in Italy that when it got bad, it got bad enough that it overran their medical system and they had to choose people to stop treating and simply let die that may have recovered with treatment.

That would seem to point to the idea that even if a lot of people are asymptomatic, that it spreads badly enough in enough people that it's still a huge health crisis.

[Mech Engineer]

The inability to do mass testing is the most critical failure at this point. Doctors/Health Care Workers are scared and this is hurting everyone. Testing is not only important physically but also psychologically. And, this is so dumb and stupid that they can't put all their resources into this.

[dougthonus]

The inability to do mass testing is the most critical failure at this point. Doctors/Health Care Workers are scared and this is hurting everyone. Testing is not only important physically but also psychologically. And, this is so dumb and stupid that they can't put all their resources into this.

The time factor I think is just difficult to massively ramp up. I agree that the outlook would be far different if we found out tomorrow that there are really 500k cases in the US already and that most are just not severe. It would change a lot of attitudes for better or worse.

[Mech Engineer]

The inability to do mass testing is the most critical failure at this point. Doctors/Health Care Workers are scared and this is hurting everyone. Testing is not only important physically but also psychologically. And, this is so dumb and stupid that they can't put all their resources into this.

The time factor I think is just difficult to massively ramp up. I agree that the outlook would be far different if we found out tomorrow that there are really 500k cases in the US already and that most are just not severe. would change a lot of attitudes for better or worse.

The whole strategy can change if they figure out testing. I can't even fathom the mental toll on so many people especially without therapists able to help.

If mobile testing centers are ramped up...it will help so many caregivers(symptomatic or asymptomatic) get tested to make sure of helping the elderly without worrying about infecting them.

[coldfish]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/health/coronavirus-statistics-undetected.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

It really is a huge variable but its coming out more and more that the vast majority of people who get this have virtually no symptoms. That's good and bad. It means that its likely far more prevalent and its also far less virulent (like 0.2% fatality).

We need to get more data but unfortunately, we don't have the technology nor resources to really test. We can't even test for antibodies at this point so if you had it and got over it, we wouldn't know.

Hard to say, we know in Italy that when it got bad, it got bad enough that it overran their medical system and they had to choose people to stop treating and simply let die that may have recovered with treatment.

That would seem to point to the idea that even if a lot of people are asymptomatic, that it spreads badly enough in enough people that it's still a huge health crisis.

I generally try to put a qualifier on my posts on the CA board because when I post something optimistic, I always get called out. Something to this effect:

I do NOT want to downplay this as a "its just the flu" thing though. First off, that's twice as bad as the flu and no one is immune to it. Its entirely possible for all 330 million americans to get this in short order, which would completely overwhelm the system causing the mortality rate to skyrocket. Even if it didn't, losing 0.2% of the population over 1 year is 660,000 extra deaths. We lost 400,000 people in WWII and 60,000 in Vietnam over the course of years

[TallDude]

The inability to do mass testing is the most critical failure at this point. Doctors/Health Care Workers are scared and this is hurting everyone. Testing is not only important physically but also psychologically. And, this is so dumb and stupid that they can't put all their resources into this.

The time factor I think is just difficult to massively ramp up. I agree that the outlook would be far different if we found out tomorrow that there are really 500k cases in the US already and that most are just not severe. would change a lot of attitudes for better or worse.

The whole strategy can change if they figure out testing. I can't even fathom the mental toll on so many people especially without therapists able to help.

If mobile testing centers are ramped up...it will help so many caregivers(symptomatic or asymptomatic) get tested to make sure of helping the elderly without worrying about infecting them.

Economist here and also medical people are really consern about USA. In Europe we did poorly so far. We have perhaps 6 months ahead or somebody find a cure. But Spain, germany etc. Are doing badly right now. States are not prepaded at all. We was not ready fo this. This will kill hundreds of thoudends Americans or even more if cure is not ready for summertime. Probably Trump try to make a deal with that? Well here in Finland they said today that they can do cure for Summer. Let`s see and wait. Atleast we have 5 star medical staff. Our goverment make this worse. Luckily we have a president who have a lot of brains and heart.

[TheStig]

I always thought the notion that they'd all pack up and leave was silly. If that were the case, they'd all buy an island together for only rich people and the top .1% would live there with very little government and taxes. Nothing would stop them from also having houses around the world and traveling their frequently.

i mean, california has a 13% top income tax bracket. new york's is 9%. texas and florida? ZERO. and yet, wealthy individuals do not flood to texas and florida. and such a move would hardly be the inconvenience/culture shock that moving to another NATION would be

Are you sure that wealthy individuals don't flood to texas and Florida for their state of legal residence? I sure know some who have. Oh they still spend plenty of time in places like Illinois, but their legal residence is in a tax haven.

Earlier you mentioned that there are lots of countries with higher incomes and higher taxes than the US. Am I correct in stating that they are almost exclusively very, very small countries population wise? If so, doesn't that kind of help prove Doug's point?

I think the problem here is the climate. LA and SF are flooded with rich people and have higher taxes than we do. I don't see Silicon Valley or Hollywood moving to Texas.

[League Circles]

i mean, california has a 13% top income tax bracket. new york's is 9%. texas and florida? ZERO. and yet, wealthy individuals do not flood to texas and florida. and such a move would hardly be the inconvenience/culture shock that moving to another NATION would be

Are you sure that wealthy individuals don't flood to texas and Florida for their state of legal residence? I sure know some who have. Oh they still spend plenty of time in places like Illinois, but their legal residence is in a tax haven.

Earlier you mentioned that there are lots of countries with higher incomes and higher taxes than the US. Am I correct in stating that they are almost exclusively very, very small countries population wise? If so, doesn't that kind of help prove Doug's point?

I think the problem here is the climate. LA and SF are flooded with rich people and have higher taxes than we do. I don't see Silicon Valley or Hollywood moving to Texas.

That's irrelevant for several reasons.

First, we have no data at hand. I'd sure be willing to bet that plenty of people who own serious equity in silicon valley companies or hollywood productions do in fact have as their state of legal residence FL, TX or Arizona. We simply don't really know who has the real money. We perceive it to be silicon valley, why? Because there are a bunch of data scientists making a few hundred grand a year there? We perceive it to be Hollywood, why? Cause a few dozen ultra rich movie stars are photographed shopping on rodeo drive?

True wealthy people have properties all over and can probably hide their state of legal residence rather easily, especially once their kids are out of the house.

I'd revise my guesses with real data on where exactly is the state of residence of people who have, say, over 10 or 20 million dollars in assets.

[League Circles]

We have a society where, once you pass a certain threshold of wealth, you can put your life on auto pilot. Just buy tons of treasury bonds and have your state of legal residence be FK, TX or AZ, and you're set in perpetuity. I think that's what so many people are unaware of. We borrow the assets of these people to fund our excessive government and wonder why they keep getting richer.

[Habs72]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china

[TheStig]

Are you sure that wealthy individuals don't flood to texas and Florida for their state of legal residence? I sure know some who have. Oh they still spend plenty of time in places like Illinois, but their legal residence is in a tax haven.

Earlier you mentioned that there are lots of countries with higher incomes and higher taxes than the US. Am I correct in stating that they are almost exclusively very, very small countries population wise? If so, doesn't that kind of help prove Doug's point?

I think the problem here is the climate. LA and SF are flooded with rich people and have higher taxes than we do. I don't see Silicon Valley or Hollywood moving to Texas.

That's irrelevant for several reasons.

First, we have no data at hand. I'd sure be willing to bet that plenty of people who own serious equity in silicon valley companies or hollywood productions do in fact have as their state of legal residence FL, TX or Arizona. We simply don't really know who has the real money. We perceive it to be silicon valley, why? Because there are a bunch of data scientists making a few hundred grand a year there? We perceive it to be Hollywood, why? Cause a few dozen ultra rich movie stars are photographed shopping on rodeo drive?

True wealthy people have properties all over and can probably hide their state of legal residence rather easily, especially once their kids are out of the house.

I'd revise my guesses with real data on where exactly is the state of residence of people who have, say, over 10 or 20 million dollars in assets.

How do you know they don't? They need to pay taxes where they primarily reside. So if Jeff Bezos is in Amazon HQ most days, he needs to pay Washington state taxes. There would be serious implications if he didn't.

[2018C3]

One area where wealthy people pay significant amount of taxes is on property tax. I have a freind who is well off, and he pays about $42,000 a year in property taxes on one house, and about $10,000 on another plot of undeveloped land. Both of the yards are a similar size to mine, yet my property taxes are much lower because my house is pretty average.

His buisnesses cumulatively employ about 20 people of which most are full time, who also each pay taxes. He has a few different corporations that operate under one roof. 25 something years ago are take home salaries were similar, but his buisness has really taken off with hard work, and he has also given up lot to acheive that status. His wife left him after 12 years of marriage because he wasn't around as much as he should have been and worked 7 day weeks.

He is a 2nd generation American who's parents came to this country in there younger years without the ability to speak English and literaly no assets. His family always spoke a 2nd langauge in the home, and my freind could not speak english himself when he first enterered the public schools systems. I met him in school, and he is my only childhood freind I still have contact with.

I have another freind / past co-worker who came here in his early 20's from Poland. He flew into detroit, and landed a job as a janitor in a high school. I met him in college, and at the time he was taking just one class a symester. By the time he was 35 he was able to put himself through college and I helped him get a job where I was working at the time. He now advanced past me, and makes about $80,000 a year. He left the company to take a higher postion working a night shift in IT network support and continued his education while in his 40's. after about 4 years working the night shift he was finaly switched to days, and now has a Ideal job and a nice lifestyle to support his family.

Hard work can pay off for those willing to work.

[League Circles]

I think the problem here is the climate. LA and SF are flooded with rich people and have higher taxes than we do. I don't see Silicon Valley or Hollywood moving to Texas.

That's irrelevant for several reasons.

First, we have no data at hand. I'd sure be willing to bet that plenty of people who own serious equity in silicon valley companies or hollywood productions do in fact have as their state of legal residence FL, TX or Arizona. We simply don't really know who has the real money. We perceive it to be silicon valley, why? Because there are a bunch of data scientists making a few hundred grand a year there? We perceive it to be Hollywood, why? Cause a few dozen ultra rich movie stars are photographed shopping on rodeo drive?

True wealthy people have properties all over and can probably hide their state of legal residence rather easily, especially once their kids are out of the house.

I'd revise my guesses with real data on where exactly is the state of residence of people who have, say, over 10 or 20 million dollars in assets.

How do you know they don't? They need to pay taxes where they primarily reside. So if Jeff Bezos is in Amazon HQ most days, he needs to pay Washington state taxes. There would be serious implications if he didn't.

I think cheating is extremely widespread and extremely difficult to enforce if you're not one of a handful of ultra famous billionaires like Bezos or Buffett. I mean obviously there are lots of rich people in CA, just saying, I'd guess there are countless millionaires and people with over 10 million who no one really even knows is rich whose primary residence is a no state income tax state. Money can buy you anonymity if you want it, as opposed to wanting to run a big company.

[League Circles]

One area where wealthy people pay significant amount of taxes is on property tax. I have a freind who is well off, and he pays about $42,000 a year in property taxes on one house, and about $10,000 on another plot of undeveloped land. Both of the yards are a similar size to mine, yet my property taxes are much lower because my house is pretty average.

His buisnesses cumulatively employ about 20 people of which most are full time, who also each pay taxes. He has a few different corporations that operate under one roof. 25 something years ago are take home salaries were similar, but his buisness has really taken off with hard work, and he has also given up lot to acheive that status. His wife left him after 12 years of marriage because he wasn't around as much as he should have been,

Good points, though FWIW there are also plenty of very wealthy people who live in rather normal houses.

[Nikola]

I'm surprised the medical staff hasn't scheduled a Corona test in Italy for the players.

[johnnyvann840]

We have a society where, once you pass a certain threshold of wealth, you can put your life on auto pilot. Just buy tons of treasury bonds and have your state of legal residence be FK, TX or AZ, and you're set in perpetuity. I think that's what so many people are unaware of. We borrow the assets of these people to fund our excessive government and wonder why they keep getting richer.

Why AZ?

[dice]

i mean, california has a 13% top income tax bracket. new york's is 9%. texas and florida? ZERO. and yet, wealthy individuals do not flood to texas and florida. and such a move would hardly be the inconvenience/culture shock that moving to another NATION would be

Wealthy individuals often are accumulating their wealth without paying taxes through equity, very few super wealthy individuals are building wealth through earning wages. Also, I think a huge percentage of them do exactly what you are suggesting.

that's obviously false, or the states would not maintain those rates

[2018C3]

I have one more success story to share. My brother in law owns a sewer company that lands manipulable contracts for sewage lines. His dad started the company after working several years as a laborer himself without college. What people don't understand is these laborers make lots of money. At even a entry level they are bringing in well over $200 a day. (Standing down in the ditches with a shovel). After several years of labor these guys become union workers, and make about $90,000 to $100,000 a year. They do work very hard, but also get several months off each winter and retire with pensions.

College is not the only route to success, as hard work is equally successful. One of his employees used to be a psychologist in Mexico, but after he came to the USA found he could make more money working the sewers, Another one of his employees is using the funds earned to eventually become a Catholic priest.

Sometimes my brother in law gives me odd jobs on weekends to drive equipment around, and do miscellaneous errands. I have got to met several of his sewage line workers, and once you talk them and listen to the stories you find they are amazing successful family orientated people with interesting life experiences. All the guys like most to brag about there kids, and tell stories about how well they are doing.

The past psychologist has a daughter in med school, and his son is now a regional manager for home depot.